This Big 12 Writer doesn't think that the SEC member distributions,...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

while larger per member than the Big 12, is all that big of a deal. From time to time we hear rumblings and grumblings of Oklahoma wanting to leave the Big 12 for the SEC (or really anywhere but the Big 12). But this Writer is trying to make a case that the Big 12 is in pretty good financial shape and because of that, it isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.

His basic point seems to be that teams like Texas and Oklahoma are making more money where they are right now, than they would be if they left and joined another conference, even the SEC. He may be right but he seems to forget that the other 8 teams in the Big 12 family aren't as fortunate. Of course a case could be made that if the conference did dissolve that none of the other teams would be able to make as much (in terms of revenue distributions) as they do now. So I guess it is a case of all of them needing each other to survive. I'm sure Big 12 fans have no desire to see the demise of their conference.

If you think the Big 12 isn't financially viable and that the conference is on the verge of collapse, I've got news for you. USA Today is reporting the conference pulled down over $313 million from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. And, as USA Today points out, it is the second straight year the conference has increased its revenue by more than $40 million and the Big 12 has nearly doubled its revenue since 2012. I don't know about you, but that sure doesn't feel like the Big 12 is about to collapse.

Yes, the Big 12's $313 million is a far cry from the SEC's $584 million, but that's not the full story. The SEC has 14 members, and distributed $40.4 million to each member. And yes again, $40 million is significantly more than the $29 million the Big 12 paid its members. However, bear with me, the SEC's numbers include third tier media rights. So it is not an apples-to-apples comparison as the Big 12 is the only power five conference whose distribution does not include third tier rights.

When you account for the Big 12's third tier rights, the gap between the SEC and Big 12 is significantly smaller. Texas makes around $15 million off of the Longhorn Network, which actually catapults them in front of all SEC members at roughly $44 million. Not everyone in the Big 12 has their own TV network though, and it's hard to know exactly how much every school is making in third tier rights, but it is thought that OU brings around $8 million, while schools like West Virginia and Oklahoma State are thought to be around $6 million. That brings their totals to $37 million and $35 million, respectively. That's still short of the SEC, but it should be very competitive with the Big Ten and ACC.

http://landgrantgauntlet.com/2017/04/28/the-big-12-hauled-in-more-than-313-million-last-fiscal-year/

The Big 12 is going to have to expand to get back to at least 12 members and have a CCG if they hope to have a more competitive shot at placing a team in the CFP's, but who do they add? I doubt that there is a single existing P-5 team that would ever consider leaving their conference to help rescue the Big 12. Who does that leave? Who are the most likely candidates? Colorado State, BYU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF?

Or does Oklahoma finally tire of all of the lack of progress in expansion talks, the constant manipulation by Texas, give up on the Big 12 and talk to the financially stable SEC about bolting from the Big 12 and bringing another current Big 12 member with them?

[Inhogswetrust]

 TAMU, Mizzou, Nebraska and CU say Hi (or should that be Bye) to that writer. That writer is forgetting it is NOT ONLY about payouts per school. I will admit that is a very big part of it but not the ONLY part of it. Also he mentions Texas and I think most would bet that the longhorn network is going away in it's current form at some point. Even with that only tejas makes more than ANY SEC member.

[GuvHog]

This, to me, is the straw that will break the camel's back eventually - how long will Texas and Oklahoma put up with the fact the other eight conference teams bring very little to the table?

The LongWhore Network is swirling downward and even Texas sees this if for no other reason than the changing way in which fans watch sports these days will kill their subscription model just as it has ESPN's.  At some point (coming soon quite likely), Texas and Oklahoma will jettison the anchors better known as Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Ok State, TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech because their lust for more cash will be impossible to overcome.

I disagree. I believe Texas and Oklahoma will soon part ways. Texas can't go to any other conference because they aren't willing to give up their Longhorn Network as part of a deal. That was the sticking point with the Pac 12 deal and still is. I see Texas eventually going independent in football just as Notre Dame is doing. I still think Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will eventually end up in the SEC.

[Inhogswetrust]

This, to me, is the straw that will break the camel's back eventually - how long will Texas and Oklahoma put up with the fact the other eight conference teams bring very little to the table?

The LongWhore Network is swirling downward and even Texas sees this if for no other reason than the changing way in which fans watch sports these days will kill their subscription model just as it has ESPN's.  At some point (coming soon quite likely), Texas and Oklahoma will jettison the anchors better known as Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Ok State, TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech because their lust for more cash will be impossible to overcome.

Not to mention what would the SEC payout per team be IF tejas and OU joined the SEC......................

[Inhogswetrust]

I disagree. I believe Texas and Oklahoma will soon part ways. Texas can't go to any other conference because they aren't willing to give up their Longhorn Network as part of a deal. That was the sticking point with the Pac 12 deal and still is. I see Texas eventually going independent in football just as Notre Dame is doing. I still think Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will eventually end up in the SEC.

Except you are posting as IF you know the longhorn network will always be there for them in the same or similar capacity. It might simply disappear at some point. IF it does then it would not be a sticking point for negotiations with other conferences. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Except you are posting as IF you know the longhorn network will always be there for them in the same or similar capacity. It might simply disappear at some point. IF it does then it would not be a sticking point for negotiations with other conferences. 

ESPN has appeared to be trimming their expenses in some areas and they are well aware of how big of a loser the LHN really is, so when it comes time to renew that deal, I wouldn't be surprised if they choose not to do so.

[rljjr]

More money is more money. The writer is delusional if he doesn't think OU would bolt in a NY Minute if it could find a way.

[Hawghiggs]

 OU and Texas like to be the Big Fish in the small pond, and the rest of the Big 12 will do anything to stay relevant. If the Big 12 dissolves then those programs won't find another conference to go to. So they will make whatever deal that needs to be made to keep the Big 12 together. I look for the Big 12 to go back to a unequal revenue sharing system in their next media deal.


Another thing that may happen soon. Is the removal of Baylor. The issue with doing this is that the media contract with the Big 12 is for 10 members, So the Big 12 will have to replace them quickly. Look for the Big 12 to expand with either Colorado state, Houston, or New Mexico. The kicker with this is that the Big 12 could pay the chosen program a reduced share for the remainder of the current contract.  Then the Big 12 could either split the remainder of that share or use it to build a network much like what the ACC.

Championship game. The Big 12 will have one this upcoming season. So they could add another million or two per program next season.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Wow - another 14 years though?  I bet ESPN finds a way out of this tar baby ASAP.... 

http://thebiglead.com/2011/08/08/longhorn-network-contract-between-texas-and-espn-revealed-big-12-future-not-bright/

Has the guy from ESPN who signed off on the 20 year (20 years?) deal with Texas been canned yet? Lots of people on here whine about a 6 year contract and though I really like Bret Bielema as a coach (though I am somewhat unhappy with his results so far) I also think that 6 years is a bit too long of an initial contract. Same goes for what ESPN did with Texas on the LHN. 20 frikin years? Someone (or whoever ran the analysis of what this deal should be worth) at ESPN who put that deal together ought to be fired, summarily executed and then burned at the stake.

[Hawghiggs]

Has the guy from ESPN who signed off on the 20 year (20 years?) deal with Texas been canned yet? Lots of people on here whine about a 6 year contract and though I really like Bret Bielema as a coach (though I am somewhat unhappy with his results so far) I also think that 6 years is a bit too long of an initial contract. Same goes for what ESPN did with Texas on the LHN. 20 frikin years? Someone (or whoever ran the analysis of what this deal should be worth) at ESPN who put that deal together ought to be fired, summarily executed and then burned at the stake.

The reason ESPN signed such a deal was that ESPN though that they had found a loophole when it came to high school football. That was supposed to be the bulk of the content on the LHN. When everyone else cried foul and it blew up in their face is when it became a bad deal. I still don't understand why the LHN doesn't purchase content. You would think that UTEP would love to air all of their games also.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The reason ESPN signed such a deal was that ESPN though that they had found a loophole when it came to high school football. That was supposed to be the bulk of the content on the LHN. When everyone else cried foul and it blew up in their face is when it became a bad deal. I still don't understand why the LHN doesn't purchase content. You would think that UTEP would love to air all of their games also.

That's kind of a major thing to have not done their due-dilligence on before the deal was signed. They should have been certain. Look at what it has cost them. You never assume when the profitability of the deal is contingent on something like that.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

More money is more money. The writer is delusional if he doesn't think OU would bolt in a NY Minute if it could find a way.

I used to think that Oklahoma would bolt for the SEC if they had a chance and a few years back I think they actually did consider heading to the Pac 12 with Texas and others, but I think that may have changed in recent years even though we continue to hear grumblings from them about the Big 12.

If (and it may be a big "if" going forward) they can continue to make money like they did this past season, why not stay in the Big 12 where the road to a conference championship is certainly less difficult than it would be in the SEC? Granted, there is greater stability in the SEC but if they got off their collective tails over there and really pushed for expansion they could easily get back to a 12 team conference with 2 divisions and a more true CCG.

And no one in that conference wants to see Oklahoma leave the conference and create greater instability. If they did it could signal the demise of the Big 12.

[Inhogswetrust]

I used to think that Oklahoma would bolt for the SEC if they had a chance and a few years back I think they actually did consider heading to the Pac 12 with Texas and others, but I think that may have changed in recent years even though we continue to hear grumblings from them about the Big 12.

If (and it may be a big "if" going forward) they can continue to make money like they did this past season, why not stay in the Big 12 where the road to a conference championship is certainly less difficult than it would be in the SEC? Granted, there is greater stability in the SEC but if they got off their collective tails over there and really pushed for expansion they could easily get back to a 12 team conference with 2 divisions and a more true CCG.

And no one in that conference wants to see Oklahoma leave the conference and create greater instability. If they did it could signal the demise of the Big 12.

NEVER underestimate that stability thing.......................It's probably number one or two of the top main reasons some of if not all of the previous members that left the little 12 did so.

[Dwillhog66]

OU and Texas like to be the Big Fish in the small pond, and the rest of the Big 12 will do anything to stay relevant. If the Big 12 dissolves then those programs won't find another conference to go to. So they will make whatever deal that needs to be made to keep the Big 12 together. I look for the Big 12 to go back to a unequal revenue sharing system in their next media deal.


Another thing that may happen soon. Is the removal of Baylor. The issue with doing this is that the media contract with the Big 12 is for 10 members, So the Big 12 will have to replace them quickly. Look for the Big 12 to expand with either Colorado state, Houston, or New Mexico. The kicker with this is that the Big 12 could pay the chosen program a reduced share for the remainder of the current contract.  Then the Big 12 could either split the remainder of that share or use it to build a network much like what the ACC.

Championship game. The Big 12 will have one this upcoming season. So they could add another million or two per program next season.

My best friend played for UH and is a fairly big booster for them. He's very good friends with the AD. The AD told him the Big 12 will never let UH in. UH is hoping the ACC wants to get into Texas in the future and that is the only hope they have to get into a P5.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

NEVER underestimate that stability thing.......................It's probably number one or two of the top main reasons some of if not all of the previous members that left the little 12 did so.

That may have been some of it but I think more of it had to do with varying reasons. Not having more of a voice in the direction of the conference probably had quite a lot to do with it because before these schools defected, the conference had stability.

For Colorado, they had been seeing themselves as a better fit with the Pac 10/Pac 12 for a long, long time. They felt that their profile as a school fit the west coast schools more than that of the Big Eight/Big 12.

For Nebraska, it seemed like getting away from Texas and landing in a more prestigious conference where they would have a place at the table, was their primary consideration.

Interestingly enough, in this article it talks about how the Big Eight wanted to add the entire SWC making it the Big 16 instead of the Big 12, but Texas nixed that idea. Think about that for a moment, if not for Texas the old Big Eight would have become the first 16 team super conference that was able to negotiate a more powerful t.v. package and how might that have affected the overall stability of that conference not to mention what it might have done for schools like TCU, Rice, Houston and SMU?

Then there was the arrival of the LHN. Just too much Texas influence.

http://www.cornnation.com/2016/5/25/11773190/nebraska-huskers-football-big-eight-12-conference-jon-wefald-book-kansas-state

Missouri's defection from the Big 12 was all about stability for the long run given that the Big 12 had already lost Nebraska and Colorado and would soon lose A&M as well.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/missouri-leaving-big-12-for-sec-110611

For A&M it appeared to be more of the same. The defection of other Big 12 member schools (largely because of Texas) and then Texas starting their own LHN in partnership with ESPN and IMG, which did nothing for the rest of the conference.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6912807/texas-aggies-tell-big-12-seek-new-conference

So a lot of it was because of Texas but it was also about being somewhere that they had a voice in their conference and where there was long term stability.

[12247]

Texas should and Oklahoma does have a decent chance of going undefeated annually in the Big 12.  They have to recruit, coach and play like a big league team to do so but they have that ability if not that desire currently.

That said, why move to any other P5 conference and then risk a larger chance of a lessor record. The Big 12 has the best opportunity of placing a team in the top 4 annually but they have to go undefeated to do so and take the likelihood of failing to meet requirements away by losing a game.  If you could pick a P5 conference to assist you in going undefeated, you would have to choose the Big 12.  In any given season, there is usually only 1 or 2 teams in the Big 12 capable of beating a serious top 4 contender. 

Oklahoma would be just another decent team in any other P5 conference and would win the conference on occasion but not 3 of every 4 years.  Texas gets their way and Oklahoma gets their championships so why move on?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Texas should and Oklahoma does have a decent chance of going undefeated annually in the Big 12.  They have to recruit, coach and play like a big league team to do so but they have that ability if not that desire currently.

That said, why move to any other P5 conference and then risk a larger chance of a lessor record. The Big 12 has the best opportunity of placing a team in the top 4 annually but they have to go undefeated to do so and take the likelihood of failing to meet requirements away by losing a game.  If you could pick a P5 conference to assist you in going undefeated, you would have to choose the Big 12.  In any given season, there is usually only 1 or 2 teams in the Big 12 capable of beating a serious top 4 contender. 

Oklahoma would be just another decent team in any other P5 conference and would win the conference on occasion but not 3 of every 4 years.  Texas gets their way and Oklahoma gets their championships so why move on?

I'm having a pretty good chuckle at their expense (the Big 12) right now but it really is unfortunate for the remaining members of that conference (not named Oklahoma and Texas), that when they went from the Big 8 to the Big 12, that they allowed Texas (of the old SWC) to dictate to them who the Big 8 would invite to join the conference.

In retrospect, though Texas was the big fish they really wanted to land, the Big 8 should have invited all of the others anyway (Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas A&M, as well as TCU, SMU, Houston and Rice) and just waited to see what Texas would have done in facing a situation where they would be left out. Texas might not have liked it, but they would have eventually come along and joined when they saw that they were being told to pound sand.

Had the Big 8 done that from the beginning so that Texas got the message that they weren't going to dictate terms to the rest of the conference, they might not have lost Nebraska, Missouri, A&M and perhaps even Colorado, though I am not sure but what Colorado might not have eventually left anyway since they considered themselves a better fit for the West Coast conference. Colorado could have been easily replaced in the strongest conference (financially) in the country at that time and who knows, Arkansas might have chosen to come back and make that 16th member if Colorado left.

But that is what happens when you allow Texas to dictate terms and now, they have a problem...thanks to the Shorthorns.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I'm having a pretty good chuckle at their expense (the Big 12) right now but it really is unfortunate for the remaining members of that conference (not named Oklahoma and Texas), that when they went from the Big 8 to the Big 12, that they allowed Texas (of the old SWC) to dictate to them who the Big 8 would invite to join the conference.

In retrospect, though Texas was the big fish they really wanted to land, the Big 8 should have invited all of the others anyway (Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas A&M, as well as TCU, SMU, Houston and Rice) and just waited to see what Texas would have done in facing a situation where they would be left out. Texas might not have liked it, but they would have eventually come along and joined when they saw that they were being told to pound sand.

Had the Big 8 done that from the beginning so that Texas got the message that they weren't going to dictate terms to the rest of the conference, they might not have lost Nebraska, Missouri, A&M and perhaps even Colorado, though I am not sure but what Colorado might not have eventually left anyway since they considered themselves a better fit for the West Coast conference. Colorado could have been easily replaced in the strongest conference (financially) in the country at that time and who knows, Arkansas might have chosen to come back and make that 16th member if Colorado left.

But that is what happens when you allow Texas to dictate terms and now, they have a problem...thanks to the Shorthorns.

No doubt Texas' hubris has had it's own reward; however, not necessarily in a good way to say the least.

[LZH]

No doubt Texas' hubris has had it's own reward; however, not necessarily in a good way to say the least.

Texas football reminds me somewhat of an aging rock band who has long since bought into their own hype. Their diehard fans from way back when are going to shell out the money to keep them afloat but the younger crowd has moved on. The burnt orange heavyweights should be giving thanks everyday that Sumlin hasn't lived up to his billing.

[Hogtimes]

MuskogeeHogfan, the news I am hearing out of Oklahoma  (I subscribe to the Tulsa World ) is that that David Boren and OU have their sights set on the Big10 conference.   Boren recently said not being an AAU member would be no problem.  It seems that KU and OU maybe a package deal.  You have probably heard the same.

However, nothing is likely to happen for another 4 or 5 years when some of the  TV contracts come up for renewal and the Big12 GOR nears expiration.   That is when the next realignment will likely take place.  By then the Longhorn Network will only have 5-6 years left and I would think ESPN  would work a deal with Texas to  terminate it.   

The question is which conference makes the first move.  There is  talk that the  Big may  go after KU, OU  and maybe  Texas and one other....Notre Dame, Missouri?.....

Then there is speculation on what will Larry Scott and the PAC do.   They might  make another run after Big12 teams.  If Texas is free of the LHN then  it might work. 

The next 3-5  years may well determine the future of college footall.    This is when we may finally see Four P5 conferences.   With each conference champ in the four team playoff.  No more selection committee.  In other words the actual split from the G5 schools.

[Dominicanhog]

But that is what happens when you allow Texas to dictate terms and now, they have a problem...thanks to the Shorthorns.

Musky, we've discussed this before and I know we have a differing opinion, but I think your statement above, is why OU bolts when given the chance..

Just reading the comments by Boren a short time ago, it didn't appear he was much concerned with OSU (a sticking point for other conferences).. but as you've said before, a lot of Oklahoma politics would have to play out ...

As for expansion, I don't think Texas or OU wants it, and they have the final say..   Administrators look long term and I can't see how any school that had options would want to be under UT's thumb...

[12247]

Muskogee, I believe you are correct in your thinking about Texas and the beginning of the Big 12.  I doubt Texas was ready then to go it alone.  They might be willing to go it alone today and that might be the best place for them.

[Dominicanhog]

MuskogeeHogfan, the news I am hearing out of Oklahoma  (I subscribe to the Tulsa World among other papers) is that that David Boren and OU have their sights set on the Big10 conference.   Boren recently said not being an AAU member would be no problem.  It seems that KU and OU maybe a package deal.  You have probably heard the same.

However, nothing is likely to happen for another 4 or 5 years when some of the  TV contracts come up for renewal and the Big12 GOR nears expiration.   That is when the next realignment will likely take place.  By then the Longhorn Network will only have 5-6 years left and I would think ESPN  would work a deal with Texas to  terminate it.   

The question is which conference makes the first move.  There is  talk that the  Big may  go after KU, OU  and maybe  Texas and one other....Notre Dame, Missouri?.....

There is a lot of strong talk coming out of the SEC talking heads that the SEC will go hard  after both OU and OSU.

Then there is speculation on what will Larry Scott and the PAC do.   They might  make another run after Big12 teams.  If Texas is free of the LHN then  it might work.  The LHN is what ended the last attempt in 2010.  They could take Texas, Texas Tech, OU and OSU....plus maybe KU and KSU.

The next 3-5  years may well determine the future of college footall.  There will likely be a high stakes poker game among the BIG10,  SEC and PAC, and the Big12 is the only game in town.  This is when we may finally see Four P5 conferences.   With each conference champ in the four team playoff.  No more selection committee.  In other words the actual split from the G5 schools.

Heard about OU to B1G but not SEC taking both OU and OSU.. just not sure that would happen... also, don't see any major conference taking all the Texas schools.. you'd be diluting your payouts for schools that don't produce revenue...

I think OU and KU go B1G, they'll hold their nose on OU, just for the sake of money.. Texas in PAC and the rest go to    smaller conferences... if that did happen, the SEC might take OSU

[Hawghiggs]

 Boren won't be the one making this decision. The man is 76 years old and is recovering from heart surgery. OU isn't going anywhere for at least 5 or 6 years.

[Hogtimes]

Boren won't be the one making this decision. The man is 76 years old and is recovering from heart surgery. OU isn't going anywhere for at least 5 or 6 years.
[/quote

Agree it will be 4-5  years

[Hoggish1]

That writer is trying real hard to say there are no sour grapes over in the Big 12.  Real hard...

[Dominicanhog]

Boren won't be the one making this decision. The man is 76 years old and is recovering from heart surgery. OU isn't going anywhere for at least 5 or 6 years.

I agree he won't be there, but I'd think for him to have expressed himself as such, means he'd had conversations with POB's at some point.. 

and I agree with Hogtimes.. a bit sooner than 6 years.. as soon as the current contract is up...

[hawgon]

The Bug 12 may not last, but it will only go away when Texas and/or OU have had enough.  All of the Big 12 schools that had options have already left.  The only ones still around besides OU and Texas are the ones that are looking at Conference USA type status if the Big 12 blows up.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Musky, we've discussed this before and I know we have a differing opinion, but I think your statement above, is why OU bolts when given the chance..

Just reading the comments by Boren a short time ago, it didn't appear he was much concerned with OSU (a sticking point for other conferences).. but as you've said before, a lot of Oklahoma politics would have to play out ...

As for expansion, I don't think Texas or OU wants it, and they have the final say..   Administrators look long term and I can't see how any school that had options would want to be under UT's thumb...

As more and more time goes by I am beginning to think that there won't be a move to another conference. I know that I have predicted the demise of the Big 12 repeatedly, but there may actually be more to lose for everyone involved the more that I think about it.

ESPN made a bad deal with Texas and really, they might be better off at some point to try to reach some kind of negotiated settlement with Texas to shut down the LHN earlier than the established contract term. That would leave Texas with a nice settlement in a lump sum (or paid out over a number of years) but they would need to remain tied to a conference for their conference revenue share. Until they start winning at a high level again they don't have much a product to promote (little value).

Oklahoma would probably like to remain at the top of a conference where they have more say about the direction of the conference and they don't get that if they leave for any of the other 4 P-5 conferences. Geographically they aren't a good fit for the Big Ten, the Pac 12 or the ACC. That leaves the SEC and it isn't known for certain whether or not the SEC would even entertain bringing one or two of the Big 12 teams into the SEC.

Texas and Oklahoma would be better off staying where they are and using their considerable influence in the conference to press for expansion now, rather than later, though they may choose to wait until their t.v. deal gets closer to the end of its current term. But even if that is the case, the groundwork needs to begin now so that when they renegotiate, they do so with an expanded number of conference members.

There have been rumors of trying to bring Nebraska back into the fold, but as long as Texas remains in a position of power I can't see that happening. However, the elimination of the LHN might go a long way towards healing old wounds and settling any existing grudges.

The shortest route to expansion might be extending invitations to Houston, Colorado State, Cincinnati and one of Memphis or UCF. That gets them to 14 teams and two 7 team divisions and the ability to produce a legit CCG. Heck if they just added Houston and Colorado State that gets them back to an actual 12, but without adding teams in the East they aren't helping W. Virginia who geographically, sits on an island by itself. I'm sure the WVa AD has mentioned more than once what it costs them in terms of travel expense to be a part of the Big 12 and adding members in the East would help solidify WVa's partnership in the Big 12.

In any case, I have come to believe that the best possible scenario for all of the current Big 12 would be to continue to exist through expansion. That doesn't mean that is how it will all play out, but I believe that is the best situation for everyone especially the other 8 of the 10 in the Big 12.

[BearsBisonsBoars]

I disagree. I believe Texas and Oklahoma will soon part ways. Texas can't go to any other conference because they aren't willing to give up their Longhorn Network as part of a deal. That was the sticking point with the Pac 12 deal and still is. I see Texas eventually going independent in football just as Notre Dame is doing. I still think Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will eventually end up in the SEC.

I'd prefer that they bring Kansas with them rather than Okie Lite, but I know that's not going to happen for a variety of reasons.

[Dominicanhog]

As more and more time goes by I am beginning to think that there won't be a move to another conference. I know that I have predicted the demise of the Big 12 repeatedly, but there may actually be more to lose for everyone involved the more that I think about it.

ESPN made a bad deal with Texas and really, they might be better off at some point to try to reach some kind of negotiated settlement with Texas to shut down the LHN earlier than the established contract term. That would leave Texas with a nice settlement in a lump sum (or paid out over a number of years) but they would need to remain tied to a conference for their conference revenue share. Until they start winning at a high level again they don't have much a product to promote (little value).

Oklahoma would probably like to remain at the top of a conference where they have more say about the direction of the conference and they don't get that if they leave for any of the other 4 P-5 conferences. Geographically they aren't a good fit for the Big Ten, the Pac 12 or the ACC. That leaves the SEC and it isn't known for certain whether or not the SEC would even entertain bringing one or two of the Big 12 teams into the SEC.

Texas and Oklahoma would be better off staying where they are and using their considerable influence in the conference to press for expansion now, rather than later, though they may choose to wait until their t.v. deal gets closer to the end of its current term. But even if that is the case, the groundwork needs to begin now so that when they renegotiate, they do so with an expanded number of conference members.

There have been rumors of trying to bring Nebraska back into the fold, but as long as Texas remains in a position of power I can't see that happening. However, the elimination of the LHN might go a long way towards healing old wounds and settling any existing grudges.

The shortest route to expansion might be extending invitations to Houston, Colorado State, Cincinnati and one of Memphis or UCF. That gets them to 14 teams and two 7 team divisions and the ability to produce a legit CCG. Heck if they just added Houston and Colorado State that gets them back to an actual 12, but without adding teams in the East they aren't helping W. Virginia who geographically, sits on an island by itself. I'm sure the WVa AD has mentioned more than once what it costs them in terms of travel expense to be a part of the Big 12 and adding members in the East would help solidify WVa's partnership in the Big 12.

In any case, I have come to believe that the best possible scenario for all of the current Big 12 would be to continue to exist through expansion. That doesn't mean that is how it will all play out, but I believe that is the best situation for everyone especially the other 8 of the 10 in the Big 12.

so you think the payout per team would be better with a championship game and new TV contract?  None of those schools would bring any incremental revenue.. their payouts could actually be less per team.  That's why they didn't add last summer..imo.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

so you think the payout per team would be better with a championship game and new TV contract?  None of those schools would bring any incremental revenue.. their payouts could actually be less per team.  That's why they didn't add last summer..imo.

I understand, but I think that they also understand that they don't have the marketing value of the Big Ten or the SEC so they have to lower their sights to some degree. Question is, does being able to remain in control in your own P-5 Conference and having an easier road to the play offs outweigh the opportunity for maybe 15-20% more in revenue each year? Financially, I don't think that Oklahoma or Texas are in any trouble and the other 8 are just hoping they get to maintain their P-5 conference. The biggest contribution that adding those other teams would make is in stability, something it appears that they don't have now.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Fixed an excerpt from the article . . .

When you account for the Big 12's third tier rights, the gap between the SEC and Big 12 is significantly smaller. Texas makes around $15 million off of the Longhorn Network, which actually catapults them in front of all SEC members at roughly $44 million. Not everyone No one else in the Big 12 has their own TV network though, and it's hard to know exactly how much every school is making in third tier rights, but it is thought that OU brings around $8 million, while schools like West Virginia and Oklahoma State are thought to be around $6 million. That brings their totals to $37 million and $35 million, respectively. That's still short of the SEC, but it should be very competitive with the Big Ten and ACC.

http://landgrantgauntlet.com/2017/04/28/the-big-12-hauled-in-more-than-313-million-last-fiscal-year/

[Inhogswetrust]

I'd prefer that they bring Kansas with them rather than Okie Lite, but I know that's not going to happen for a variety of reasons.

They wouldn't take Kansas. They prefer a school that actually has a football team.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

so you think the payout per team would be better with a championship game and new TV contract?  None of those schools would bring any incremental revenue.. their payouts could actually be less per team.  That's why they didn't add last summer..imo.

I think they would benefit in terms of increased media markets by adding a Colorado, Ohio and Florida market to the conference. Adding Houston might or might not add much since they already have Texas, but adding a major metro area might increase interest in that area. Not sure. Memphis might not draw a tremendous amount of interest right now but you have to wonder if that interest might increase if Memphis became part of a P-5 conference. Now how much any combination of those additions might increase their marketability as a conference, I'm not sure but I know that they have to do something to get back to at least 12 teams and their options to do that are limited.

On another note with regard to potential SEC expansion, Auburn is making it their mission to trade with Missouri and get moved to the SEC East. That would probably have happened anyway if the SEC were going to add anyone from the Big 12 to the West. But what does the SEC do if they add 2 teams from the Big 12? Who else goes East? Alabama?

[LZH]

Is there a specific reason why West Virginia wasn't offered a spot in the ACC or SEC?

[Hawghiggs]

Is there a specific reason why West Virginia wasn't offered a spot in the ACC or SEC?

Piss poor academics.

[jvanhorn]

They wouldn't take Kansas. They prefer a school that actually has a football team.

Kansas might not have a football team as such, but they have a basketball program that is bigger and better than the sec and big 12 put together, with the exception of Kentucky.

[Mike_e]

Follow the money.

The problem is though that no one really knows where the money is going to come from if the cord-cutters numbers keep growing.  Until this settles out I don't see any movement.

OU can keep talking smack all they like but I have a hunch that right now it's only to keep texas in line.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

That might be one factor the ACC considered, but the SEC?

If I remember correctly, W. Virginia had some of the worst academics of all P-5 schools at one time. What they are now I don't know. Not just bad academics, but not even close to being regionally relevant to the Big 12. So what does that tell you about the Big 12 adding them to their conference? Desperation in trying to keep their conference.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

http://www.cornnation.com/2016/5/25/11773190/nebraska-huskers-football-big-eight-12-conference-jon-wefald-book-kansas-state

It's not a flattering image, for sure.  As I recall, when Nebraska went to the Big 10(er, 12) there was some concern about the quality of their academics that (for a time anyway) seemed to hold up the Cornhusker's move.  In the end though, that concern was either prioritized behind the concern for money and/or conference expansion (or both). 

The West Virginia move to the Big 12 reeked of desperation from both West Virginia and the Big 12.  West Virginia's options for being in a P5 conference were approaching zero and the Big 12 needed anyone it could get at the time.

According to this story, the Nebraska move was driven by a former University of Texas President not using his influence (as a conference partner) to help Nebraska retain their AAU status and other things and capped off by the LHN. It was just about getting away from Texas.

Wefald recalled (former UT President) Berdahl harmed Nebraska after leaving Texas. Berdahl was the president of the Association of American Universities (AAU) in 2011 when Nebraska was voted out of the prestigious group. Wefald said Berdahl could have used his influence to sway a close vote.

"The truth is," Wefald wrote, "no outside academic leader has dented Nebraska's athletic and academic standing over the years more than Bob Berdahl.

[NaturalStateReb]

while larger per member than the Big 12, is all that big of a deal. From time to time we hear rumblings and grumblings of Oklahoma wanting to leave the Big 12 for the SEC (or really anywhere but the Big 12). But this Writer is trying to make a case that the Big 12 is in pretty good financial shape and because of that, it isn't going anywhere, anytime soon.

His basic point seems to be that teams like Texas and Oklahoma are making more money where they are right now, than they would be if they left and joined another conference, even the SEC. He may be right but he seems to forget that the other 8 teams in the Big 12 family aren't as fortunate. Of course a case could be made that if the conference did dissolve that none of the other teams would be able to make as much (in terms of revenue distributions) as they do now. So I guess it is a case of all of them needing each other to survive. I'm sure Big 12 fans have no desire to see the demise of their conference.

If you think the Big 12 isn't financially viable and that the conference is on the verge of collapse, I've got news for you. USA Today is reporting the conference pulled down over $313 million from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. And, as USA Today points out, it is the second straight year the conference has increased its revenue by more than $40 million and the Big 12 has nearly doubled its revenue since 2012. I don't know about you, but that sure doesn't feel like the Big 12 is about to collapse.

Yes, the Big 12's $313 million is a far cry from the SEC's $584 million, but that's not the full story. The SEC has 14 members, and distributed $40.4 million to each member. And yes again, $40 million is significantly more than the $29 million the Big 12 paid its members. However, bear with me, the SEC's numbers include third tier media rights. So it is not an apples-to-apples comparison as the Big 12 is the only power five conference whose distribution does not include third tier rights.

When you account for the Big 12's third tier rights, the gap between the SEC and Big 12 is significantly smaller. Texas makes around $15 million off of the Longhorn Network, which actually catapults them in front of all SEC members at roughly $44 million. Not everyone in the Big 12 has their own TV network though, and it's hard to know exactly how much every school is making in third tier rights, but it is thought that OU brings around $8 million, while schools like West Virginia and Oklahoma State are thought to be around $6 million. That brings their totals to $37 million and $35 million, respectively. That's still short of the SEC, but it should be very competitive with the Big Ten and ACC.

http://landgrantgauntlet.com/2017/04/28/the-big-12-hauled-in-more-than-313-million-last-fiscal-year/

The Big 12 is going to have to expand to get back to at least 12 members and have a CCG if they hope to have a more competitive shot at placing a team in the CFP's, but who do they add? I doubt that there is a single existing P-5 team that would ever consider leaving their conference to help rescue the Big 12. Who does that leave? Who are the most likely candidates? Colorado State, BYU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF?

Or does Oklahoma finally tire of all of the lack of progress in expansion talks, the constant manipulation by Texas, give up on the Big 12 and talk to the financially stable SEC about bolting from the Big 12 and bringing another current Big 12 member with them?

I'd say the following about it:

1.  Texas is an outlier, at least for now.  Not everyone in the Big 12 is raking in lots of Tier 3 money; no one's raking in as much as Texas.  Eventually though, that Texas Tier 3 money isn't going to be there, either--LHN is a massive flop for ESPN, and there's no way they'll re-up for that kind of money.  The good news for Texas is that their ESPN/LHN deal doesn't expire until something like 2030. 

2.  The networks artificially pumped up the price for the Big 12 to keep it from collapsing back in 2011.  With cord-cutting, there's no way they'll do that again.  The networks kept the Big 12's payout the same, even though Missouri and A&M left, and Colorado and Nebraska had already left.  The other conferences might have been undervalued, but it's clear that the Big 12 is overvalued.  They're not going to clear that kind of money in 2024, especially if ESPN and Fox are trying to find money instead of spend it.  The Big 10's contract is up at the same time--if you're Fox or ESPN, and you've got to choose between spending on the Big 10 or the Big 12, that's not a very hard choice. 

3.  The Tier 3 numbers for OU, WVU, and OSU probably aren't $8-$6 million.  BTW, If WVU and OSU can get $6 million just in Tier 3, the argument that they're not a good SEC add because the money's not there probably isn't true.

4.  The Big 12's problems aren't all financial.  There are some seriously damaged, seriously dysfunctional relationships there.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

That's a good read, MuskogeeHogFan.  In that some article was this jewel too:

Wouldn't that have been an interesting twist?  I'm not trying to rehash this here, but Missouri really brought very little to the SEC (except new TV markets) from an athletic perspective.  And now, given their implosion over racial issues, it seems likely the quality of their academics is declining too. 

Moving back toward the OP now, I can't see how the Big 12 can stand pat constructed as they are at present especially the closer we get to the expiration of the current TV contracts.  If the Big 12 waits until those contracts expire and then try to address their conference membership, they may find the decline of TV revenue so significant that West Virginia as a conference member is no longer viable. 

In a perfect world, we'd be moving to four 16 team conferences anyway, and clearly the Big 12 is the conference that would be easiest to dissolve and redistribute the teams.  This will be interesting as we move forward. 

I agree and said as much above with regard to their expansion process (if one actually exists). There is a need for them to expand back to a minimum of 12 teams with two divisions and a legit conference championship game and they need to do that in a proactive manner so as to be prepared when the renegotiation of t.v. contracts occurs.

The conference as a whole (and ESPN as well) would be better off if ESPN went to Texas and engaged in a negotiation and settlement with Texas to end the LHN now, rather than later. It isn't a loser for Texas, but it is a loser for ESPN and the existence of that network seems to grate on existing members and perhaps any schools that might entertain the notion of joining the Big 12.

In fact, had Texas not been "Texas" and had just been a better conference member (instead of being so self serving) they might have retained Nebraska, Missouri and A&M. Had they been able to do that, they might have only lost Colorado, replaced them with TCU, would never have had to invite W. Virginia and would still have a pretty solid 12 team conference.

The shame is really on Oklahoma and the rest of the Big 12 members who ignored the advice of former Big 12 Commissioner Kevin Weiberg (1998-2007) when he tried to convince the Big 12 that they needed to come together and start a Big 12 network.

Before Weiberg helped the Big Ten launch the Big Ten Network, and before Weiberg helped the Pac-10/12 launch the Pac-12 Network, he tried to talk his Big 12 constituents into a Big 12 Network. Tried to tell them that a conference television channel would produce financial bounty and exposure galore.

Weiberg never could sell it to enough Big 12 schools. The rich — Texas, OU, Nebraska and Texas A&M — figured they were better off keeping their options open. Figured they could do better on their own, with school-specific media-rights deals.

The Big 12 lost most of the glue that held a conference together. Texas A&M and Nebraska grew tired of Texas' power. Missouri no longer trusted Oklahoma. Colorado jumped on the first life raft that floated by. The Big 12 became Dangerous Liaisons; no one trusted anyone.

http://newsok.com/article/5338213

Had they listened to him they wouldn't be in the position that they are in now and, the Longhorn Network never exists. The big dogs of the Big 12 are the ones who put themselves in this position and they probably deserve whatever they wind up getting...a bigger but weaker conference in getting back to 12 members, or the eventual implosion of the Big 12.

[DeltaBoy]

Texas never does what smart and I see the game 12 dying a slow painful death.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Texas with a fine chianti....

Gave you some more interesting information that goes back to before the start up of the LHN. It offers better perspective as to why the B12 is in the position that they are now. Check near the bottom of Pg 1.

[Russ22]

The Big 12 distributions are not equal. WVU and TCU have had reduced distributions over the last 3 years. In addition, the tv contract allowed the big 12 to continue to receive revenue based on an inventory of 12 teams instead of 10. In the next contract, the big 12 will get a reduced rights (or the same to account for growth), but the networks will remember that the conference choose NOT to expand and offer more tv inventory so that each school get more dollars.

The big 12 is little better than the AAC at this point, and they are going to get a new tv deal that reflects that IF the conference exists at all.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The Big 12 distributions are not equal. WVU and TCU have had reduced distributions over the last 3 years. In addition, the tv contract allowed the big 12 to continue to receive revenue based on an inventory of 12 teams instead of 10. In the next contract, the big 12 will get a reduced rights (or the same to account for growth), but the networks will remember that the conference choose NOT to expand and offer more tv inventory so that each school get more dollars.

The big 12 is little better than the AAC at this point, and they are going to get a new tv deal that reflects that IF the conference exists at all.

True, but the conference members are making pretty solid money right now and this year, the new members received full shares.

This from the original post.

If you think the Big 12 isn't financially viable and that the conference is on the verge of collapse, I've got news for you. USA Today is reporting the conference pulled down over $313 million from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. And, as USA Today points out, it is the second straight year the conference has increased its revenue by more than $40 million and the Big 12 has nearly doubled its revenue since 2012. I don't know about you, but that sure doesn't feel like the Big 12 is about to collapse.

Yes, the Big 12's $313 million is a far cry from the SEC's $584 million, but that's not the full story. The SEC has 14 members, and distributed $40.4 million to each member. And yes again, $40 million is significantly more than the $29 million the Big 12 paid its members. However, bear with me, the SEC's numbers include third tier media rights. So it is not an apples-to-apples comparison as the Big 12 is the only power five conference whose distribution does not include third tier rights.

When you account for the Big 12's third tier rights, the gap between the SEC and Big 12 is significantly smaller. Texas makes around $15 million off of the Longhorn Network, which actually catapults them in front of all SEC members at roughly $44 million. Not everyone in the Big 12 has their own TV network though, and it's hard to know exactly how much every school is making in third tier rights, but it is thought that OU brings around $8 million, while schools like West Virginia and Oklahoma State are thought to be around $6 million. That brings their totals to $37 million and $35 million, respectively. That's still short of the SEC, but it should be very competitive with the Big Ten and ACC.

http://landgrantgauntlet.com/2017/04/28/the-big-12-hauled-in-more-than-313-million-last-fiscal-year/

[Hawgboy64]

Texas selfish ways killed the SWC and one day they will kill the Big 12 and any other conference they join. IMO

[Hawgboy64]

If you said something, you'll never be heard over your avatar photo.

She makes me seem smarter than I will ever be.....

[Murr]

Is there a specific reason why West Virginia wasn't offered a spot in the ACC or SEC?

Facilities . Fan behavior. Better options in terms of adding a member with better academics and markets .  Mizzou doubled the number of AAU schools in the SEC after that round of expansion .  Their two new markets of St. Louis and Kansas City coupled with Houston , San Antonio and Dallas made a new network very profitable and opened up existing tv contracts for renegotiation .
Rumor has it the sec gave WVU a list of things to improve in order to meet sec standards and Oliver Luck went straight to work to meet those. The big 12 money is also helping