In addition to UK, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, who makes the NCAAT?

[Fayettechill14]

My guess is that at least one of these teams isn't getting in.

GEORGIA: 16-9 (7-6 SEC) RPI 30
  Resume Strength: Good SOS
  Resume Weakness: Fading down the stretch, plus no marquee wins

LSU: 18-7 (7-5 SEC) RPI 48
   Resume Strength: Good overall record, marquee road win at West Virginia
   Resume Weakness: Three awful losses (Mizzou, Auburn, Miss State)

TEXAS A&M: 17-7 (8-4 SEC) RPI 44
  Resume Strength: No bad losses
  Resume Weakness: Weak schedule, no marquee wins

Georgia's RPI was 30 today, but lost at home to South Carolina. Swept by South Carolina, and also lost games against Auburn and Georgia Tech (3-11 in ACC). Remaining games include Kentucky and at Ole Miss. Looking like 19-11 (10-8 SEC) will be record entering SEC tournament.

LSU's RPI is 48th entering tonight, and they play at Texas A&M (8-4 SEC) who beat them in Baton Rouge. Tigers have marquee win at #23 West Virginia, but have inexplicable losses to Mizzou, Auburn, and Mississippi State. Still have to go to Arkansas along with tough game tonight against the Aggies.

Texas A&M can sweep LSU tonight, and road games against Arkansas and Florida are the only tough remaining games. Very weak non-conference schedule and no marquee wins, but unlike the above teams, they have no bad losses either.

Who gets in?

[Danny J]

After all the games shake out tonight I will be anxious to see how far UGA drops in the RPI. That was a terrible home loss to both Auburn and USCe. I say right now it looks like UK and Ark are probably locks. I think aTm is right there with Ole Miss and I think LSU is behind both. I also think UGA has some work to do but right now I think they are a bubble team. When I think about it LSU and UGA may be in the same boat.

[Cresthog]

Does USC beating UGA help us if we beat USC on the road? Or does that somehow weaken the UGA win?

Sometimes I just don't care to get it.

[nextlevel]

The SEC is going to set up a hunger games for LSU, aggy, and UGA.

[nextlevel]

Does USC beating UGA help us if we beat USC on the road? Or does that somehow weaken the UGA win?

Sometimes I just don't care to get it.

Depends on how both teams finish out.

Sweeping Carolina would say more about the @ISU loss than it will about the @UGA win since Carolina beat ISU on a neutral court.

[latrops]

As of right now, looking like a 5 bid league with UGA is on their way out.  Could definitely look very different in just a week, though.  UGA needs to start a hot streak immediately...the last 4 days have been awful for them.

[Adam Stokes]

I'm close to saying all three, though none of the 3 is still completely possible.  I think GA can still pull it out.  I think whoever loses tonights game between A&M and LSU will also have an uphill climb. 

I put LSU gets left out, if they win tonight I would switch that to A&M.  Here is LSU's remaining schedule from tonight on: @A&M, vs Florida, @Auburn, vs OM, vs Tenn, and @Arkansas.  I'm not convinced there is a game in there that they can't lose, and they likely need 4-2 to make the tournament.  A&M also needs to go 4-2 to make the tournament, their remaining schedule has two relative gimmes but need to go 2-2 in the other their other 4.

[Fayettechill14]

Does USC beating UGA help us if we beat USC on the road? Or does that somehow weaken the UGA win?

Sometimes I just don't care to get it.

By the season's end, South Carolina helps us more in RPI because we play them twice, so whatever they do counts double.

HOWEVER, the point of RPI really isn't to rank. It's about grouping. You want "top 50 wins" or "top 100 wins." In that sense, Georgia falling out of the top 50 means we lose a top 50 road win. That sucks.

So there you go. Two sides to the same coin.

[HF#1]

LSU and UGA will make nice NIT teams.  Both are gonna fade down the stretch.

[-Blu]

SEC will get 5.

KY, Ark, TAM, LSU, Ole Miss.

[Cresthog]

Won't Carolina be down 2 players for us? Or did they only suspend them tonight?

[Atlhogfan1]

Won't Carolina be down 2 players for us? Or did they only suspend them tonight?

Till the SECT. Only one plays a decent amount. 
6-9 F avgs 19.5 min, 6 pts, 3.6 reb and a block 
Another shorthanded SEC team right now. 

[Cresthog]

Till the SECT. Only one plays a decent amount. 
6-9 F avgs 19.5 min, 6 pts, 3.6 reb and a block 
Another shorthanded SEC team right now. 

I remember how tired they got at the Bud.

Hopefully we can push the pace on them and get some payback for last year.

[Big Nasty 34]

I think LSU at least is a tourney team. They may not have resume though.

[Fayettechill14]

Texas A&M beats LSU 68-62 in College Station. Aggies now 9-4 in SEC play. The battle for second place is essentially down to Arkansas (9-3), Texas A&M (9-4), and Ole Miss (8-4). Ole Miss owns the tiebreaker over Texas A&M. LSU and Georgia have fallen to 7-6 and will need strong finishes to stay in the field. My guess is that least one will not make the tournament.

[z1on]

LSU is so poorly coached.

[Hogfaniam]

A&M just got out of playin game territory.

LSU just fell into it or 1st four out. 

Georgia is now right with LSU.

Ole Miss is just above A&M.

[PonderinHog]

I think Georgia officially crapped the bed tonight.

[alaback]

After all the games shake out tonight I will be anxious to see how far UGA drops in the RPI. That was a terrible home loss to both Auburn and USCe. I say right now it looks like UK and Ark are probably locks. I think aTm is right there with Ole Miss and I think LSU is behind both. I also think UGA has some work to do but right now I think they are a bubble team. When I think about it LSU and UGA may be in the same boat.

Danny, you've been high on aTm for a while now, but I'm sorry I just don't see it.  They don't have any bad losses, but they don't have any good wins either.  LSU has more good wins, but they also have some bad losses.  I just think the committee values good wins over bad losses when it comes to bubble teams. 

aTm has 2 Top 50 wins, both against LSU and who knows how long those will remain Top 50 wins.  I guess it depends on what LSU does from here on out.  They are 2-5 against the Top 50 and 6-7 against the Top 100.  That's just a crappy resume when you compare it against other bubble teams.  Their only opportunity for a signature win is at Arkansas which I doubt they can win. 

LSU on the other hand is 4-3 against Top 50 and 8-5 against the Top 100.  LSU also won at West Virginia, at Ole Miss, at Florida, and at Tennessee.  aTm doesn't have anything remotely close to that. 

I see UGA and LSU as shaky possibilities right now.  Unless they both get it together, we might be looking at a 3 bid league again.  At most two get in and the SEC will have 5 in.  They can all play their way in or out with aTm having a much tougher road to climb.

[Cresthog]

We should beat A&M and LSU at home.

Neither looked very impressive to me at all last night.

Amazing how people complain about our offense, despite shooting badly for that stretch, we really do create some excellent shots consistently. Some of these other SEC teams offenses are just AWFUL.

[RacinRazorback]

LSU is so poorly coached.

I couldn't agree more. LSU has the talent to be a top 25 team. Glad JJ is in Tigger land and not here.

[12247]

Looks like a typical SEC situation, 3 in and praying for maybe one more.  Maybe we can get some help from some outside teams going in the tub big time.  I suspect many of our teams will be in the group whereby they just throw the names in a hat and draw out the last 4 or 5 as they are all just filler.

The 10 teams filler teams that don't get in will all scream foul like we've done the past 2 years.

[Danny J]

Danny, you've been high on aTm for a while now, but I'm sorry I just don't see it.  They don't have any bad losses, but they don't have any good wins either.  LSU has more good wins, but they also have some bad losses.  I just think the committee values good wins over bad losses when it comes to bubble teams. 

aTm has 2 Top 50 wins, both against LSU and who knows how long those will remain Top 50 wins.  I guess it depends on what LSU does from here on out.  They are 2-5 against the Top 50 and 6-7 against the Top 100.  That's just a crappy resume when you compare it against other bubble teams.  Their only opportunity for a signature win is at Arkansas which I doubt they can win. 

LSU on the other hand is 4-3 against Top 50 and 8-5 against the Top 100.  LSU also won at West Virginia, at Ole Miss, at Florida, and at Tennessee.  aTm doesn't have anything remotely close to that. 

I see UGA and LSU as shaky possibilities right now.  Unless they both get it together, we might be looking at a 3 bid league again.  At most two get in and the SEC will have 5 in.  They can all play their way in or out with aTm having a much tougher road to climb.

I am not 100% sure of anything but if aTm keeps playing well then they might be in without even being on the bubble. I think as of right now they are in the low 40's in terms of RPI and as you mentioned their worst loss is to a team rated at #90 or so. I think right now everything looks good for aTm and Ole Miss. Even after the bad loss last night and back to back bad losses I think UGA is still in the top 35 of the RPI. Just hard to see how things play out over the next 4 or 5 games. I do hope UK loses at least once and hopefully twice. Would be nice if UGA could beat them in Athens and obviously nice if we could beat them

[Adam Stokes]

I hate to suggest this in light of conversations and observations from Danny J, Adam and FayetteChill on the overall strength of the SEC, but.........

Ole Miss, Georgia and Texas A&M are currently fairly close ratings wise and none of these teams has much of a comfort zone at present.   

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kentucky and Arkansas could wind up as the only two teams receiving bids from the SEC. I'll admit this is a far fetched scenario but if Georgia continues on its current form, one can see the Bulldogs not receiving a bid. 

It would be hard to imagine BOTH Ole Miss and A&M cratering in from here, but if that did happen, the SEC could be a two bid conference.  I don't think that's likely, but the point to be reminded of is that several teams need a solid finish to remove their worries come Selection Sunday. 

Where once we were talking about the SEC being a 4 or 5 bid conference this year, there is (at least today) less certainty of that.

No disagreement at all.  When we say the SEC is stronger, it is more saying that those three teams which at this point are probably on the right side of the bubble would've been on the wrong side a year ago.  The overall improvement of the SEC (RPI-wise) is keeping them more afloat than they would've last year.  I'm feeling OM is becoming relatively safe, but the other three are all 50/50 or worse.  Wouldn't be surprised with only 3 teams, wouldn't be surprised with 6, it's all very fluid.  It would be nice to get 5.

[ArmyOfnobunaga]

I like LSU... I think they are about to get hot.

[ArmyOfnobunaga]

They will certainly need to in order to make the tournament....if not hot, then at least simmering to a boil....

LSU's remaining schedule certainly offers them the opportunity to make such a statement prior to SEC t play..

77   Feb. 21   Florida   
142   Feb. 24   @ Auburn   
38   Feb. 28   Ole Miss
80   Mar. 4   Tennessee   
17   Mar. 7   @ Arkansas

Yep. I think they win 4 of those. I think the finish this year is going to be a fun watch.

[TexArkHogFan]

Those that are saying A&M and LSU need to finish strong need to remember in order to do that they need to beat Arkansas at BWA.  We don't want that to happen.  I would much rather the SEC be a three bid conference than to lose to either one of those programs.  As it stands right now, the SEC may well be a three bid conference, KY, ARK and Ole Miss.  GA is in a melt down, LSU is inconsistent and A&M still has a tough row to hoe.  Unless one of them gets hot, I don't see any of them in the tournament, unless they win the  SEC tournament.   

[TexArkHogFan]

Not necessarily in LSU's case, TexArkHogFan - but it would mean LSU would have to beat Ole Miss to get a similar RPI bump that Arkansas received for beating Ole Miss.

A&M is a little more problematic - they finish:
88   Feb. 21   @ South Carolina
17   Feb. 24   @ Arkansas
142   Feb. 28   Auburn   
77   Mar. 3   @ Florida   
69   Mar. 7   Alabama

so at present, Arkansas is the only quality opponent remaining for the Aggies.

I think A&M could possibly lose to any of those teams.  Florida is getting better, SC at home will not be easy, Hogs will win.  Auburn and ALA will be their easiest games, but I think they will lose three of those five.  Of course, they could win all five as well.  I sure hope not.  I don't root for anybody but the Hogs.  If the SEC only gets two bids, as long as one of them is us, I'm fine with that. 

[popcornhog]

How is Ole Miss a lock?

[Danny J]

Just to show how fine the line is in the group clustered together, check out today (Feb 22) RPI numbers from ESPN:

15   Oklahoma   .6171
16   SMU   .6157
17   Louisville   .6147
18   Wichita St   .6130
19   Arkansas   .6128
20   Northern Iowa   .6124
21(T)   Georgetown .6116
21(T)Providence     .6116
23   West Virginia   .6101

One thing is for sure - the MSU win did NOT bring about this change.  Looks like a few of the higher profile wins for Arkansas are getting a bit better as SMU, Iowa State and Ole Miss all have improved RPI's.  If Iona (at 52) and USC-e (at 101) could find just a bit of improvement and move to the next higher group (respectively), that would help Arkansas a bit more as well.

As of today, no opponent of Arkansas seems in danger of dropping out of their group.

The RPI is a joke....I wish they would go to ESPN's BPI formulation that takes into consideration injured players, road versus home margins, etc.....

[popcornhog]

Ole Miss certainly controls its destiny if they win out to conclude conference play.

80   Feb. 21   Tennessee   7:30 PM
41   Feb. 25   Georgia   9:00 PM
48   Feb. 28   @ LSU   2:00 PM
69   Mar. 3   @ Alabama   7:00 PM
108   Mar. 7   Vanderbilt   9:00 PM

5-0 or 4-1 should get Ole Miss in one would think.  Lock? No.  But certainly in control of their destiny.

Oh, well, yeah. For sure.

Hanging on against Tennesee was big.

[Adam Stokes]

The RPI is a joke....I wish they would go to ESPN's BPI formulation that takes into consideration injured players, road versus home margins, etc.....

I'm still not sold on the BPI.  That would mean that right now BYU would be a #7 seed and Florida would be an #8 seed.  Since RPI is really only used to compare resumes by grouping a team's opponents in the 1-25, 26-50 etc zones, I don't consider it that big of a deal.

[Danny J]

I'm still not sold on the BPI.  That would mean that right now BYU would be a #7 seed and Florida would be an #8 seed.  Since RPI is really only used to compare resumes by grouping a team's opponents in the 1-25, 26-50 etc zones, I don't consider it that big of a deal.

I think there should be a happy medium. Last week before Kansas lost to WV they were #1 in the RPI while UK, who CRUSHED them on a neutral court, who is undefeated was #4.

[JONAS]

ESPN has us as a lock now.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

[nextlevel]

I think there should be a happy medium. Last week before Kansas lost to WV they were #1 in the RPI while UK, who CRUSHED them on a neutral court, who is undefeated was #4.

RPI isn't a ranking of teams.

Sure Kentucky stomped Kansas (largely due to Self's inability to use a true stretch 4 for what he is instead of trying to make him gain weight and play the 5), but Kansas benefits from Kentucky's RPI while boosting their own SOS. Their RPI was based mainly on their schedule and the schedule of the teams they played, not their record.

[Danny J]

RPI isn't a ranking of teams.

Sure Kentucky stomped Kansas (largely due to Self's inability to use a true stretch 4 for what he is instead of trying to make him gain weight and play the 5), but Kansas benefits from Kentucky's RPI while boosting their own SOS. Their RPI was based mainly on their schedule and the schedule of the teams they played, not their record.

I understand but unfortunately when it comes to selection Sunday it is one of the biggest factors in seeding, placement and bubble selection. I think SOS is still 75% of the equation although I may be wrong. I do know that after the selections were announced the chair stated that non-conf SOS is the #1 deciding factor when trying to narrow down teams on the bubble.

I think someone smarter than I should figure out a way to mesh all these things into a more accurate formulation.

[nextlevel]

I understand but unfortunately when it comes to selection Sunday it is one of the biggest factors in seeding, placement and bubble selection. I think SOS is still 75% of the equation although I may be wrong. I do know that after the selections were announced the chair stated that non-conf SOS is the #1 deciding factor when trying to narrow down teams on the bubble.

I think someone smarter than I should figure out a way to mesh all these things into a more accurate formulation.

The RPI the committee uses isn't the same as the varous RPIs out there available to the public.

The committee's RPI formula supposedly has correction factors that are not included in the other RPIs.

The Sagarin Rating system is also used.

BPI is a lulz joke only ESPN cares about since its theirs, they must think they can manipulate basketball system like that have the football system.

The committee doesn't use a set criteria, meaning they talk out of both sides of their mouths when talking about the last teams in vs the last teams out, they may say its OOC SOS, or Road wins, or wins away from home, etc. But you will often see teams better in these areas left out while poorer teams included down around the bubble.

You also see this in seeding.

It isn't black and white, plenty of gray involving politics and $$$ distribution for conferences around the country.

[Danny J]

The RPI the committee uses isn't the same as the varous RPIs out there available to the public.

The committee's RPI formula supposedly has correction factors that are not included in the other RPIs.

The Sagarin Rating system is also used.

BPI is a lulz joke only ESPN cares about since its theirs, they must think they can manipulate basketball system like that have the football system.

The committee doesn't use a set criteria, meaning they talk out of both sides of their mouths when talking about the last teams in vs the last teams out, they may say its OOC SOS, or Road wins, or wins away from home, etc. But you will often see teams better in these areas left out while poorer teams included down around the bubble.

You also see this in seeding.

It isn't black and white, plenty of gray involving politics and $$$ distribution for conferences around the country.

My understanding is that they don't release the formula they use is that right?

[nextlevel]

My understanding is that they don't release the formula they use is that right?

That is correct.

If you really examine their reasoning for for teams being seeded where they are or left out, you will notice the set criteria isn't really set, lots of debate with the data used to justify their stances for each.

It is still a very subjective selection process for those who fail to win their conference.

[HF#1]

Kentucky
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

LSU and UGA will fade away...

[jbcarol]

May drop to five but with two or fewer games and the SEC-T to go, most of the brackets have six SEC teams in the dance.

[jbcarol]

LSU and A&M are on the edge going into their last regular season games.

[jbcarol]

Eric Prisbell @EricPrisbell  ·  12 hours ago
Texas, Ole Miss, Indiana and Texas A&M are the last 4 teams in our @BracketWAG's latest bracket: http://q.usatoday.com/2015/03/08/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-selection-sunday/ ...

[jbcarol]

UGa and LSU are 10 seed or better on most brackets.

[jbcarol]

... then there were four.

[razorbacker3]

nm

[razorbacker3]

Eric Prisbell @EricPrisbell  ·  12 hours ago
Texas, Ole Miss, Indiana and Texas A&M are the last 4 teams in our @BracketWAG's latest bracket: http://q.usatoday.com/2015/03/08/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-selection-sunday/ ...

Texas and aTm will not make it.