Positives, Concerns Heading to College Station

[Drew Amman]

 

http://www.nwahomepage.com/razorback-nation/hog-hoops-rewind-bounce-back-performance/640895882

[Atlhogfan1]

Positive:  A&M turns the ball over more often than most every major conference team.  As a result they are -.8 in extra scoring chances per game (Hogs +.7 which isn't good for an Anderson team).  A&M gets 2 less FGA's on avg than opponents (Hogs +1.1 - again not good for an Anderson team: +5 last season).   A&M doesn't get to the line often but they also don't put opponents on the line(Hogs have done both on the road).

Negative:  They defend pretty well, rebound and Hogg shoots well from 3. 

[HF#1]

My only concern is that it is AT COLLEGE STATION

[Wisco Pig]

Positive:  A&M turns the ball over more often than most every major conference team. 

In its five league games, A&M is averaging 20.6 turnovers, which is beyond awful.  The average college team this year makes 13 a game.

[Razorod]

It would be classic Anderson and the Hogs to:

stumble out of the gate--1-3
make a nice run--10-2 (the two games I don't expect us to win are at OkSt and USCe)
falter at the end--1-2 (two road games at AU and UF + UGA at home)

Of course, the nice run includes winning at A&M tomorrow night. Let's see if Anderson can get that College Station road win. We're way past due.

[Hawg Red]

A&M is not good to date this season. I still expect them to beat the Hogs at home. There's no way around us needing this win. Stacking road wins is something we really need to do. Have to get road wins over bad teams.

[hogsanity]

The concerns are always the same with the Hogs. Letting a poor shooting team get extra chances by not rebounding well. Letting a team get hot from the outside because they leave guys open. Giving a poor shooting team cheap baskets by trapping way away from the basket. Putting themselves to sleep by being stagnant on offense. Fouling too much.

On paper, the Hogs should win. A&M is careless with the ball, has really poor guard play, only has one consistent threat from the perimeter, all of which play to the hogs strength. They do play pretty good D, and they do not foul much, which does not fit the Hogs M.O.

[Razorod]

A&M is not good to date this season. I still expect them to beat the Hogs at home. There's no way around us needing this win. Stacking road wins is something we really need to do. Have to get road wins over bad teams.

I agree. At minimum we really need to split A&M and Vandy, but it would really be nice to get both and just take care of business on the road at Mizzou and LSU. The latter scenario is doable and would get us to 5-4 on the road in the SEC. Back that up by not losing again at home (7-2) and we have a shot to go dancing..

[Letsroll1200]

Positives

1. Beard, Macon and Barford in the backcourt. If they can click at the same time Arkansas will be tough to beat.
2. Arkansas has played well on the road since Minnesota. Arkansas were solid in the first half against Kentucky and beat a very solid Tennessee team.
3. Dusty Hannah has still not had a breakout game this season.

Negatives
1. Will Davis and Williams out work and be too much for Moses.
2. Can not let Hogg and Glider go off.
3. 3 point defense by the Hogs will have to improve.

A wounded dog is dangerous. A&M back is against the wall. They do not want to go 1-5 in the SEC.

[The_Iceman]

We will get dominated on the glass by their two bigs. Hogg and Gilder will combine for 7+ threes. Hogs lose by 12.

[hogsanity]

We will get dominated on the glass by their two bigs. Hogg and Gilder will combine for 7+ threes. Hogs lose by 12.

You may be right but have you seen A&M play? Their guard play may be the worst in the sec. Now we may see them have the game of their season tomorrow night, tends to happen to the Hogs alot, but man those guards are just not very good at all.

[hamsam]

We will get dominated on the glass by their two bigs. Hogg and Gilder will combine for 7+ threes. Hogs lose by 12.

Dang man. You're more pessimistic than I am! I say Hogs win by 12

[HF#1]

We will completely abandon what we do at home and lose by 15 +

[root_hawg]

If we lose this game, MA shouldnt be allowed back on the plane

[hogsanity]

If we lose this game, MA shouldnt be allowed back on the plane

If they lose you can bet it won't be Mike's fault. I am guessing around 2pm tomorrow his backers will start up threads about who the refs are, how the refs are out to get the Hogs, etc.

[Dominicanhog]

If they lose you can bet it won't be Mike's fault. I am guessing around 2pm tomorrow his backers will start up threads about who the refs are, how the refs are out to get the Hogs, etc.

Man, you are a piece of work...

[Razorod]

According to Joe Lunardi, Hogs are a 10 seed as of today. He's usually pretty accurate. With the schedule ahead of us, we should be able to maintain that line or move up to an 8 or 9 seed.

[Letsroll1200]

According to Joe Lunardi, Hogs are a 10 seed as of today. He's usually pretty accurate. With the schedule ahead of us, we should be able to maintain that line or move up to an 8 or 9 seed.

More good news

[hogsanity]

According to Joe Lunardi, Hogs are a 10 seed as of today. He's usually pretty accurate. With the schedule ahead of us, we should be able to maintain that line or move up to an 8 or 9 seed.

Doesn't everyone see how precarious the ncaat is for this team? A 4 loss team is only projected as a 10 seed. One bad loss and they drop out.

[forrest city joe]

My concern are the refs. will we get the same BS we get at home and away?other than that,Hogs will be fine.

[Razorod]

Doesn't everyone see how precarious the ncaat is for this team? A 4 loss team is only projected as a 10 seed. One bad loss and they drop out.

Yes, I see how fragile it is and I'm not predicting anything. But, the opportunity is there if we have a good team and a good coach.

[Dominicanhog]

Doesn't everyone see how precarious the ncaat is for this team? A 4 loss team is only projected as a 10 seed. One bad loss and they drop out.

no dude everybody thinks were a lock, .. their sure because of our top 5 ranking... but unlike you, they want them to win and keep hope alive ..because that is what fans do... try it some time

[dsims2k3]

If we don't  get dominated on the boards we should be  fine.

[realistichog]

FCJ says it will be the refs. Letsroll says A&M is the best 1-5 conference team in the country. Built in excuses for MA before the damn game starts.

[FineAsSwine]

According to Joe Lunardi, Hogs are a 10 seed as of today. He's usually pretty accurate. With the schedule ahead of us, we should be able to maintain that line or move up to an 8 or 9 seed.

So in spite of having a coach who (according to Hogville): doesn't understand the game of basketball; doesn't teach fundamentals; doesn't watch film because he can't understand it anyway; is too lazy to recruit and too trifling to coach the ones who somehow wind up here; can't keep the ones he gets; can't get talent yet is accused of mismanaging a talented roster; has the sorriest staff in D1; doesn't really have an offense; doesn't teach defense; runs a rat ball system; is the worst in game coach in D1; has never run a successful offensive called play out of a timeout; doesn't make offensive adjustments; won't play freshmen who are obviously able to help him win; is a wuss with the refs; has no fire; and never wins on the road yet Lunardi has this team in as a 10 seed right now. Wow.

Based on Hogville's assessment, how is it possible that this team has won more than 3 or 4 games? I get a kick out of the outburst of hyperbole on here as soon as the team lost a few games. Still, 13-4 ain't bad and there is still a chance to make the tournament and I am pulling for CMA and these guys to keep fighting, get better and make the postseason.

So, I am going to take it as a huge positive that Lunardi gives us a shot. We just need to go into College Station and make something happen to keep us trending up.

[The_Iceman]

You may be right but have you seen A&M play? Their guard play may be the worst in the sec. Now we may see them have the game of their season tomorrow night, tends to happen to the Hogs alot, but man those guards are just not very good at all.

Our trapping will leave their shooters wide open. And if they miss, we won't be able to keep their bigs from the offensive rebound. Our trapping defense will be ineffective.

[Biggus Piggus]

This is a critically important stretch of games for Arkansas. This will make or break the season. At Texas A&M, home vs. LSU, at Vanderbilt, at Oklahoma State, home vs. Alabama, at Missouri.

Arkansas has the potential to win all of these games, and it would be great timing for that.

It's four road games in a six-game stretch, something the Hogs will face again. But this time is the more winnable.

Later in the schedule, Arkansas plays at LSU, at South Carolina, home vs. Ole Miss and aTm, at Auburn and Florida.

The Aggies, Vandy and Okie State are not going to the NCAAT. They are good enough that a half-assed, sloppy effort will not beat them at their place.

Arkansas put up the last half-assed, sloppy game it can afford last week against Mississippi State. It is completely out of margin for error.

The only teams left on the schedule that belong in the top 50 are South Carolina, Florida and maybe Georgia (we'll see come March). The Hogs can't afford to lose games against NIT-caliber opposition.

Texas A&M is the worst ballhandling team in the SEC, but Arkansas has been poor at forcing turnovers. Does ballhandling matter in this game?

The Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the league, while Arkansas is the worst defensive rebounding team. That WILL matter.

Arkansas also is the most frequent fouling team in the SEC. A&M is shooting 66% at the line in conference play, which should help.

Surprisingly, Texas A&M has had assists on 57% of its field goals in league games, highest % in the SEC. The main passers are 6-4 G Admon Gilder and 6-9 F D.J. Hogg. They probably get so many assists because big men Tyler Davis, Tonny Trocha-Morelos and Robert Williams finish so well.

Gilder, 6-3 G Chris Collins and 6-1 G J.C. Hampton are the backcourt for aTm. Sometimes Hogg at 6-9, 220, is forced to be a primary ballhandler. They are way short on guards.

The Ags have endless frontcourt depth though, with six true power forwards to use.

Hogg leads the team with 37 threes and 41% shooting. Gilder, Trocha-Morelos and Hampton average one per game. The Aggies will not shoot a lot of threes.

The 20% level is a bad line to cross for turnovers. A bunch of Aggies average turning it over on more than 20% of possessions - Davis, Hogg, Gilder, Williams, Hampton, Collins (over 35%). They should be a TO sieve, but Arkansas's pressure defense has been unusually poor.

Again - this contest brings huge contrasts in four areas:

* Rebounding - aTm is committed, Arkansas is all over the place.
* Three-point shooting - Arkansas is a better shooting team and needs an advantage here.
* Free throws - Arkansas has been good at drawing fouls and making shots. The Hogs also foul a ton, while aTm doesn't shoot that well.
* Ballhandling - Arkansas should have an advantage solely because it's a good ballhandling team, but how hard should it be to take the ball away from the guard-poor Aggies?

If this becomes a game of single missed shots for Arkansas + backboard volleyball for aTm, this will be another abysmal loss for MA in College Station. Our last few trips there: 92-69 loss, 69-53 loss, 69-51 loss.

[Biggus Piggus]

By the way, Arkansas has only one regular over 20% for turnovers - Trey Thompson. Adrio Bailey is at 32%, Brachen Hazen 43%, which might explain how little they play.

If Arkansas commits to forcing turnovers from the Aggies - it might be brilliant, might be fatal.

To this point, nothing has injected life into the Hogs' pressure defense, and the more Arkansas tries to press, the more it fouls.

Also, greater emphasis on pressure D makes the Hogs' rebounding even worse. Poor defensive rebounding against aTm plays into the Aggies' strategy.

[Biggus Piggus]

Players in the Arkansas-aTm matchup ranked by fouls per 40 minutes:

8.1 F Trey Thompson, Arkansas
6.5 F Dustin Thomas, Arkansas
5.2 F Tavario Miller, aTm
4.9 F Arlando Cook, Arkansas
4.5 G Jaylen Barford, Arkansas, F Tyler Davis, aTm
4.0 F Moses Kingsley, Arkansas, G Anton Beard, Arkansas
3.8 F D.J. Hogg, aTm
3.7 G Chris Collins, aTm
3.3 G Daryl Macon, Arkansas, F Robert Williams, aTm
3.2 G J.C. Hampton, aTm
3.1 G Admon Gilder, aTm
2.9 G Manny Watkins, Arkansas
2.8 G Dusty Hannahs, Arkansas
2.4 F Tonny Trocha-Morelos, aTm

This tells you most of what you need to know about Arkansas's problems.

The Razorbacks have three forwards who, on average, would foul out in 40 minutes or less. The style of defense that Arkansas is teaching big men is not very effective defense + results in a ridiculous number of fouls.

The coaching of big men IS Arkansas's problem. Then you have Barford and Beard who foul like normal big men do.

The least frequent fouler on this list is a 6-10, 224-pound starting power forward for Texas A&M.

The Aggies have four of the country's better shotblockers + four superb offensive rebounders. Somehow they do this without racking up tons of fouls.

Arkansas's defensive system - ever since Nolan - encouraged players to use all their fouls in fewer minutes. Traditional systems try to avoid fouls, because starters are expected to go more than 30 minutes.

Even against miserable Missouri, the Hogs had six players who drew 3-5 fouls. Even the Tigers had only four. This "go all out for fewer minutes" philosophy inherently results in more team fouls. It's a huge handicap.

When you put a team on the line 30+ times per game, to make the overall defensive effort good enough, you have to play absolutely dominating D in the other 55-60 possessions. What Arkansas has been doing is giving up too many offensive rebounds + not forcing enough turnovers to compensate. Need to push the turnovers past 20 to make the numbers work.

Or be so good on the offensive end that poor defense does not matter.

[Razorod]

Fantastic set of posts Biggus. Thanks.

[The OTR]

My concern are the refs. will we get the same BS we get at home and away?other than that,Hogs will be fine.

My concerns are whether or not anyone has taken one minute to look up the names of the refs and posted them here for you or PM'd them to you.  Seems like a whole lot of word and statistics and the one thing Joe and I are concerned about are the names of these potentially crooked refs and not one of you has even thought about letting us know who they are.

Sometimes I wonder why I even bother positing on here as much minutia as I have to sift through to get one or two gold nuggets on anything.

[hogsanity]

So in spite of having a coach who (according to Hogville): doesn't understand the game of basketball; doesn't teach fundamentals; doesn't watch film because he can't understand it anyway; is too lazy to recruit and too trifling to coach the ones who somehow wind up here; can't keep the ones he gets; can't get talent yet is accused of mismanaging a talented roster; has the sorriest staff in D1; doesn't really have an offense; doesn't teach defense; runs a rat ball system; is the worst in game coach in D1; has never run a successful offensive called play out of a timeout; doesn't make offensive adjustments; won't play freshmen who are obviously able to help him win; is a wuss with the refs; has no fire; and never wins on the road yet Lunardi has this team in as a 10 seed right now. Wow.

Based on Hogville's assessment, how is it possible that this team has won more than 3 or 4 games? I get a kick out of the outburst of hyperbole on here as soon as the team lost a few games. Still, 13-4 ain't bad and there is still a chance to make the tournament and I am pulling for CMA and these guys to keep fighting, get better and make the postseason.

So, I am going to take it as a huge positive that Lunardi gives us a shot. We just need to go into College Station and make something happen to keep us trending up.

Stan Heath went to an elite 8.

[Biggus Piggus]

Our best wins to date, using Pomeroy rankings (recognizing that the NCAA selection committee already has said the RPI is crap):

40. Houston (13-5, 4-2 AAC)
54. Tennessee (9-8, 2-3 SEC)
76. Texas (7-10, 1-4 B12)

Our remaining top 50 chances will come against Oklahoma State, South Carolina and Florida.

That's all.

Cannot afford to lose to Texas A&M or Vanderbilt.

The SEC has seven teams ranked in the bottom half of the top 100 plus two more below that.

The only way we go to the NCAAT is by mopping the floor with the SEC's bottom nine.

[The OTR]

Our best wins to date, using Pomeroy rankings (recognizing that the NCAA selection committee already has said the RPI is crap):

40. Houston (13-5, 4-2 AAC)
54. Tennessee (9-8, 2-3 SEC)
76. Texas (7-10, 1-4 B12)

Our remaining top 50 chances will come against Oklahoma State, South Carolina and Florida.

That's all.

Cannot afford to lose to Texas A&M or Vanderbilt.

The SEC has seven teams ranked in the bottom half of the top 100 plus two more below that.

The only way we go to the NCAAT is by mopping the floor with the SEC's bottom nine.

Good analysis. I heard someone talking the other day about how the committee makes decisions about who gets in and who doesn't. It seems back in the day 20 wins meant we were getting in, and we always got 20 wins it seems. Now even 22 or 23 doesn't necessarily guarantee a berth.  You are right. We can't afford anymore bad losses and we need at least, in my opinion, two wins against the three you mentioned.