Season review and possible finish

[Biggus Piggus]

Note: Post edited to change references to Mercer.

Arkansas is 15-14, 8-8 in SEC games after going 7-6 in nonconference play.

Nonleague schedule included (based on Ken Pomeroy rankings):

One top 50 opponent - Texas Tech (Razorbacks won at home in overtime)
51-100 - Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Evansville, Dayton - Hogs went 1-4
101-150 - Wake Forest (lost by 3 on the road)
151-200 - Tennessee Tech, Mercer, North Florida - 2-1
201+ - Southern, Charleston Southern, Northwestern State - 3-0

This appears wildly variable. If the team's defense had been adequate in the early season, Arkansas might have had several more top 100 victories.

Mercer is 18-13, 8-10 in the Southern Conference. It was 18-6 before two starters were suspended. Their rating in Pomeroy peaked at 122nd. Arkansas was Mercer's only top 100 victory, among two top 100 opponents. The Bears might have been a decent team -- might have been a good team -- but their awful schedule doomed them to a low rating.

Mercer also was the dreaded first game after finals break + was in Little Rock.

Wake Forest is 11-19, 2-15 in the ACC. Early on, the Demon Deacons also defeated Indiana, UCLA and LSU. They're one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the country, but against Arkansas Wake made nine treys. Again...the defense wasn't there yet.

Early in the season, Anton Beard was suspended, and Trey Thompson played little to no minutes against Ga Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Dayton. Willy Kouassi got better minutes in Nov-Dec. Jimmy Whitt's play was very spotty. The bench was very short.

SEC schedule to date included:

Top 50 - Texas A&M x2, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida - 2-3 record
51-100 - Mississippi State x2, LSU x2, Georgia, Ole Miss - 2-4
101-150 - Tennessee x2 - 2-0
151-200 - Missouri x2, Auburn - 2-1

Missouri, Auburn and Mercer all rank very close to one another. Why did Arkansas do so much better against Mizzou than Auburn and Mercer?

Auburn shot 58% inside, powered by 6-10 Tyler Harris and widebody Cinmeon Bowers + also shot 65% from 3-pt range, making a preposterous 15 treys. Arkansas was so obsessed with forcing turnovers that it gave up a ridiculous number of open shots. It was a massive-outlier game for Auburn, offensively, which suggests the Hogs' defensive approach was very wrong.

Mercer did three things right - made 10 threes, dominated the defensive boards, and smothered the Hogs inside (allowing 36% shooting from 2-pt range).

Missouri lacked the ability to outscore Arkansas from outside the arc, and that seems to be the only real difference.

Let's go beyond the dickering about last year's recruiting failures + unexpected attrition. If Arkansas had won two games it should have won -- Mercer and Auburn -- then we would be talking about a 4-7 record against top 100 opponents, 9-8 vs. top 150, 17-12 against a solid schedule with a good chance at postseason play.

You cannot explain Mercer and Auburn by matchups, or anything but preparation and in-game coaching.

Rest of season, Arkansas plays two more 51-100 opponents before the SECT -- Alabama (road) and South Carolina (home).

Alabama is an excellent defensive team that struggles to score. The Tide has beaten some very good scoring teams (Notre Dame, Clemson, aTm, LSU) and some very good defensive teams (Wichita State, aTm, Florida, South Carolina). Bama has the most difficulty against opponents with great all-around FG % defense -- shot-denial defense that doesn't put them on the line much. Arkansas is the antithesis of that + will lose soundly at Tuscaloosa.

South Carolina is 23-6 with losses at Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri and Mississippi State. They're a strong defensive team overall but leaky on the perimeter. The Gamecocks are weak inside and try to compensate with offensive rebounding. The Razorbacks should win this on Senior Day.

That would place the Hogs 9-9 in the SEC, in a possible five-way tie for sixth. Heaven knows how the tiebreakers for the SECT will work out, but that five-way tie could include four teams that defeated Arkansas. So maybe 10th in the SECT seeding and a Thursday game against No. 7 -- possibly Florida, Georgia or Alabama. Winner of that gets a Friday evening game against No. 2 -- likely either Kentucky or aTm.

Very good chance that Arkansas ends the SECT with a .500 record. Probably out of the NIT.

[HawgAdvocate]

Great summation of a very frustrating season.

[The_Iceman]

Pretty accurate breakdown.

[Biggus Piggus]

Overall, my disappointment was in how bad the Hogs were on defense to begin the season. It was as though MA did not know how to adjust to having a very short bench. It appeared that MA resigned himself to developing defense as the season unfolded.

Auburn and Mercer were bad, but the Razorbacks wasted a good opportunity by being unprepared in November.

[The_Iceman]

Overall, my disappointment was in how bad the Hogs were on defense to begin the season. It was as though MA did not know how to adjust to having a very short bench. It appeared that MA resigned himself to developing defense as the season unfolded.

Auburn and Mercer were bad, but the Razorbacks wasted a good opportunity by being unprepared in November.

What are your thoughts on the program next year (assuming no unplanned departures)?

[Uncommon]

At the start of this week:
4 good wins
LSU
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Vanderbilt

6 bad losses
Auburn
Georgia
Mercer
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Wake Forest

Should be at 17-12 (9-7) at this point in the season and finish the regular season at 17-14 (9-9).  Instead, we're at 15-14 (8-8) with a good chance we end at 15-16 (8-10).

[HoopS]

I agree the D was bad, but,...


Those one possession losses, there were missed FTs, turnovers, failure to get the ball inbounded properly, just a myriad of things that, to me, had more to do with overall inexperience than neglect of the defense.

[BRHogfan]

I agree the D was bad, but,...


Those one possession losses, there were missed FTs, turnovers, failure to get the ball inbounded properly, just a myriad of things that, to me, had more to do with overall inexperience than neglect of the defense.

It's hard to ignore the fact that Arkansas has lost every game that was decided by less than 5 points (beat Vanderbilt)

4 point losses - Dayton, Florida, Auburn,
3 point losses - Stanford, Wake, Georgia,
2 point losses - LSU

If we won even 3 of these, it could mean a top 4 seed in the SEC tournament or 3 more top 100 RPI wins.

[HoopS]

Lot of late mistakes cost us in those games. I still say the officials screwed us over in BR or we win that one. Inexperienced teams find ways to lose close games quite often.

[gmarv]

Lot of late mistakes cost us in those games. I still say the officials screwed us over in BR or we win that one. Inexperienced teams find ways to lose close games quite often.

this is how I,m looking at it also.just like last years team learned how to win on the road.i think next years team will be similar to last years team in that they will learn to finish games.

[nwahogfan1]

Very consistent hard nosed defense can win you so many games when the offense is so up and down.  Mike talks a good game about wanting his team to play good defense but our team doesn't always display that.  I think Mike needs to step up   his recruiting of his kind of players that love to play defense as well as can put the ball in the hole.

[WooPigFarm]

I never post, but I now feel I should...

I remember hearing (radio) and reading (forums) at the beginning of the season that this season was a wash.  We are now at 15-14 overall, and 8-7 in SEC.  That is average, and we exceeded most peoples expectations.

Yet, some people will continue to complain, I hope that is not the majority!

BTW, OP was very good!

[yocdaddy]

Arkansas is 15-14, 8-8 in SEC games after going 7-6 in nonconference play.

Nonleague schedule included (based on Ken Pomeroy rankings):

One top 50 opponent - Texas Tech (Razorbacks won at home in overtime)
51-100 - Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Evansville, Dayton - Hogs went 1-4
101-150 - Wake Forest (lost by 3 on the road)
151-200 - Tennessee Tech, Mercer, North Florida - 2-1
201+ - Southern, Charleston Southern, Northwestern State - 3-0

This appears wildly variable. If the team's defense had been adequate in the early season, Arkansas might have had several more top 100 victories. Mercer is 18-13, 8-10 in the Southern Conference. It's one of the worst defensive teams in college hoop. That loss was poor, but it also was the dreaded first game after finals break + was in Little Rock.

Wake Forest is 11-19, 2-15 in the ACC. Early on, the Demon Deacons also defeated Indiana, UCLA and LSU. They're one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the country, but against Arkansas Wake made nine treys. Again...the defense wasn't there yet.

Early in the season, Anton Beard was suspended, and Trey Thompson played little to no minutes against Ga Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Dayton. Willy Kouassi got better minutes in Nov-Dec. Jimmy Whitt's play was very spotty. The bench was very short.

SEC schedule to date included:

Top 50 - Texas A&M x2, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida - 2-3 record
51-100 - Mississippi State x2, LSU x2, Georgia, Ole Miss - 2-4
101-150 - Tennessee x2 - 2-0
151-200 - Missouri x2, Auburn - 2-1

Missouri, Auburn and Mercer all rank very close to one another. Why did Arkansas do so much better against Mizzou than Auburn and Mercer?

Auburn shot 58% inside, powered by 6-10 Tyler Harris and widebody Cinmeon Bowers + also shot 65% from 3-pt range, making a preposterous 15 treys. Arkansas was so obsessed with forcing turnovers that it gave up a ridiculous number of open shots. It was a massive-outlier game for Auburn, offensively, which suggests the Hogs' defensive approach was very wrong.

Mercer did three things right - made 10 threes, dominated the defensive boards, and smothered the Hogs inside (allowing 36% shooting from 2-pt range).

Missouri lacked the ability to outscore Arkansas from outside the arc, and that seems to be the only real difference.

Let's go beyond the dickering about last year's recruiting failures + unexpected attrition. If Arkansas had won two games it should have won -- Mercer and Auburn -- then we would be talking about a 4-7 record against top 100 opponents, 9-8 vs. top 150, 17-12 against a solid schedule with a good chance at postseason play.

You cannot explain Mercer and Auburn by matchups, or anything but preparation and in-game coaching.

Rest of season, Arkansas plays two more 51-100 opponents before the SECT -- Alabama (road) and South Carolina (home).

Alabama is an excellent defensive team that struggles to score. The Tide has beaten some very good scoring teams (Notre Dame, Clemson, aTm, LSU) and some very good defensive teams (Wichita State, aTm, Florida, South Carolina). Bama has the most difficulty against opponents with great all-around FG % defense -- shot-denial defense that doesn't put them on the line much. Arkansas is the antithesis of that + will lose soundly at Tuscaloosa.

South Carolina is 23-6 with losses at Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri and Mississippi State. They're a strong defensive team overall but leaky on the perimeter. The Gamecocks are weak inside and try to compensate with offensive rebounding. The Razorbacks should win this on Senior Day.

That would place the Hogs 9-9 in the SEC, in a possible five-way tie for sixth. Heaven knows how the tiebreakers for the SECT will work out, but that five-way tie could include four teams that defeated Arkansas. So maybe 10th in the SECT seeding and a Thursday game against No. 7 -- possibly Florida, Georgia or Alabama. Winner of that gets a Friday evening game against No. 2 -- likely either Kentucky or aTm.

Very good chance that Arkansas ends the SECT with a .500 record. Probably out of the NIT.

This is a very good post.  Losing to Auburn at home, Mercer at LR, and Stanford after leading by 15+ with 5 minutes to play are terrible losses any way you slice it.  Wins in those 3 games makes us 18-11 with an outside shot at 20 wins and possible post-season play.  That's without mentioning Akron, Miss St., or Ole Miss.  Our style of play gave up way too many easy baskets to inferior teams and it has cost us valuable wins this season. 

[lynbug]

I never post, but I now feel I should...

I remember hearing (radio) and reading (forums) at the beginning of the season that this season was a wash.  We are now at 15-14 overall, and 8-7 in SEC.  That is average, and we exceeded most peoples expectations.

Yet, some people will continue to complain, I hope that is not the majority!

BTW, OP was very good!

Yes, we have finished like most fans anticipated.  But, for me, the journey was a conundrum.  I think most fans would like to see a degree of improvement and consistency from November through March.  This season has been anything but that.  Like another poster said, "you never know what team will show up."  And I have changed my mind about the previous sentence--there has been improvement --just not consistency.

[ArkansasI]

The team I've watched this year has played far better than I thought they would after the departures and lack of backfilling.  (I thought we would win about 8 games.)
 
BP's post indicates our team performance placed Arkansas's power rating at or near 100.

We are who we are right now... completely irrelevant.

[Biggus Piggus]

Someone let me know that Mercer was 18-6, 8-3 but has lost seven in a row after the suspension of two starters.

That looks like a bad loss now, but Mercer is not the same team that beat the Hogs.

[Biggus Piggus]

Very consistent hard nosed defense can win you so many games when the offense is so up and down.  Mike talks a good game about wanting his team to play good defense but our team doesn't always display that.  I think Mike needs to step up   his recruiting of his kind of players that love to play defense as well as can put the ball in the hole.

Arkansas's ranking in defensive efficiency (Pomeroy) by season:

183rd 2011-12
76th 2012-13
53rd 2013-14
77th 2014-15
94th 2015-16

If you're going to be mediocre on defense, the offense has to be great to make the team a big winner. But offense seems to be the way to go.

The lowest-rated team in offensive efficiency on Pomeroy's top 20 power rankings = Wichita State.

Wichita, ranked 8th in Pomeroy's power rankings, is 57th in offensive efficiency, No. 1 on defense.

Wichita is the only one of Pomeroy's top 20 teams that isn't in the top 40 for scoring efficiency.

The Pomeroy top 20 includes only five of the top 10 defensive teams. Six of the top 20 teams are at 50 or below in defensive efficiency.

MA has had one Arkansas team that was efficient at scoring -- last season's team ranked 26th. This year, 69th.

West Virginia under Huggins has the formula MA's looking for. Faster tempo, lots of scoring in the paint -- a combination of ferocious offensive rebounding and forced turnovers/transition. Not solely a three-guard system, often falls back on two combo guards and three power players. If WVa could make 3-pointers, they'd run away with the Big 12.

WVa ranks 26th in offensive efficiency, 9th on defense. Gets 40% of its minutes from the bench. Anyone complaining that Huggins can't recruit because of playing time?

[Atlhogfan1]

Arkansas's ranking in defensive efficiency (Pomeroy) by season:

183rd 2011-12
76th 2012-13
53rd 2013-14
77th 2014-15
94th 2015-16

If you're going to be mediocre on defense, the offense has to be great to make the team a big winner. But offense seems to be the way to go.

The lowest-rated team in offensive efficiency on Pomeroy's top 20 power rankings = Wichita State.

Wichita, ranked 8th in Pomeroy's power rankings, is 57th in offensive efficiency, No. 1 on defense.

Wichita is the only one of Pomeroy's top 20 teams that isn't in the top 40 for scoring efficiency.

The Pomeroy top 20 includes only five of the top 10 defensive teams. Six of the top 20 teams are at 50 or below in defensive efficiency.

MA has had one Arkansas team that was efficient at scoring -- last season's team ranked 26th. This year, 69th.

West Virginia under Huggins has the formula MA's looking for. Faster tempo, lots of scoring in the paint -- a combination of ferocious offensive rebounding and forced turnovers/transition. Not solely a three-guard system, often falls back on two combo guards and three power players. If WVa could make 3-pointers, they'd run away with the Big 12.

WVa ranks 26th in offensive efficiency, 9th on defense. Gets 40% of its minutes from the bench. Anyone complaining that Huggins can't recruit because of playing time?

He doesn't out recruit Anderson based on ratings.  Can't say if anyone complains as I don't pay attention to WV.  Recruiting looks similar.  Occasional top 75 HS recruit with some plus 150-250 HS recruits and some JC recruits.  Must be doing a much better job of getting players who fit what he wants to do and coaching them. 


I think we have seen at the start of multiple seasons Mike trying to value offense over defense.  It has taken into conference play for him to figure out rotations and to get more balance offense to defense.

[phadedhawg]

The season went pretty much the way I figured it would.  There were several times I was caught off guard by how well we played and just as many times I was stunned by a flop.  I see some good pieces on the floor but we are lacking some essential ingredients to be able to elevate our game to a postseason contender. 

The biggest disappointment in my eyes is our defense.  As the season goes on, it feels like we press teams just to say we did.  Rarely does it look effective.  Pressing a team is a risk/reward scenario and it seemed to benefit our opponent more than hamper them.   

[Biggus Piggus]

Next year's team...

Point guards
6-5 Jaylen Barford, junior (Motlow CC/Jackson, Tenn.)
6-0 Anton Beard, junior (NLR)

Shooting guards
6-3 Dusty Hannahs, senior (Texas Tech/Little Rock)
6-4 Daryl Macon, junior (Holmes CC/Little Rock)

Swingmen
6-4 Jimmy Whitt, sophomore (Columbia, Mo.)
6-5 C.J. Jones, freshman (Birmingham, Ala.)
6-3 Manuale Watkins, senior (Fayetteville)

Wing forwards
6-7 Adrio Bailey, freshman (Campti, La.)
6-7 Lorenzo Jenkins, redshirt freshman (Naples, Fla.)

Power forwards
6-10 Moses Kingsley, senior (Huntington Prep/Nigeria)
6-9 Arlando Cook, junior (Connors CC/Hazelwood, Mo.)
6-7 Dustin Thomas, junior (Colorado/Texarkana, Tx.)

Centers
6-9 Trey Thompson, junior (Forrest City)

Arkansas is trying to add one more low post player in spring recruiting. It is unclear whether that player would take the scholarship currently held by Manny Watkins, or if the Hogs expect Kingsley to leap for the pros. It would be a shame for Kingsley to leave early, because this team could be powerful.

Barford and Macon are not your average juco guards. They will be immediate factors. They bring size, strength and quickness on defense, and they are scoring machines.

Finally, MA will have the guards to play his style. The Razorbacks should improve significantly on both ends. Depth will be plentiful. Main question is just how much muscle the Hogs will have up front.

Some sites list Adrio Bailey as 6-8, others 6-6. The Alexandria, La., paper has had 6-8 for the past two years or so. We'll see when he arrives. I took an average. Bailey looks like a Clyde Drexler-style (college version) combo forward.

Cook put up 11 points, 9 rebounds per game at Connors State as a freshman, shooting 57% from the floor. Those numbers made him the top-rated juco power forward in this class.

This season, Cook is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds. Connors State is 25-4.

Kentucky is bringing in two guards and three bigs to replace maybe five departures. Arkansas might match up against the Cats well next season.

[PonderinHog]

I'm holding out hope that we make the NIT.  Beating Bubba would sure help.

[phadedhawg]

I'm up for an NIT invite.  It is always nice to get to play more games...

[gmarv]

Next year's team...

Point guards
6-5 Jaylen Barford, junior (Motlow CC/Jackson, Tenn.)
6-0 Anton Beard, junior (NLR)

Shooting guards
6-3 Dusty Hannahs, senior (Texas Tech/Little Rock)
6-4 Daryl Macon, junior (Holmes CC/Little Rock)

Swingmen
6-4 Jimmy Whitt, sophomore (Columbia, Mo.)
6-5 C.J. Jones, freshman (Birmingham, Ala.)
6-3 Manuale Watkins, senior (Fayetteville)

Wing forwards
6-7 Adrio Bailey, freshman (Campti, La.)
6-7 Lorenzo Jenkins, redshirt freshman (Naples, Fla.)

Power forwards
6-10 Moses Kingsley, senior (Huntington Prep/Nigeria)
6-9 Arlando Cook, junior (Connors CC/Hazelwood, Mo.)
6-7 Dustin Thomas, junior (Colorado/Texarkana, Tx.)

Centers
6-9 Trey Thompson, junior (Forrest City)

Arkansas is trying to add one more low post player in spring recruiting. It is unclear whether that player would take the scholarship currently held by Manny Watkins, or if the Hogs expect Kingsley to leap for the pros. It would be a shame for Kingsley to leave early, because this team could be powerful.

Barford and Macon are not your average juco guards. They will be immediate factors. They bring size, strength and quickness on defense, and they are scoring machines.

Finally, MA will have the guards to play his style. The Razorbacks should improve significantly on both ends. Depth will be plentiful. Main question is just how much muscle the Hogs will have up front.

Some sites list Adrio Bailey as 6-8, others 6-6. The Alexandria, La., paper has had 6-8 for the past two years or so. We'll see when he arrives. I took an average. Bailey looks like a Clyde Drexler-style (college version) combo forward.

Cook put up 11 points, 9 rebounds per game at Connors State as a freshman, shooting 57% from the floor. Those numbers made him the top-rated juco power forward in this class.

This season, Cook is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds. Connors State is 25-4.

Kentucky is bringing in two guards and three bigs to replace maybe five departures. Arkansas might match up against the Cats well next season.

this looks like we will have the potential to be good to very good depending on what kingsley does.

[TomBigBeeHog]

Next year's team...

Point guards
6-5 Jaylen Barford, junior (Motlow CC/Jackson, Tenn.)
6-0 Anton Beard, junior (NLR)

Shooting guards
6-3 Dusty Hannahs, senior (Texas Tech/Little Rock)
6-4 Daryl Macon, junior (Holmes CC/Little Rock)

Swingmen
6-4 Jimmy Whitt, sophomore (Columbia, Mo.)
6-5 C.J. Jones, freshman (Birmingham, Ala.)
6-3 Manuale Watkins, senior (Fayetteville)

Wing forwards
6-7 Adrio Bailey, freshman (Campti, La.)
6-7 Lorenzo Jenkins, redshirt freshman (Naples, Fla.)

Power forwards
6-10 Moses Kingsley, senior (Huntington Prep/Nigeria)
6-9 Arlando Cook, junior (Connors CC/Hazelwood, Mo.)
6-7 Dustin Thomas, junior (Colorado/Texarkana, Tx.)

Centers
6-9 Trey Thompson, junior (Forrest City)

Next years Red-White game could be competitive

Red:
Beard; Hannahs; Watkins; Thomas; Kingsley; Jenkins; Starks

White:
Barford; Macon; Whitt; Bailey; Cook; Thompson; Jones

[ArkansasI]

Next year's team...

Point guards
6-5 Jaylen Barford, junior (Motlow CC/Jackson, Tenn.)
6-0 Anton Beard, junior (NLR)

Shooting guards
6-3 Dusty Hannahs, senior (Texas Tech/Little Rock)
6-4 Daryl Macon, junior (Holmes CC/Little Rock)

Swingmen
6-4 Jimmy Whitt, sophomore (Columbia, Mo.)
6-5 C.J. Jones, freshman (Birmingham, Ala.)
6-3 Manuale Watkins, senior (Fayetteville)

Wing forwards
6-7 Adrio Bailey, freshman (Campti, La.)
6-7 Lorenzo Jenkins, redshirt freshman (Naples, Fla.)

Power forwards
6-10 Moses Kingsley, senior (Huntington Prep/Nigeria)
6-9 Arlando Cook, junior (Connors CC/Hazelwood, Mo.)
6-7 Dustin Thomas, junior (Colorado/Texarkana, Tx.)

Centers
6-9 Trey Thompson, junior (Forrest City)

Arkansas is trying to add one more low post player in spring recruiting. It is unclear whether that player would take the scholarship currently held by Manny Watkins, or if the Hogs expect Kingsley to leap for the pros. It would be a shame for Kingsley to leave early, because this team could be powerful.

Barford and Macon are not your average juco guards. They will be immediate factors. They bring size, strength and quickness on defense, and they are scoring machines.

Finally, MA will have the guards to play his style. The Razorbacks should improve significantly on both ends. Depth will be plentiful. Main question is just how much muscle the Hogs will have up front.

Some sites list Adrio Bailey as 6-8, others 6-6. The Alexandria, La., paper has had 6-8 for the past two years or so. We'll see when he arrives. I took an average. Bailey looks like a Clyde Drexler-style (college version) combo forward.

Cook put up 11 points, 9 rebounds per game at Connors State as a freshman, shooting 57% from the floor. Those numbers made him the top-rated juco power forward in this class.

This season, Cook is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds. Connors State is 25-4.

Kentucky is bringing in two guards and three bigs to replace maybe five departures. Arkansas might match up against the Cats well next season.

This is all that matters today. If this is next year's roster, Razorback fans have real hope for the first time in 20 years. I believe that Bud Walton Arena will exhibit some real enthusiasm.

On the other hand, if Moses turns pro. Or if any of the jucos don't make it to campus. The little bits of air breathed back into the program during the last signing period will deflate with a chubby fart sound. And if these guys aren't on the team, Mike will be coaching his last season from our bench next year.

[Biggus Piggus]

This is all that matters today. If this is next year's roster, Razorback fans have real hope for the first time in 20 years. I believe that Bud Walton Arena will exhibit some real enthusiasm.

On the other hand, if Moses turns pro. Or if any of the jucos don't make it to campus. The little bits of air breathed back into the program during the last signing period will deflate with a chubby fart sound. And if these guys aren't on the team, Mike will be coaching his last season from our bench next year.

Naw, they don't need Moses to be good next season, but they could be great with him.

[The_Iceman]

Next years Red-White game could be competitive

Red:
Beard; Hannahs; Watkins; Thomas; Kingsley; Jenkins; Starks

White:
Barford; Macon; Whitt; Bailey; Cook; Thompson; Jones

That will actually be a really fun game to go to.

[urkillnmesmalls]

So, it boils down to this.  We HOPE that the JUCO guys will qualify academically, and translate immediately to SEC caliber talent.  We HOPE that Kingsley stays.  From there, we expect some improvement from last year's players.  Still have a lot riding in the "hope" basket from what I'm seeing.  Hope is not a strategy, and while I applaud him for getting the JUCO guys lined up due to an immediate need, that's not the path to success for Arkansas long term IMO.   

The next two seasons will illustrate whether or not MA can recruit at the level necessary to have long term success, or if we're going to have to rely on JUCO channels as band-aid fixes.  I hope we see success next season, and it translates into being on more top recruits' radars.  Next season...really is a BIG deal in my mind for MA.  He's gotten a pass this year for losing guys early, but the detractors will still reference it as a negative if/when we don't improve next season.

I think it would benefit the team to somehow sneak into the NIT, but that's going to require a stellar performance from here out, and likely a trip to the finals of the SECT.  I don't see much chance of that with our struggles on the road... 

[HoopS]

All teams hope. There are no guarantees in anything.

[azhog10]

Very consistent hard nosed defense can win you so many games when the offense is so up and down.  Mike talks a good game about wanting his team to play good defense but our team doesn't always display that.  I think Mike needs to step up   his recruiting of his kind of players that love to play defense as well as can put the ball in the hole.

What is interesting is when we play great defense, and we've played very good defense a handful of times. There's very little chatter about how CMA really did a great job stepping up and getting his guys ready in the days before. But when we play bad defense, like apparently from week to week he changes how he teaches his defense, it's about how we weren't prepared and CMA didn't "step up". For a coach your base defense is taught the same every day, every week. If and when players don't play the way they are supposed to, it doesn't mean the coach just didn't teach it that week. Part of having inexeperienced players has a lot to do with the lack or rotation, help, and focus on knowing where ball and man are. I'm not a huge fan of our defensive scheme, but i'm also not a fan of the Syracuse defensive scheme. Doesn't mean that neither work. They work when you have guys that are focused and doing what they are supposed to do. When you have youth and inexperience you lose that consistent focus.

It's easy to blame the coach for that, and lord knows he's been blamed enough for having to play the players that he's had to play. But that doens't mean that he isn't teaching defense or doesn't know how to "teach" his system.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

Naw, they don't need Moses to be good next season, but they could be great with him.

You guys have a LOT of faith in guys who haven't made it to campus yet.
A lot of JUCOs need a half to full season to transition.  I really doubt all three JUCOs transition within the first eight games.

[Biggus Piggus]

You guys have a LOT of faith in guys who haven't made it to campus yet.
A lot of JUCOs need a half to full season to transition.  I really doubt all three JUCOs transition within the first eight games.

These are not your average jucos. Seriously. These guys would be starting now.

[The_Iceman]

These are not your average jucos. Seriously. These guys would be starting now.

Here is some video on Arlando Cook from a game in late January. Definitely a solid 6'8". Hard to play the post in JUCO, but he was effective. Needs to eliminate a few moves that won't work in SEC, but a solid addition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hre5zDTKMs

And of Barford (#0 White). Definitely worth the high rating. Immediate impact. Don't see him as a PG tho. If you had any doubt on how good this kid is, this should eliminate it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_sWzLAjw04

[ArkansasI]

So, it boils down to this.  We HOPE that the JUCO guys will qualify academically, and translate immediately to SEC caliber talent.  We HOPE that Kingsley stays.  From there, we expect some improvement from last year's players.  Still have a lot riding in the "hope" basket from what I'm seeing.  Hope is not a strategy, and while I applaud him for getting the JUCO guys lined up due to an immediate need, that's not the path to success for Arkansas long term IMO.   

The next two seasons will illustrate whether or not MA can recruit at the level necessary to have long term success, or if we're going to have to rely on JUCO channels as band-aid fixes.  I hope we see success next season, and it translates into being on more top recruits' radars.  Next season...really is a BIG deal in my mind for MA.  He's gotten a pass this year for losing guys early, but the detractors will still reference it as a negative if/when we don't improve next season.

I think it would benefit the team to somehow sneak into the NIT, but that's going to require a stellar performance from here out, and likely a trip to the finals of the SECT.  I don't see much chance of that with our struggles on the road... 

Come on now...

I'm pretty critical of Mike, but I'm not sure that he should be criticized for offering us HOPE.  I think it's about the only thing we have left.

[urkillnmesmalls]

All teams hope. There are no guarantees in anything.

I think there is one guarantee.  It absolutely could get worse if they get rid of MA.  The flip side is, I'm fearful that what we're seeing is evidence that "you can't expect different results by doing the same things over and over."  Resources aren't going to get better, and our recruiting grounds are fairly constant, so something needs to change.  Maybe it's as simple as bringing in some assistants who are great recruiters, or winning big next year, or as extreme as needing a new coach....I don't know. 

I just know that the UA has a lot invested in the BB program, and at some point...things have to change and move from mostly mediocre ones to an occasional good one....to mostly good seasons with occasional great ones.         

[urkillnmesmalls]

Come on now...

I'm pretty critical of Mike, but I'm not sure that he should be criticized for offering us HOPE.  I think it's about the only thing we have left.

Hey, I'm the first to say that I think we're closer than many people think.  I'm highly critical of his coaching at times, and it drives me nuts...but the truth is, it's not much different than how Cal coaches at KY...he just has much better talent. 

Said it before...I'll say it again...Nolan's success was as much about the bizarre mix of talent we had, along with the kids' playing with chips on their shoulders and reflecting Nolan's attitude, as it was anything else.  Was it a fluke?  I don't know...maybe, sorta, kinda.  But...the fact remains that if MA can stumble onto something similar, there's no reason to believe we can't see similar results.  However, at some point...hope takes a back seat to results.   

[The_Iceman]

I think there is one guarantee.  It absolutely could get worse if they get rid of MA.  The flip side is, I'm fearful that what we're seeing is evidence that "you can't expect different results by doing the same things over and over."  Resources aren't going to get better, and our recruiting grounds are fairly constant, so something needs to change.  Maybe it's as simple as bringing in some assistants who are great recruiters, or winning big next year, or as extreme as needing a new coach....I don't know. 

I just know that the UA has a lot invested in the BB program, and at some point...things have to change and move from mostly mediocre ones to an occasional good one....to mostly good seasons with occasional great ones.         

The chips are falling into place the next two seasons for Mike to see the program become attractive again to recruits and a player on the national stage again. We saw a glimpse last year, but this last offseason was brutal on that momentum.

Biggus already laid out the 2017 roster above. After the 2017 season, we lose Kingsley, Hannahs, and Watkins. We know of 6'10" 4-star (#29 overall player) Daniel Gafford already coming in. So that team should be just as good that season as well with the JUCO's entering year 2 here.

If Mike is able to get to the tournament the next two season, maybe even get a Sweet 16 in one of those, you could see us become popular again in state with recruits and also in the region. But, if Mike squanders away this chance, it could take 3-5 years to rebuild this thing with the next coach.

[lynbug]

I think there is one guarantee.  It absolutely could get worse if they get rid of MA.  The flip side is, I'm fearful that what we're seeing is evidence that "you can't expect different results by doing the same things over and over."  Resources aren't going to get better, and our recruiting grounds are fairly constant, so something needs to change.  Maybe it's as simple as bringing in some assistants who are great recruiters, or winning big next year, or as extreme as needing a new coach....I don't know. 

I just know that the UA has a lot invested in the BB program, and at some point...things have to change and move from mostly mediocre ones to an occasional good one....to mostly good seasons with occasional great ones.         

I think that sentence pretty much sums up most fans opinions.  For all the investing in bldgs., to  catering to prima donna's and not getting a commit to off-season debacles to analyzing everything 6 ways from sunday.......we're still waiting.  (And I might add I'm dazed and confused) 

[redleg]

Since we are throwing out predictions.....

I say the Hogs win at Alabama tonight, upset South Carolina in Fayetteville on Saturday, gets a #6 seed in the SEC Tournament (17-14 overall, 10-8 SEC), beats the #11 seed Miss St in round two, upsets the #3 seed Vandy in the quarterfinals, loses to #2 seed TAM or UK in semifinals, accepts a bid to the post-season NIT, hosts two games in Fayetteville, then loses game three on the road, Hogs finish (21-16).
Moses Kingsley will be selected 1st Team SEC, and named the SEC's Most Improved Player.

:razorback:

[ShadowHawg]

I never post, but I now feel I should...

I remember hearing (radio) and reading (forums) at the beginning of the season that this season was a wash.  We are now at 15-14 overall, and 8-7 in SEC.  That is average, and we exceeded most peoples expectations.

Yet, some people will continue to complain, I hope that is not the majority!

BTW, OP was very good!

It is strange that so many who were predicting a bad season are now claiming that the team has under performed.

Not been a fun season, but you can see that if there are no surprises heading into next season, this program will be taking a big step forward with the new guys that are coming.

[ArkansasI]

Here is some video on Arlando Cook from a game in late January. Definitely a solid 6'8". Hard to play the post in JUCO, but he was effective. Needs to eliminate a few moves that won't work in SEC, but a solid addition.

And of Barford (#0 White). Definitely worth the high rating. Immediate impact. Don't see him as a PG tho. If you had any doubt on how good this kid is, this should eliminate it.

Not disagreeing with you... but geez, these juco games are played more as exhibitions.  No wonder it can be hard to see what you have in these guys.

I saw several players with skills.  Very little intensity.  I hope you're right.

[Jim Harris]

Alabama is an excellent defensive team that struggles to score. The Tide has beaten some very good scoring teams (Notre Dame, Clemson, aTm, LSU) and some very good defensive teams (Wichita State, aTm, Florida, South Carolina). Bama has the most difficulty against opponents with great all-around FG % defense -- shot-denial defense that doesn't put them on the line much. Arkansas is the antithesis of that + will lose soundly at Tuscaloosa.

Good call. Now my wife wants to know why somebody else owns our house today. "I took Alabama and gave the points because Biggus said the Hogs would lose soundly" didn't make a lick of sense to her.

[Biggus Piggus]

Good call. Now my wife wants to know why somebody else owns our house today. "I took Alabama and gave the points because Biggus said the Hogs would lose soundly" didn't make a lick of sense to her.

Call me shocked. Arkansas had lost seven straight at Tuscaloosa. Bama was by far the best 3pt defensive team in the SEC, but it didn't matter, because the Hogs killed em on the boards. Dominated the boards? Wild.

[Biggus Piggus]

Now watch them lose on senior day.

[Atlhogfan1]

I believe Bama and AU are the two worst rebounding teams in the conference.  Outrebounding SC would be a surprise. 

[HoopS]

Now watch them lose on senior day.

I was leaning that way until you said that.

[blu]

So we have a good shot at 17-14, 10-8 going into the SECT. We go 1-1, at 18-15 we should have a good possibility of a NIT bid. With what we lost last year, that really ain't too shabby.

[gmarv]

Now watch them lose on senior day.

your reverse predicting is working so far, keep it up.

[Dominicanhog]

So we have a good shot at 17-14, 10-8 going into the SECT. We go 1-1, at 18-15 we should have a good possibility of a NIT bid. With what we lost last year, that really ain't too shabby.

Agree that would not be shabby, but we're winning at least 3 in the tourney... this team ain't close to done, their just getting started ... they are playing defense now and that will be be the difference... :razorback:

[Biggus Piggus]

Now watch them lose on senior day.