2017-18 Analysis and Projection

[LadybackBBFan]

Although we went to the NCAA tournament three years ago in JD first year, none of our current players were on that roster.  Therefore, none have been to a post season tournament.  It would be nice to have our loyal Juniors and our one Senior get to a post season tournament this year - realistically that would have to be a WNIT bid.  To be eligible, you must finish .500 or above.  That means we must be no worse than 15 - 14 at the end of the regular season or win more games in the SEC tournament than we loose.  Either case will be hard to do this year, but not impossible.
I predict that we will go 9 - 4 non-conference winning our three home games and loosing to Arizona State on the road.  Most of you will probably agree with me on this so I will not bother with any further explanation.
To reach 15 - 14 in the season, we would have to win at least six games in conference while loosing no more than 10.  That is possible, but is a significant improvement from last year when we only won two games in spite of having more talent (JJ and Cooley).  To do that we have to have no injuries or sickness of our key 9 players (I include Weaver in the 9), we have to shoot better (which means better shots according to coach as we do not have good shooters as a team) and better rebounding (according to coach and Devin this is all effort), and in my opinion we need to be able to use Weaver where required and she needs to be effective as she was in Nebraska.
I project that we a slightly better than 50% chance to win four conference games at home and one road victory.  We have one player on our roster over 6' 1" tall (Weaver) and I have looked at what every team in the SEC has that I think we can beat - they all have more than one that plays and impacts the game.  We start with Ole Miss who is 8 - 1 with four players over 6' 1" including three that play who are 6' 5" and two at 6' 2".  I have that as a win because we play at home.  After loosing at Mississippi State, we play Alabama at home.  They are 5  3 with two of there three over 6' 1" playing including 6' 5" and 6' 3".  Even though they beat Oklahoma, I have that game a victory.  After two games on the road which I will discuss later, we play Florida at home.  They are 5 - 4 including a loss to Arkansas State so we have to beat them.  They have two 6' 3 " players who are their leading scorers plus two 6' 2" players who play.  That is the last victory with a slightly better than 50% shot until Feb. 18 when we play LSU at home.  Although they are only 4 - 3, they played Texas well and beat Texas Tech.  They have 5 players on their roster ranging in ht. from 6' 2" to 6' 6" with all of them except one playing significant minutes.  Our final victory should be at Vanderbilt on the last day of the season.  Vanderbilt is only 3 - 7 and are coming off of a bad year last year.  They have 5 players over 6' 1" tall with four of them being 6' 5".  Four of them play significant minutes.  I hope to be at that game as the SEC tournament starts three days later in Nashville.
If we can win these five games or come close with four, their are four games that I believe we have a shot - Kentucky at home and Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia on the road.  Kentucky has 3 players over 6' 2" but none over 6' 3".  Auburn has four players that it uses over 6' 1" with six on the roster.  Georgia uses three with six on their roster.  Hopefully you can see why we have to recruit height.  I do not see us beating Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, or Missouri on the road, nor do I see us beating Texas A & M, Tennessee, or Missouri at home.
If we only win five conference games we could still become eligible by winning on Wednesday and Thursday in the SEC tournament.
Another key to winning games is our shooting which I will address in the next post as this is getting long. 

[flippinhogmana]

You can take the coach of the floor but but that doesn't mean you take the coach out of the game does it?

As I recall we kind of did the last two years.  Sad to say the hogs under performed those two years (under their capabilities).  It saddens me every time I think about Cosper having so much more fun - why?  Because I think about Alicia Cooley and JJ.  I wish that MN would have gotten to coach the two of them.  But that aside, I dont think that the hogs will UNDER-perform this year. 

I too have taken a look ahead (but I didn't take a look that far, not that deep into the conference).  As far as preseason, though I agree with your analysis and what you think it yields.  I took another look at ASU for example - their two losses are in a tournament back to back to first MSU and then to Green Bay.  Green Bay beat them worse than MSU did - and then MSU beat Green Bay worse than they had ASU.  You never know how emotions play, especially in tournaments.  There can be a team that gets especially hot (or one who goes especially cold).  It will be exciting and they wont lack effort, one way or another.

[LadybackBBFan]

This is a continuation of the first post as I will discuss our shooting.  Coach states that he is a big statistics person as was I when I coached - whether it was basketball or fast pitch or slow pitch softball.  Our team stats are as follows: total: .366, 3 point: .279, and 2 pt. only: .430.  In my opinion these need to be at least as follows for us to really win as many games as I have predicted: total: .400, 3Pt.: .300, and 2 pt.: .450 which will require some better shots with confidence as coach has stated.
As Monk and Cosper are our leading scorers, I took a look at their stats.  They are shooting  combined numbers as follows: Total: .397, 3 pt: .307, and 2 pt.: .474 - so they are exceeding the numbers that I have established for the team.  However, I think they both can do better and both will do better as the season goes forth.  A further proof of their contribution is that they have taken 49% of the team shots and made 55% of the team's total points.
Where then does the improvement have to come from.  Eight players have played the majority of the minutes so I have left the others out of this analysis.   An example is Weaver has taken only two shots this year and made one.  Adding in three players whose stats exceed both the team's total and three point shooting percentages, I get the following stats for these five players: Total: .396, 3 pt.: .325, and 2 pt.: .444 so you see that these five are almost on target and I believe will improve as the season goes on.
Unfortunately we have three players whose stats are as follows: total: .250, 3 pt.: .138, and 2 pt.: .365.  As these players do get a lot of minutes and a coach at a college level can not have players who are afraid to shoot, these players need significant improvement to at least the following: Total: .350, 3pt.: .250 and 2pt.: .400.  That could get us to 15 wins with improved free throw shooting where we are at .636 as a team and need to be at .700.  Finally we are going to have to have 40 minutes of effort on the rebounding end, no slow starts, and run against some of the bigger slower post players - especially Ole Miss to start the season as their post players are slow and slower.  South Alabama should have beat them today.

[flippinhogmana]

I think Mason will improve as the year continues, and I hope Swinson will get in the swing, too.  IMHO, its Weaver who has to improve for us to have much of a chance in a lot of games in conference, and both her and Williams have to improve on their ft percentage.  I like it that both Williams and Weaver are good offensive rebounders (I like all or almost all of Weaver's boards are offensive boards).  But it doesnt do much good if you can hit at the charity stripe (except it gets the other teams bigs in foul trouble eventually if they fall you on the putbacks). 

[LadybackBBFan]

I think Mason will improve as the year continues, and I hope Swinson will get in the swing, too.  IMHO, its Weaver who has to improve for us to have much of a chance in a lot of games in conference, and both her and Williams have to improve on their ft percentage.  I like it that both Williams and Weaver are good offensive rebounders (I like all or almost all of Weaver's boards are offensive boards).  But it doesnt do much good if you can hit at the charity stripe (except it gets the other teams bigs in foul trouble eventually if they fall you on the putbacks). 

I expect Mason to shoot more and score more.  Mason is actually shooting slightly better from the 3pt line than she is on 2 pt.  She always pulls up for a 10 - 15' jump shot rather than going to the board and getting fouled. Williams free throw % was not too bad until the last game where she shot about 50% of her year's total free throws.  Weaver has only shot two for the year, and I think she will be fine shooting.

[flippinhogmana]

I agree it was a small sample size but it nearly cost us the game.   Hopefully that wasnt a true indication of what they will do the rest of the year.