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Which team shows the most potential for improvement?

Started by Bacon_Bitz, July 25, 2017, 12:44:13 pm

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Bacon_Bitz

Take a look at these conference records from the past four years.  Which team shows an upward trajectory that might be indicative of another step forward in 2017 and 2018?

Conference records from 2013-14 then 2015-16
Team 1 - 14-2 then 15-1
Team 2 - 9-7 then 10-6
Team 3- 11-5 then 7-9
Team 4 - 9-7 then 7-9
Team 5 - 8-8 then 8-8
Team 6 - 7-9 then 8-8
Team 7 - 2-14 then 8-8

hogcard1964

Quote from: Bacon_Bitz on July 25, 2017, 12:44:13 pm
Take a look at these conference records from the past four years.  Which team shows an upward trajectory that might be indicative of another step forward in 2017 and 2018?

Conference records from 2013-14 then 2015-16
Team 1 - 14-2 then 15-1
Team 2 - 9-7 then 10-6
Team 3- 11-5 then 7-9
Team 4 - 9-7 then 7-9
Team 5 - 8-8 then 8-8
Team 6 - 7-9 then 8-8
Team 7 - 2-14 then 8-8

Teams 1 and 2.  The rest are meh.

 

Bacon_Bitz


bennyl08

Quote from: Bacon_Bitz on July 25, 2017, 12:44:13 pm
Take a look at these conference records from the past four years.  Which team shows an upward trajectory that might be indicative of another step forward in 2017 and 2018?

Conference records from 2013-14 then 2015-16
Team 1 - 14-2 then 15-1
Team 2 - 9-7 then 10-6
Team 3- 11-5 then 7-9
Team 4 - 9-7 then 7-9
Team 5 - 8-8 then 8-8
Team 6 - 7-9 then 8-8
Team 7 - 2-14 then 8-8

By default, teams 3 and 4 simply because they have the lowest record and thus the most potential for improvement. That's a pretty boring question to ask though.

A much more interesting thread would be which records indicate the largest probability of improvement. For that, improvement can take on many meanings. I.e. It is a much bigger step to go from 7-9 wins up to 10-12 wins than it is to go from 1-2 wins up to 4-7 wins. So, even though quantitatively, the jump is identical, the ease of actually accomplishing such a feat is very much non linear.

Team 1: Is already at it's peak. Not much room for improvement nor likelihood of improvement.
Team 2: Improved by 1 win over a 2 year period. Has 6 more possible wins. If this team has been at the cusp of going over the hump and has been building, it might not take much of a push to get them there. Think Oregon and Wisconsin. Both were good conference teams before Kelly or Bielema but couldn't quite become national contenders until the new coaches. Or a similar situation to something like MSU or Auburn where all it takes is a Prescott or Newton respectively to push that team to the next level.
Team 3: On the plus side, they were recently doing quite well, but had a 2 year drop. Would need to see a longer history. Was that 11-5 anomalously good, or the 7-9 anomalously low? Or, is this team similar to an Auburn that can easily go 10-2, 4-8, 11-1, and 3-9 in 4 consecutive years and that seem quite normal?
Team 4/5/6: These are all pretty much the same. Each team hovering right around 500 over a 4 year stretch. There really isn't enough to project going forward here. This is practically the same diagnosis as for team 2. Any of these teams could be building up and ready to explode to the next level, they could be capped at their maximum, or this could be a historically good stretch for them (a la vandy) and they will eventually regress back to the mean.
Team 7: Lots of possibilities here. I mean, this could easily be Arkansas, Auburn, OM, or Vanderbilt. Could be a team that had an uncharacteristically bad time for 2 years, then built back up and could continue that trend moving forward, could be a team that had an uncharacteristically bad time and regressed back to the mean where they will stay, or it could be a bad team that has recently had uncharacteristically good seasons and will likely regress.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on July 25, 2017, 02:04:33 pm
Teams 1 and 2.  The rest are meh.

Bama gonna be good again this year? I bet you're excited.

Biggus Piggus

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