CFN preview

[LRRandy]

http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/arkansas-razorbacks-preview-2017

Pretty objective.

[Al Boarland]

Agreed. Somehow pulling out 9 wins would be a great season.

[hogcard1964]

It's a good read except for his analogy on the Texas A & M game loser.  Neither of those coaches will be "in trouble".

[BRHogfan]

How does this guy have Brian Wallace ahead of Ragnow?

[East TN HAWG]

How does this guy have Brian Wallace ahead of Ragnow?

Probably looked at recruiting rankings, and made the call.  Ragnow should be 1 or 2. 

[Hogwild]

It's a good read except for his analogy on the Texas A & M game loser.  Neither of those coaches will be "in trouble".

I disagree, Sumlin's seat is probably the hottest in the SEC right now.  And under the scenario he described, us starting the season 1-2, with October slate of @ South Carolina, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Ole Miss, would not put CBB in a comfortable position.

[rljjr]

Pretty well researched and written, but instead of looking at the negative of RWIII's retirement I choose to look at the positive and feel like our other RB Williams and Chase Hayden will be vying to be the other 1,000 yard rusher. It could even be Hammonds. I feel really good about the backfield like I did when Jonathan Williams went down and Collins became the featured back. The difference for me now is that Whaley, Williams, Hammonds and Hayden can be an awesome four-headed monster.

I also think, even though it is early and unproven, this defense will be light years better. Attitude makes up for a lot, and from what we've heard about last year's dissension, this new defense may just decide to run through the ball carrier with reckless abandon.

As with every season hope springs anew. I'll choose to believe in us until I'm proven wrong.

[hogcard1964]

I disagree, Sumlin's seat is probably the hottest in the SEC right now.  And under the scenario he described, us starting the season 1-2, with October slate of @ South Carolina, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Ole Miss, would not put CBB in a comfortable position.

You may be right.

http://coacheshotseat.com/

[Al Boarland]

I disagree, Sumlin's seat is probably the hottest in the SEC right now.  And under the scenario he described, us starting the season 1-2, with October slate of @ South Carolina, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Ole Miss, would not put CBB in a comfortable position.

No doubt about it.  A slow start will absolutely kill the season.

[gchamblee]

You may be right.

http://coacheshotseat.com/

Lol at that blog site created with AOL Tools.

[gchamblee]

I don't take anyone serious that counts his first year against him. Bottle that up.

[hogcard1964]

No doubt about it.  A slow start will absolutely kill the season.

Yes, it probably would, but our coach is Teflon for some strange reason.  That is, barring any off the field issues he's untouchable.  He could win 3 games again, and the fan base would still claim to like the direction and be content.

[hogcard1964]

I expect 9 wins but I do think the loser of aTm game will cause someone to be looking a job.  Sumlin isn't on the hot seat, he's "pants on fire" and I just don't think BB will have any more excuses to sell JL with another 7-6 finish.  I know some fans are kissing his butt all the way to his front door, but his performance is clearly a failure with another 7-6.  Why not?  Are we Vandy now?  7-6 gets him fired!

It should, but it won't.

[Al Boarland]

It should, but it won't.

I agree, but if that happens no one is going to be able to come up with a way we will better in '18.  It will be a rebuilding year without question.

[DeltaBoy]

9 would be GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LZH]

Are we Vandy now?

No, but it's not like we aren't trying.......

[LRRandy]

I agree, but if that happens no one is going to be able to come up with a way we will better in '18.  It will be a rebuilding year without question.

he now has the RWIII injury card in his back pocket. It will be a talking point if the team doesn't get to 8 wins. 8 wins probably gets him an extension which is equally sad.

[ricepig]

I expect 9 wins but I do think the loser of aTm game will cause someone to be looking a job.  Sumlin isn't on the hot seat, he's "pants on fire" and I just don't think BB will have any more excuses to sell JL with another 7-6 finish.  I know some fans are kissing his butt all the way to his front door, but his performance is clearly a failure with another 7-6.  Why not?  Are we Vandy now?  7-6 gets him fired!

I'll take that bet for any amount you wish to put up.

[hogcard1964]

I agree, but if that happens no one is going to be able to come up with a way we will better in '18.  It will be a rebuilding year without question.

If his recruiting has been as good as advertised, and the schemes aren't drastically different,  there shouldn't be a rebuild.

[GuvHog]

I'll take that bet for any amount you wish to put up.

You are underestimating the higher ups and big money boosters that push Jeff Long's buttons.

That being said, I see the Hogs winning more than 7 games.

[ricepig]

You are underestimating the higher ups and big money boosters that push Jeff Long's buttons.

That being said, I see the Hogs winning more than 7 games.

Oh, ok, that means a lot coming from you. The same bet goes for you, name your poison on Bielema getting fired for winning 7 games.

[GuvHog]

Oh, ok, that means a lot coming from you. The same bet goes for you, name your poison on Bielema getting fired for winning 7 games.

Like I said, I don't believe it'll be an issue because I believe they'll win more than 7 games.

[Hawgar The Horrible]

Like I said, I don't believe it'll be an issue because I believe they'll win more than 7 games.

Guv, you don't know any "higher ups" I've been provided a grand tour of every athletic facility on campus, after hours, riding the coat tail of a "higher up". All night long it was "Yes sir" or "No sir"  Have you?

[Deep Shoat]

I'll take that bet for any amount you wish to put up.

Save some of that action for me!! 

[greasy_corner]

he now has the RWIII injury card in his back pocket. It will be a talking point if the team doesn't get to 8 wins. 8 wins probably gets him an extension which is equally sad.

Speaking of sad...leave RWIII out of your commentary. 

[LRRandy]

Speaking of sad...leave RWIII out of your commentary.

I said nothing to disrespect the injured running back. I merely pointed out that losing the leading rusher on the team could turn into a talking point for unrealized expectations regarding improvement in the win total.

[gchamblee]

I said nothing to disrespect the injured running back. I merely pointed out that losing the leading rusher on the team could turn into a talking point for unrealized expectations regarding improvement in the win total.

Do you think it is a legit setback?

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

 I really like CBB and I really want this to work.

However, next year needs to not be more of the same. An 8-5 Auburn team made us look worse than when Nutt's 05 team tried to play with USC with Lienart and Bush.

Plus the blown leads have got to stop. Its not just the last two games in 16. This has happened just about every year going back to year 1 when we blew a 24-7 lead against Rutgers.

[LRRandy]

Do you think it is a legit setback?

it can't help but be.

[Hogwild]

I know some fans are kissing his butt all the way to his front door, but his performance is clearly a failure with another 7-6.

Why not?  Are we Vandy now?  7-6 gets him fired!

[PorkRinds]

he now has the RWIII injury card in his back pocket. It will be a talking point if the team doesn't get to 8 wins. 8 wins probably gets him an extension which is equally sad.

You stay classy.

[Al Boarland]

If his recruiting has been as good as advertised, and the schemes aren't drastically different,  there shouldn't be a rebuild.

Advertised by who? The staff and fans? The recruiting isn't that great.

24/7 composite
'14 > 28
'15 > 21
'16 > 23
'17 > 24

I'm sure you know where the rest of the SECw comes in, but the above advertising shows classes rankled below our competition. The talent has not been upgraded significantly while CBB has been here.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Advertised by who? The staff and fans? The recruiting isn't that great.

24/7 composite
'14 > 28
'15 > 21
'16 > 23
'17 > 24

I'm sure you know where the rest of the SECw comes in, but the above advertising shows classes rankled below our competition. The talent has not been upgraded significantly while CBB has been here.

It is about the same place (in terms of rankings) that it has been since 2010 with the exception of that class being ranked #41. The difference being, how productive those classes become after a 3 year development program. Initial class rankings for most schools aren't indicative of how good that class will wind up being.

[LRRandy]

I said nothing to disrespect the injured running back. I merely pointed out that losing the leading rusher on the team could turn into a talking point for unrealized expectations regarding improvement in the win total.

You stay classy.

[factchecker]

Advertised by who? The staff and fans? The recruiting isn't that great.

Our recruiting is not great BUT it is on average better:

Houston Nutt Recruiting Cycle: (I couldn't find reliable #s past 2002)

2002: 25  http://247sports.com/Season/2002-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2003: 42  http://247sports.com/Season/2003-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2004: 24  http://247sports.com/Season/2004-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2005: 28  http://247sports.com/Season/2005-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2006: 25  http://247sports.com/Season/2006-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2007: 38  http://247sports.com/Season/2007-Football/CompositeTeamRankings

Houston Nutt's Average Recruiting Class(final 6 cycles):  30.3

Bobby Petrino Recruiting Cycle:

2008: 27  http://247sports.com/Season/2008-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2009: 21  http://247sports.com/Season/2009-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2010: 41  http://247sports.com/Season/2010-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2011: 21  http://247sports.com/Season/2011-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2012: 28  http://247sports.com/Season/2012-Football/CompositeTeamRankings

Bobby Petrino's Average Recruiting Class: 27.6

Bret Bielema Recruiting Cycle:

2013: 23  http://247sports.com/Season/2013-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2014: 29  http://247sports.com/Season/2014-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2015: 23  http://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2016: 26  http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2017: 28  http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CompositeTeamRankings

Bret Bielema's Average Recruiting Class: 25.8

What hurts us the most is exactly what you said.....competition.  You put our recruiting ranking in the BIG 12 or almost any other conference and we are either in the middle or towards the top not the bottom:



BUT you never know how well we would recruit if we were in a different conference.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I said nothing to disrespect the injured running back. I merely pointed out that losing the leading rusher on the team could turn into a talking point for unrealized expectations regarding improvement in the win total.

I'm sure that most HC's might speak of a set back in their backfield by losing a RB that led the conference in rushing last year during the regular season, and that would certainly be viewed by most as a quite normal and reasonable thing to do. But if Bielema mentions it, it is just making excuses.

[jkstock04]

I can tell you exactly what it is, Jeff Long is beyond excellent at selling and marketing the program to fans. They push the game day experience and put a major emphasis on APR/grades/honor roll stuff. Most of the fan base is convinced that the past 5 years have been awesome, and it's 100% inevitable it is only going to get much better.

It's all about marketing...for example remember when they were pushing us basically as O-line U? That was a major brand that year going into the season. They pushed it so hard how big and dominant that offensive line was, that everyone conveniently forgot that to end the regular season the year before it was the same O-line that got man handled and embarrassed by a smaller and weaker Mizzou d-line.

I've said it before, you do seriously have to hand it to the guy. He knows how to sell and market an athletic program to fans. In that since I would wager he really may be the best AD in the country. I haven't seen the exact numbers but I would bet every year since 2012 even...$$$$$ is constantly on the uptick. Obviously that's not due to the football team winning a bunch of games. It's the positive vibes they push out putting an emphasis on whatever they can find that is positive, feel good stuff like grades and game day experience.

[Al Boarland]

It is about the same place (in terms of rankings) that it has been since 2010 with the exception of that class being ranked #41. The difference being, how productive those classes become after a 3 year development program. Initial class rankings for most schools aren't indicative of how good that class will wind up being.

Every program is a development program.  If you don't develop players you won't be around very long.  The assertion that CBB and Co are somehow head and shoulders better at developing players that are not ranked as high as other staffs developing players is not realistic.  I'll give you the low attrition numbers b/c I think it is an important factor.  However, it is about the clay you have to work with.  Every decent program develops their players.  I don't think we have a competitive advantage there.

[ricepig]

I can tell you exactly what it is, Jeff Long is beyond excellent at selling and marketing the program to fans. They push the game day experience and put a major emphasis on APR/grades/honor roll stuff. Most of the fan base is convinced that the past 5 years have been awesome, and it's 100% inevitable it is only going to get much better.

It's all about marketing...for example remember when they were pushing us basically as O-line U? That was a major brand that year going into the season. They pushed it so hard how big and dominant that offensive line was, that everyone conveniently forgot that to end the regular season the year before it was the same O-line that got man handled and embarrassed by a smaller and weaker Mizzou d-line.

I've said it before, you do seriously have to hand it to the guy. He knows how to sell and market an athletic program to fans. In that since I would wager he really may be the best AD in the country. I haven't seen the exact numbers but I would bet every year since 2012 even...$$$$$ is constantly on the uptick. Obviously that's not due to the football team winning a bunch of games. It's the positive vibes they push out putting an emphasis on whatever they can find that is positive, feel good stuff like grades and game day experience.

Everyone markets, do you think they should push our negatives?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Every program is a development program.  If you don't develop players you won't be around very long.  The assertion that CBB and Co are somehow head and shoulders better at developing players that are not ranked as high as other staffs developing players is not realistic.  I'll give you the low attrition numbers b/c I think it is an important factor.  However, it is about the clay you have to work with.  Every decent program develops their players.  I don't think we have a competitive advantage there.

I don't think I indicated anywhere in my post that I thought we had an advantage over other schools in terms of developing players. I do believe that all players can be developed and made better than they were in high school whether they are 5 stars, 4 stars, etc. Some develop and get better, some never realize their full potential for one reason or another. In probably more cases than anyone realizes, the kids who are ranked 4 stars may not be as good as their ranking. Sometimes 5 stars work out that way as well. And I think we all know that there is a big difference in playing in HS and then strapping it up against the best college talent in the country and that is exactly why some excel and some shrink from the challenge.

So again, the best way to evaluate a class is usually about 3 years after they arrive on campus.

[LRRandy]

I'm sure that most HC's might speak of a set back in their backfield by losing a RB that led the conference in rushing last year during the regular season, and that would certainly be viewed by most as a quite normal and reasonable thing to do. But if Bielema mentions it, it is just making excuses.

my stance really wasn't knocking Bielema. I simply stated that it would be a talking point. Yet another reason not to achieve.  My thoughts on Bielema have turned 360 degrees from when he as hired. At that time I thought he was a punk. Based on how he talked while he was coach at Wisconsin the sound bites I heard was nothing but arrogant, pompous buffoonery. I did think (hesitantly) that he was a good football coach. Having witnessed his compassion for his players, I now think he is a pretty decent man. I have been witness however to the fact that he may not be as good a football coach as I was giving him credit for. There have been collapses and missteps each and every season that leave you scratching your head. Standing off to the side alone while his team was in free fall during the Va. Tech game was puzzling. All coaches face adversity and personnel losses each season. Bielema hasn't seemed to be able to overcome any of that and lead his team above the mediocrity that it has been mired in since he inherited a dumpster fire.

[Al Boarland]

I don't think I indicated anywhere in my post that I thought we had an advantage over other schools in terms of developing players. I do believe that all players can be developed and made better than they were in high school whether they are 5 stars, 4 stars, etc. Some develop and get better, some never realize their full potential for one reason or another. In probably more cases than anyone realizes, the kids who are ranked 4 stars may not be as good as their ranking. Sometimes 5 stars work out that way as well. And I think we all know that there is a big difference in playing in HS and then strapping it up against the best college talent in the country and that is exactly why some excel and some shrink from the challenge.

So again, the best way to evaluate a class is usually about 3 years after they arrive on campus.

I agree some 4 and 5 stars are busts.  So, it comes down to evaluation.  Even if you miss on a 4 or 5 star some of the teams we compete with stack up 4 and 5 star talent, so if they miss there is another opportunity to hit.  I also agree it's more accurate after 3 years.  Everything is more accurate in hindsight, but that doesn't negate the fact that schools that recruit at a high level are the contenders. Especially in the SECw.

[jkstock04]

Everyone markets, do you think they should push our negatives?

No I do not. They have to do what they have to do...and I was complementary how well they do it.

But there is also nothing wrong with pointing out the elephant in the room.

[hogcard1964]

You stay classy.

Are you seriously insinuating that if and when we fail to live up to up to expectations again, the fan base won't attempt to use injuries, particularly the RWIII injury as a defense?

Hell, it's already started.  Yesterday someone here claimed they had us winning "9 maybe 10 games" prior to his injury, but now they had us at 7 or 8.

[ricepig]

No I do not. They have to do what they have to do...and I was complementary how well they do it.

But there is also nothing wrong with pointing out the elephant in the room.

So, doing ones job puts an elephant in the room, I guess you learn something new every day.

[ricepig]

No... the elephant was already there, but you didn't notice it because you were busy buying #uncommon t-shirts.

Yay Marketing!  Oh look, a puppy!

Uh, yeah, our SEC record since joining the conference has been there since 1992. I guess that's the elephant you are referring too.

[hogcard1964]

Advertised by who? The staff and fans? The recruiting isn't that great.

24/7 composite
'14 > 28
'15 > 21
'16 > 23
'17 > 24

I'm sure you know where the rest of the SECw comes in, but the above advertising shows classes rankled below our competition. The talent has not been upgraded significantly while CBB has been here.

Wait, I thought recruiting has improved drastically under Bret?

[Al Boarland]

Wait, I thought recruiting has improved drastically under Bret?

IMO, and according to the data, that is not accurate.  I'm not sure where that is coming from to be honest other than people thought CBB would take a bunch of diamonds in the rough and make them All-SEC type talents.  I will say it appears to be incrementally better, but definitely not to the level that some have as it pertains to their expectations for the program.  Sure, you can focus on getting a few more talented guys in, but when you look at the haves we are still very much a have not program.

I have pointed out a few myths commonly used on this board, but it never hurts to touch on them again.

1.  our team is working harder than everyone else
2.  everyone else will be the same or worse while we will be better
3.  the defense can't be any worse
4.  we are recruiting significantly better under CBB

[jkstock04]

Uh, yeah, our SEC record since joining the conference has been there since 1992. I guess that's the elephant you are referring too.

Without looking I'm going to say the last 5 years has been well below even our average performances since 1992. I'm talking about actual football on Saturdays, not APR scores and feely good stories.

The football program thrives and continues to do so because of ingenious marketing. That's the elephant in the room. If it lived/died off wins and losses these past 5 years would've been the death of it. Instead we are adding on to the stadium and gonna pack more people in there.

For the basketball program that doesn't work, there people look at bottom line wins/losses. If the wins aren't there the basketball program will sink into an abyss. Completely different set of circumstances for football. It's really quite interesting when you look at the dynamics of it all.

[DeltaBoy]

Improvement took a step back last year with those last 2 games and the embarrassment vs Tigger2.