Arkansas Baseball resume and RPI

[SPAL]

Ever since we built the wonderful Baum Stadium 20 years ago, I've been salivating at getting Texas at OUR place for an NCAA Regional.  Back in the day, before Baum and many other fine venues, only a select handful were anointed to host virtually every year - and Texas was one of them.  We've had to go there several times to advance, and we all know what a stacked deck that is.  Sure - year in and year out (especially in those days), Texas is/was good, to begin with.  But, there's a reason we got out of the Texas-based SWC, and home cooking officials are one of them.

So, turnabout is fair play.  Even since we've had Baum, we've had to to go Austin at least once (and, I believe, twice) for Regionals.  So, let's hope this early projection holds true, and the Longhorns come to our place for once.

Youngers, please save your time and energy about how we olders need to let loose of our obsession with Texas.  Yes, I understand the argument.  Yes, it has merit, and I do get that wins over SEC teams are a better thing to focus on these days.  All of that said, when you spend your first 40 years building up enmity for a rival, it never goes away.  While a win over Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU et al may be more important in some ways, a win over Texas in any sport is just soooooo satisfying.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

There might be 12k at baum for a game against texas

[Supermark101]

There might be 12k at baum for a game against texas

Hopefully not in the loseries bracket

[SPAL]

Up to 19 with the win...May not stay there.

[Kevin]

we didn't.

warren Nolan has us at 18 to start the day.

[Kevin]

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

hosting

Arkansas
Oklahoma
florida state
Bethune cookman

[Sho Nuff]

Wow, Florida State a 3 seed?

[dotnet]

would that give arkansas the hardest of every single seed? 

luckily... there are a lot more realistic places for FSU to go than Arkansas

[ricepig]

Looks like an easy regional.

[HogFansReunited]

Wow, Florida State a 3 seed?

And they took the first two games of their series with Clemson.

[BroyledNutts]

What is it with selection committees and bracket estimators? Multiple post season pair ups with North Carolina in Basketball, multiples with Florida State in Baseball. Have some imagination for goodness sake. How about taking one of LSU's cream puffs and swapping them with Oklahoma or FSU?

Amazes me that this bracket guess still has LSU, Florida, Kentucky, AND Mississippi State valued ahead of the Hogs.

[razCzar]

For the moment anyway, our #13 RPI jumps both LSU and MSU. 
Wondering how, I looked at all the RPI movement of the top SEC teams since Sunday:
   http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/rpi

Still can't figure how we moved up more than anybody, while KY had no change after beating then #5 Louisville.

Not complaining though.

RPI   Record vs. RPI Teams

#7KY / no change
1-50   10 - 8
51-100   3 - 2
101-200   6 - 2
201+   7 - 0

#9FL / up3
1-50   9 - 8
51-100   8 - 4
101-200   7 - 0
201+   1 - 0

#13AR / up5
1-50   7 - 4
51-100   4 - 3
101-200   12 - 1
201+   7 - 0

#14LSU / up3
1-50   10 - 9
51-100   2 - 1
101-200   8 - 2
201+   5 - 0

#16MSU / no change
1-50   12 - 10
51-100   3 - 3
101-200   6 - 1
201+   4 - 0

#21VU / up3
1-50   9 - 9
51-100   4 - 2
101-200   8 - 4
201+   2 - 0

#26SC / down4
1-50   8 - 9
51-100   5 - 1
101-200   7 - 3
201+   3 - 0

#27AU / up1
1-50   8 - 4
51-100   4 - 3
101-200   15 - 4
201+   1 - 0

#34AM / down1
1-50   6 - 10
51-100   2 - 0
101-200   10 - 2
201+   8 - 0

[SPAL]

Our SOS only jumped up 1. La tech over mcnese was a bug deal. They jumped back into the 30s

[DiamondHogFan]

I know there is a lot of baseball yet to be played and this is a bit pre-mature, but I'm curious what you guys think.  What would it take for us to continue to climb into a national seed spot?  Win all remaining SEC series with a couple sweeps?

[Kevin]

20 sec wins

[Wisco Pig]

Winning all five remaining series means that the Hogs would go no worse than 10-5 in the second half of conference play, and therefore would finish no worse than 21-9 in the SEC.   A 21-9 record would most likely be good enough to take first place in the conference.  To me, that would get the Hogs a national seed.

[dotnet]

Winning all five remaining series means that the Hogs would go no worse than 10-5 in the second half of conference play, and therefore would finish no worse than 21-9 in the SEC.   A 21-9 record would most likely be good enough to take first place in the conference.  To me, that would get the Hogs a national seed.

Best auburn and a&M on the road? Best vandy? Yeah... a national seed wouldn't even be a question.

[DiamondHogFan]

Winning all five remaining series means that the Hogs would go no worse than 10-5 in the second half of conference play, and therefore would finish no worse than 21-9 in the SEC.   A 21-9 record would most likely be good enough to take first place in the conference.  To me, that would get the Hogs a national seed.

That's what I was thinking.  Our SOS will continue to rise and as long as we are winning along with it, our RPI and rank will rise as well.  We are in for an exiting finish for sure.  This weekend in Auburn will go a long way towards deciding how we finish in conference seeding.  Win this series, and we are most definitely in the driver's seat.

That would put our only conference series loss being the one to LSU.  And we all know how that played out.  We were the better team for a majority of that weekend.

[Wisco Pig]

Best auburn and a&M on the road? Best vandy? Yeah... a national seed wouldn't even be a question.

My concern is that, even at 21-9, the tournament committee could look at the Hogs' SEC record and say, "Yeah, but they didn't play any of the top three teams in the East."

[jry04]

My concern is that, even at 21-9, the tournament committee could look at the Hogs' SEC record and say, "Yeah, but they didn't play any of the top three teams in the East."

Maybe, but Missouri and Vandy are only 1 game out of 2nd.

[Razrpig256]

My concern is that, even at 21-9, the tournament committee could look at the Hogs' SEC record and say, "Yeah, but they didn't play any of the top three teams in the East."

Also, our non-conference SOS is currently 122. Not ideal.

[southarkhog06]

My concern is that, even at 21-9, the tournament committee could look at the Hogs' SEC record and say, "Yeah, but they didn't play any of the top three teams in the East."

It would be a huge snub, like the biggest ever. When is the last time a team that won 21 SEC games, didn't just flop in non-con, and wasn't a National Seed?

[Kevin]

just keep adding to the number on the left. everything else takes care of itself

[jry04]

Also, our non-conference SOS is currently 122. Not ideal.

In my opinion, if teams like Missouri State can get national seeds in years where they play 10 good teams in 50 games, then we should if we win the SEC. It isn't like we haven't played anyone, they just haven't been as good as years past.

[ricepig]

In my opinion, if teams like Missouri State can get national seeds in years where they play 10 good teams in 50 games, then we should if we win the SEC. It isn't like we haven't played anyone, they just haven't been as good as years past.

Cinderella stories are much nicer to tell than a good solid program in a tough conference had a good year.

[onebadrubi]

Winner of sec conf baseball should be like winner of the the sec in football, automatic cfb playoff spot and should be automatic national seed.  win the next series, we really need a sweep somewhere in there though to try and make up for a lsu Saturday collapse. 

[Wisco Pig]

Maybe, but Missouri and Vandy are only 1 game out of 2nd.

Sure.  Certainly we have the second half of the SEC season to play.   It's understood that we are having an entirely speculative conversation here.

If Arkansas goes 21-9 in SEC play, to me that equals a national seed, but you never know what criteria the committee will and won't value.

[onebadrubi]

Sure.  Certainly we have the second half of the SEC season to play.   It's understood that we are having an entirely speculative conversation here.

If Arkansas goes 21-9 in SEC play, to me that equals a national seed, but you never know what criteria the committee will and won't value.

It will change to benefit teams they want where they want. We see all these committee guidelines as fluid as they can be

[PorkRyan]

Also, our non-conference SOS is currently 122. Not ideal.

Louisville has a non conference SOS of 206 and I bet it doesn't hurt them a bit when the seeding comes out.  TCU, Virginia, and Oregon State all have non conference RPI's around ours. 

[dotnet]

My concern is that, even at 21-9, the tournament committee could look at the Hogs' SEC record and say, "Yeah, but they didn't play any of the top three teams in the East."

The idea that Arkansas will win every series from here on out is probably not realistic but...

If Arkansas is 21-9, the national seed question will not be a question.  I would bet that Arkansas can be worse than 21-9 and still be a national seed (though it would depend on other things).

Arkansas has only beaten one team a weekend with an RPI better than the worst RPI Arkansas still has on its schedule.  Tenner is the lowest ranked team at 48.  Arkansas has only played two weekend series against teams with that high of an RPI - MSU and LSU. 

If Arkansas is ranked this high, with that relatively weak of a schedule and the tougher schedule ahead... no way Arkansas continues to win and isn't vaulted to secure national seed territory.

[Kevin]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-april-19/#VALkWWfLxt81qVIr.97

Arkansas
Oklahoma
Washington
Oral Roberts

[jbell96]

D1 Baseball posted their projected field

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/postseason-field-64-april-19/

Arkansas
Oklahoma
South Florida
Wright State

Wright State has an RPI of 52, and a series win over Clemson, so they are easily the best projected 4 seed in the tournament.

Paired with TCU's regional and has TCU as the #8 national seed.

[BroyledNutts]

If I had to only choose between D1 and BaseballAmerica I'll take D1 ...

Baseball America continues to devalue the Hogs performance, having them as the #15 overall seed paired with #2 North Carolina (oh look, another hogs/tar heels affair) while continuing to forecast LSU as a national seed. I guess they're anticipating LSU to win the west.

D1 seems to have things a bit more balanced with us paired at #8 TCU, but still having Florida as a national seed is just homerism on someone's part.

Just keep winning baby.

[SPAL]

The idea that Arkansas will win every series from here on out is probably not realistic but...

If Arkansas is 21-9, the national seed question will not be a question.  I would bet that Arkansas can be worse than 21-9 and still be a national seed (though it would depend on other things).

Arkansas has only beaten one team a weekend with an RPI better than the worst RPI Arkansas still has on its schedule.  Tenner is the lowest ranked team at 48.  Arkansas has only played two weekend series against teams with that high of an RPI - MSU and LSU. 

If Arkansas is ranked this high, with that relatively weak of a schedule and the tougher schedule ahead... no way Arkansas continues to win and isn't vaulted to secure national seed territory.

Why is it not realistic? It may not happen that way, but it's certainly realistic.

[SPAL]

Missouri State jumped 26 to 19 after beating Mizzou.

Missouri dropped from 51-56 by losing.

[razCzar]

Missouri State jumped 26 to 19 after beating Mizzou.

Missouri dropped from 51-56 by losing.

Good stuff.

And Hogs stay at 13.

[YtownHog]

Any thoughts on projected rpi if we get 2 of 3 at Auburn? Do we get inside top 10?

[CJ HOG]

La Tech, R.I., and Miami OH  all won tonight, should help keep an upward momentum on our rpi.

Too bad UGA couldn't pull off the upset against Clemson, lost 9-7.

[Hogs49ers]

How the hell is TCU ahead of us in RPI??

[razCzar]

Any thoughts on projected rpi if we get 2 of 3 at Auburn? Do we get inside top 10?

Doubt it.

By taking the Auburn series, clearly our upward range depends on what this group ahead of us does:

#12 Wake has a tough task @Clemson
#11 Virginia hosts ND
#10 TCU takes on #16 Baylor in a seemingly close matchup
#9 Florida hosts #28 SC where anything goes
#8 WV is at Hogs' next midweek opponent, Kansas State / nice preview
#9 Kentucky hosts a formidable LSU / big series like ours

I could see Wake and Florida losing their series, in which case Hogs could gain a couple spots to #11.

We obviously are pulling against these guys.

[WBOBO]

I'm like Kevin.  Just keep winning.

[Kevin]

I am trying to be like the coaches.  Just focus on the next game.
Win that one

[CJ HOG]

Hogs up to 11th immediately following the road win at Auburn. Needed Fla. to lose to make the top 10 probably. However, with a home loss by TCU(trailing 9-0 atm) the frogs may fall a couple spots. We'll see hopefully.

Obviously doesn't matter at this point, so as Kevin says "Just Keep Winning Baby".

[TebowHater]

Hogs up to 11th immediately following the road win at Auburn. Needed Fla. to lose to make the top 10 probably. However, with a home loss by TCU(trailing 9-0 atm) the frogs may fall a couple spots. We'll see hopefully.

Obviously doesn't matter at this point, so as Kevin says "Just Keep Winning Baby".

Yep. A win tomorrow and we are solidly in the top 10.

[jry04]

Yep. A win tomorrow and we are solidly in the top 10.

Possibly, but it isn't that simple. The higher you get, the harder it is to move up. We jumped 2 spots after this win. Depending on other results we may not jump as much.

Also, the day is still early, so a lot of other results will be coming in altering the RPI. We could be 8th or 9th entering our game tomorrow with the results going final if they go our way. However, if some of our former opponents lose we could drop back down to 12 or 13, meaning a win tomorrow may not move us much past 10th. Regardless, hovering around the top 20 keeps you in the hosting discussion, so sitting at 11 is great.

[Kevin]

Win tomorrow. That is the focus

[jry04]

And just like that, we are down to #12. A few more results yet to go final that will impact our RPI tonight. Could get back to 11 or 10 entering tomorrow, or could end up being back at 13.

[CJ HOG]

Wake Forest may jump us when their Clemson W gets computed. So probably back to 13....Just have to win again tomorrow and see what happens then.

[Kevin]

12 going into today's game

[jry04]

12 going into today's game

13 as of right now.


EDIT: And now back to 12.

[Kevin]

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology