SEC Football Coaches Hot Seat 2024

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: It's only December, but the SEC has 4 obvious hot-seat candidates entering 2024

I argued last year that there wasn't any SEC head coach who was on the hot seat, and then what happened? Mississippi State and Texas A&M fired their head coach, one of whom got 10 games, and the other got $76 million to not work.

So what does that mean for 2024? Well, it means we have some situations that don't appear particularly promising:

Sam Pittman, Arkansas
For my money, there's not a more likable coach in America than Pittman. That could be why he got a Year 5 instead of getting the boot after a wildly disappointing Year 4. Pittman's main area of expertise, the offensive line, was a major liability and his offensive coordinator hire, Dan Enos, was a total flop. Arkansas played 4 home games against Power 5 competition and got outscored 141-58. Mind you, that was against the likes of BYU, Mississippi State, Auburn and Mizzou. Not exactly murderer's row.

Hunter Yurachek made the somewhat surprising move of giving his hire another year. The buyout could vary depending on what kind of year Pittman has. His performance-based buyout means that if his overall 2021-present record is .500 or above, he'll get 75% of his remaining contract. His 2021-present record is currently 20-18, which could put his buyout in the $12-13 million range. If Pittman's 2021-present record is below .500, he'd only get somewhere between $8-9 million of that remaining deal.

The good news for Pittman? The true road games on that schedule aren't nearly as bad as they could be (at Oklahoma State, at Auburn, at Mississippi State, at Mizzou). The bad news for Pittman?

The most interesting news for Pittman? He got Bobby Petrino to come back to Fayetteville to run the Arkansas offense, a decade after Petrino was part of one of the wilder exits in the history of the sport. Petrino might be tasked to work wonders if the Hogs struggle to reel in some big fish from the portal.

Billy Napier, Florida
Man. Where do we begin?

Half of Billy Napier's first signing class with the #Gators is in the transfer portal

That's a bad look for anyone, much less for a coach who is coming off a 5-7 Year 2 with what's being called the most difficult schedule in America on deck. You can get away with that stuff at a place like Kansas or Vanderbilt. You can't get away with that at Florida. That we know based on the fact that no coach in the post-Urban Meyer era has lasted more than 4 seasons.

Napier's $31 million buyout probably saved him, as did the fact that the athletic director who hired him (Scott Stricklin) is still the one pulling the strings on that decision. But in Year 3, it's fair to wonder what the path to Year 4 looks like. We know that the 2024 class is loaded, despite some November de-commitments. We also know that if you're relying on a freshman class to save your job, you probably won't have a job to save.

Oh, and there's another elephant in the room. Napier still hasn't fired himself as Florida's offensive play-caller.

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
This is going to sound harsh, but I don't know that anybody has a path to success at Vandy in this era of the sport. I know, I know. The stadium renovation that's been 4 decades in the making is off and running, and Lea is a Vandy guy who understands that program. That's important.

You know what else is important? Acquiring and keeping talent.

Lea got a vote of confidence from AD Candice Storey Lee, who said that he's the coach "until I say otherwise."

That's never good.

Shane Beamer, South Carolina
This one is tricky because while Beamer has certainly checked a lot of the "right man for the job" boxes, there's still concern that South Carolina was that thin in Year 3. How much of that is NIL budget vs. developmental issues? That depends. It could be both.

Going 5-7 is one thing. But going 5-7 when Spencer Rattler was the best version of himself

South Carolina didn't have an SEC offensive line or backfield. It lacked the cover guys that it needed in the secondary, too. Things got worse when preseason All-SEC selection Juice Wells entered the portal, as did featured back Mario Anderson. All of those things come back to the head coach.

Beamer's future could come down to deciding to go all in with LaNorris Sellers at quarterback. If he had been 7-5 in Year 3, that's probably an easier decision. Instead, the Gamecocks missed a bowl game and now have questions galore. Then again, Beamer's QB situation was one of the best in the SEC and it still ended up being a disappointing season.

If he doesn't get some major hits in the portal, AD Ray Tanner could decide that a potential $13-14 million buyout is worth forking over to start fresh. Beamer is usually at his best when his back is against the wall —

[jbcarol]

The upcoming Early Signing period and Transfer Portal activity should help project who stays and gets relief on the hot seat.

[jbcarol]

First and 10: Crushing the transfer portal is Billy Napier's only chance to survive at Florida
Matt Hayes |


The program will survive. Napier will not.

What happened over the past few weeks with a high school recruiting class isn't going to determine the fate of embattled Florida coach Billy Napier.

The next 4 or so months will.

"Look, it's for some, it's not for some," Napier said of his rebuild at Florida, which last week included the addition of a 3rd high school recruiting class — one that had numerous late flips to other schools, and one that has an unsettled fan base looking for answers.

But this isn't about a class that 3 weeks ago was No. 3 in our nation and currently sits at No. 16. It's not about a class that at one point had 7 players in the top 100 and finished with 3 (2 in the top 6).

It's not about what could be with high school recruits. It's about what will be with proven, experienced players.

Florida will win and lose games in 2024, for the most part, with players Napier adds from the transfer portal over the next 4 months. And frankly, that's not looking too good, either.

It's certainly not what Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is doing (more on that later).

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: Just-in-time SEC questions for 2024

8. How many SEC head coaches are fired in 2024?

As mentioned with Napier, he's 1 of 4 SEC coaches who figure to show up on hot-seat lists. That includes Sam Pittman, Clark Lea and even Shane Beamer, who had a disappointing 3-win regression in Year 3. That's 25% of the conference that could need to show significant improvement to return in 2025.

Napier and Pittman will be the most obvious "hot-seat" coaches after missing out on the postseason in brutal fashion. It might not be as simple as "postseason or bust" for those 2. Getting to an 8-4 regular season might be the only thing that can guarantee return.

[jbcarol]

Whoever replaces Saban

[jbcarol]

Ryan Clark believes Alabama's next coach 'ain't gonna be the right coach'

by:
Andrew Graham
•

It is worth noting that ESPN football analyst and commentator Ryan Clark is an LSU alum.

ESPN's "First Take" on Friday morning.

"I don't even care what the topic is. I want to talk to all you Louisiana folks who was driving around Louisiana, all in Baton Rouge, with your Roll Tide license plates, with your little funky Alabama flags on your windows, walking around with some little elephant ears and trunk and all that. Go ahead and put it all up because ain't none of y'all finna be happy with these eight- and nine-win seasons with whoever takes over the job. I do not care who's the next coach because he ain't gonna be the right coach because he ain't gonna be Nick Saban. And that's why nobody wants the job," Clark said.

He harkened back to his SEC playing days to further drive home the point. During Clark's five years at LSU from 1997-2001, the Crimson Tide went 31-28.

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: Scott Stricklin insists that Billy Napier isn't on the hot seat

Is he the person to ask  

I spent 2023 battling anyone who claimed that Billy Napier's job was in jeopardy.

Paying $31 million to fire a coach at the end of Year 2 wasn't going to be the move for Scott Stricklin, AKA the guy who committed nearly $60 million to Dan Mullen's successor (that's including the assistants and the well-documented support staff) after that flamed out by the end of Year 4. Mullen was Stricklin's first football coach hire after he was gifted an opportunity to fire Jim McElwain with cause amid a disastrous Year 3 because he made up death threats.

See where I'm going with this yet? No? That's OK, we've got time.

What Napier doesn't have is just that — time.

In this world of college football, you only get so many opportunities to default to time, as if that's the missing piece from your equation for success. So far, Napier's equation for success spit out an 11-14 record with a revolving door at the coordinator spots. He still believes in himself enough as the primary offensive play-caller and he has yet to officially hire someone to exclusively handle special teams, which was a disastrous unit in Year 2 and would ideally improve in Year 3 against what some are dubbing as the toughest schedule in college football...

Stricklin, in his unbiased opinion, doesn't think that Napier is on the "hot seat" entering Year 3. That's what he told The Orlando Sentinel in a recent interview.

"I don't care. It doesn't matter. It's a made-up term," he told The Orlando Sentinel. "People can put them on whatever list they want. It has nothing to do with reality."

Reality is that Stricklin's future is tied to Napier's. Outside of his wife and kids, there shouldn't be a bigger Napier supporter/apologist than Stricklin. In the SEC, athletic directors don't get to fire 3 coaches. They get fired before that happens.

Stricklin needs Napier to succeed like I need a post-holiday diet.

I know, I know. Now is the part where you remind me that Florida is an "everything school," and that I need to acknowledge that success in track and field, softball and baseball are also tied to an athletic director's job security.

[jbcarol]

Goodman: Will Alabama ever be special again?

Losing Nick Saban continues to shake Alabama football to its core.

On Friday, another big-time player decided maybe it was time to leave. This time it's Julian Sayin, the quarterback who enrolled early to play for Alabama's legendary coach. Sayin is rated as the No.1 overall quarterback prospect of the 2024 class. According to a report by ESPN, Sayin will enter the transfer portal on Friday.

It's been a tough week for Alabama football and its fans. Receiver Isaiah Bond shocked the world when he left for Texas last Sunday. Since then, a constant stream of talent has made its way into the portal. On Wednesday, safety Caleb Downs, the national freshman of the year, decided it might be time for him to go.

Readers have expressed their concerns with me throughout the week. Emails have been pouring in. Some fans are in disbelief, some are angry, and some have questions. I can't soothe the pain, but when it comes to questions, I can offer some answers.

WILL ALABAMA EVER BE SPECIAL AGAIN?

Yes, Alabama will continue to be special because it has some of the best fans in college football. I know that's probably not the answer you want to hear, but fans are what separates college football in Alabama from everywhere else. The same goes with Auburn.

I don't know about Saban's choice for a replacement, but Texas coach Steve Sarkisian was at the top of my board for Alabama's next coach. There are some things to consider, though. Why would Sark leave Texas after building the Longhorns into a national-title contender that already went on the road and beat Alabama? Texas' NIL collective has deeper pockets than Alabama's. Receiver Isaiah Bond's first order of business after arriving in Austin was to visit the local Lamborghini dealership. I don't know of any Lambo dealerships in Alabama, and Saban, after all, is a Ferrari guy.

New Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is a good coach, but he's going to do things his own way. Frankly, that's the only way it's going to work. All the talk about Saban having 100 percent access to the program was just a way to hopefully keep as many of Saban's players around as possible. That's just my read of the situation. I was impressed with DeBoer's ability to hire two head coaches to join his defensive staff. That's says a lot about DeBoer's ability as a leader. Kane Wommack of South Alabama and Maurice Linguist of Buffalo are two of the best young coaches in the country. Give Alabama time.

Something tells me that DeBoer is going to win a lot of football games at Alabama.

WORST WEEK OF MY FOOTBALL LIFE

Like you, I was disappointed in Bond transferring to Texas...but a Lamborghini

Thought he might be an Aston Martin guy.

[jbcarol]

https://www.nwahomepage.com/sports/pig-trail-nation/espn-lists-two-sec-head-football-coaches-on-hot-seat

[jbcarol]

Where do teams with coaches on the hot seat entering 2024 stand in ESPN's returning production rankings?
by:
Jesse Simonton
•

2023-24 coaching cycle isn't even complete, but it's not too early to take a peek at a six-pack of power conference coaches facing various degrees of heat entering next season.

Sift through any number of Way-Too-Early-Hot-Seat lists and you'll see names like Florida's Billy Napier, Baylor's Dave Aranda and Arkansas' Sam Pittman frequently mentioned.

UCLA's Chip Kelly, who is already looking for an exit ramp out of Westwood, Vandy's Clark Lea and Pitt's Pat Narduzzi are oftentimes listed, too.

Who might be set for a rebound season that not only saves the coach's job but changes the narrative around their program (see: Neal Brown and Drink just last season)?

Billy Napier, Florida – 32nd (68% returning production: 70% OFF, 66% DEF)

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt – 76th (60% returning production: 54% OFF, 65% DEF)

Sam Pittman, Arkansas — 109th (46% returning production: 50% OFF, 41% DEF)

Napier is seen as a dead man walking, especially with Florida's grueling 2024 schedule, but the Gators do return the bulk a of young squad that got a wealth of experience last season —

While Florida did lose its top receiver (Ricky Pearsall) and second-leading rusher (Trevor Etienne), the rest of the offense is mostly back. Napier has also added nearly a dozen transfers already, particularly looking to upgrade Florida's defensive personnel with the additions of guys like Washington safety Asa Turner, Oregon safety Trikweze Bridges and Grayson.

Vandy did nab New Mexico quarterback Diego Pavia.

Finally, poor Sam Pittman. One of the most well-liked coaches in the country survived a 4-8 season in 2023, but unless the Razorbacks make major hey in the second transfer portal window, he'll have one of the least experienced teams in the SEC in 2024.

Arkansas lost 25 players to the portal already, and the Hogs rank ahead of only Alabama and Mississippi State in returning production for 2024. Former Boise State quarterback Taylen Green will replace KJ Jefferson, and Arkansas is hoping all three OL transfers hit.

[jbcarol]

First and 10: If the Head Ball Coach is concerned about Billy Napier, you probably should be, too
Matt Hayes | 21 minutes ago

This is the single most impactful Florida Gator in the history of the football program. The Heisman Trophy winner and national championship coach, and one to never, ever, speak without intent.

That's what makes Spurrier's comments to the Florida Times-Union on Friday so alarming.

When asked about the state of the program under coach Billy Napier, Spurrier said, "There's a feeling around the Gators of, 'What the heck are we doing?' There's a lot of questions that I don't have answers to about organization."

Full stop.

[jbcarol]

Pittman addresses how he's handled pressure to win at Arkansas, outside negativity

by:
Griffin McVeigh
•

"It's never been about me," Pittman said. "It's been about the kids in the locker room, the state of Arkansas, and the University. So, the pressure of the job comes from we want to make the state, the University, and the kids proud of the football team. We want them to embrace the Hog, we want them to embrace who we are.

"It's never been about me, even with all the things swirling around last year. 'Can he do this, can he do that?' It doesn't affect me because the pressure comes from winning for the state. So, all the decisions I'm making are trying to get the right people both on the field and off the field in the right places so we can have success."

[jbcarol]

First and 10: Why Brady Cook, Mizzou could be the SEC's biggest Playoff surprise
Matt Hayes |

Ask and ye shall receive
Matt: Let's say Billy Napier doesn't make it at Florida. Who should the Gators hire to replace him?

I'm not completely sold on Napier's demise. In fact, I could see everything from SEC coach of the year, to being fired in the first month of the season. The talent is better on both sides of the ball, the team is older and more experienced, and the offense should be more consistent and have the ability to make accurate 2nd- and 3rd-level throws.

But let's not sugarcoat it: A loss to Miami in the opener can derail everything. If it goes south, and if Florida has its 4th straight losing season since the 1930s, the program will be looking for its 5th coach in 15 years.

Now more than ever, Florida needs a coach who knows the SEC, is an elite recruiter (both high school and transfer portal) and an unwavering game day tactician. It needs a dynamic, charismatic coach that can trade blows with Mike Norvell of FSU and Mario Cristobal of Miami — and everyone else in the SEC —

Translation: Lane Kiffin.

[runninhog]

Napier probably won't last the season. He practically has more support staff than players. That's what Spurrier was referring to. It's a joke.

[jbcarol]

With latest assistant hire, Billy Napier sticks to his process despite shaky start to Florida tenure
Andrew Olson |

Napier's Florida tenure has not gone as expected in two seasons, but the head coach is sticking to his plan. Napier had a chance to shake things up on his staff this offseason, but entering Year 3, the head coach is staying the course with his Day 1 strategy.

It's typical for an on-field college football staff to have one quarterback coach, one offensive line coach, one running backs coach, one tight ends coach and one wide receivers coach on offense. It's not always the case, but it is the expected arrangement these days, depending on whether a coordinator or the head coach will also work with a position group. Occasionally, tight ends get lumped in with the receivers or with linemen.

Napier turned some heads when he named two offensive line coaches to his inaugural Florida staff. He does not have an on-field quarterbacks coach, with analyst Ryan O'Hara serving in the traditional QB coach role.

Rob Sale, who worked with Napier at Alabama, Arizona State and Louisiana, returned to the college ranks as Florida's offensive coordinator and offensive line coach ahead of the 2022 season. While Sale holds the title of offensive coordinator and a 7-figure salary, Napier has been UF's offensive play-caller.

There was plenty of intrigue surrounding how Napier might use a post-National Signing Day staff opening to shake things up for Year 3. While fans may have hoped for an outside offensive mind or an on-field special teams coordinator, Napier instead stuck to his original plan. The Gators will again have two offensive line coaches.

[jbcarol]

Winning games is something Billy Napier can do 

Quiet critics

by: Dan Morrison
•

Napier is familiar with the critics. Through his first two seasons at Florida, he's had plenty of them. Now, going into year three in Gainesville, a way Napier can silence those critics is by winning games.

Andy Staples recently made an appearance on the Paul Finebaum Show. There, he shared some thoughts on those Gators and explained why winning games is going to be how to quiet critics of the job he's done.

"You got to win games, right? Six and six, and then 5-7," Andy Staples said. "You have to win games. There's absolutely no speech you can give, no question you can answer, nothing you can do that will change anybody's mind other than winning more games than everybody thinks you should. That is the only thing he can do. Everything else is just rearranging deck chairs."

In his first two seasons at Florida, Billy Napier has a record of 11-14. The 2023 season was particularly frustrating, with the Gators starting 5-2 before losing their final five games to miss a bowl.

The recruiting has been strong under Napier. That class included the highly-anticipated five-star quarterback DJ Lagway.

Still, winning on the field is what matters.

[jbcarol]

Andy Staples explains the optimism around Florida going into 2024 season

by: Andrew Graham
•

Things have not gone exactly according to script during Billy Napier's first two seasons as the head coach at Florida. But despite Napier assembling an 11-13 regular season record, Andy Staples explained on The Paul Finebaum Show why there's some good vibes.

Outside of a murderers row of a schedule (more on that in a minute), Staples noted there's a fair few plusses going Florida's way: A returning quarterback, some new talent, plus another year of continuity.

"I think the people at Florida legitimately feel like they've got a better team than they had last year," Staples said. "And there's a good chance they might. I think Graham Mertz was a very pleasant surprise coming in as a transfer quarterback. I think they have some pretty big expectations for him this year. Yes, everybody's excited about DJ Lagway, but I think everybody feels pretty comfortable with what Graham Mertz can do."

But there is a key problem that potential awaits the Gators come fall: The schedule is one of, if not the hardest 12-game slates of the 2024 season as of the end of spring practices. On top of non-conference games against Miami, UCF, and at Florida State, the Gators will host Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M while making trips to Tennessee and Texas. Plus, there's always the Georgia matchup in Jacksonville.

This leads to a daunting possibility, that Florida could be better and not have a record that reflects,

"And the thing is, if you wind up with the same record, if you're 5-7, in that case your regular seasons under Billy Napier will be 6-6, 5-7, 5-7 — you've kind of shown what you are at that point," Staples said. "You're a .500 coach. And that's the part that has to be sorted out. Everybody's wondering, 'OK, do you give this guy more time if they appear to be getting better?' Or, do you say, 'No, the standard is higher than just make a bowl game, at Florida.' And I think you can't really make that determination right now. You have to watch this team play. You have to watch them against the Georgia's of the world, against the Texas's of the world, the Ole Miss's — how do they play? How do they stack up?"

For Staples, the Gators don't necessarily need to win all those high-profile games.

But a lack of competitive play against the top teams in the SEC could be the beginning of the end for Napier and Co.