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Thoughts and Predictions for Upcoming Season

Started by -Blu, June 29, 2015, 09:17:36 pm

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-Blu

Now that it looks like our roster is set, thought it would be a good time to get some thoughts and predictions going for this upcoming season.

First thing, I'm really looking forward to Jimmy Whitt.  I've never seen the staff talk about a recruit as much as they do Whitt.  CMA has been saying in almost all his interviews he thinks Whitt will be an elite guard in this league.  And in the SEC teleconference today, He said that he expects Whitt to not only be playing, but playing quite a bit.  I never heard CMA essentially guaranteeing a freshman would be playing a lot, even with Bobby Portis he kinda tempered expectations, and was really modest about him.  I look for Whitt to have a "Riley LaChance" type of year for us.  For those that don't know LaChance was the freshman guard for Vanderbilt that had a really good freshman season, was second in scoring on the team.

As far as the rest of the roster, Instead of a big 2 this year, I expect our team to be a lot more balanced, but I still think we'll have some guys that set themselves apart.  Those guys IMO will be Beard, Whitt, and Kingsley.  Beard was really starting to take off last season, and was really a consistent player for us before he had those nagging injuries that kinda hampered him.  I look for him to be one of our top scorers, and also one of the leaders of the team.  Kingsley, we look at his production per minute last year, and we can see that he's ready to have a big year, with more consistent minutes.  I also look for Williams and Bell to have solid senior campaigns.  I think both will start and increase their production from a year ago.  On another board a guy that has been watching some pick-up games said Williams and Whitt were the 2 best players out there.  Watkins is also another guy that I look forward to.  I don't think his scoring numbers are ever going to catch our eyes, but he'll be one of the leaders alongside Beard, and do what he does best which is bring energy and intensity off of the bench.  Hannahs shooting ability should also be a big plus as well, I expect him to have a major role. 

The player I think a lot of people are excited for is Ted Kapita.  I'm excited about his future as well, but as of right now, I think it will be a big adjustment for him and asking a lot for him to be a major contributor his first year. He essentially missed his entire senior season, and when we did see him at the end of the year in the Dick's Sporting Good Tournament he didn't move well, and didn't look 100%.  I think the staff will be very cautious with him and play him limited minutes his freshman year.  I think he'll play anywhere from 5-10 MPG and probably split minutes with Miles behind Williams.

Here's how I think our scoring will look next year.

Whitt - 12.1 PPG
Beard - 11.8 PPG
Bell - 9.6 PPG
Kingsley - 8.9 PPG
Williams - 7.8 PPG
Hannahs - 7.2 PPG
Watkins - 5.2 PPG
Durham - 4.9 PPG
Kouassi - 4.3 PPG
Thompson - 4.1 PPG
Kapita - 2.1 PPG
Miles - 1.9 PPG

Total = 79.9 PPG

Rotation

Beard / Durham
Bell / Hannahs
Whitt / Watkins
Williams / Miles / Kapita
Kingsley / Kouassi / Thompson


PonderinHog

Helluva post, -Blu.  I can't wait!   :razorback:

 

TomBigBeeHog

I spent most of my life drankin', gamblin', and chasing women, the rest I just wasted.

revolution

My guess is that the Hogs will average 65-68 points next season. 

jry04

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 08:58:26 am
My guess is that the Hogs will average 65-68 points next season. 
If that is the case, we will win maybe 10 games next season.

Don't see there being any way we average less than 70 ppg with our style, and the rules changes.

nwahogfan1

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 08:58:26 am
My guess is that the Hogs will average 65-68 points next season. 
I am more inclined to us scoring somewhere around 65 ppg also.  No way all of those players in Blu's article above get enough playing time to average the points he is quoting. No way.

Also, we are all hoping for Whitt to be a super scorer but what basis do we have?  Sounds great but no way. But even if Whitt does score anywhere close to 12PPG then he going to be taking minutes away from others who will not be scoring. 

I just don't see us being a good scoring team especially in SEC play.  Our Conference is getting much better with the addition of schools putting money into hiring seasoned veteran basketball coaches.   


-Blu

Quote from: jry04 on June 30, 2015, 09:37:12 am
If that is the case, we will win maybe 10 games next season.

Don't see there being any way we average less than 70 ppg with our style, and the rules changes.

Yea no way we average less than 70 PPG.  Even in Mike's first year with a shorthanded team they averaged 72 PPG.  I personally think we'll average in the high 70s.

A lot of people are going to sleep on this team just because we lost Qualls and Portis.  They did the same thing after we lost Young and Powell as well, they forget other people are capable of progressing and stepping up.  And I'm not saying we are going to be better than we were this year, I think that may be a stretch, but we do still have some solid players on the roster and they are more than capable of handling the load and keeping the program going in the right direction.

jry04

June 30, 2015, 09:54:37 am #7 Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 10:35:12 am by jry04
Quote from: nwahogfan1 on June 30, 2015, 09:46:28 am
I am more inclined to us scoring somewhere around 65 ppg also.  No way all of those players in Blu's article above get enough playing time to average the points he is quoting. No way.

Also, we are all hoping for Whitt to be a super scorer but what basis do we have?  Sounds great but no way. But even if Whitt does score anywhere close to 12PPG then he going to be taking minutes away from others who will not be scoring. 

I just don't see us being a good scoring team especially in SEC play.  Our Conference is getting much better with the addition of schools putting money into hiring seasoned veteran basketball coaches.   


The fact is Anderson has yet to have a team average less than 72 ppg in his coaching career. Even when Marshawn went down, we averaged 72 ppg, which is the lowest total of any team he has coached, even while at UAB.  The shot clock being shorter will create a few more possessions each game, which will increase scoring some. I don't think we average 79 ppg, but I will bet everything I have that we average more than 70 since Anderson coached teams always do.

We are losing Harris, Portis, Qualls, and Madden. That is a lot of minutes to be added to other players.

As far as Whitt being a scorer, we have a thing called AAU as our basis. He put up big numbers against top competition. It will be a huge disappointment if he doesn't average 10ppg as a freshman.

Again, if you think we are only going to score 65ppg, then you think we will only win about 10 games next season.

-Blu

Quote from: nwahogfan1 on June 30, 2015, 09:46:28 am
I am more inclined to us scoring somewhere around 65 ppg also.  No way all of those players in Blu's article above get enough playing time to average the points he is quoting. No way.

Also, we are all hoping for Whitt to be a super scorer but what basis do we have?  Sounds great but no way. But even if Whitt does score anywhere close to 12PPG then he going to be taking minutes away from others who will not be scoring. 

Can you link the year a Mike Anderson team has averaged under 70 PPG?  Because the lowest I've ever seen his team average was 72 PPG, when the best player got hurt after a few games.  It would have to be an absolute disaster for a CMA team to only score 65 PPG, it's never happened in his 13 years of coaching.

And as far as Whitt, like I said, I've never seen CMA so high on a recruit, also scouts are really high on him as well and think he's an instant impact player.  It's not out of the norm for a freshman to score a lot.  In my original post, I gave an example of Riley Lachance at Vandy, he wasn't rated nearly as high as Whitt and averaged 12 PPG on a very solid Vandy team, that fell just short of the NCAA tournament, if you don't think Whitt is capable of that then I would recommend watching some videos, and reading some scouting reports on him.

hawginbigd1

I think Blu is a little high on his numbers, I think the average will be 70 to 73 PPG, but that is including around 6 games that they will score 90+. My prediction would be that Bell is the leading scorer at around 14 PPG followed closely by Whitt and Kingsley in the end. 17 wins is the basement, with 21 being the ceiling.

Hawg Red

Hogs averaged 78 PPG last year with Portis, Qualls, and Madden.

jry04

Quote from: hawginbigd1 on June 30, 2015, 10:17:19 am
I think Blu is a little high on his numbers, I think the average will be 70 to 73 PPG, but that is including around 6 games that they will score 90+. My prediction would be that Bell is the leading scorer at around 14 PPG followed closely by Whitt and Kingsley in the end. 17 wins is the basement, with 21 being the ceiling.
I won't disagree with that. Seems pretty reasonable.


Quote from: Hawg Red on June 30, 2015, 10:18:06 am
Hogs averaged 78 PPG last year with Portis, Qualls, and Madden.

Yeah, I don't see us beating that, but I do think we are around 73-75.

Big Nasty 34

Like someone said, the shorter shot clock should increase scoring for everyone. This is my highly optimistic thoughts of scoring distribution:

Beard 9 Durham 6     
Bell 11 Hannahs 9     
Watkins 5 Whitt 8       
Williams 8 Miles 5 Thompson 4 
Kingsley 7 Koussai 5 Kapita 2

I think that's a semi reasonable 79 PPG

 

-Blu

The prediction of 79 was based on the the new shot clock/timeout rule.  I think that rule change alone is worth an extra 3-5 PPG.  We're talking about a potential to have up to 10 extra possessions per game, a lot of people are not factoring that in.  Without that change I would say mid 70s as well, which is the norm for a CMA team.

Hawg Red

Quote from: jry04 on June 30, 2015, 10:32:17 am
Yeah, I don't see us beating that, but I do think we are around 73-75.

I think we'll be north of 70, just not sure how far north. I think Whitt will average 15-16 PPG and Beard, Hannahs, and Bell will come in around double figures. X-factors, scoring-wise, are Williams, Kingsley, and Watkins. I'm not expecting much of anything offensively from Miles or Thompson (because I don't think he's ready to be much of a factor). I'm not expecting anything from Kapita because I'm completely in the dark on all things Kapita right now. Kid scares me. Will he make it to campus at all? If he does, will be healthy enough to even play? I just don't know. So I'm not factoring him in right now.

bigdaddyhawg

I think this team has one chance to be pretty good, and that will only happen if it makes its' living based on its' defense.

I don't know if Blu's predictions are true or not, but I just don't think it matters all that much.  I think this team will be somewhat limited offensively, and that if it doesn't make up for those deficiencies on the defensive end, they are going to have trouble finding a way to win consistently.

So here's hoping the '15-'16 Hogs can learn how to play great defense.
Let us then turn this government back into the channel in which the framers of the Constitution originally placed it.  Abraham Lincoln, 1858

HF#1

Fully expect this team to be better than what most think.  With that said, I do think this is a transition year.  We lost 2 big contributors I do not think Mike expected to lose.  All roads point to the 2016 class. It really always has been about that.  There are players in that class that can take us to the promise land.

I expect a 20 win season.  I do not necessarily expect post-season play.  If we make the tournament, then kudo's to Mike for a hell of a coaching job.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

-Blu

Quote from: nwahogfan1 on June 30, 2015, 09:46:28 am
No way all of those players in Blu's article above get enough playing time to average the points he is quoting. No way.

Here's a minutes prediction, on how those scoring numbers can happen.

1 - Beard (26), Durham (10), Whitt (4)
2 - Bell (22), Hannahs (18)
3 - Whitt (21), Watkins (16), Williams (3)
4 - Williams (21), Miles (7), Kapita (7), Thompson (5)
5 - Kingsley (24), Kouassi (12), Thompson (4)

Beard - 26 MPG
Whitt - 25 MPG
Kingsley - 24 MPG
Williams - 24 MPG
Bell - 22 MPG
Hannahs - 18 MPG
Watkins - 16 MPG
Kouassi - 12 MPG
Durham - 10 MPG
Thompson - 9 MPG
Miles - 7 MPG
Kapita - 7 MPG

And if your thinking, there's no way the minutes can look like that.  Take a look at the 2013-2014 team after we lost Powell and Young.  We had 10 guys average double figure in minutes, Portis lead the way playing 27 MPG.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/8/year/2014/arkansas-razorbacks


Biggus Piggus

Trivia fact: Arkansas 2014-15 was the slowest-tempo team that Mike Anderson has ever coached. One of two that averaged less than 70 possessions per game.

Also had the lowest forced-turnover % of any MA-coached team. This doesn't go well with the defensive rebounding, which was near the bottom of MA's historical range; and 35% 3-pt defense, which was one of the team's primary weaknesses.

Arkansas did have the highest offensive rebounding % of any MA-coached team.

MA's most efficient teams on offense had records of 31-7, 27-9 (this season), 16-16, and 23-11.

His most efficient teams on defense had records of 23-11, 31-7, 22-10 and 20-13.

His worst scoring teams had records of 19-13, 20-13, 18-14, and 22-10.

His worst defensive teams went 18-14, 16-16, 18-12, and 22-12.

MA is no one-trick pony, regardless of what some posters parrot without taking a breath.

If he can get his team to be very good on one end of the court, the team's going to win a lot of games. That is the real question for next season. Can Arkansas be outstanding in any aspect of the game?

[CENSORED]!

claycohog

Defense, defense, defense.  It will be interesting to see which style we will play defensively.  Running, trapping, and pressing or a suffocating half court defense.

Also, I'm not too worried about scoring points.  It usually works itself out.

Biggus Piggus

What does Willy Kouassi add? Kennesaw State listed him as 6-10, 230. Kouassi put up very good stats for defensive rebounding and shotblocking. His offensive skills need polish. Kouassi's career stats (Kennesaw and Auburn) were consistently poor in turnovers and free throw shooting. He shot 54% from the floor as a sophomore, 45% last season. The free throw situation looks bad -- 45% career.

Arkansas players' 2-pt shooting % last season:

62% Watkins
49% Kingsley
45% Kouassi
42% Bell, Beard
41% Williams
39% Hannahs (his last season at Texas Tech)
38% Miles
21% Durham
20% Thompson

Y I K E S.

Arkansas cannot afford to play Ted Kapita 7 minutes per game. If that happens, the Hogs might lose 20 games. The Hogs need somebody who can finish inside. Jimmy Whitt will have to score, and Kapita will too.

Thompson did not get much of a chance last season. We're told he is a significant piece of the puzzle. Well, not really sure where he fits into the defensive equation. Arkansas might slap something together and have a halfway usable halfcourt offense, but with Kingsley, Kouassi, Kapita and some quick guards the Hogs could be good on defense (not all on court together, just in rotation).

Players who shoot significantly below 50% from 2-point range don't always improve. It sometimes reveals some sort of physical limitation. Thompson doesn't count here, as he only got five field goal attempts in 14 games. Almost all of the others have problems. The Hogs really need Kingsley and Thompson to develop into dependable inside scorers, and they also need Whitt and Kapita to play meaningful roles right away. Beard ought to improve after an injury-plagued freshman season, but shorter guards have problems scoring inside in the SEC.

Just for comparison: Here's the 2-pt shooting % of all the key players on MA's last Missouri team. This wasn't a great team, not a tough comparison at all.

68% F Moore
59% F Ratliffe
54% G Denmon
54% F Bowers
50% F Kreklow
47% G M.Pressey
44% F Safford
41% G Dixon
41% G P.Pressey
37% F English

That Mizzou team lost some games because guards like Phil Pressey and Michael Dixon couldn't finish. Guys like Dixon and English got much better at 2-pt shooting, later in their college careers.

Arkansas worked hard to get the best shots for Portis and Qualls. The offense is going to have to be a lot different now. At this point, nobody has any idea how the team is going to function in the halfcourt. It's crazy to even predict broad ranges, much less "12.1 PPG" or average minutes or anything with that kind of complete bull pretend precision. It makes a SWAG seem like an electron microscope.
[CENSORED]!

revolution

I don't think scoring 65-68 points per game necessarily equates into a 10-win season.  Dayton, Memphis, Syracuse and Texas A&M are some teams that scored at that pace last season and had some moderate success. 

I'm hopeful that the Hogs will be a strong defensive team next season, but I'm not optimistic that they'll ultimately be an NCAA-tournament team.  Nevertheless, I am looking forward to seeing how this team comes together!

-Blu

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on June 30, 2015, 01:02:09 pm
Arkansas cannot afford to play Ted Kapita 7 minutes per game. If that happens, the Hogs might lose 20 games. The Hogs need somebody who can finish inside. Jimmy Whitt will have to score, and Kapita will too.

While I agree Kapita being able to play could be an X-factor, I wouldn't go as far to say if he's not a major contributor this is a 20 loss team, that's a bit extreme.  I hope I'm wrong about my Kapita prediction, I think he has huge upside, he was a 5-star player before the injury.  He's suppose to be on campus for summer II session, there's a couple posters on another board that watches the pick-up games, once he gets on campus I'll see what they say on how he is looking, if we get a 100% Kapita that will be huge, but I'm just not getting my hopes up for it.

-Blu

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 01:14:40 pm
I don't think scoring 65-68 points per game necessarily equates into a 10-win season.  Dayton, Memphis, Syracuse and Texas A&M are some teams that scored at that pace last season and had some moderate success. 

Arkansas plays a completely different style than all those teams you mentioned.  Our entire goal is to play fast and push the tempo, hence the fastest 40 minutes of basketball motto.  If we are not controlling the pace of the game and we are playing a slower tempo, we are not going to have much success. 

65-68 PPG isn't realistic for a CMA coached team, in 13 years he's never had a team average below 72 PPG, and some of those teams had a much worse roster than what we are bringing in next year.  Also, with the shot clock change your talking about 10 more possessions per game, I don't know how all of the equates to us scoring in the 60s.

 

revolution

Quote from: -Blu on June 30, 2015, 01:26:00 pm
Arkansas plays a completely different style than all those teams you mentioned.  Our entire goal is to play fast and push the tempo, hence the fastest 40 minutes of basketball motto.  If we are not controlling the pace of the game and we are playing a slower tempo, we are not going to have much success. 

65-68 PPG isn't realistic for a CMA coached team, in 13 years he's never had a team average below 72 PPG, and some of those teams had a much worse roster than what we are bringing in next year.  Also, with the shot clock change your talking about 10 more possessions per game, I don't know how all of the equates to us scoring in the 60s.

Good points.  I did not take into account the shorter shot clock, but simply added up what I guessed each player on the roster would average per game. It will be interesting to see how the rules change affects scoring.

Obviously past results are fairly predictive of future outcomes, and so I am encouraged by the stats you bring to the discussion.  We will see.

-Blu

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 01:36:39 pm
Obviously past results are fairly predictive of future outcomes, and so I am encouraged by the stats you bring to the discussion.  We will see.

I admit there are a lot of unknowns, and it's really hard to tell how much each player will progress and who will take on the scoring load.  Like Biggus was saying about Kapita, he's a major factor.  If he's 100% healthy, I would throw my own predictions out the window, because he has the potential to be one of the top scorers on the team.  I'm actually looking forward to this year, it could end up being a very surprising year, we have the potential, we just have to see how CMA can put it together.

Hawg Red

Those non-con games against what we usually consider "cupcakes" are going to be pretty interesting......and ugly at times, I bet. I don't think we'll lose any of them, but they'll be closer than we'd all like as this team figures themselves out. It will be interesting to see them develop as the season goes along. It'll be an old "young" team with 4 freshmen/sophomores and 8 juniors/seniors.

LA Football fan

You also have to figure that our opponents scoring will go up due to the shot clock also.  If they have a better shooting team overall that doesn't bode well for us.  A team that shoots better than you taking more shots usually means a tougher job for you to overcome the disparity in shooting percentages.

This is where our defense has to make a difference.  We have to limit our opponents shot numbers through defense (turnovers), defensive rebounding, or pressure them enough that their shooting percentage goes down.  Will be interesting to see how next season plays out.  Just because we expect our average to go up doesn't really mean much if our opponents average goes up too.

Fully expect us to be competitive but I expect this team to struggle in close games until they can identify who their go to players are.  Portis and Qualls were called on numerous times last year in crunch time.  Who will it be this year??

choppedporkextrasauce

Quote from: -Blu on June 30, 2015, 10:44:51 am
The prediction of 79 was based on the the new shot clock/timeout rule.  I think that rule change alone is worth an extra 3-5 PPG.  We're talking about a potential to have up to 10 extra possessions per game, a lot of people are not factoring that in.  Without that change I would say mid 70s as well, which is the norm for a CMA team.

I like your thoughts and this team will create offense with defense. Whitt and Watkins will be a nice pair of ball hawks.

jry04

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 01:14:40 pm
I don't think scoring 65-68 points per game necessarily equates into a 10-win season.  Dayton, Memphis, Syracuse and Texas A&M are some teams that scored at that pace last season and had some moderate success. 

I'm hopeful that the Hogs will be a strong defensive team next season, but I'm not optimistic that they'll ultimately be an NCAA-tournament team.  Nevertheless, I am looking forward to seeing how this team comes together!
Look at their styles compared to ours. Anderson is not changing his style overnight. If we average 65-68ppg with this up-tempo style, then we are in a lot of trouble. 

nwahogfan1

Quote from: -Blu on June 30, 2015, 01:41:58 pm
I admit there are a lot of unknowns, and it's really hard to tell how much each player will progress and who will take on the scoring load.  Like Biggus was saying about Kapita, he's a major factor.  If he's 100% healthy, I would throw my own predictions out the window, because he has the potential to be one of the top scorers on the team.  I'm actually looking forward to this year, it could end up being a very surprising year, we have the potential, we just have to see how CMA can put it together.

I am hearing that Clearinghouse might have Kapita in deep trouble and he maybe have to go JUCO now. 

nwahogfan1

Quote from: claycohog on June 30, 2015, 12:40:43 pm
Defense, defense, defense.  It will be interesting to see which style we will play defensively.  Running, trapping, and pressing or a suffocating half court defense.

Also, I'm not too worried about scoring points.  It usually works itself out.
Pressure defense especially full court can work some against our lesser opponents but against the SEC and teams with good guards our pressing will not help us much.

hammer66

Quote from: nwahogfan1 on July 01, 2015, 04:19:38 pm
Pressure defense especially full court can work some against our lesser opponents but against the SEC and teams with good guards our pressing will not help us much.
The right players will definitely work against any teams in any conference.
Our 94 team would eat em all up!!

ErieHog

Beard is going to have to carry the team in crunch time;  his development, particularly in avoiding foul trouble, may be the difference in multiple games.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

jry04

Quote from: ErieHog on July 01, 2015, 10:32:49 pm
Beard is going to have to carry the team in crunch time;  his development, particularly in avoiding foul trouble, may be the difference in multiple games.
Agreed. I think him and Kingsley are the two we need to see make the biggest jump, but particularly Beard.

hammer66

Quote from: jry04 on July 02, 2015, 07:50:35 am
Agreed. I think him and Kingsley are the two we need to see make the biggest jump, but particularly Beard.

I also agree with this. My gut feeling is the biggest surprise will be manny Watkins. I think he is going to be a defensive specialist for us and I think he'll be a solid scorer as well.

Big Nasty 34

I'm anxious to see Manny. As hard as he works, it wouldn't surprise me a bit if he has been working hard all off season on his jump shot. If he adds that to his ability to drive, he could become an outstanding overall player!

nwahogfan1

Quote from: hammer66 on July 01, 2015, 10:30:59 pm
The right players will definitely work against any teams in any conference.
Our 94 team would eat em all up!!
Our 94 team was loaded.   I dont see that here.

hawgfan4life

Barring bad luck and injuries, having a program in place and the talent on hand, we will be very competitive and make the NCAA Tournament.  With some bad luck and injuries, we will be very competitive and be a lock for the NIT.  We will be much better than many fear.

secfan30

Quote from: revolution on June 30, 2015, 08:58:26 am
My guess is that the Hogs will average 65-68 points next season. 

You do realize there were rule changes that are in a fast paced teams favor? Does your agenda blind you, or are you that misinformed?