There are a ton of bigs entering the draft this year....

[-Blu]

It's two years guaranteed, with a two years of contract option. As long as the player is progressing, he'll get at least two years of development time. The greater risk is to have a minor injury that drops your draft stock to second round, or makes it so you have to play another year of college ball, which would set his earnings potential back two years instead of one.

You're taking low probability scenarios and talking like they are fact. If BP stays, most likely he increases his draft stock a 3-5 places, but it's a silly personal risk.

Most likely BP goes to the NBA, continues to build his skills, and has a good long run in the NBA. If he stays, he likely costs himself several million dollars by cutting a year off his NBA career earnings.

There aren't really very many 5-year NBA careers--there are players who go for 8-12 years and then there are players from the second-round and d-league who only make the roster for a few days, weeks, or months. Bobby Portis is the former, no matter whether he goes this year or next.

Heck, BP might stay because he genuinely loves Arkansas, or he has a girlfriend on campus, or he wants another shot at the NCAA tournament. Financially and from a development standpoint, BP gains little by staying--he's not playing NBA-style basketball here.

I'd love to see BP stay, but I also cringe at the thought of taking such a crazy risk.

I think both Hawg Red and Warpig88 already gave some really good points.  It's really up to Bobby, there is no better or worse decision here,  He's in a really good situation right now. I was just giving you guys that said there's no reason for him to return, the reasons he could return for.

And for those of you that keep on talking about leaving to avoid injury, you really haven't done your research at all.  First, it's 2015, there's all type of insurance policies out now to avoid worrying about a VERY RARE occasion that you get some type of career ending injury where you can never play in the NBA.  The school can pay for these policies for the players, so if that's Portis only concern, I'm sure the staff has told him about one of the policies, and if that rare situation happened he and his family would be taken care of.

Second, can you even name anyone that was a projected mid first round pick, came back to school, had an injury that was so bad, they were not able to make a living playing basketball again, or their stock dropped dramatically?  I can name 3 recent players in the last 2 drafts that were all bigs that had season ending injuries and still were drafted around their projected spot.  Joel Embid, Nerlens Noel, and Mitch McGary.  I don't know if you guys know this or not, but injuries are part of sports, EVERYBODY is going to have some type of injury at some point in their career, a GM isn't going to not draft a talented kid because he got injured once.  Only time injuries would be a big concern if it's a history of it.  Meaning a guy is constantly injured or is prone to injuries, even then if you have the right attributes GMs will still take a chance on you... See Greg Oden.

It's all about Bobby if he feels he's ready to go pro this year, then that's the best decision for him.  If he feels he needs to come back to Arkansas to increase his stock that's a good decision as well.  It's not going to be the end of NBA career like some of you are trying to make it out to be.  The most likely scenario if your a betting person is if he comes back he'll increase his draft stock by a couple of positions.

[Danny J]

Damian Jones returning to Vandy.

That is a big deal for Vandy....they will be very good next year. Definitely capable of finishing top 4.

[ErieHog]

If WCS really improved from 10-15 to 5-10, he made himself millions by staying. Not a million, but millions!!!!!!!!

At the 5, he will make 9 mil, whereas at the the 15 he would make 4 mil over the course of his first contract.

Since when is a chance at making an additional 4 mil a bad idea? It means that the team that drafts you has more invested and will be more likely to be more patient in hopes you develop further which puts you in better bargaining position come the second contract as well.

The notion of "you have to go now or miss a year of earnings" is misguided and costing a lot of guys multiple millions of dollars.

Seriously, WCS has probably DOUBLED his money over his first 3 years and given himself the opportunity for a larger second contract as well by staying another year and people like you think it's stupid.

SMH

Its a terrible idea, unless you are a one contract player.  If you have any sort of a long term NBA career, it costs you more than it earns you, by removing a year from your finite window of playing time for marginal return.

I stopped reading after you said WCS made a bad decision to return.  You do realize he was projected a mid-late first round last year and now he's projected by nearly every mock draft as a top 10 pick.  But, then that would kill your whole point.

WCS did make a bad decision.  Will he be happier for it, when his career is done?  Hard to say.  What price do you put on happiness/inclusion in a historical championship/etc?

In financial terms, he did hurt himself.     He's moved up, but cost himself a year of earnings, and more important, contractual freedom under the current rookie salary structure, which means an extra year of team-controlled earnings in a very finite basketball career.

[-Blu]

WCS did make a bad decision.  Will he be happier for it, when his career is done?  Hard to say.  What price do you put on happiness/inclusion in a historical championship/etc?

In financial terms, he did hurt himself.     He's moved up, but cost himself a year of earnings, and more important, contractual freedom under the current rookie salary structure, which means an extra year of team-controlled earnings in a very finite basketball career.

Your operating under the assumption that a top 10 pick and the #20 pick have the same opportunities.  It's a HUGE difference in opportunities they will be given.  At the #20 you may go to a team where no matter how well you play your not going to make their rotation.  All that leaving a year early for contractual freedom won't mean anything if you spend most of the time in the D-League and nobody wants to sign you for a second contract.

And very possible WCS could have fell into the late 20s if he left last year, when this year he could probably go as high as #5.  If I'm WCS I like my chances of surviving in the league a lot more coming out this year, than last year, I don't know how you got a bad decision out of that.

[Danny J]

Another thing that bugs me is people say "well...he could get injured if he sticks around another year so better leave now and get his money" and at the same time some people state "he needs to leave now because every year he spends in college he is losing a year at the end of his NBA career".

So in one breath it is "hurry and get your money before you get injured" and in another breath "it is think of all the money you will lose at the end of your career by staying in college".....talk about having it both ways. It is like saying to a 22 year old entering the workforce "you need to go spend all that money you are making because you may get hit by a bus tomorrow but at the same time you need to ask your HR dept about your pension plan and 401K and how much you will draw upon retirement".

Seems there are some folks around here who are more of NBA fans than they are of college and want the best players in the NBA as soon as they can get them and to hell with the college game. I am just the opposite.

[-Blu]

Another thing that bugs me is people say "well...he could get injured if he sticks around another year so better leave now and get his money" and at the same time some people state "he needs to leave now because every year he spends at college he is losing a year at the end of his NBA career".

So in one breath it is "hurry and get your money before you get injured" and in another breath "it is think of all the money you will lose at the end of your career by staying in college".....talk about having it both ways. Seems there are some folks around here who are more of NBA fans than they are of college and want the best players in the NBA as soon as they can get them and to hell with the college game. I am just the opposite.

What's funny about that is, it's actually possible you could cut a couple of years off your career by going into the NBA too soon.  Guys forget the NBA plays 82 games not including playoffs, summer league, and pre-season basketball.  And if your pick that goes to a playoff team, it's possible your playing 100+ games a year, that's a lot of wear and tear on your body.  You better make sure when you declare your ready both mentally and physically.

[Danny J]

What's funny about that is, it's actually possible you could cut a couple of years off your career by going into the NBA too soon.  Guys forget the NBA plays 82 games not including playoffs, summer league, and pre-season basketball.  And if your pick that goes to a playoff team, it's possible your playing 100+ games a year, that's a lot of wear and tear on your body.  You better make sure when you declare your ready both mentally and physically.

Yep...sounds tiring every time I think about it.

[ErieHog]

Another thing that bugs me is people say "well...he could get injured if he sticks around another year so better leave now and get his money" and at the same time some people state "he needs to leave now because every year he spends in college he is losing a year at the end of his NBA career".

So in one breath it is "hurry and get your money before you get injured" and in another breath "it is think of all the money you will lose at the end of your career by staying in college".....talk about having it both ways. It is like saying to a 22 year old entering the workforce "you need to go spend all that money you are making because you may get hit by a bus tomorrow but at the same time you need to ask your HR dept about your pension plan and 401K and how much you will draw upon retirement".

Seems there are some folks around here who are more of NBA fans than they are of college and want the best players in the NBA as soon as they can get them and to hell with the college game. I am just the opposite.

Actually, you can have it both ways;  the only condition that makes it otherwise,  would be not getting a 2nd contract.   The career itself won't be any longer-- if a player is done at 35, they're done at 35-- but by staying, you lose a full year of earnings *and* one of your total years of activity to a heavily regimented rookie salary scale.

You burn the earnings candle on both ends, to your own detriment.

[Danny J]

Actually, you can have it both ways;  the only condition that makes it otherwise,  would be not getting a 2nd contract.   The career itself won't be any longer-- if a player is done at 35, they're done at 35-- but by staying, you lose a full year of earnings *and* one of your total years of activity to a heavily regimented rookie salary scale.

You burn the earnings candle on both ends, to your own detriment.

I understand all of that and its true however the point I was making was in regards to looking short term versus long term. Short term meaning some say he needs to go now because he may get hurt next year while at the same time talking about the last year on a lengthy contract. Why worry about about 15 years down the road and what he MAY get at the end but be cautious and enter the draft early because he may get hurt that last year in college? If you can't even predict what may happen in 2016 then why try to predict what may happen in 2025? He needs to worry more about short term right now. What is best short term because that may be all he is guaranteed. He may only get one shot and one contract. Just worry about that right now. What happens in 10 years from now will happen.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

Bobby would be more of a sure thing, which is why I think he'd go above most in the next class. Especially if he improves even more in the off season and you know he'll be hungry. Imagine BP even stronger and making better decisions?

At this point he knows who's ahead of him in this class.

What you're saying is logical, but it doesn't seem to work out that way.

For whatever reasons, the less teams know about a draft pick that does seem to have a load of "ceiling" the better.

Once teams get to know a player's game better, they become less and less enchanted.
I guess it's similar to finally dating and bedding the beauty queen after 6 mos of being "her guy".  After you get to see her without the makeup, how she looks first thing in the morning, and how her poop smells after she hits the toilet, the fantasy fades away.

As a basketball fan, I wish all the players would get through their junior year minimum.  If I'm an advising father though, I'd tell them to hit the draft board as soon as the teams and GMs are showing interest before the flaws begin to show.

[Pork Twain]

What's funny about that is, it's actually possible you could cut a couple of years off your career by going into the NBA too soon.  Guys forget the NBA plays 82 games not including playoffs, summer league, and pre-season basketball.  And if your pick that goes to a playoff team, it's possible your playing 100+ games a year, that's a lot of wear and tear on your body.  You better make sure when you declare your ready both mentally and physically.

I was with you all the way up to here.  No matter when you enter, your body is going to get the same amount of wear and tear, unless I missed where they made Jrs that enter the league play less games than sophomores. 

The point many are making is that you have X number of years to play.  For arguements sake, lets say X = 10.  If you stay in college until your Soph year, you still have 8 years left on your body and if you stay till your Jr yr, you have 7 years.  Every year that you stay in college, you run the risk of becoming injured with no return.  If you are actually good enough to enter as a Soph, why wouldn't you?  It could be the difference between 2 and 3 contracts.

[WarPig88]

WCS did make a bad decision.  Will he be happier for it, when his career is done?  Hard to say.  What price do you put on happiness/inclusion in a historical championship/etc?

In financial terms, he did hurt himself.     He's moved up, but cost himself a year of earnings, and more important, contractual freedom under the current rookie salary structure, which means an extra year of team-controlled earnings in a very finite basketball career.

The year of "earnings" he missed out on will be surpassed before the end of his second season now that he has improved his draft status.

Why are you trying to claim that 2 is more than 4? WCS will surpass what he would have made total in TWO seasons by the end of just next season if he goes as high as projected.

Your argument with regards to his decision being financially unsound is ludicrous.

[Smokehouse]

The year of "earnings" he missed out on will be surpassed before the end of his second season now that he has improved his draft status.

Why are you trying to claim that 2 is more than 4? WCS will surpass what he would have made total in TWO seasons by the end of just next season if he goes as high as projected.

Your argument with regards to his decision being financially unsound is ludicrous.

He's not talking about a year of earnings on a rookie contract

[Smokehouse]

I understand all of that and its true however the point I was making was in regards to looking short term versus long term. Short term meaning some say he needs to go now because he may get hurt next year while at the same time talking about the last year on a lengthy contract. Why worry about about 15 years down the road and what he MAY get at the end but be cautious and enter the draft early because he may get hurt that last year in college? If you can't even predict what may happen in 2016 then why try to predict what may happen in 2025? He needs to worry more about short term right now. What is best short term because that may be all he is guaranteed. He may only get one shot and one contract. Just worry about that right now. What happens in 10 years from now will happen.

There are other considerations. It may be unclear if staying another year is even better for him in the short term. Maybe he's got a decent grade now, plays relatively the same next season but slips relative to other prospects (or sticks at about the same spot in the draft).

There's also the NBA pension plan. It pays out a monthly stipend after (if I remember correctly) a player turns 50, but they can accelerate it to start paying out at 45. But you have to be in the league at least 3 years to be enrolled. That's nice future security if you can get it.

If the future is uncertain (which it is), it will always be best to maximize NBA years. If you might be a second round pick, that can mean staying in college, but if you're going to land in the first that will almost equal going.

[ErieHog]

The year of "earnings" he missed out on will be surpassed before the end of his second season now that he has improved his draft status.

Why are you trying to claim that 2 is more than 4? WCS will surpass what he would have made total in TWO seasons by the end of just next season if he goes as high as projected.

Your argument with regards to his decision being financially unsound is ludicrous.

Let's call the two situations Contract 1 (leaving now), and Contract 2 (leaving after next year) ;  the earnings differential from unpaid vs. paid year 1 is certainly possible to make up, presuming a significant draft slot bump (a very large presumption), by Y3 for contract 1 and the end of Y2 in contract 2.   The problem with contract 2  are the earnings limitations in Y3 and Y4's team option, in an era where the overall cap is in the midst of explosive growth;   isn't just about raw salary under that first contract, but how young a player is in getting out from under team control and into the market.

Contract 2 guarantees that the player will be toiling under the rookie scale until 2019-2020, with team option exercises.    Contract one, puts that same player free in 2018-2019, which is going to be a season and a half after the 2017 CBA opt out option, depending on the exact dates of when the union files for renegotiation, and when that negotiation completes.

Even in the very implausible scenario that no one clamors for the existing CBA's renegotiation, the deal brings a player free during a time when the salary cap is exploding upward-- all while not locked into rookie wage scale, and before the League has several years to re-orient the economics of NBA production vis-a-vis new contracts.   

If the CBA is blown up, woe even further to the player who waits--  the deal isn't going to get more favorable for the league, and less favorable for the players-- this last CBA is probably the most team-friendly in the history of salary caps in the history of professional sports.   Instead, a player gets to be a year older before he comes out from under team control, in an even more favorable financial environment for players on the open market sooner.

The economics aren't even in question-- to stay is foolish, unless you aren't a 2 contract guy; even then, they only pay off if you improve your draft position, all while taking on additional risk.

The only incentives that make any sense for staying are purely non-economic.

[PoormansRobbyHampton]

Exactly.  But everyone is scrambling to try to rationalize a reason for him to come back.  There are no professional or basketball reasons for Portis to return.  It's all about his personal desires at this point.

I agree 100%.

If he comes back, it's because he loves being a Razorback and thinks we have a good shot at winning big next year.

But he should leave. That's money in the bank, and even if he goes slightly lower than the lottery, he'll still be another year closer to becoming a free agent than if he stays another year.

I'd love if he came back. If he returns, then we'll be fine regardless of what Michael Qualls does. But he shouldn't return and I'd be surprised if he does.