There are a ton of bigs entering the draft this year....

[Ham Sandwich]

And not nearly as many the next. Bobby could play himself into a lottery pick. Or he can enter the draft with a bunch of other bigs.

If it was me I'd stay and do whatever I could to get as close to my degree as possible and build my stock for a draft with not as much competition for a lotto pick.

[k.c.hawg]

Have you factored in  the one and done's coming in next year? There are 18 5***** players in next years class and 10 of them are 6'9" plus.

[Ham Sandwich]

Have you factored in  the one and done's coming in next year? There are 18 5***** players in next years class and 10 of them are 6'9" plus.

Bobby would be more of a sure thing, which is why I think he'd go above most in the next class. Especially if he improves even more in the off season and you know he'll be hungry. Imagine BP even stronger and making better decisions?

At this point he knows who's ahead of him in this class.

[Big Nasty 34]

Or, go this year later in the draft to a good team and have a chance to learn and have success behind an older PF...

[nwahogfan1]

When your projected between 15 and 30 it all boils down to what the team is after.  If those teams are looking to fill another position the farther your draft status goes. Scary.  I guess what Bobby and his people will look into is who needs his position in those spots and who is coming out.

I hope him and Qualls come back, work their butts off to get better and get us back into the top 5 conversations again.

Woo Pig

[Pork Twain]

Bobby is a sure thing this year and we will be very lucky if he comes back. 

[JayBell]

Bobby is a sure thing this year and we will be very lucky if he comes back.

Exactly.  But everyone is scrambling to try to rationalize a reason for him to come back.  There are no professional or basketball reasons for Portis to return.  It's all about his personal desires at this point.

[MountieDawg]

And not nearly as many the next. Bobby could play himself into a lottery pick. Or he can enter the draft with a bunch of other bigs.

If it was me I'd stay and do whatever I could to get as close to my degree as possible and build my stock for a draft with not as much competition for a lotto pick.

I put myself and 3 kids thru college and while it was expensive, it could easily be paid for with a million dollars if he wants to pay for school himself later.

[Ham Sandwich]

All I am saying is that he could play his way into lotto money. He won't get that this draft.

[Pork Twain]

All I am saying is that he could play his way into lotto money. He won't get that this draft.

What he will get is a real contract which he will not get at Arkansas and he will be one year closer to hitting free agency.  Not sure how he is going to improve upon SEC player of the year.

[Smokehouse]

All I am saying is that he could play his way into lotto money. He won't get that this draft.

He's not going to play his stock any higher than it is now. Better to start his service time now and hit his second contract sooner. Teams will have a lot of money to throw around the next several years when the cap booms next summer and they still have players locked up on older, relatively cheaper contracts. You don't get a piece of that pie on your rookie contract.

[onebadrubi]

Or, go this year later in the draft to a good team and have a chance to learn and have success behind an older PF...

This is my thoughts as well

[TomBigBeeHog]

Bobby is not a big. I don't really know what to do with him in the NBA, but it sure ain't a big. Look, I love the kid, but the last 3 or 4 games he got flat out whipped on the inside. I don't think he is anywhere close to ready. Imo.

double figure rebounds in those games indicate that he did not get whipped but by all means, continue.

[jm]

All I am saying is that he could play his way into lotto money. He won't get that this draft.

Or, he could get hurt or play poorly and lose any hope of ever playing for money.

[Hawg Red]

Or, he could get hurt or play poorly and lose any hope of ever playing for money.

Extremely doubtful that he goes from borderline lottery pick to no hope of playing professional basketball. It's 2015. Not 1991.

[Atlhogfan1]

I don't think this matters as much to Portis based on the rumors as he appears to be making his decision on emotion more than basketball.  Nothing wrong with that either if it is what he wants. 

[jackflash]

Judging who going where is hard. They do so much drafting of European players. Their is a lot of Big Man over there

[HF#1]

Folks claiming Portis can't improve his spot in the draft by coming back are fools.  Going from 15th to 5th could be a 2 million dollar jump. 

[Hawg Red]

Folks claiming Portis can't improve his spot in the draft by coming back are fools.  Going from 15th to 5th could be a 2 million dollar jump.

Frank Kaminsky jumped for late 1st to early 2nd as a junior to probable lottery pick as a senior. Adrieane Payne did something similar last year. If Bobby's worst case is he's drafted in the same range, guess what? He's actually making more money next year in the same range because the salary cap goes up and the rookie salaries move up with it.

[Dan42AR]

Whatever Bobby does I don't think money will be the big factor. I think it will be what he desires for the next year. Does he want one more year of school or to be a professional? I wish him the best of luck in which ever way he goes.

[Smokehouse]

Frank Kaminsky jumped for late 1st to early 2nd as a junior to probable lottery pick as a senior. Adrieane Payne did something similar last year. If Bobby's worst case is he's drafted in the same range, guess what? He's actually making more money next year in the same range because the salary cap goes up and the rookie salaries move up with it.

The cap increase is not going to move rookie salaries up that much. One year on the back end of an NBA career is going to pay out significantly more than whatever the difference is between this year and next year's rookie contracts. One can only play so many years of competitive basketball.

Financially, the best option is clearly to go this year. There are plenty of other reasons that could convince him to stay, though.

[NS02]

Bobby is not a big. I don't really know what to do with him in the NBA, but it sure ain't a big. Look, I love the kid, but the last 3 or 4 games he got flat out whipped on the inside. I don't think he is anywhere close to ready. Imo.

I agree.  He does not have NBA skills at this time.  He has the size and agility, but must improve his basketball skills for NBA.

[Sharky]

Folks claiming Portis can't improve his spot in the draft by coming back are fools.  Going from 15th to 5th could be a 2 million dollar jump.

*could. But that seems unlikely. He has a ceiling, and it's probably around 12 or 13. More importantly, there is no financial or development reasons to take that risk. Plus, Portis would lose a net year off his NBA playing career, which, could cost him a net $5-$8 million (car more likely than your $2 million short-term gain). As another person posted, there is no rational reason for BP to stay, so long as he is projected to go first round, which will give him two years of guaranteed salary and development time. And with two years of NBA-level training, Portis will probably develop into a long-term NBA player, barring any injury.

Qualls is more likely to stay because of his draft projection, plus supposedly he is close to attaining his degree (13 hours, one article said).

[hawgsalot]

Good grief it seems like there is a ton of wannabe agents trying to talk BP into going.  BP doesn't have a freaking ceiling.  Tons of examples of bigs who really improved their stock, WCS says hello.  All you guys keep pointing to the money by the end of the career lol, these guys aren't worried about that.  BP knows full well he has the talent to never have to work an 8 to 5 job and he has a mentor that is telling him when you decide to go it's a different deal.  It's a real job against real men.  When he's ready then the rest will fall into place, the money could very easily be much greater next year but it's really not all about the money, it'll be there either way.

[870hogfan]

Good to know we have some NBA scouts on Hogville...

[hoghiker]

Portis seems like a good person. Seems to like people, the game and the atmosphere surrounding college ball. I'd love for him to be a Hog next year but a decision to do that could cost him a career in the NBA. A career ending injury isn't probable but it is possible. I'd feel really bad as an Arkansas fan if he returned and some freak injury happened. His dream is standing right in front of him: he'd be wise to go in my opinion.

[ErieHog]

Folks claiming Portis can't improve his spot in the draft by coming back are fools.  Going from 15th to 5th could be a 2 million dollar jump. 

Folks who don't understand why waiting a year is bad for his career earnings, are bad at math    Basketball only gives you so many miles, before you get hurt or can't play well enough to be paid;  the earlier into the cycle you get into being paid, the longer your earning window.   

You always take a small penalty up front, for extending the earnings window-- and $2M is a small price to pay--  and Bobby is never going to be a Top 5 pick-- those are projections of ability, not for people who have extra years and extra miles under their belts.   The NBA doesn't pay a premium for used tires.

[-Blu]

You always take a small penalty up front, for extending the earnings window-- and $2M is a small price to pay--  and Bobby is never going to be a Top 5 pick-- those are projections of ability, not for people who have extra years and extra miles under their belts.   The NBA doesn't pay a premium for used tires.

Victor Oladipo from 2013 draft says what up!

Thomas Robinson and Damian Lillard from 2012 draft says nice to meet you!

Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Ekpe Udoh from 2010 class says Hello!

All these guys were juniors within the last 5 drafts and drafted within the top 6 picks.  Now that's not a lot, but as you can see there are clearly exceptions.  WCS should add to that list this year as well.  Would you have said last year if he comes back he'll be projected as a top 10 pick?  Kamisky is also another guy who could end up being a top 10 pick or around that area.

And I haven't seen any posters deny Portis could go this year and be a first round pick, it's possible he could go this year and be a lottery pick, you never know with the draft.  But, it's also very possible he could come back next year and increase his stock.  Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick? Lottery pick?  We don't know.  But, saying there's no chance he's top 5 pick, and those spots are reserved only for freshmen means your ignoring past drafts, it's happened before with lesser talented guys, it really all depends on how these other bigs look after next year, it's possible Portis could be the best big coming out.

[Atlhogfan1]

Do some of you really give a darn if he improves his draft position by returning or if it is the right decision for him from a career/financial standpoint?  Or are you creating reasons to sell yourself to make yourself feels better if he returns? 

[Smokehouse]

Victor Oladipo from 2013 draft says what up!

Thomas Robinson and Damian Lillard from 2012 draft says nice to meet you!

Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Ekpe Udoh from 2010 class says Hello!

All these guys were juniors within the last 5 drafts and drafted within the top 6 picks.  Now that's not a lot, but as you can see there are clearly exceptions.  WCS should add to that list this year as well.  Would you have said last year if he comes back he'll be projected as a top 10 pick?  Kamisky is also another guy who could end up being a top 10 pick or around that area.

And I haven't seen any posters deny Portis could go this year and be a first round pick, it's possible he could go this year and be a lottery pick, you never know with the draft.  But, it's also very possible he could come back next year and increase his stock.  Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick? Lottery pick?  We don't know.  But, saying there's no chance he's top 5 pick, and those spots are reserved only for freshmen means your ignoring past drafts, it's happened before with lesser talented guys, it really all depends on how these other bigs look after next year, it's possible Portis could be the best big coming out.

With the exception of Lillard and Turner, all the guys you named made significant improvement in their last season of college ball. Oladipo added an effective three point shot, Robinson doubled his points and rebounding totals, Udoh only missed doubling both as well by .2 rebounds a game, Johnson doubled his rebounds, steals, and blocks per game and had a healthy boost to his 3P%. Turner didn't have quite as big a jump as the others but still added good value in assists, steals and points. Lillard was the only one to maintain from his junior year and he's an outlier playing at Weber State against weaker competition.

Bobby has is at 17.5 ppg, 8.9 rbpg, 1.1 steals, 1.4 blocks. Shooting over 50% on a high volume of shots. Over 70% from the charity stripe. He's not going to bulk up and start pushing guys around more. He just doesn't have the room to improve his draft stock anywhere near the degree of anyone you mentioned.

There are plenty of reasons Bobby might want to come back, and if he does want to then that's the best thing for him and great for all of us fans. But, financially, he should go this year. He's not going to be a top 6 pick next year (and the year off his professional career probably isn't worth it even if he is).

[ErieHog]

Victor Oladipo from 2013 draft says what up!

Thomas Robinson and Damian Lillard from 2012 draft says nice to meet you!

Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Ekpe Udoh from 2010 class says Hello!

All these guys were juniors within the last 5 drafts and drafted within the top 6 picks.  Now that's not a lot, but as you can see there are clearly exceptions.  WCS should add to that list this year as well.  Would you have said last year if he comes back he'll be projected as a top 10 pick?  Kamisky is also another guy who could end up being a top 10 pick or around that area.

And I haven't seen any posters deny Portis could go this year and be a first round pick, it's possible he could go this year and be a lottery pick, you never know with the draft.  But, it's also very possible he could come back next year and increase his stock.  Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick? Lottery pick?  We don't know.  But, saying there's no chance he's top 5 pick, and those spots are reserved only for freshmen means your ignoring past drafts, it's happened before with lesser talented guys, it really all depends on how these other bigs look after next year, it's possible Portis could be the best big coming out.

How many of those guys are 6'10 or taller?

One.  And 6 isn't 5, either.

WCS's decision was regarded as a bad one at the time--  he hasn't helped his draft stock that much, especially with last year's thin draft on 5s behind Embid--  and he's lost a year of NBA earnings and service time-- he would have likely gone between 10 and 15 last year, and now is a 5-10 pick, most likely.

Kaminsky's return matters for him, because he had to play his way into a 1st round draft spot--  and not everyone is sold that he will go Top 10--  Bobby doesn't.

Bobby's decision is much more WCS-like, and would be repeating WCS' mistake, to return.


And anyone who is picked by a lottery eligible team, is considered a lottery pick.

[Pork Twain]

Victor Oladipo from 2013 draft says what up!

Thomas Robinson and Damian Lillard from 2012 draft says nice to meet you!

Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Ekpe Udoh from 2010 class says Hello!

All these guys were juniors within the last 5 drafts and drafted within the top 6 picks.  Now that's not a lot, but as you can see there are clearly exceptions.  WCS should add to that list this year as well. 

How many guys left after their Soph years and signed solid contracts and then followed them up with even bigger contracts?  Coming back for the Jr year is not locking anything in but is risking injury.

First Round Only
2014 draft had 2 Jrs vs 8 Soph
2013 draft had 6 Jrs vs 8 Soph
2012 draft had 6 Jrs vs 11 Soph
2011 draft had 8 Jrs vs 3 Soph
2010 draft had 9 Jrs vs 8 Soph

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/drafting-sophomores-is-a-smart-strategy-for-nba-teams/

http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/03/17/top-30-draft-board-version-2-nba-draft-not-sole-proving-ground-for-prospects/index.html

18. Bobby Portis | Arkansas | PF | 6-11/230

Bobby Portis
Can Bobby Portis improve his shooting range?

Portis can fit in the stretch-four mold, someone who can make a shot with range (though not yet out to the 3-point line) and pass. That's good, and also a potential problem. Is he simply a tweener?

[jry04]

Bobby is not a big. I don't really know what to do with him in the NBA, but it sure ain't a big. Look, I love the kid, but the last 3 or 4 games he got flat out whipped on the inside. I don't think he is anywhere close to ready. Imo.

He had a double-double in both games. He did not play great, and he still had a double-double. I would hardly call that whipped.

Not sure how you say a 6'10" post, SEC POY is not considered a big. 18 points 14 rebounds against the UNC bigs. 32 points 11 rebounds against future 1st rounder Damian Jones from Vandy. 21 and 15 against Martin from LSU. 19 and 8 against Iowa State, on 8 of 10 shooting. 15 and 8 the first time against UK.

The guy struggled at times, but could sleep walk and put up double digits. 14 double-doubles this season. His game is similar to KG. He isn't a C at the next level, but he is definitely a big.

[WarPig88]

How many of those guys are 6'10 or taller?

One.  And 6 isn't 5, either.

WCS's decision was regarded as a bad one at the time--  he hasn't helped his draft stock that much, especially with last year's thin draft on 5s behind Embid--  and he's lost a year of NBA earnings and service time-- he would have likely gone between 10 and 15 last year, and now is a 5-10 pick, most likely.

Kaminsky's return matters for him, because he had to play his way into a 1st round draft spot--  and not everyone is sold that he will go Top 10--  Bobby doesn't.

Bobby's decision is much more WCS-like, and would be repeating WCS' mistake, to return.


And anyone who is picked by a lottery eligible team, is considered a lottery pick.

If WCS really improved from 10-15 to 5-10, he made himself millions by staying. Not a million, but millions!!!!!!!!

At the 5, he will make 9 mil, whereas at the the 15 he would make 4 mil over the course of his first contract.

Since when is a chance at making an additional 4 mil a bad idea? It means that the team that drafts you has more invested and will be more likely to be more patient in hopes you develop further which puts you in better bargaining position come the second contract as well.

The notion of "you have to go now or miss a year of earnings" is misguided and costing a lot of guys multiple millions of dollars.

Seriously, WCS has probably DOUBLED his money over his first 3 years and given himself the opportunity for a larger second contract as well by staying another year and people like you think it's stupid.

SMH

[870hogfan]

How many of those guys are 6'10 or taller?

One.  And 6 isn't 5, either.

WCS's decision was regarded as a bad one at the time--  he hasn't helped his draft stock that much, especially with last year's thin draft on 5s behind Embid--  and he's lost a year of NBA earnings and service time-- he would have likely gone between 10 and 15 last year, and now is a 5-10 pick, most likely.

Kaminsky's return matters for him, because he had to play his way into a 1st round draft spot--  and not everyone is sold that he will go Top 10--  Bobby doesn't.

Bobby's decision is much more WCS-like, and would be repeating WCS' mistake, to return.


And anyone who is picked by a lottery eligible team, is considered a lottery pick.

Again I ask why is it a mistake to return and move up in the draft?

[Pork Twain]

Again I ask why is it a mistake to return and move up in the draft?

Because if you are good enough to get drafted, every year you stay in school is one more year you will not be getting paid and one more year you are risking injury and never getting paid.

[Pork Twain]

If WCS really improved from 10-15 to 5-10, he made himself millions by staying. Not a million, but millions!!!!!!!!

At the 5, he will make 9 mil, whereas at the the 15 he would make 4 mil over the course of his first contract.

Since when is a chance at making an additional 4 mil a bad idea? It means that the team that drafts you has more invested and will be more likely to be more patient in hopes you develop further which puts you in better bargaining position come the second contract as well.

The notion of "you have to go now or miss a year of earnings" is misguided and costing a lot of guys multiple millions of dollars.

Seriously, WCS has probably DOUBLED his money over his first 3 years and given himself the opportunity for a larger second contract as well by staying another year and people like you think it's stupid.

SMH

The first 3-4 years will be the least amount you earn during your NBA career.  The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract.

I want BP to stay as bad as anyone but other than his heart telling him to, which I hope it does, there is really nothing holding him here.  There is nothing to say that he will improve his outside shot enough, there will not be a solid group of freshmen bigs next year and that he will not get hurt next year.  THose are all unknowns.

A bird in the hand...

[-Blu]

How many of those guys are 6'10 or taller?

One.  And 6 isn't 5, either.

WCS's decision was regarded as a bad one at the time--  he hasn't helped his draft stock that much, especially with last year's thin draft on 5s behind Embid--  and he's lost a year of NBA earnings and service time-- he would have likely gone between 10 and 15 last year, and now is a 5-10 pick, most likely.

Kaminsky's return matters for him, because he had to play his way into a 1st round draft spot--  and not everyone is sold that he will go Top 10--  Bobby doesn't.

Bobby's decision is much more WCS-like, and would be repeating WCS' mistake, to return.


And anyone who is picked by a lottery eligible team, is considered a lottery pick.

I stopped reading after you said WCS made a bad decision to return.  You do realize he was projected a mid-late first round last year and now he's projected by nearly every mock draft as a top 10 pick.  But, then that would kill your whole point.

[-Blu]

The first 3-4 years will be the least amount you earn during your NBA career.  The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract.

I want BP to stay as bad as anyone but other than his heart telling him to, which I hope it does, there is really nothing holding him here.  There is nothing to say that he will improve his outside shot enough, there will not be a solid group of freshmen bigs next year and that he will not get hurt next year.  THose are all unknowns.

A bird in the hand...

Your leaving out key information.  It's not as simple as you guys make it seem, which is "The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract."  If you go by statistics your more likely to be out of the NBA after your first contract.  The average NBA career is less than 5 years, a lot of guys leave that information out when their talking about leaving early.  So, when you go to the NBA you better make sure your ready and can hold a spot on a team, otherwise you won't have to worry about that second contract.  You can pretty much look at any draft in the past and go to the bottom of the first round and most of those guys aren't in the NBA anymore or they are in the D-League.

When your projected to be a mid-late first round pick you run the risk of going to a good team, getting buried in the depth chart, and going over to the D-League, which is not an ideal situation.  Yes, you get a guaranteed contract, but there's no guarantee of playing time and it's not even guaranteed you'll get a legit shot at making the rotation.  Now, if your a lottery pick there are the same risks, but those risks are decreased because your going to a bad team that needs players, they've invested more into you, and because lottery picks are more valuable when your talking about trade assets.  So, more times than not your going to get a legit shot to prove yourself and usually on top picks they make room for you to be in the rotation and give you time to grow. 

[The_Iceman]

Myles Turner has announced he is entering the draft. Another 6'11" big man ranked ahead of Portis in most mock drafts.

[Pork Twain]

Your leaving out key information.  It's not as simple as you guys make it seem, which is "The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract."  If you go by statistics your more likely to be out of the NBA after your first contract.  The average NBA career is less than 5 years, a lot of guys leave that information out when their talking about leaving early.  So, when you go to the NBA you better make sure your ready and can hold a spot on a team, otherwise you won't have to worry about that second contract.  You can pretty much look at any draft in the past and go to the bottom of the first round and most of those guys aren't in the NBA anymore or they are in the D-League.

When your projected to be a mid-late first round pick you run the risk of going to a good team, getting buried in the depth chart, and going over to the D-League, which is not an ideal situation.  Yes, you get a guaranteed contract, but there's no guarantee of playing time and it's not even guaranteed you'll get a legit shot at making the rotation.  Now, if your a lottery pick there are the same risks, but those risks are decreased because your going to a bad team that needs players, they've invested more into you, and because lottery picks are more valuable when your talking about trade assets.  So, more times than not your going to get a legit shot to prove yourself and usually on top picks they make room for you to be in the rotation and give you time to grow. 

Good stuff there, but you are still taking a risk by coming back and getting injured and just because you come back does not mean you will improve your draft position of be more successful once you do enter the league.

[Hawg Red]

There is no right or wrong decision for Bobby here. For a lot of kids, there is a right or wrong move to make. But not for Bobby. I think any decision he makes here is solid. There are potential risks and rewards either way. He just has to do what he thinks is best. He's a solid 1st round pick, so there is no harm in him going pro. He has a good enough work ethic and has gained enough national hype, that coming back is okay, too. He can continue to work on his game and body either way. I've said all along -- this comes down to what he wants his legacy as a Razorback to be. If he comes back, I don't think he's costing himself too much, if any, money. 2016 figures to be a weaker draft for the big man positions. I see him going in the same range or a little higher if he comes out next year. I don't expect that his stock will move too much in either direction. Again, how much does it mean to him to come back and lead the Hogs to a Sweet 16/Elite 8/Final 4? That's the question here. He can't get that opportunity back if he goes pro right now, but he will still have the opportunity to play in the NBA if he comes back.

[Sharky]

Your leaving out key information.  It's not as simple as you guys make it seem, which is "The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract."  If you go by statistics your more likely to be out of the NBA after your first contract.  The average NBA career is less than 5 years, a lot of guys leave that information out when their talking about leaving early.  So, when you go to the NBA you better make sure your ready and can hold a spot on a team, otherwise you won't have to worry about that second contract.  You can pretty much look at any draft in the past and go to the bottom of the first round and most of those guys aren't in the NBA anymore or they are in the D-League.

When your projected to be a mid-late first round pick you run the risk of going to a good team, getting buried in the depth chart, and going over to the D-League, which is not an ideal situation.  Yes, you get a guaranteed contract, but there's no guarantee of playing time and it's not even guaranteed you'll get a legit shot at making the rotation.  Now, if your a lottery pick there are the same risks, but those risks are decreased because your going to a bad team that needs players, they've invested more into you, and because lottery picks are more valuable when your talking about trade assets.  So, more times than not your going to get a legit shot to prove yourself and usually on top picks they make room for you to be in the rotation and give you time to grow.

It's two years guaranteed, with a two years of contract option. As long as the player is progressing, he'll get at least two years of development time. The greater risk is to have a minor injury that drops your draft stock to second round, or makes it so you have to play another year of college ball, which would set his earnings potential back two years instead of one.

You're taking low probability scenarios and talking like they are fact. If BP stays, most likely he increases his draft stock a 3-5 places, but it's a silly personal risk.

Most likely BP goes to the NBA, continues to build his skills, and has a good long run in the NBA. If he stays, he likely costs himself several million dollars by cutting a year off his NBA career earnings.

There aren't really very many 5-year NBA careers--there are players who go for 8-12 years and then there are players from the second-round and d-league who only make the roster for a few days, weeks, or months. Bobby Portis is the former, no matter whether he goes this year or next.

Heck, BP might stay because he genuinely loves Arkansas, or he has a girlfriend on campus, or he wants another shot at the NCAA tournament. Financially and from a development standpoint, BP gains little by staying--he's not playing NBA-style basketball here.

I'd love to see BP stay, but I also cringe at the thought of taking such a crazy risk.

[WarPig88]

The first 3-4 years will be the least amount you earn during your NBA career.  The sooner you get those 3-4 years started, the quicker you can sign your first big contract.

I want BP to stay as bad as anyone but other than his heart telling him to, which I hope it does, there is really nothing holding him here.  There is nothing to say that he will improve his outside shot enough, there will not be a solid group of freshmen bigs next year and that he will not get hurt next year.  THose are all unknowns.

A bird in the hand...

Actually, for the majority of NBA players, that first 3 seasons represents the MAJORITY of the money they will make in their career.

Avg lifespan of an NBA player is only about 5 seasons. I assume you understand what an average is and how that means that there a lot of guys not even making it to 5 years.

The best way to optimize your NBA career is not by entering the draft as early as you can, but entering it at the highest possible slot your capabilities will allow you to achieve.

The scouting reports I have read on Portis currently say that the only thing that keeps him from being a top ten lock in the season's draft, which is considered a deep draft, is his lack of defensive rebounding and weakness on defense one on one in the post.

The truth is, Portis most likely has 5 years to get all he can. There is no promise of a second contract.

If you really cared about the guy, then you should want him to maximize his earnings over the years he is likely to get. No one is looking at Portis as anything more than a role player in the draft. Think about how long those guys last.

Advice like yours is most likely to cost a guy like Portis MILLIONS.

[Adam Stokes]

I was sent to a language training school for two months to learn Filipino.  When the time was up some people were having passport problems and had to stay behind a little longer at the school while the others got to head straight out.  So they stayed behind and got a few more weeks of language training.  When they arrived to the country and met up with the rest of who had already been with natives for a few weeks, guess who was better at the language?  The ones who went to the country and spoke it, by a long shot.

Being in the NBA is probably the best preparation you'll get for being in the NBA.  You can work on your handles in the NBA just as much as in college.  You can work on your three-point shot in the NBA just as much as college.  I agree for players like Jameer Nelson was after his junior year (2nd round projection) that coming back will help more, but not exactly when you are a borderline lottery pick.  You could even make the argument that playing overseas or the D-league is better preparation for playing in the NBA than college.

I'd be willing to guess that 15 years from now he'll have about the same NBA future regardless of whether or not he stays.  If Bobby comes back it'll be because of his love for the Razorbacks.  Hope his love for the UofA keeps him around a little longer.

[Hawg Red]

I was sent to a language training school for two months to learn Filipino.  When the time was up some people were having passport problems and had to stay behind a little longer at the school while the others got to head straight out.  After a couple of weeks guess who was better at the language?  The ones who went to the country and spoke it, by a long shot.

Being in the NBA is probably the best preparation you'll get for being in the NBA.  You can work on your handles in the NBA just as much as in college.  You can work on your three-point shot in the NBA just as much as college.  I agree for players like Jameer Nelson was after his junior year (2nd round projection) that coming back will help more, but not exactly when you are a borderline lottery pick.  You could even make the argument that playing overseas or the D-league is better preparation for playing in the NBA than college.

If Bobby comes back it'll be because of his love for the Razorbacks.  I'd be willing to guess that he'll have about the same NBA future regardless of whether or not he stays.  Hope his love for the UofA keeps him around a little longer.

+1

[The_Iceman]

Damian Jones returning to Vandy.

[WarPig88]

I'd be willing to guess that 15 years from now he'll have about the same NBA future regardless of whether or not he stays. 

This is the part so many, yourself included are missing. The only difference between him staying or going will be the amount of money he actually makes.

His career will be the same, most likely, regardless.

If his dream is to simply say he made it to the NBA, then he should leave. If his goal is to make as much money as he possibly can, then he would not be wise to go this year.
If his goal is to be a long timer in the league, then he also needs to make sure he is drafted as high as he possibly can be. Any business holds onto the assets it has the most monetary investment in as long as possible before scrapping them.

Portis is not a lock to be a lottery pick at all. That is why if his motivation were money, he would be crazy to go now and not try to improve his stock heading into next season's draft. Where he is currently projecting, there is plenty of room for improvement.

The other thing no one ever talks about is the love of the game. These guys that go to the NBA early and wash out, their dream is done at a very young age.

It's really all about what that player values that makes a decision a smart one or not whether they stay or go.

Those who claim that going now for the money is the wisest are actually about 2nd to the bottom on wisdom in this case. The probability that Portis gets hurt so bad he can't make the league is really small and the reward he would actually receive after taxes and agent's cut, buying mom a new house, will more than likely be less than a million net.

If it's about money, then improving his draft stock is the smartest move he could make in terms of reward. You don't improve your draft stock once you are in the D league or NBA. If you do well, then you are underpaid for 3 years as well. Going to soon leaves a ton of money on the table that your next contract doesn't even catch up for.

[latrops]

He's not going to play his stock any higher than it is now. Better to start his service time now and hit his second contract sooner. Teams will have a lot of money to throw around the next several years when the cap booms next summer and they still have players locked up on older, relatively cheaper contracts. You don't get a piece of that pie on your rookie contract.

First, I am not suggesting that Bobby SHOULD come back.  It's up to him.  However, if he did, I'd expect that part of the rationale would be to get drafted higher next year.  Of course, there is no guarantee that he would go higher next year, and it could even backfire if his game failed to improve as much as would be expected...but it is reasonable to expect that he could improve his stock.  I wouldn't argue that it is the smart thing for him to do, only that it is possible that staying another year could work out as well or better for him.

Some suggest there is a rush to get to a 2nd contract, where the "real money" is made.  However, I don't know why it much matters whether a player gets to their 2nd contract at the age of 24 vs. 25.  You can say they have an extra year of earning potential, but the bulk of their earnings are likely to be from their mid 20s through early 30s.  What they get in their mid to late 30s, if anything, is gravy.  I'm just not sure a player's career earning potential is changed much whether they enter the league after their sophomore season or junior season.  What matters is that the player actually proves that they can play in the NBA.  Getting drafted in the first rd guarantees you a couple of years and decent money starting out, but everything beyond that has to be earned on the court.

[thirrdegreetusker]

Exactly.  But everyone is scrambling to try to rationalize a reason for him to come back.  There are no professional or basketball reasons for Portis to return.  It's all about his personal desires at this point.

Uhhh...gotta disagree. A #20 pick makes one million. A #10 pick makes 3 million.

The vast majority of pro athletes get one contract in a lifetime. For every Kobe who plays 20 years, 15 guys get only one year.