Vegas knows something

[Tick Hog]

 The betting line has gone from -8.5 to -5 to off the board on several sites i keep up with. At first i thought well its the stupid Aggie Fans betting the line down but as much as i look at lines they don't move this way and especially go off the board for being heavy on one side. I would assume an injury somewhere but who knows somebody in the betting world definitely has some inside info but i guess we will have to wait and see.

[jkstock04]

Last year it was -1..or maybe -2.  They aren't ALWAYS right.  But ya being as that is moving the opposite direction (NEARLY CUT IN HALF FROM WHAT IT WAS AT BEGINNING OF WEEK) I thought it would is strange to me...and it makes you wonder if it is simply a very few HEAVY action bets on A&M....or if Vegas does really know something we dont?  Injury or key suspension?  You know the coaches wouldn't peep a hint of anything like this to the public.  I have no idea why the line is moving the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Yesterday when it was -6 I thought I had better jump on it quick...bet a bundle....now it is -5 and I'm staying away.  Too good to be true.  Smells fishy...something ain't right.

[DukeOfPork]

Curiously, ABC is showing this game in Vegas.  It's like an oasis on the map.

Obviously, it is showing in Montana due to the Petrino connections, but I was wondering why Vegas is seeing it.

[kudzuhog]

the fix is in

[85AHog]

BP gives all the insider info to Vegas. Pretty sure I saw it on that spreadsheet

[Mo_Better_Hogs]

The Aggies have a secret weapon.     

[Tick Hog]

 Bp might not but that doesn't mean he can keep 100 other people inside the program not leaking. I watched A@M play and I'm sure most of you did as well. There not even on the same page as talent goes and that's not just being a homer.

[Karma]

Is anyone an ESPN Insider? They have an article today discussing the strange movement on the Arkansas line.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5658137&utm_source=ESPN&utm_medium=twitter

[Bubba's Bruisers]

When you say "Vegas knows something", who exactly is "Vegas"?

[Tick Hog]

 ESPN doesn't really say much of nothing just recognised the line movement and says that they still like Arkansas to cover

[Tick Hog]

When you say "Vegas knows something", who exactly is "Vegas"?

The same people that the ESPN game day crew always refer to as our friends out in the desert.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

The same people that the ESPN game day crew always refer to as our friends out in the desert.

That clears it up.

[fearless_leader]

all you know by the line moving that much that fast is that there is a ton of money going to A&M beating the spread.

[want2be]

Maybe the Oddsmakers think this is a home game for A&M

The only injury known for sure is Madison

Maybe it is because we haven't had a running game

[sickboy]

Curiously, ABC is showing this game in Vegas.  It's like an oasis on the map.

Obviously, it is showing in Montana due to the Petrino connections, but I was wondering why Vegas is seeing it.

Maybe because we hired a coach from Nevada? Not sure, but that would be my guess.

[56Hog]

When you say "Vegas knows something", who exactly is "Vegas"?

Vegas Ferguson, former Notre Dame and Patriots running back...Ferguson currently resides in Richmond, Indiana. He is employed as an attendance liaison officer at Richmond High School.

Looks like someone's been playing hooky and wagering heavily on the Ags.

Or, more likely the line was set to low to begin with, all the money came in on Arkansas, none on A&M and they were pushing the line down to get the Vegas knows something effect to sucker some money onto A&M to minimize the loss.  It didn't work and now its been taken off to stop the bleeding.

[3kgthog]

The only inside info that would drive a line down like that would be a suspension or injury to Mallett. Obviously we would've heard about both with so many people on here being close to the program.

[kudzuhog]

The only inside info that would drive a line down like that would be a suspension or injury to Mallett. Obviously we would've heard about both with so many people on here being close to the program.

[maxhog79]

A wiseguy dropped some cash on Arkansas and then you had everyone following him.  Once this happened the oddsmakers adjusted the line. That explains the drop from 7.5 to 5.5  I think people are panicking about this game because they assume there must be a reason for the line movement. This happens every week on multiple games and the smart money is only right half the time.  Arkansas is coming off a bye week after a loss and will be ready to play, there is no doubt about that.  The aggies will also be fired up so it should be a great game but I will take an SEC team any day of the week over a Big 12 team.

www.wiseguyedge.com

[Karma]

A wiseguy dropped some cash on Arkansas and then you had everyone following him.  Once this happened the oddsmakers adjusted the line. That explains the drop from 7.5 to 5.5  I think people are panicking about this game because they assume there must be a reason for the line movement. This happens every week on multiple games and the smart money is only right half the time.  Arkansas is coming off a bye week after a loss and will be ready to play, there is no doubt about that.  The aggies will also be fired up so it should be a great game but I will take an SEC team any day of the week over a Big 12 team.

www.wiseguyedge.com

If there was a big bet on Arkansas, that would make the line go up to attract Aggie money.

[chortle]

When you say "Vegas knows something", who exactly is "Vegas"?

James Shibest, cause he is money.

[Arkiebrian]

Vegas Insider says Childs is questionable...how they would know that is beyond me but I don't think that would affect the line as much as it has moved

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=228

[Beantown Razahback]

The only thing that would make a line move that much and then come off the board completely is an irregular betting pattern. Even when there is a major injury that comes out of nowhere or a huge question mark that would affect where the money goes (think Tebow heading into LSU last year) they rarely take the line off completely, they just play it safe and adjust accordingly right up until gametime. Smart money in this situation is on large sums of money being wagered to influence the line and Vegas protecting itself.

[Slimgoodman]

If there was a big bet on Arkansas, that would make the line go up to attract Aggie money.

The line rose from 6.5 to 8.5 rather quickly based on heavy pro Arkansas bets, then the money shifted and started attracting pro aggie bets and dropped.

Sal says he agrees with the original bettors who drove the line up and favors Arkansas in this one and quotes some pretty good Arkansas stats from the Alabama game to support his position.

[catfish07]

The public is playing the Hogs and the line is still dropping which is odd. I would not play this game with your money.

TAMU is dangerous despite what we think.

[guy8699]

I doubt Childs is questionable since he has been practicing at full speed?

[Arkiebrian]

I doubt Childs is questionable since he has been practicing at full speed?

yeah not sure Vegas has any info we don't

they had Florida's Brantley as questionable earlier in the week and now they have him as probable

[TXrazorback]

IT'S THE SPREADSHEET!!!!!

[EastTexasHog]

Must have some dirty refs!

[RollHogTide]

all you know by the line moving that much that fast is that there is a ton of money going to A&M beating the spread.

^^ THIS ^^

[WILL CLINTON]

^^ THIS ^^

Thats what you would think, but 82% of the spread action has gone on Arkansas, while 78% of the moneyline action is on TAmU to win straight up...

[HognotinMemphis]

The betting line has went from -8.5 to -5 to off the board on several sites i keep up with. At first i thought well its the stupid Aggie Fans betting the line down but as much as i look at lines they don't move this way and especially go off the board for being heavy on one side. I would assume an injury somewhere but who knows somebody in the betting world definitely has some inside info but i guess we will have to wait and see.

Hey, I have to say something here about your grammar. "Has went"? Where did you attend school? That's basic stuff, man. I am serious when I say I learned the proper use of "went" and "has or have gone" in the 4th grade. It was a public elementary school in LR...Terry Elementary. Get thee some education.

Gone or Went?

Gone is the past participle of to go. Used as the verb of a sentence, it must always be preceded by an auxiliary verb such as has, have, had, is, am, are, was, were, be, or one of their contractions.


Went is the past tense of to go. It never takes an auxiliary verb.


Incorrect: They gone to the movies.
(Gone needs an auxiliary verb.)

Correct: They have gone to the movies.

Correct: They are gone to the movies.

Correct: They went to the movies.


Incorrect: You could have went with them.
(Went takes no auxiliary verb.)

Correct: You could have gone with them.

[HognotinMemphis]

A wiseguy dropped some cash on Arkansas and then you had everyone following him.  Once this happened the oddsmakers adjusted the line. That explains the drop from 7.5 to 5.5  I think people are panicking about this game because they assume there must be a reason for the line movement. This happens every week on multiple games and the smart money is only right half the time.  Arkansas is coming off a bye week after a loss and will be ready to play, there is no doubt about that.  The aggies will also be fired up so it should be a great game but I will take an SEC team any day of the week over a Big 12 team.

www.wiseguyedge.com

Only 15 posts. Thank God.

[EastTexasHog]

What went in vegas stays gone in vegas?  How that be grammarwise?

[Choctaw Hog]

The betting line has went from -8.5 to -5 to off the board on several sites i keep up with. At first i thought well its the stupid Aggie Fans betting the line down but as much as i look at lines they don't move this way and especially go off the board for being heavy on one side. I would assume an injury somewhere but who knows somebody in the betting world definitely has some inside info but i guess we will have to wait and see.

The public is playing the Hogs and the line is still dropping which is odd. I would not play this game with your money.

TAMU is dangerous despite what we think.

Indeed.  They shut down that vaunted National power, OSU. 

[TN HOG]

My theory is the line opened too low to begin with and I have never noticed Vegas jumping the line up to compensate so the reverse psychology method is being used.  It's the only "logical" answer.

Go Hogs!

[Hogpkins]

I checked the line two days ago and just now on MGM Mirage, and it's been -6 both times.  I guess I missed all the crazy line movement.

[Pigsknuckles]

:double facepalm:

Vegas doesn't build those big beautiful hotels with the money we take out of there.

[RollHogTide]

Thats what you would think, but 82% of the spread action has gone on Arkansas, while 78% of the moneyline action is on TAmU to win straight up...

I didn't research the betting - but, that's pretty amazing.  Are there odds on the aTm straight up?

[catfish07]

Indeed.  They shut down that vaunted National power, OSU. 

Spoken like a true square.

[Choctaw Hog]

Spoken like a true square.

Spoken?  Square? 

[Arkiebrian]

I've been reading a bunch of "betting insider" articles and it seems about 2/3 of them say aTm

why?  the Hogs are rusty, aTm wants revenge, blah, blah

truth is it seems the betting world doesn't respect the Hogs like we do within the state

[catfish07]

Spoken?  Square? 

Yes, pardon the hyperbole with "spoken" instead of "typed" and "square" instead of "the guy who thinks every favorite is going to cover and win big."

[West Coast Hog Fan]

Petrino said today that everyone is healthy and ready to go for Saturday.  Not sure why Vegas thinks that Childs is questionable to go.

[SemperHawg]

Maybe its just the sharp money moving the line around where they can capitalize on it.  These things do happen fairly often, especially in CFB where the big match ups command the largest percentage of attention and scrutiny. 

[Arkiebrian]

this guy, for example, thinks Jerry World is a hostile crowd

http://www.betvega.com/college-football-picks-texas-am-over-arkansas-highlights-week-6-upsets-1008101/

[Arkiebrian]

this guy says the Hogs by 20...now that's more like it

http://www.sportsbooklists.com/blog/ncaa-football/arkansas-vs-texas-am-predictions-100710/

[jjones]

I got Bama at -8 last week versus Florida.  Too good to be true?  No, it was an easy bet that made good money considering watching the two teams play all year and it was a home game for Bama.  No reason that line started anywhere below -10.  Unless A&M comes up with a completely new offensive line, there is no reason for them to score more than 20 on us.  38-17 hogs.  I'll take -5 all day.

[Choctaw Hog]

Yes, pardon the hyperbole with "spoken" instead of "typed" and "square" instead of "the guy who thinks every favorite is going to cover and win big."

Did I post anywhere that the favorite is going to cover and win big?  I didn't think so.  I just posted that A & M shut down that National football power, OSU.  Obviously you don't know satire when you read it just like you don't know the definition of hyperbole.  You should really quit before you appear any more foolish than you already do. 

[OWD]

Per knwa, Petrino has never won after a bye week

Texas A&M 18% ATS      78% ML
Arkansas 82% ATS         22% ML

Watch out for the Aggies Saturday!