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Not as confident that 23 is the magic number today ...

Started by Kevin McPherson, February 23, 2017, 11:34:21 am

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root_hawg


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Breems

Quote from: ErieHog on February 23, 2017, 05:56:27 pm
One win and we're in;  people like this have tried to pooh pooh our placement all year.

We're not  'falling back towards the bubble'-- the picture ahead is merely firming up, regarding 9 seeds and their unclear, swinging resumes.

Arkansas' chances of making the tournament field have been pretty unchanged since the South Carolina game.

Does "one win" mean one win period, or one win in the SECT?

Count me in the group that will be sweating pretty hard if we go 1-3 with a home win vs. Georgia. That's snub territory IMO, especially for an SEC team.

Then again, we make the tournament so rarely these days that I'm traumatized and paranoid about our chances.
Proud member of the "Left Before Halftime" football club.

Quote from: Breems on January 27, 2011, 08:42:29 pm<br />SCREW VANDERBILT<br />

FineAsSwine

Quote from: Breems on February 24, 2017, 09:49:24 am
Does "one win" mean one win period, or one win in the SECT?

Count me in the group that will be sweating pretty hard if we go 1-3 with a home win vs. Georgia. That's snub territory IMO, especially for an SEC team.

Then again, we make the tournament so rarely these days that I'm traumatized and paranoid about our chances.

Lunardi says that we have done enough already to get in. Probably good with one more win but 2 would cement the bid.

hogsanity

Quote from: FineAsSwine on February 24, 2017, 10:06:10 am
Lunardi says that we have done enough already to get in. Probably good with one more win but 2 would cement the bid.

To me that just means that as of now they are in, and if they keep winning they will stay in, but could play their way out with a 1-3 or 0-4 finish.
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jry04

We are 100000000% a lock with 23 wins and it is extremely silly or just ignorant to think anything different. I have said for weeks, if not months that 23 is our # and many disagreed (mostly mizzou man). It blows my mind how many people fail to look at the bubble teams below us and their resumes. If we finish 2-1 we are worrying about whether we are an 8-10 seed, and not whether we are in. Even if we are projected the last 10 seed, we are still 6 teams ahead of the last team in. Something tells me we are the first or second 10 seed to Lunardi, though. We dropped because VT and Miami got wins over teams that were projected in, not because of anything we did. At 23 wins we will have more road wins than anyone else in the SEC, and have a RPI in the top 35 with 3-4 top 50 wins. 0 chance we miss with that. How anyone thinks losing on the road to UF will drop us 6+ spots in the pecking order is confusing. Especially since winning 2 more will boost us up a few spots as others around us lose.

hogwood

With 4 truly mediocre teams from the SEC like Bama, Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee appearing on the bubble watch - with us hopefully owning a win over each one (gotta beat GA) - I think that if we get to 23 wins before the SECT then we are pretty safe. But if after that we lose first thing in the SECT we will be sweating it a bit, but I still think the committee puts 4 SEC teams in this year and we're the best candidate for the 4th spot. Get to 23 wins in the regular season, win 1 in the SECT, and I think we are good.

But for the record I think we end the season at 24-7 and win 2 in the SECT, ending the year at 26-8 and maybe earning a 7 seed.

gmarv

Quote from: hogwood on February 24, 2017, 12:07:34 pm
With 4 truly mediocre teams from the SEC like Bama, Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee appearing on the bubble watch - with us hopefully owning a win over each one (gotta beat GA) - I think that if we get to 23 wins before the SECT then we are pretty safe. But if after that we lose first thing in the SECT we will be sweating it a bit, but I still think the committee puts 4 SEC teams in this year and we're the best candidate for the 4th spot. Get to 23 wins in the regular season, win 1 in the SECT, and I think we are good.

But for the record I think we end the season at 24-7 and win 2 in the SECT, ending the year at 26-8 and maybe earning a 7 seed.
I likes the way you think but a 26-8 record would probable get us a little better than a 7 seed.

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: hogsanity on February 24, 2017, 08:14:40 am
thats great and all but if they close 1-3 including the sect they will be darn lucky to get in.
already in. it's all seeding now. we're still a 10 seed because they expect us to lose 2 of 3
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hogwood

Quote from: gmarv on February 24, 2017, 12:32:45 pm
I likes the way you think but a 26-8 record would probable get us a little better than a 7 seed.

Maybe a 6 but we just don't have the quality wins, and won't unless we beat FLA twice.

Pistol Pig Maravich

Florida MANHANDLED us at home...can we really expect to beat them at their place?

HF#1

Quote from: Pistol Pig Maravich on February 24, 2017, 03:26:12 pm
Florida MANHANDLED us at home...can we really expect to beat them at their place?

No but I expect us to give them a better game. We are a better team right now than we were last time we saw them.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

Breems

Quote from: Pistol Pig Maravich on February 24, 2017, 03:26:12 pm
Florida MANHANDLED us at home...can we really expect to beat them at their place?

So did Vanderbilt who we also beat on the road.

We have 2 teams, and one of them is capable of beating Florida, although I'm afraid even that team's chance is small due to the quickness and skill in Florida's backcourt.
Proud member of the "Left Before Halftime" football club.

Quote from: Breems on January 27, 2011, 08:42:29 pm<br />SCREW VANDERBILT<br />

 

ErieHog

Quote from: Breems on February 24, 2017, 09:49:24 am
Does "one win" mean one win period, or one win in the SECT?

Count me in the group that will be sweating pretty hard if we go 1-3 with a home win vs. Georgia. That's snub territory IMO, especially for an SEC team.

Then again, we make the tournament so rarely these days that I'm traumatized and paranoid about our chances.

One win, period.     There's a reason why Florida is a Top 16 national seed, despite not having a traditionally impressive resume;  Arkansas benefits from the same effect,  so our chicken little fans treat it like the grasp on the tournament is tenuous.
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raz1965

Sure that 2 more puts us in, anything less maybe, but for some reason the media is not giving Arkansas the credit they have earned. They praise teams with less quality wins and less road wins to be locks just about but yet say very little good about the Razorbacks. There is bias toward tourney picks if the media had anything to do with it, and I suppose they do have a huge voice. Darn, kinda feel like Trump must feel. Sorry wrong place for that.

hogwood

Quote from: Pistol Pig Maravich on February 24, 2017, 03:26:12 pm
Florida MANHANDLED us at home...can we really expect to beat them at their place?

They no longer have Egbunu. With TT and MK playing well together and our guards stepping it up lately, I think we have a good shot. I wouldn't "expect" it though.

rude1

Quote from: Pistol Pig Maravich on February 24, 2017, 03:26:12 pm
Florida MANHANDLED us at home...can we really expect to beat them at their place?
9 point win = manhandled? It's amazing to me how some of you have inflated that win for Florida. No we never threatened to win the game, but neither did they ever truly put the game away until late. Was down 9 at the half, cut that to 3 to open the second half before falling behind by 16. Manhandled = Ok state, there was quite a difference in how those games played out.

swinesation

Quote from: The Hogfather on February 23, 2017, 06:13:29 pm
22 wins gets us in.

I agree, though I'll admit we'd be sweating if we beat Auburn, then lost to Florida, Georgia, and first game of the SEC tourney. Or if we lost the next three, then won one in the tourney. Either of those scenarios, and we'd also have a lousy seed and wouldn't be feeling too good about ourselves.

People who think 23 wins may not get us in are cra cra!