Not as confident that 23 is the magic number today ...

[Kevin McPherson]

unless 1 of the 2 wins needed to get to 23 is at No. 12 Florida, I'm not sure 23 wins is enough -- it might be, BUT: Hogs are a projected 10-seed today according to the best in the biz, Joe Lunardi (they were projected a 9 on Monday) ... right now, they are effectively 1 (2 spots at best) off the Bubble ... leaves very little margin for error.

A 2-2 finish (say win at Auburn and home v GA, lose at FL and maybe a Bama or Vandy in 1st game of SECT) OR a 2-3 finish (lose 2 of the last 3 reg-season gms then go 1-1 in SECT) and the Hogs would likely be at best PROJECTED Last 4 Byes. Lunardi is 98% accurate in picking the field. I'm sure that 2% fail rate are teams in the Last 4 In / Last 4 Byes projection groups.

In other words, 24 wins -- 3 more -- may be the new "magic number" to LOCK IN an at-large bid. Anything less is Bubble City Baby! Not into being a Negative Nelly or Nervous Nancy, just looking at it objectively.

Some fans wondering why SCar is still projected a 7-seed after the current 1-4 stretch. Well, their RPI is better than Hogs, same conf record, and their 3 best wins -- MI and Syracuse (OOC) and FL (SEC) -- are all better than Hogs' best wins (UT-Arlington & SCar).

Hogs are playing well right now and look to be on the a path to the Dance, but if they win only 2 more games between now and Selection Sunday, it's likely they'll be sweating out a Bubblicious bid.

[Pig in the Pokey]

bunch of crap. Barring an 0-4 finish, we are in.

[ShadowHawg]

unless 1 of the 2 wins needed to get to 23 is at No. 12 Florida, I'm not sure 23 wins is enough -- it might be, BUT: Hogs are a projected 10-seed today according to the best in the biz, Joe Lunardi (they were projected a 9 on Monday) ... right now, they are effectively 1 (2 spots at best) off the Bubble ... leaves very little margin for error.

A 2-2 finish (say win at Auburn and home v GA, lose at FL and maybe a Bama or Vandy in 1st game of SECT) OR a 2-3 finish (lose 2 of the last 3 reg-season gms then go 1-1 in SECT) and the Hogs would likely be at best PROJECTED Last 4 Byes. Lunardi is 98% accurate in picking the field. I'm sure that 2% fail rate are teams in the Last 4 In / Last 4 Byes projection groups.

In other words, 24 wins -- 3 more -- may be the new "magic number" to LOCK IN an at-large bid. Anything less is Bubble City Baby! Not into being a Negative Nelly or Nervous Nancy, just looking at it objectively.

Some fans wondering why SCar is still projected a 7-seed after the current 1-4 stretch. Well, their RPI is better than Hogs, same conf record, and their 3 best wins -- MI and Syracuse (OOC) and FL (SEC) -- are all better than Hogs' best wins (UT-Arlington & SCar).

Hogs are playing well right now and look to be on the a path to the Dance, but if they win only 2 more games between now and Selection Sunday, it's likely they'll be sweating out a Bubblicious bid.

I agree. We won last night and fell from a 9 to a 10 seed.

Got to finish strong.

[SPAL]

No. Beat Georgia and we are in, regardless of the next two.

[parallaxpig]

12 conference wins is the number--that's a three seed in SEC tourney. 

[Raymond Zorback]

Overall record is not a huge factor, look at some of the teams on the bubble.

We're guaranteed to have a winning conference road record.  That's a much bigger factor than win total. 

[Razorback de Nosferatu]

I agree. We won last night and fell from a 9 to a 10 seed.

Got to finish strong.

We apparently fell from a nine to a ten sometime Tuesday.  We were a ten going into last night's game; hopefully Lunardi will get around to factoring in last night and give the Hogs a bump.

Whatever the technical reasons, it's a little irritating that SC is holding steady as a 7 when they've literally chalked up one win in the last three or so weeks, while Arkansas is dropping spots amidst a four-game win streak.

[passinghog]

if it came down to being a 9 or 10, I'd rather be the 10

[Pork Twain]

If we continue to play like we have the last three games, we will get in just because we are actually looking like a worthy team and one that could get hot.

[SPAL]

You're over thinking it.

[Kevin McPherson]

No. Beat Georgia and we are in, regardless of the next two.

But then there's the SECT. I highly doubt a 1-3 finish results in anything but a 1-seed in the NIT. My speculation and opinion, of course, but Hogs need at least 2 more wins just to be on the Bubble -- which might be enough but still on the Bubble and sweating out Selection Sunday.

3 more wins = lock; 2 more wins if 1 of those is FLA = lock; 2 more wins (say 2-2 or 2-3) that do not include FL is Bubble; anything less than 2 wins most likely means NIT.

3 of next 4 gms are away from home, road Hogs STILL have to do what they've done all year and find a way to scratch out some Ws away from BWA.

[Kevin McPherson]

We apparently fell from a nine to a ten sometime Tuesday.  We were a ten going into last night's game; hopefully Lunardi will get around to factoring in last night and give the Hogs a bump.

Whatever the technical reasons, it's a little irritating that SC is holding steady as a 7 when they've literally chalked up one win in the last three or so weeks, while Arkansas is dropping spots amidst a four-game win streak.

Today's update -- 10-seed -- factors in the TAMU win. Hogs are literally 1 or 2 spots off the bubble today if you believe Lunardi, who is better than everybody at predicting the field.

[Rome26]

unless 1 of the 2 wins needed to get to 23 is at No. 12 Florida, I'm not sure 23 wins is enough -- it might be, BUT: Hogs are a projected 10-seed today according to the best in the biz, Joe Lunardi (they were projected a 9 on Monday) ... right now, they are effectively 1 (2 spots at best) off the Bubble ... leaves very little margin for error.

A 2-2 finish (say win at Auburn and home v GA, lose at FL and maybe a Bama or Vandy in 1st game of SECT) OR a 2-3 finish (lose 2 of the last 3 reg-season gms then go 1-1 in SECT) and the Hogs would likely be at best PROJECTED Last 4 Byes. Lunardi is 98% accurate in picking the field. I'm sure that 2% fail rate are teams in the Last 4 In / Last 4 Byes projection groups.

In other words, 24 wins -- 3 more -- may be the new "magic number" to LOCK IN an at-large bid. Anything less is Bubble City Baby! Not into being a Negative Nelly or Nervous Nancy, just looking at it objectively.

Some fans wondering why SCar is still projected a 7-seed after the current 1-4 stretch. Well, their RPI is better than Hogs, same conf record, and their 3 best wins -- MI and Syracuse (OOC) and FL (SEC) -- are all better than Hogs' best wins (UT-Arlington & SCar).

Hogs are playing well right now and look to be on the a path to the Dance, but if they win only 2 more games between now and Selection Sunday, it's likely they'll be sweating out a Bubblicious bid.

Lunardi may be good at picking who gets in, but he is off on the seeding IMO. Most have us at 9 which give us a little more breathing room. 23  wins is a lock

[Kevin McPherson]

You're over thinking it.

Not really. The math gets easier with only a handful of games left. The only thing that could help a poor Hog finish would be most of the other Bubble tms doing worse. Problem is, most of those tms play in better leagues, so their losses are worth mroe than Ls in SEC. A Hog loss at FL won't hurt RPI, but it guarantees Hogs' best resume win is at a struggling SCar team ... that could be a deciding Bubble factor if the Hogs go 2-2 or 2-3 the rest of the way.

[poloprince]

I disagree 23 wins and the Hogs are a lock even with a loss to Florida.

[hvsupastar]

Run the Table!

[Rome26]

Today's update -- 10-seed -- factors in the TAMU win. Hogs are literally 1 or 2 spots off the bubble today if you believe Lunardi, who is better than everybody at predicting the field.

Not according to Bracket Matrix, Lunardi ranks 22nd of all bracketologist.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[raz1965]

I have no doubt that 2 out of the next 3 and we are in. If you compare the records of the last 8 or 10 teams in the field there is no way you leave Arkansas out. Razorbacks have 10 top 100 wins as of now, and add in the road record and the few top 50 wins, if they were left out I cry foul.

[ShadowHawg]

Not according to Bracket Matrix, Lunardi ranks 22nd of all bracketologist.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

This weighs getting the seeds right equally as getting the field correct. So using Lunardi as a reliable source to see if you make the field or are left out is not bad at all.

[Kevin McPherson]

I disagree 23 wins and the Hogs are lock even with a loss to Florida.

Yeah, I just don't think 2 more wins locks them in (again, unless FL is 1 of those 2). It might be enough to still get in, but they'll be on the bubble and possibly vulnerable to upsets in conference tourneys and other Bubble tms rising up in conf tourneys. 3 wins locks it down. I'm repeating myself at this point, and I respect opinions to the contrary, and if they keep winning it becomes a moot point.

[Kevin McPherson]

Not according to Bracket Matrix, Lunardi ranks 22nd of all bracketologist.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Lunardi's not the best at seeding, but predicting the field he's awesome. If you're on the Bubble in his projections, you fall into that 2% range that he misses. Hogs are very close to the Bubble still and a .500 or worse finish puts them squarely on it on Selection Sunday. They very well could still get in, but they won't be a lock going into it.

That's my point -- magic number to be a LOCK might be 24 instad of 23, not that 23 isn't good enough to make the Dance.

[BannerMountainMan]

unless 1 of the 2 wins needed to get to 23 is at No. 12 Florida, I'm not sure 23 wins is enough -- it might be, BUT: Hogs are a projected 10-seed today according to the best in the biz, Joe Lunardi (they were projected a 9 on Monday) ... right now, they are effectively 1 (2 spots at best) off the Bubble ... leaves very little margin for error.

A 2-2 finish (say win at Auburn and home v GA, lose at FL and maybe a Bama or Vandy in 1st game of SECT) OR a 2-3 finish (lose 2 of the last 3 reg-season gms then go 1-1 in SECT) and the Hogs would likely be at best PROJECTED Last 4 Byes. Lunardi is 98% accurate in picking the field. I'm sure that 2% fail rate are teams in the Last 4 In / Last 4 Byes projection groups.

In other words, 24 wins -- 3 more -- may be the new "magic number" to LOCK IN an at-large bid. Anything less is Bubble City Baby! Not into being a Negative Nelly or Nervous Nancy, just looking at it objectively.

Some fans wondering why SCar is still projected a 7-seed after the current 1-4 stretch. Well, their RPI is better than Hogs, same conf record, and their 3 best wins -- MI and Syracuse (OOC) and FL (SEC) -- are all better than Hogs' best wins (UT-Arlington & SCar).

Hogs are playing well right now and look to be on the a path to the Dance, but if they win only 2 more games between now and Selection Sunday, it's likely they'll be sweating out a Bubblicious bid.

dude Tennessee was 15-12 and part of the last 4 in..I think we are fine, don't give us all that crap

[lynbug]

It's what EVERY TEAM does these last few games.  Very little margin for error.  And I still say that crazy conference tournament results will bump a few teams out.  It seems to happen every year.  I just hope the Hogs are the bumpor....not the bumpee.

[Hawg Red]

dude Tennessee was 15-12 and part of the last 4 in..I think we are fine, don't give us all that crap

bunch of crap. Barring an 0-4 finish, we are in.

What is y'all's problem? It's amazing how quickly some of you get indignant about things.

[gmarv]

Isn,t there a place that gives % for wins getting in the tourney and 23 wins get in 98% of the time.I like our odds if we can get to 23.

[Kevin McPherson]

It's what EVERY TEAM does these last few games.  Very little margin for error.  And I still say that crazy conference tournament results will bump a few teams out.  It seems to happen every year.  I just hope the Hogs are the bumpor....not the bumpee.

Yep. Hogs have two 4-game win streaks since the beginning of SEC play, and they're 9-3 in last 12 games. If they manage anything above .500 the rest of the way, they're a LOCK! But that means 3 more wins and 24 overall. Anything .500 or worse, and they are a Bubble team (which means NOT a lock ... doesn't mean they won't get in, just means it relies so much on what you said -- what other teams do these last few games).

[NuttinItUp]

How do we win and drop a spot?

[ShadowHawg]

How do we win and drop a spot?

RPI

[Kevin McPherson]

Overall record is not a huge factor, look at some of the teams on the bubble.

We're guaranteed to have a winning conference road record.  That's a much bigger factor than win total.

Very good point. Hogs are 5-2 now on the road, 6-4 overall away from home. This is really the best part of their NCAAT resume, definitely a big part of their path in.

[Kevin McPherson]

How do we win and drop a spot?

It's not just about what Hogs do, its what other teams are doing. RPI won't move much with home wins against tms like Ole Miss and TAMU. Road win at Auburn will help more, but other tms in better leagues will have more opportunities for big-RPI-moving wins.

[raz1965]

If we hit the 23 win mark, I have no worries, hope they win out but a 10 or 11 seed is just as good or better than a 8/9.

[riccoar]

I see us finishing as the 4 seed in the SEC, IF we go 2-1 over these last 3 games.  Doubt Bama wins all 4, but don't see SC dropping another. 

[HOGINTENNESSEE]

We are in with 23. 22 probably requires a NCAAt win.

You can't forget playing Auburn, FL and UGA the last 3 games will improve out SOS . And any win against the 3 will help the RPI and a single loss will not hurt that much

[Kevin McPherson]

I see us finishing as the 4 seed in the SEC, IF we go 2-1 over these last 3 games.  Doubt Bama wins all 4, but don't see SC dropping another.

Yeah, I think Hogs are in great shape for a top 4 seed / bye into Friday quartefinals. Go 2-1 to finish regular season, and even if they lose on Friday at SECT (means a 2-2 finish), as long as its not a bad loss (Mizzou, LSU, MSST), they probably survive the Bubble scare and get in at 23-10.

But any combo of 3 wins from here on out, and I think they are a lock regardless of what other teams around the country do.

[NuttinItUp]

It's not just about what Hogs do, its what other teams are doing. RPI won't move much with home wins against tms like Ole Miss and TAMU. Road win at Auburn will help more, but other tms in better leagues will have more opportunities for big-RPI-moving wins.

RPI needs to die.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/

[hawginbigd1]

But then there's the SECT. I highly doubt a 1-3 finish results in anything but a 1-seed in the NIT. My speculation and opinion, of course, but Hogs need at least 2 more wins just to be on the Bubble -- which might be enough but still on the Bubble and sweating out Selection Sunday.

3 more wins = lock; 2 more wins if 1 of those is FLA = lock; 2 more wins (say 2-2 or 2-3) that do not include FL is Bubble; anything less than 2 wins most likely means NIT.

3 of next 4 gms are away from home, road Hogs STILL have to do what they've done all year and find a way to scratch out some Ws away from BWA.

Sorry I disagree and would put a couple Hundo's on it, 23 and we are in and not even close to last 4 in. What we have that many are not thinking about: we do not have a bad loss possibility most likely, I mean I guess its possible we could lose to LSU on a neutral court in our first game, but that would be the absolute worst possibility.

[TexasRazorback]

The SEC is perceived to be one of the weakest conferences in basketball. The hogs regardless of record at this point are on the bubble, win and we are in. If we dropped two games in the final two weeks and go 1 and done in the tourney we are in the NIT most likely. The only way we can guarantee ourselves to be in the tourney is win the SEC

[colbs]

Did anyone see the blind resumes during last night's broadcast?  It was Arkansas and Wichita St.  Arkansas was better in every category except number of wins.  Arkansas had like 9 top 100 wins while Wichita had a losing record vs top 100 teams.  Wichita St was projected a 7 seed while Arkansas was projected a 10 seed. 

[HF#1]

Nonsense. This team is in. We may fall to a play in game but that is worst case scenario.

[DeltaBoy]

unless 1 of the 2 wins needed to get to 23 is at No. 12 Florida, I'm not sure 23 wins is enough -- it might be, BUT: Hogs are a projected 10-seed today according to the best in the biz, Joe Lunardi (they were projected a 9 on Monday) ... right now, they are effectively 1 (2 spots at best) off the Bubble ... leaves very little margin for error.

A 2-2 finish (say win at Auburn and home v GA, lose at FL and maybe a Bama or Vandy in 1st game of SECT) OR a 2-3 finish (lose 2 of the last 3 reg-season gms then go 1-1 in SECT) and the Hogs would likely be at best PROJECTED Last 4 Byes. Lunardi is 98% accurate in picking the field. I'm sure that 2% fail rate are teams in the Last 4 In / Last 4 Byes projection groups.

In other words, 24 wins -- 3 more -- may be the new "magic number" to LOCK IN an at-large bid. Anything less is Bubble City Baby! Not into being a Negative Nelly or Nervous Nancy, just looking at it objectively.

Some fans wondering why SCar is still projected a 7-seed after the current 1-4 stretch. Well, their RPI is better than Hogs, same conf record, and their 3 best wins -- MI and Syracuse (OOC) and FL (SEC) -- are all better than Hogs' best wins (UT-Arlington & SCar).

Hogs are playing well right now and look to be on the a path to the Dance, but if they win only 2 more games between now and Selection Sunday, it's likely they'll be sweating out a Bubblicious bid.

         

[Rawker]

One has to start scrambling for scenarios if the Hogs lose against AUB (especially AUB) or GA, but if they win those 2, they're in.  Forget Lunardi for a moment and see yourself as a committee member LOOKING AT BAD LOSSES.  We already have the super crappy one in MIZZ, and if AUB was added to that, it would be a serious situation.  FLA is absolutely the best team we have played and will play in terms of RPI, so in my opinion it's almost an exhibition game compared to AUB and GA.  Given the fact that (1) there's a 25-spot disadvantage in RPI against FLA, (2) we're playing them at home, and (3) we have already satisfied a hypothetical road-success threshold, the committee will glance right over a loss @FLA.  However, they will stare mightily at a loss against AUB while also pondering a home loss vs GA.  Now, if the Hogs do indeed lose @AUB, that obviously changes the importance of the FLA game; it goes from "just do your best to see how you've improved" to "you better win this if you want to be in that bracket."  In other words, the Hogs have to pour their guts out against AUB and GA, because if there is one thing that has remained a constant since the beginning of competitive sports, it's that at the end of any season, if an under-achieving team can spoil a season with one game, 75% of the time they will.

[ShadowHawg]

RPI needs to die.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/

Great read. Thanks for the link.

I just wish the NCAA would look at what they were doing while they killed interest in the game the last 15 years, and do the opposite.

[Rome26]

Lunardi's not the best at seeding, but predicting the field he's awesome. If you're on the Bubble in his projections, you fall into that 2% range that he misses. Hogs are very close to the Bubble still and a .500 or worse finish puts them squarely on it on Selection Sunday. They very well could still get in, but they won't be a lock going into it.

That's my point -- magic number to be a LOCK might be 24 instad of 23, not that 23 isn't good enough to make the Dance.

I agree with this but disagree with where he has us seeded right now. I think we are a legit 9 seed which gives us enough wiggle room to get in with 23 wins. If I thought Lunardi's 10 seed projection was accurate, then I would agree with your assessment.

[Youngsta71701]

You're over thinking it.

This^^^^^ If we beat Auburn on the road, lose to Florida, and beat Georgia at home we are definitely in. If we lose to Auburn and Florida on the road and beat Georgia at home I still think we're in. If we lose to Auburn on the road, beat Florida on the road, and beat Georgia we are definitely in. We need to take care of that home game for sure though. The only way I see us being in trouble is if we lose all three.

The best thing to do is just win then you want have to worry about any of it.

[Razorback de Nosferatu]

Did anyone see the blind resumes during last night's broadcast?  It was Arkansas and Wichita St.  Arkansas was better in every category except number of wins.  Arkansas had like 9 top 100 wins while Wichita had a losing record vs top 100 teams.  Wichita St was projected a 7 seed while Arkansas was projected a 10 seed.

This is what I was saying earlier.  The Hogs were a 10 seed before last night ever happened, and the bracket this morning shows the Hogs went DOWN to a 10.

I don't think the bracket being displayed on ESPN's website factors in last night's game, despite being "updated on 2/23."  We did not DROP to a 10 after last night's game, as the bracket states; we were a ten before the game ever happened.

[Biggus Piggus]

Just don't lose the last two games + we are fine. Lose to Georgia and then again in the SECT, we are toast.

[Adam Stokes]

How do we win and drop a spot?

We were the last 9 seed, and VT was a 10 seed but had a better win against Clemson while we only had A&M. We dropped from 36 on the S-curve to 37 and people are freaking out.

I'll call it right now. 23 wins and we are in. That'll keep our RPI in the mid 30's. We'll be safe. Though the 23 will be better if we go 2-1 and lose a game in the SECT versus going 1-2, getting the 5 seed, and beating a cupcake and losing to Bama in the quarters.

[Razorback de Nosferatu]

We were the last 9 seed, and VT was a 10 seed but had a better win against Clemson while we only had A&M. W dropped from 36 on the S-curve to 37 and people are freaking out.

I'll call it right now. 23 wins and we are in. That'll keep our RPI in the mid 30's. We'll be safe.

Ultimately, this is irrelevant, but I'm curious: WHEN did the Hogs actually drop to a 10 seed, then?  During the Wichita State blind resume during the game last night, the Hogs were already being shown as a 10, so the W against A&M couldn't have had anything to do with it.

[cardsNhogs]

bunch of crap. Barring an 0-4 finish, we are in.

wrong

[King Kong]

dude Tennessee was 15-12 and part of the last 4 in..I think we are fine, don't give us all that crap

UT's SOS is like 2. Ours is above 50. (Will probably be top 50 after playing FL and UGA)