Projected SEC Tournament Bracket

[Adam Stokes]

Here are the current SEC Standings along with who they will be playing in their last two games.

1  16-0  Florida @SC, vs UK
2  11-5 Kentucky   vs Bama, @Florida
3  10-6 Georgia vs MSU, @LSU     
4   9-7 Arkansas vs OM @ Bama
5   9-7 Tennessee @Auburn vs Mizzou   
6   8-8 Missouri vs A&M, @Mizzou
7   8-8 LSU   @Vandy, vs UGA
8   8-8 Texas A&M @Mizzou, vs Auburn
9   8-8 Ole Miss @Ark, vs Vandy
10  7-9 Vanderbilt vs LSU, @OM
11  6-10 Alabama   @UK, vs Ark
12  5-11 Auburn vs Tenn, @A&M
13  4-12 South Carolina vs Florida, @MSU
14  3-13 Mississippi State @UGA, vs SC

Here's the essence of how tiebreakers work for the SEC.  First it's head to head, then whichever team performed better against the 1 seed, 2 seed, etc.  For 3+ tiebreakers, it is best head-to-head % among tied teams, and rinse and repeat with the record against 1 seed down.

  Really the only coin flips I had to make were us winning @Bama, LSU winning @Vandy, and Tennesse winning vs Mizzou.  So, just putting a good guess at who will win the games above, I think things will finish up like this.

1  18-0  Florida
2  12-6 Kentucky
3  11-7 Tennessee (2-0 against Ark & UGA)
4  11-7 Arkansas (better record vs #2 UK)
5  11-7 Georgia
6  10-8 LSU
7  9-9 Texas A&M (2-0 against Tenn)
8  9-9 Missouri (2-0 vs Ark)
9  9-9 Ole Miss
10 7-11 Vanderbilt
11 6-12 Alabama
12 5-13 Auburn
13 4-14 Mississippi State (better head to head)
14 4-14 South Carolina

I've included a bracket at the bottom of how the tourney would look. 

I don't mind the set-up.  I don't really want to play Uga again but that can be managed.  Also either OM or Mizzou has the chance of upsetting Florida (small chance obviously, but it could happen.)  If UGA got upset and we then lost our opening round game we would probably be put on the wrong side of the bubble.  I'm not sure how I'd feel about playing Florida in the semi's.  If the bubble is looking good for us I'd be fine, because losing to them wouldn't really hurt.  However if we were still in most last 4 in's as we currently are, it would hurt losing.

Thoughts?

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[onebadrubi]

We shouldn't hold the tiebreaker between us and Tenner should we?

Ha!  I shall return then

[Adam Stokes]

Sorry for the original miss-post, got it fixed now.

[Breems]

Thanks for putting that together.

As long as we can avoid LSU, I believe we have a good chance against anyone (Florida being the obvious exception).

[HogFanatic]

Thanks for putting that together.

As long as we can avoid LSU, I believe we have a good chance against anyone (Florida being the obvious exception).

If that ends up being the way the bracket looks, I doubt we will see LSU. They'd need to get by Tenner and then KY. Tenner matches up with them better than we do I think.

I would actually like to see Arkansas get another crack at Florida at this point. Good preparation for the NCAAT

[Breems]

If that ends up being the way the bracket looks, I doubt we will see LSU. They'd need to get by Tenner and then KY. Tenner matches up with them better than we do I think.

I would actually like to see Arkansas get another crack at Florida at this point. Good preparation for the NCAAT

I would be fine with it given we would have to be in the semifinals to do so. They beat us in Bud Walton without their leading scorer, though, so I'm not too confident we could hang with them on a neutral floor. They're just that good.

[Adam Stokes]

Something else worth noting, we are very likely to have the best record of the old SEC West.  I guess Anderson won't get a ring, but nice to think about.

[HogFanatic]

I would be fine with it given we would have to be in the semifinals to do so. They beat us in Bud Walton without their leading scorer, though, so I'm not too confident we could hang with them on a neutral floor. They're just that good.

I would still like to see it. Arkansas is playing much better ball than they were when Florida beat them. And given the fact that both Kentucky games were as close as they were, it seems to me that Arkansas is playing equally well no matter where the game is being played. I think Arkansas closes out these last two conference wins with two solid wins. Lots of momentum headed into post season play.

I think they would give Florida a good run on a neutral court right now.

[Hooch]

Here is an article discussing the tourney with predictions from the Kansas City paper. 
http://www.kansascity.com/2014/03/03/4862280/sec-basketball-standings-tight.html

[tophawg19]

i would actually rather be the 5 seed and get the extra game . 1 more sure win to get us over the hump before facing Georgia . i think 23 gets us in but 24 might add a bit of comfort

[Dirty]

i would actually rather be the 5 seed and get the extra game . 1 more sure win to get us over the hump before facing Georgia . i think 23 gets us in but 24 might add a bit of comfort

Just keep winning and let everything else shake its way out!

[onebadrubi]

i would actually rather be the 5 seed and get the extra game . 1 more sure win to get us over the hump before facing Georgia . i think 23 gets us in but 24 might add a bit of comfort

I think 23 locks us in with the UK and Georgia Win.  That's beating two top 100
RPI team, one of those on the road, and then 1 SECT win, or two secT wins if we drop a game in the last two reg season games.  24 at this point puts well into a top 8-9'seed in the NCAa, which some on here are mentioning are the worse seeds to have.

[Adam Stokes]

If I had to guess I'd say 23 wins = 11/12 seed, 24 = 9/10, 25 = 7/8, and winning out 4/5. 

Again, I feel confident that 23 would be enough, but we'll still be close to the bubble with just 23.  Lots of opportunities for teams to make big jumps in conference tourneys, and there always seems to be a team or two that takes away an at-large by winning their conference.

[Lake City Hog]

Top, you stole my line!! I'm like you get the 5 seed and play the winner of 2 pretty bad teams. Get rid of the opening game jitters, get a feel for the court and more importantly get 1 more win on the record.

If we then step up and beat Georgia to get to the semi's we are in great shape.

[b_stackhouse]

If it means no difference in our record, I would much rather be the 5 than the 4. Although, if we were to happen to lose that first game against a 12/13 seed, that would not be good at all.

[Marshfieldhog]

Whatever happened to the days that 20 wins and you were in? Anyway, 23 wins and we are going to the NCAA minus mayhem in the conf tourneys. I even think 22 wins and we might sneak in the back door.

[PORKULATOR]

We shouldn't hold the tiebreaker between us and Tenner should we?

Ha!  I shall return then

Depends on if they base the tie breaker on overall record or head to head.

[Fayettechill14]

LOVE that bracket setup as far as the bubble goes.

1. Mizzou plays their way straight out of the tournament discussion with a quarterfinal matchup with #1 Florida.

2. We're on the opposite side of the bracket from Tennessee, so we can't give them a claim to jump us (if they were to beat us). They play straight into a matchup with Kentucky after they kill off LSU.

3. Georgia is arguably the weakest of the top 4 seeds. I think we beat them. Losing to #1 Florida won't hurt our RPI and we'll already be in at that point.

[Breems]

The @Alabama game is going to be the most important Arkansas Razorback game in years. Our tournament bid lies restless within Tuscaloosa. We have to go in and take it.

[hawg66]

Nice work by the OP.

And yes, the Bama game is huge.  One more road win punches the Hogs' ticket to the dance, IMO.  They can still make the tourney with a loss at Tuscaloosa, but that's the surest way, other than winning the SEC tourney.

[Rome26]

IMO, we wont need a tourney win if we beat Ole Miss and Bama.

[JayBell]

LOVE that bracket setup as far as the bubble goes.

1. Mizzou plays their way straight out of the tournament discussion with a quarterfinal matchup with #1 Florida.

2. We're on the opposite side of the bracket from Tennessee, so we can't give them a claim to jump us (if they were to beat us). They play straight into a matchup with Kentucky after they kill off LSU.

3. Georgia is arguably the weakest of the top 4 seeds. I think we beat them. Losing to #1 Florida won't hurt our RPI and we'll already be in at that point.

Great points.  I know everyone thinks the 3 seed would look good, but it would do little for Arkansas' tournament resume.

Ending up as the 4 or 5 seed would line up better for Arkansas, with the 5 seed giving them what should be an extra win.

[opineonswine]

IMO, we wont need a tourney win if we beat Ole Miss and Bama.

Totally agree.

Just keep winning.

[Rome26]

I would be fine with it given we would have to be in the semifinals to do so. They beat us in Bud Walton without their leading scorer, though, so I'm not too confident we could hang with them on a neutral floor. They're just that good.

Prather is a good player but UF has guys that can replace his scoring

UF had Prather during this 3 game stretch

at home vs Auburn and only won by 5
@ Ole Miss that next game and won by 4
@ Vandy and won by 3

Wilbekin is the guy that makes UF go and was the reason they were able to get out of Fayetteville with win.

[onebadrubi]

Prather is a good player but UF has guys that can replace his scoring

UF had Prather during this 3 game stretch

at home vs Auburn and only won by 5
@ Ole Miss that next game and won by 4
@ Vandy and won by 3

Wilbekin is the guy that makes UF go and was the reason they were able to get out of Fayetteville with win.

Exactly!!  We want madden to be our wilbekin next year.  He's a senior that knows how to play the way Donovan ask.  He knows the team, clutch free throw shooter, and has experience. 

I wouldn't be scared of playing Florida anywhere except at Florida right now. 

[Cotton]

Tenn or even LSU with an extra game have the easiest route to the final. Kentucky is a mess right now and I want everybody else to take a shot at florida before we do. That being said, we're the hot team right now which means everything going into tournaments at the end of the season! :razorback:

[AugustaHog]

The biggest positive about playing against UF in our second game would be that we would have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  Any other losses would hurt our resume, but if we drop one to UF we were supposed to.  No big deal.  If we beat UF, we just landed one big ol win and probably secured a 7 seed to boot (assuming we take care of business this wk).

[HogFanatic]

The biggest positive about playing against UF in our second game would be that we would have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  Any other losses would hurt our resume, but if we drop one to UF we were supposed to.  No big deal.  If we beat UF, we just landed one big ol win and probably secured a 7 seed to boot (assuming we take care of business this wk).

Exactly. If we are able to win out and then make it to face Florida in the SECT, we are locked into the NCAAT at that point. Beating Florida would give us a nice seed, while losing would do no harm.

Not only that but I feel Arkansas can actually make a good run at them.

[three hog night]

UF will probably play a Mizzou team that will get into their legs before we play UF. 

[Dr. Starcs]

Can someone update this?

[Nosboar Accubond]

Sure. We just beat the pants off Ole Missy... next

[Adam Stokes]

Can someone update this?

It's actually exactly the same.  There haven't been any games so far that went different than my original projection.  Mizzou was close to losing and shaking it up, but A&M rolled over and took it.

[-Blu]

I haven't had time to check yet, but did last night change anything on here?

[Adam Stokes]

I haven't had time to check yet, but did last night change anything on here?

Nope, there weren't any upsets the past two days so I've been able to predict the outcomes correctly.  If Vandy beats LSU tonight I will have to change it up, and there is a good chance that might happen.

[BR]

Georgia is the 3rd seed right now... Tenn 4th, Hogs 5th if everyone wins out..

SEC Standings
TEAM   CONF   OVERALL
Florida   17-0   28-2
Kentucky   12-5   22-8
Georgia   11-6   17-12
Arkansas   10-7   21-9
Tennessee   10-7   19-11
Missouri   9-8   21-9
LSU   8-8   17-11
Texas A&M   8-9   17-13
Ole Miss   8-9   17-13
Vanderbilt   7-9   15-13
Alabama   6-11   12-18
Auburn   5-12   13-15
South Carolina   4-13   11-19
Mississippi State   3-14   13-17

[zebra]

So what is the three team tiebreaker, if UGA loses, and AR/TN both win this weekend? 

Who gets 3, 4, 5?

[V-town Hog]

So what is the three team tiebreaker, if UGA loses, and AR/TN both win this weekend? 

Who gets 3, 4, 5?

3-Tenn
4-Ark
5-Georgia

IMO the best scenario for us.