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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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gotyacovered

February 13, 2016, 09:22:31 am #9950 Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 09:58:08 am by gotyacovered
Rough night for me... Still like Notre Dame, don't like Irish -1.5 near as much. Probably try and find a parlay I can buy it back to PK or -.5. I am on Washington and Creighton also.

I like the west in the all star game... West is deeper and has more talent. Most importantly...

West=Gregg Popovich
East=Tyronn Lue
You are what you tolerate.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

 

SPAL

Butler -3
Baylor -10
Tamu +2
Michigan +1.5
Stanford +6.5

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on February 13, 2016, 11:25:45 am
Butler -3
Baylor -10
Tamu +2
Michigan +1.5
Stanford +6.5


Why Butler other than home court?  Not questioning your call. College hoops certainly not my forte
Let's make some waves.

yraciv

Playing a bit of college basketball today.
La Salle +16.5
Duke -2
Marquette +1
Gonzaga +6.5
Boise -10

userpick

59-33

Xavier +3.5
Charlotte -11
Montana State -12.5
Elon -2
Colorado State +7

SPAL


SPAL

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on February 13, 2016, 12:04:07 pm

Why Butler other than home court?  Not questioning your call. College hoops certainly not my forte

It is one of those games where one team is needing a resume builder playing at home against a team that is vulnerable in tough road games.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well I'm probably an idiot, but took Xavier +3.5  for two units
Let's make some waves.

userpick


onebadrubi

A very long shot tail from someone that usually is good at these. 

Fritz in the memphis ATP +525 to win. 

DadVader1

This wasn't one of our banner weeks for our bottom lines on this thread, but it's worth celebrating hitting page 200 on my favorite thread on any board.  Thanks for sharing your wisdom and your picks and coaching up folks like me!   

 

gotyacovered

Quote from: DadVader1 on February 14, 2016, 07:55:15 pm
This wasn't one of our banner weeks for our bottom lines on this thread, but it's worth celebrating hitting page 200 on my favorite thread on any board.  Thanks for sharing your wisdom and your picks and coaching up folks like me!   

actually it was an outstanding week, depending of course on who you follow/pay attention too.
You are what you tolerate.

gotyacovered

twitter tidbit of the day... in the all star game there were 139 three pointers taken over the course of 48 minutes, if i do the math right, that is one tre taken every 21 seconds.
You are what you tolerate.

onebadrubi

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 15, 2016, 10:29:45 am
actually it was an outstanding week, depending of course on who you follow/pay attention too.

Being on the road most of the week I didn't see who stroked it this past week?  I know i didn't?  I think I ended the week up 2-3 units.


hogspin12


gotyacovered

Quote from: hogspin12 on February 15, 2016, 12:31:33 pm
Any advice for college basketball tonight?

At an early glance I'm liking the Virginia/NC State Under 129.5 and the KU/OSU Over 137.5... I also can see KU covering the 15, OSU might lay down if the get their teeth kicked in early. I also like virginia.... But, that being said, I don't have any tickets in pocket. caveat emptor.
You are what you tolerate.

onebadrubi

Virginia is a hard team to take a side on. The play a style of basketball that is brutal to watch as well.  They are completely happy winning a game 35-29 and the spread be 10 points. I've played a lot unders on them and + sides this year doing well. I think most of those were posted as well.  That line opened I think around 133 so it's moving

gotyacovered

Quote from: onebadrubi on February 15, 2016, 01:51:37 pm
Virginia is a hard team to take a side on. The play a style of basketball that is brutal to watch as well.  They are completely happy winning a game 35-29 and the spread be 10 points. I've played a lot unders on them and + sides this year doing well. I think most of those were posted as well.  That line opened I think around 133 so it's moving

virginia is a team that wins by execution and they are just now getting their team mojo "right". its at 12/128.5 now. my play on virginia tonight (should i find financial conviction) is about market perception, they should have beaten duke 2/9 (shoulda coulda woulda) but they didnt; there might be some value on the cavs tonight. in the books eyes a loss is a loss, but the duke game (with the right call) goes the other way. if it did go the other way, we would be seeing a bigger number here.

i still dont have a ticket in pocket.

my gut is screaming to take KU.
You are what you tolerate.

onebadrubi

I'm liking over Kansas 137 and NC state +12. 

Also a tail for me tonight is probably going to be the Wisc schools under 168.5

userpick


onebadrubi

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 15, 2016, 02:26:26 pm
virginia is a team that wins by execution and they are just now getting their team mojo "right". its at 12/128.5 now. my play on virginia tonight (should i find financial conviction) is about market perception, they should have beaten duke 2/9 (shoulda coulda woulda) but they didnt; there might be some value on the cavs tonight. in the books eyes a loss is a loss, but the duke game (with the right call) goes the other way. if it did go the other way, we would be seeing a bigger number here.

i still dont have a ticket in pocket.

my gut is screaming to take KU.

Good call. I hope you found that conviction. Lol

gotyacovered

Quote from: onebadrubi on February 15, 2016, 08:08:43 pm
Good call. I hope you found that conviction. Lol

The conviction was there... The opportunity was not. I was waiting around to get the best line--exactly what it did... Then I had to take a trip, long day and the majority of it was spent with no cell service. Bc I'm a wierdo... I chose not to bet KU like instincts were calling for either... All is not lost, much like the cavs getting beat by Duke Saturday, I didn't win, but but it sure feels like it;D
You are what you tolerate.

 

Hawgndaaz


gotyacovered

February 16, 2016, 11:01:00 am #9975 Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 01:57:20 pm by gotyacovered
i have two (make it 3--now 4) on the slate today that caught my eye... Two of them right out of the gate...

mississippi catchin' 10--even in college station(?) double digits in a matchup featuring two teams rated (pomeroy) as closely as they are...? they are back to back in multiple kenpom categories (TO%, 3Pt%, off eff and tempo). on top of that you have a team in a&m that has tumbled down the polls (something like from 5th to 25+ in +/-20 days). Saiz was out for 3 games and they split with no losses 6 points or more (thats a win mentally); he returns and the rebels challenge the gators (losing by 5 as a 9 point dog), then we all remember what they did to the hogs--which happened to be their best half of basketball this year (man--we know how to catch'em)... in short my premise is simple, you have two teams that are very similar on paper (kenpom, in and out of conf records) but they are going two different ways, ole miss is surviving/fighting and a&m is holding on for the ride. give me the 10. i have this ticket in pocket.

s. carolina at mizzou: the south carolina line at 6.5 looks a little skinny... and they have the total set at 144.5--they are expecting some scoring. south carolina has gotten thumped the last two games, i see them bouncing back with a strong win here. they have 4 days off and then face florida, this may be a confidence builder as they have already beaten them (tiger) 81-72 exactly a month ago. in the first matchup wes clark for mizzou had a season high of 26 points (avg 9.8 /game) and south carolina was 3-21 from the 3 point line... on top of that the tigers out shot them 49% to 45% 2 pointers and free throws (69% to 66%) yet the gamecocks still pulled off a 9 point win. south car has a tough time holding onto the ball and are last in conf 3pt % (mizzou aint great either) and never steal the ball--i realize that--but they run a faster tempo than mizzou and both are giving up points at a higher rate then most in conf. i see them answering the call and playing much better than the first matchup, the tricky part, is the late season surge by the tigers... i have not invested at this point.

adding another, over looked it my first time... WV is tuuuuurble on the road... and now they are playing a texas team (MUCH improved) that already beat them at home? and they (WV)have OU on saturday... WV does have the best def in conf, but UT is #2 and kenpom give the sos to the longhorns. need more to pull the trigger, go look at the UT/WVU stat book--the only place texas beat them was on the score board... got out rebounded, shot 38%, 60% FT line, etc. UT only has 2 more road games and with a win here can cruise to a B12 1st round bye. the only thing i HATE about this game, its seems to be a popular pick... may be one of those games where "everybody" is wrong. i pulled the trigger at 2 b/c i think it only gets worse.

Lunch time edit: looking at KState/TCU under... You have a couple conference bottom dwellers in the offense department. Both KSU/TCU play good defense... (in relative terms) Wildcats struggle for wins on the road... I also kinda like TCU in the live dog role here.
You are what you tolerate.

hogspin12

I like the ole miss and South Carolina picks not real sure about the Texas WV game. I also like Purdue -13

userpick


gotyacovered

Quote from: userpick on February 16, 2016, 01:34:50 pm
62-36

Michigan Pk
Akron -7.5

Akron line appears to be on the move, if yer tailin' get it in!

Quote from: hogspin12 on February 16, 2016, 01:05:57 pm
I like the ole miss and South Carolina picks not real sure about the Texas WV game. I also like Purdue -13

I'm showing 11.5 on boilermakers/cats
You are what you tolerate.

hogspin12


onebadrubi

I had Purdue big at -11 bought down from -11.5.  They won by -10 them SOB's

userpick


userpick

Quote from: userpick on February 17, 2016, 03:08:37 pm
63-37


DePaul -2
Georgetown -2
Loyola Chicago +5

The past week has been very slow. We need some momentum.

gotyacovered

Whats up fellas, was covered up yesterday... I was on providence and texas tech last night, wish I woulda got a write up in on TT, I would look a lot smarter than after Monday night ;D

Oh well.

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 16, 2016, 11:01:00 am
i have two (make it 3--now 4) on the slate today that caught my eye... Two of them right out of the gate...

mississippi catchin' 10--even in college station(?) double digits in a matchup featuring two teams rated (pomeroy) as closely as they are...? they are back to back in multiple kenpom categories (TO%, 3Pt%, off eff and tempo). on top of that you have a team in a&m that has tumbled down the polls (something like from 5th to 25+ in +/-20 days). Saiz was out for 3 games and they split with no losses 6 points or more (thats a win mentally); he returns and the rebels challenge the gators (losing by 5 as a 9 point dog), then we all remember what they did to the hogs--which happened to be their best half of basketball this year (man--we know how to catch'em)... in short my premise is simple, you have two teams that are very similar on paper (kenpom, in and out of conf records) but they are going two different ways, ole miss is surviving/fighting and a&m is holding on for the ride. give me the 10. i have this ticket in pocket. 

This was one of my fav games in the last several weeks, bad deal. The aggies starters scored 44 points in 139 floor minutes going 17-42. The rebels starting five scored 44 points in 144 floor minutes, shooting 17-52. It was a battle of who was 'worse-er' ;D

Mississippi was 29-96 total and only scored 2 points over the last fine mins.

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 16, 2016, 11:01:00 am
s. carolina at mizzou: the south carolina line at 6.5 looks a little skinny... and they have the total set at 144.5--they are expecting some scoring. south carolina has gotten thumped the last two games, i see them bouncing back with a strong win here. they have 4 days off and then face florida, this may be a confidence builder as they have already beaten them (tiger) 81-72 exactly a month ago. in the first matchup wes clark for mizzou had a season high of 26 points (avg 9.8 /game) and south carolina was 3-21 from the 3 point line... on top of that the tigers out shot them 49% to 45% 2 pointers and free throws (69% to 66%) yet the gamecocks still pulled off a 9 point win. south car has a tough time holding onto the ball and are last in conf 3pt % (mizzou aint great either) and never steal the ball--i realize that--but they run a faster tempo than mizzou and both are giving up points at a higher rate then most in conf. i see them answering the call and playing much better than the first matchup, the tricky part, is the late season surge by the tigers... i have not invested at this point. 

Did not place a ticket on this one, shortly after posting this the line jumped to 7.5, and as noted above it was a LITTLE skinny. Not sure if I would have pulled the trigger at 6.5 or not—depends when, if I saw it at 6.5 and had not already put the TCU and under bet in, I probably would have... either way, line move saved me a loser.

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 16, 2016, 11:01:00 am
adding another, over looked it my first time... WV is tuuuuurble on the road... and now they are playing a texas team (MUCH improved) that already beat them at home? and they (WV)have OU on saturday... WV does have the best def in conf, but UT is #2 and kenpom give the sos to the longhorns. need more to pull the trigger, go look at the UT/WVU stat book--the only place texas beat them was on the score board... got out rebounded, shot 38%, 60% FT line, etc. UT only has 2 more road games and with a win here can cruise to a B12 1st round bye. the only thing i HATE about this game, its seems to be a popular pick... may be one of those games where "everybody" is wrong. i pulled the trigger at 2 b/c i think it only gets worse.

not a lot to say on this one... I was happy as a lark with just over a min to go at UT leading 75-66, then WV managed to put up 22 points! Something I will remember going forward. They may play terrible def, but they didn't lay down

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 16, 2016, 11:01:00 am
Lunch time edit: looking at KState/TCU under... You have a couple conference bottom dwellers in the offense department. Both KSU/TCU play good defense... (in relative terms) Wildcats struggle for wins on the road... I also kinda like TCU in the live dog role here.

Wiffed on TCU... and the under was easy, live and learn.
You are what you tolerate.

gotyacovered

February 18, 2016, 01:30:08 pm #9984 Last Edit: February 18, 2016, 04:24:04 pm by gotyacovered
only seeing one game tonight that is due a wager... maybe two.

looking at uconn... uconn has only losses (at home) are temple and cincy (who they get to play again)... both of which play better def than SMU (per kenpom); and they rely more on offense... which generally doesnt travel as well as defense. uconn's d is numero uno in conf... so in short you have a defense that is really good, playing a good D on the road and a uconn squad that needs the win more... they win tonight they remain in the top 4 and will get a first round bye for their conf champ... SMU on the other hand has already lost to temple so they are pretty much doomed to win the regular season, uconn needs it more. most likely it'll come down to the wire and you have the huskies shooting 82% (#1 in conf on kenpom) from the charity stripe--thats a 10 (percentage) point advantage.

i believe there is a wager on the kentucky game tonight... tenn is coming back to face off with a team they beat 84-77. this is after kentucky had a 34-14 lead in the 1st last time... hard to explain why that happened, maybe it is the experience level of the wlidcats. dunno. they play a&m saturday afternoon so you may see an early throat punch by calipari so he can get some rest late. on top of that:

tenn vs mizzou... the vols were losing 38-27 at half
tenn vs hogs... the vols were losing 36-23 at half
tenn vs vandy the vols were losing 44-23 at half

that is the first half results 3 out of their last 4 games. that is 45 points.

like i said earlier, not sure if it the under at 70.5 or kentucky -9.5... but i feel for sure its one of em... i would lean to the side.
You are what you tolerate.

userpick


gotyacovered

Having troubles making any headway this week...

Had one catch my eye today... Lookin at Boston. Jazz are off that makeup game vs Washington leading to short practice time coming back AND leading to a real long (travel) back to back scheduling spot--think Monday/Tuesday at work after being on a two week vacation. Then on court performance was awful... Just can't see them challenging Boston, who likes to steal the ball and playing a Utah club that likes to give it up--esp as of late.
You are what you tolerate.

userpick


userpick

Sorry I'm late today. I had 6 today. 3 are in progress.

South Carolina -2.5
Towson -5.5
West Carolina -3
Illinois state +5.5
San Francisco -1.5
ULM +7


userpick


Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Pens -1.5 40 to win 100.00
Pens Sabres over 5 / 140.00 to win 100.00

Black hawks -1.5 40 to win 100.00
Blackhawks wild over 5 / 125.00 to win 100.00

Michigan +9.5 1 unit hoops
Let's make some waves.

Spikes

So yesterday I bet every home dog spread in NCAA.  Ended up being 25 bets in total.  Finished with 15 wins, 9 L and 1 push.  Have always been told to bet home dogs in NCAA BBall.  I will do it again today.

Only did $20 per bet, but did make some profit. Anyone else did this for a period of time?
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Spikes

1.     Even   [836]   MISSOURI ST LOYOLA CHICAGO @ MISSOURI ST , College Basketball     2/21/2016 4:00 PM
2.     - 115   [842]   SAN JOSE STATE + 9 SAN DIEGO STATE @ SAN JOSE STATE , College Basketball     2/21/2016 4:00 PM
3.     - 110   [844]   INDIANA STATE + 12 ½ WICHITA STATE @ INDIANA STATE , College Basketball     2/21/2016 4:00 PM
4.     - 110   [846]   ILLINOIS CHICAGO + 15 OAKLAND @ ILLINOIS CHICAGO , College Basketball     2/21/2016 5:00 PM
5.     - 110   [856]   WASHINGTON STATE + 10 CALIFORNIA @ WASHINGTON STATE , College Basketball     2/21/2016 8:30 PM

Mizz State is +1 , but ml is even so took that for less juice in case for a L
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

NY Rangers -1.5 60.00 to win 100.00
Over 5 same game 130.00 to win 100.00
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Quote from: Spikes on February 21, 2016, 02:14:21 pm
So yesterday I bet every home dog spread in NCAA.  Ended up being 25 bets in total.  Finished with 15 wins, 9 L and 1 push.  Have always been told to bet home dogs in NCAA BBall.  I will do it again today.

Only did $20 per bet, but did make some profit. Anyone else did this for a period of time?

I haven't bet it but have been running similar numbers for NCAAF, and it seems to vary a bit from season to season.  I didn't have complete season data for all of the last three seasons, but Road Favorites hit at 54%, 49%, and 57% over the last three years.  Others didn't fare so well.   

Spikes

Thanks DadVadar1

Yea yesterday was very kind... May only do it when there are a lot of games on the board vs not many like Sunday.

You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

gotyacovered

Quote from: Spikes on February 21, 2016, 02:14:21 pm
So yesterday I bet every home dog spread in NCAA.  Ended up being 25 bets in total.  Finished with 15 wins, 9 L and 1 push.  Have always been told to bet home dogs in NCAA BBall.  I will do it again today.

Only did $20 per bet, but did make some profit. Anyone else did this for a period of time?

Quote from: DadVader1 on February 21, 2016, 08:37:18 pm
I haven't bet it but have been running similar numbers for NCAAF, and it seems to vary a bit from season to season.  I didn't have complete season data for all of the last three seasons, but Road Favorites hit at 54%, 49%, and 57% over the last three years.  Others didn't fare so well.   

i cant belive you fellas can run that kind of volume and turn a profit.
You are what you tolerate.

gotyacovered

rough week for me... not sure if the golden state -3.5 vs the clips or the Kentucky game was the low point... or the push i got out of Indiana... but it 'wasnt no fun'.

at 1:40 it was golden st 115-99 - LOSS
at 5:00 it was 70-55 indiana - PUSH
the tech on kentucky... man... smh. - LOSS (i guess he is suppose to call that by the letter of the law, but some discretion on that situation goes a long way. i saw this on twitter and thought it was very well put: "the kid was not protesting anything, just being a little exuberant.")

those three games ended up really hurting. todays card sucks, not seeing much, lots of injuries in the NBA
You are what you tolerate.

Spikes

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 22, 2016, 11:25:32 am
rough week for me... not sure if the golden state -3.5 vs the clips or the Kentucky game was the low point... or the push i got out of Indiana... but it 'wasnt no fun'.

at 1:40 it was golden st 115-99 - LOSS
at 5:00 it was 70-55 indiana - PUSH
the tech on kentucky... man... smh. - LOSS (i guess he is suppose to call that by the letter of the law, but some discretion on that situation goes a long way. i saw this on twitter and thought it was very well put: "the kid was not protesting anything, just being a little exuberant.")

those three games ended up really hurting. todays card sucks, not seeing much, lots of injuries in the NBA

Saturday ended up winning $54,yesterday lost $62.  Will do it again when there is massive amount of games and see. Will stay away from Sundays moving forward due to lower volume of games and line makers doing a better job.  May look in tne NBA as well. Will keep everyone updated. 
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

DadVader1

Quote from: gotyacovered on February 22, 2016, 11:23:12 am
i cant belive you fellas can run that kind of volume and turn a profit.

Yeah, I don't plan on making that many plays, but it's a decent first filter to use as I try to find a few combinations of filters that will provide around 100 picks over a season and that have performed at or around 60% over multiple seasons.