Bunt to advance vs hitting away.

[TexHog188]

I love the game threads, so for those who do the pbp, thanks. I've noticed recently that we don't seem to advance players with the bunt like we did in seasons past. Maybe I'm wrong, but a bunt used to be dang near automatic with a runner at first or second with no outs. This season it seems like we are hitting away or even opting for the hit and run more. Is this a change in strategy/philosophy or am I just not paying attention? 

[ucahogfan]

That was a huge part of our strategy between 2011 and 2014 when they changed the bats to the BBCOR and the balls still had raised seams.  It almost completely eliminated the long ball from college baseball.  We have already hit more HRs so far this season than in any of those four years.  In order to get runs, small ball became a huge part of our offense.

In 2015, they changed the ball to the minor league ball which has lower seams and caused the ball to travel further which brought the long ball back into the game along with more offense.  We have not sac bunted as much in the last four seasons due to having the ability to drive the ball out of the park.  Why give up an out early in the game when just about everyone can hit it 400+ feet at any given time?  Martin is about the only one DVH has sac bunted with early in games in situations like that due to his speed to where he can beat out the throw.

[Knot2brite]

It also depends on what you have batting behind the runner. If the guy behind the runner is struggling to see a particular pitcher then you might use that option. But if the guy behind the runner is tearing it up or has been squaring the ball up pretty good against that pitcher then you let him swing. Teams that make consistent soild contact can get in trouble if they play small ball because you don't want to take the bat out of a hitters hand. Teams that are struggling to hit or teams that aren't solid in bunt defense are they situations you should consider bunting. Modern thinking says swing away but there is a time and a place for sacrifice bunting in today's game

[SPAL]

I think it's situational....I'm probably not playing small ball from inning 1-5 unless I'm squeezing a run home. Inning 6-8, I will bunt only to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd to allow a sac fly to score in. Inning 9, I'll bunt a guy into scoring pos.

I like elements of small ball, but I don't like it exclusively

[Knot2brite]

I think it's situational....I'm probably not playing small ball from inning 1-5 unless I'm squeezing a run home. Inning 6-8, I will bunt only to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd to allow a sac fly to score in. Inning 9, I'll bunt a guy into scoring pos.

I like elements of small ball, but I don't like it exclusively

See I would drop a bunt early in the game in the right situation to leave that little doubt in the mind of a coach throughout the game. That way I can partially dictate to him how his team plays defense

[SPAL]

See I would drop a bunt early in the game in the right situation to leave that little doubt in the mind of a coach throughout the game. That way I can partially dictate to him how his team plays defense

Hmm. That's a good point. I do like putting pressure on teams early. I want to push that first run across and jump on a team. Teams play differently playing from behind.

In the right situation, I might play small early.

[rolyat_2008]

We have some troubles executing the bunt and many times it will let pitcher relax after giving him an easy out especially one that is struggling or in trouble and feeling that pressure.

[Hawgvillain]

See I would drop a bunt early in the game in the right situation to leave that little doubt in the mind of a coach throughout the game. That way I can partially dictate to him how his team plays defense

It has been statistically proven (at the MLB level) that bunting to move runners actually results in fewer runs for the offense. Though the analysis performed probably does not directly apply to college baseball, I've long thought that we seemed to have more success against bad teams (both in moving the runners and in the occasional thhrow-away) than against good teams. Nothing burns me up more about DVH's coaching than us attenpting, and often failing to move a runner over — especially when we do it with decent hitters at the plate. If we've cut down on it, I'll be a happy fan.

[flippinhogmana]

I think it's situational....I'm probably not playing small ball from inning 1-5 unless I'm squeezing a run home. Inning 6-8, I will bunt only to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd to allow a sac fly to score in. Inning 9, I'll bunt a guy into scoring pos.

I like elements of small ball, but I don't like it exclusively

Rather than cutting and pasting all the points made on why playing small ball has its uses (valid points) I would agree with the major point that small ball is best applied situationally.  If I am playing against a pitcher with a sub-one ERA I will definitely call for it, depending on the speed of the batter, the runner on base, etc.  I would be more apt to use it early seeing as how (if I have an equally effective pitcher going for me) one run might be the ball game. 

There are still a lot of variables - if my defense is good, if my batter responsible for driving in the run is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out - and is a good bunter , etc - then I might play for one run, even early.  There are also variables of small ball such as the squeeze or suicide squeeze that are important options at various times in the game. 

Case in point of when small ball should have been used but wasn't and it cost imho the softball hogs a game against Georgia recently - It was the last inning of regulation and on the road, the hogs got the bases loaded with nobody out.   The score was zero-zero.  Both pitchers had given up just one hit, we had a good contact hitter with speed on the bases, in that situation I am going to try a safety squeeze at least one time as that run is probably going to decide the game. 

We didn't and we got three straight outs without the runner on third scoring.  two extra innings later the bulldogs pushed across a run to win.   You cant ever load the bases and not score without being cursed for the rest of the game.  Sure you might get the big hit and break it open, but if the odds are one run is going to make the difference, again imho, you go that route without question, without fail - you put the pressure on the opposing defense to have to make the right play.

[TexHog188]

I agree that balls are flying out of the park, but I watched some of those west coast games and we just kept hitting fly balls into the heavy air. Seems we've lost our ability to shift our strategy when the conditions warrant a base to base approach, and runs are hard to come by.  Any way thanks for the answers. Go Hogs.

[razCzar]

Informative thread, guys.

Especially good posts, flip.
Glad to see you back on this board!
Don't be a stranger.

[hawginbigd1]

That was a huge part of our strategy between 2011 and 2014 when they changed the bats to the BBCOR and the balls still had raised seams.  It almost completely eliminated the long ball from college baseball.  We have already hit more HRs so far this season than in any of those four years.  In order to get runs, small ball became a huge part of our offense.

In 2015, they changed the ball to the minor league ball which has lower seams and caused the ball to travel further which brought the long ball back into the game along with more offense.  We have not sac bunted as much in the last four seasons due to having the ability to drive the ball out of the park.  Why give up an out early in the game when just about everyone can hit it 400+ feet at any given time?  Martin is about the only one DVH has sac bunted with early in games in situations like that due to his speed to where he can beat out the throw.

How I see it, but I think Friday night close league games I am doing it every time, except if you had Spanberger up or that type player who is probably never been asked to sacrifice ever. I love the sabremetrics stuff in baseball though.

[pigture perfect]

I'm more in favor of the steal over a bunt to move a runner along. I am pretty certain the chances of getting out by the bunt are greater than getting caught stealing.

[ricepig]

I personally prefer the missed bunt attempt on the first two strikes, followed by the 2/3 run homerun!

[Kevin]

I like to bunt to put us in a situation to get leads.

hogs have not been a good bunting team in years.

we are just better at swinging away

[jst01]

I like to bunt to put us in a situation to get leads.

hogs have not been a good bunting team in years.

we are just better at swinging away

Yep.  Do it in the real late innings when a lead will usually stand.

I would rather see us hit & run than bunt...is it risky with getting a line drive double play, yep. But in college there are lots of bad bunters and slower runners that will end up getting forced out at 2nd on a poor bunt/slow runner.

Hit & run at least gets the guy moving to avoid a DP, plus it makes the defense move around and if done right, could be 1st and 3rd with no gift out.

[dotnet]

With this line up, sacrifice bunting almost always reduces your overall run expectancy and win expectancy in that specific inning and for the game.

If you see a team advance a runner in the first 7 innings via the bunt, you can rest assured they just hurt their chances to win the game.  (At least with normal lineup. The equation changed if kenly is bunting or something)

[SPAL]

This team should never bunt first to second with no outs. But, I think we would be wise to think about bunting 2nd to 3rd with no outs in a close game.

I love to hit and run from first with no outs especially with a hitter who is struggling.

[drizzle]

Rather than cutting and pasting all the points made on why playing small ball has its uses (valid points) I would agree with the major point that small ball is best applied situationally.  If I am playing against a pitcher with a sub-one ERA I will definitely call for it, depending on the speed of the batter, the runner on base, etc.  I would be more apt to use it early seeing as how (if I have an equally effective pitcher going for me) one run might be the ball game. 

There are still a lot of variables - if my defense is good, if my batter responsible for driving in the run is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out - and is a good bunter , etc - then I might play for one run, even early.  There are also variables of small ball such as the squeeze or suicide squeeze that are important options at various times in the game. 

Case in point of when small ball should have been used but wasn't and it cost imho the softball hogs a game against Georgia recently - It was the last inning of regulation and on the road, the hogs got the bases loaded with nobody out.   The score was zero-zero.  Both pitchers had given up just one hit, we had a good contact hitter with speed on the bases, in that situation I am going to try a safety squeeze at least one time as that run is probably going to decide the game. 

We didn't and we got three straight outs without the runner on third scoring.  two extra innings later the bulldogs pushed across a run to win.   You cant ever load the bases and not score without being cursed for the rest of the game.  Sure you might get the big hit and break it open, but if the odds are one run is going to make the difference, again imho, you go that route without question, without fail - you put the pressure on the opposing defense to have to make the right play.

Astute observation.

The swing away approach maximizes expected runs -- i.e., the number of runs your team would expect to score that inning.  However, this is because there is the potential of blowing the inning up and scoring large totals; this possibility skews the average.

In contrast, you might think of situations where you want to maximize your chance of scoring any runs, even if that limits your chances of the huge inning. Tie game in the ninth or extra innings might be that kind of a situation.  In that case, I don't know the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that bunting the runner over gives a higher chance of scoring a run.

Coaches need to maximize their chances of winning the game.  In some situations that means giving the team the chance for a big inning.  Other times it means playing for one run.

[BroyledNutts]

A very good example of situational bunting happened tonight in game 1 with Florida. Fletcher, who hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the plate lately, gets the sign and bunts up the third base line. The Florida defense had the shift on and left the whole side between 2nd and 3rd open ... all Fletch had to do was get it down toward the bag at 3rd and there was no way he would be thrown out.

With capable guys up and down the lineup - using the bunt in situations that are advantageous to the offense, and taking what the defense gives you - gives you leverage to put pressure on the defense to have to make the play. If you're successful, good things can come of it - like tonight - that bunt single seemed to spark the offense and the result was a 3 run cushion for our ace to work with.

I don't like bunting to advance, but I understand it ... sometimes it can shake a lethargic offense to life. Sometimes it seems to put a lot of pressure on the next two batters to produce, and often times has them trying to do too much with the at bat, with poor results.

[flippinhogmana]

A very good example of situational bunting happened tonight in game 1 with Florida. Fletcher, who hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the plate lately, gets the sign and bunts up the third base line. The Florida defense had the shift on and left the whole side between 2nd and 3rd open ... all Fletch had to do was get it down toward the bag at 3rd and there was no way he would be thrown out.

With capable guys up and down the lineup - using the bunt in situations that are advantageous to the offense, and taking what the defense gives you - gives you leverage to put pressure on the defense to have to make the play. If you're successful, good things can come of it - like tonight - that bunt single seemed to spark the offense and the result was a 3 run cushion for our ace to work with.

I don't like bunting to advance, but I understand it ... sometimes it can shake a lethargic offense to life. Sometimes it seems to put a lot of pressure on the next two batters to produce, and often times has them trying to do too much with the at bat, with poor results.

I couldn't help but notice the same thing about Fletcher's bunt - in the situation, it was the right play.