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20% Advance on S&P by Year End

Started by BlackKnightHogFan, November 10, 2008, 06:15:28 pm

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BlackKnightHogFan

Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

Masshog

Hmmmm.......   When you get really tired the best answer is almost always to get really drunk. 
My feets hurt.

 

chortle


BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: Masshog on November 10, 2008, 06:19:40 pm
Hmmmm.......   When you get really tired the best answer is almost always to get really drunk. 

I quit drinking four years agoso that is out.  I have tried jumping out the window but I am on the first floor.  Also, I have curled up under my desk in the fetal position but the phone still rings.  Any other suggestions?
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

Ash


SultanofSwine

BK, you might as well go see the urologist while you are at it. :P

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: McKdaddy on November 11, 2008, 02:55:59 pm
Clients began receiving their October statements in the mail yesterday . . . oofta.

Yea, yesterday was the first day that I really took a pounding from clients.  Only so much you can perpare them for until they see it in black and white, it doesn't really seem that bad.  Once they had the weekend to simmer over the statements, the floodgates were opened on top of my head yesterday.  Is Waste Management hiring?

Sultan, I turn 42 on 2/1/2009 so that is already on the schedule...ugh!
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

Masshog

Quote from: Ash on November 11, 2008, 01:01:11 pm
Why the picture of masshog? :P
I could never look that good...  not even on my best day. 
My feets hurt.

chortle

Quote from: Masshog on November 11, 2008, 05:15:09 pm
I could never look that good...  not even on my best day. 

But did you get the memo about the TPS reports?

Masshog

Quote from: chortle on November 11, 2008, 09:24:09 pm
But did you get the memo about the TPS reports?
I got it, but they are buried under two piles of price deviation reports from October. 
My feets hurt.

SpareRib

November 17, 2008, 10:26:38 pm #11 Last Edit: November 19, 2008, 05:48:52 pm by SpareRib
This is not my chart work, but I found them interesting.  Re: the thread subject, if the S&P is to bounce 20% by year end, it better hurry.  I don't like what I see here.


This is a long term S&P chart, last dated October 8.  The month subsequent was not encouraging.




Here is a Nasdaq chart covering basically the same period of years, but dated today.



...and here is a current 12 mo. Dow chart in weekly increments



Looking at these makes me think that a 20% bounce by year end is a pipe dream, but looking more closely suggests that we might be on the precipice over very dark waters.

I'm no chart expert.  What are your opinions?
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

Masshog

One of the things that keeps sucking guys into the market is the supposed oversold condition of the market.  Number of issues below two hundred day average, sentiment and so on.  What they fail to grasp is that different things work in different trend states.  Just like the fundamentalists, they don't get that this trend state is a rare and very different animal.  The crap that has worked pretty well over the last twenty years, doesn't stand much of a chance of working right now.  Recognizing and adapting to the trend state is one of the hardest things to learn.  One of the things you have done is a simple thing that many who read charts for a living fail to do.... when things get volatile, pull out MONTHLY (and yearly charts) and work from those.   
My feets hurt.

 

Masshog

By the way, the trend line that you are drawing was broken months ago on a log (% change) chart.  It pretty much marked the death of the secular bull. 
My feets hurt.

Masshog

November 18, 2008, 05:10:59 am #14 Last Edit: November 18, 2008, 05:13:01 am by Masshog
test.....  just seeing if I can post charts from stockcharts...



Doesn't seem to work for me.  I guess someone has to post them to their website and then you can grab them? 

My feets hurt.

SpareRib

Lifted those from another site.  I'm not presently a stockchart subscriber, but here's what I can do with their free stuff.






Here's what I do in layman's terms -  If Douglas is around, maybe he can translate this.  :)

I put my cursor at the top or the bottom of the image and holding the left mouse key down wave the mouse over the image until it lights up with a blue highlight.

I then save it to my desktop as a bitmap file from where I can open it in my image editor and clean it up if necessary.
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

SpareRib

Quote from: Masshog on November 18, 2008, 05:08:30 am
By the way, the trend line that you are drawing was broken months ago on a log (% change) chart.  It pretty much marked the death of the secular bull. 

Can you post an example of the log chart you're referencing?  (You know - just hold your thingy down, put it on the corner of the image, wave it around til it turns blue, then save the result.)
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: Masshog on November 18, 2008, 05:08:30 am
By the way, the trend line that you are drawing was broken months ago on a log (% change) chart.  It pretty much marked the death of the secular bull. 

I think the secular bull died in 1999-2000.  Believe we are and have been in secular bear since that time...think 1968-1982...can you prove me wrong?
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SpareRib

November 18, 2008, 01:04:06 pm #18 Last Edit: November 18, 2008, 01:08:47 pm by SpareRib
Quote from: BlackKnightHogFan on November 18, 2008, 12:29:04 pm
I think the secular bull died in 1999-2000.  Believe we are and have been in secular bear since that time...think 1968-1982...can you prove me wrong?

Interesting that you said that.  When I retired from my "real job" in 4th Q 1999, I had been actively trading for about four years with great results.  I decided to spend more time doing same.  Immediately, things I was doing quit working.  The market was changing dramatically then, and my system was geared to swing trading in a market that was level or upbound.  Volatility helped me as long as the market was level or on the upswing, but when things started south, I ignored the larger signs and began to focus on minutiae.  Masshog put his finger on it above when he said -

"Recognizing and adapting to the trend state is one of the hardest things to learn.  One of the things you have done is a simple thing that many who read charts for a living fail to do.... when things get volatile, pull out MONTHLY (and yearly charts) and work from those. " 

Instead of backing away and looking at the big picture for an honest market appraisal, I chose to bore in - My costly error.

But I digress - My point is that the market seemed to me to change dramatically around the last quarter of 1999.

(For reference to where my head was, myself and a few friends were stuck in Harry Dent and The Roaring 2000's.)
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

Masshog

Quote from: BlackKnightHogFan on November 18, 2008, 12:29:04 pm
I think the secular bull died in 1999-2000.  Believe we are and have been in secular bear since that time...think 1968-1982...can you prove me wrong?
Nope. 
My feets hurt.

Masshog

Spare, my guess is that you didn't lift the chart from Stockcharts, but from a web site that it was published on.  Is that correct? 
My feets hurt.

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: SpareRib on November 18, 2008, 01:04:06 pm
Interesting that you said that.  When I retired from my "real job" in 4th Q 1999, I had been actively trading for about four years with great results.  I decided to spend more time doing same.  Immediately, things I was doing quit working.  The market was changing dramatically then, and my system was geared to swing trading in a market that was level or upbound.  Volatility helped me as long as the market was level or on the upswing, but when things started south, I ignored the larger signs and began to focus on minutiae.  Masshog put his finger on it above when he said -

"Recognizing and adapting to the trend state is one of the hardest things to learn.  One of the things you have done is a simple thing that many who read charts for a living fail to do.... when things get volatile, pull out MONTHLY (and yearly charts) and work from those. " 

Instead of backing away and looking at the big picture for an honest market appraisal, I chose to bore in - My costly error.

But I digress - My point is that the market seemed to me to change dramatically around the last quarter of 1999.

(For reference to where my head was, myself and a few friends were stuck in Harry Dent and The Roaring 2000's.)

That is what many investors did.  I am sure that Mass, Biggus and others that are more attune to the interworkings of the markets will prove me wrong.  Many true technicians say that the bull run from 2003-2007 was an extention of the bull of the '90s.  Many ways they are correct.

However, if we have a 110% retracement of the highs from Oct 2007 and break the 2002 lows, my theory becomes even more relevent.  Since I began in this business, I have studied intently the market from 1968 through 1982.  The Dow first hit 1000 in 1968 and did not leave it behind until 1982.  14 years of a flat market.  We did have some tough bear markets during that time '73-'74 and two other down years in '69 and '77.  However, from 1982-2000 there were no down years of any significance.  Everybody knows about the crash of '87 but for the most part many of the losses of Black Monday were recovered before the end of the year.  Since 2000, we have had three down years, a flat year, a couple of decent years and only '03 and '07 that were strong years.  In my opinion 1999-2008 have been very similar to the '68-'82.  Additionally, I don't see any strong years in the near future.  The last flat period lasted 14 years.  Japan has the "lost decade".  How long might this one last?
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SpareRib

Quote from: Masshog on November 18, 2008, 05:55:01 pm
Spare, my guess is that you didn't lift the chart from Stockcharts, but from a web site that it was published on.  Is that correct? 

MH, my first chart post was with charts filched from Clearstation.  My second chart post was from the home page of stockcharts using their free stuff.
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

Steef

Could I (politely) ask one of you to speak english, for those of us who don't know what you're talking about? (I'm probably the only one of those in here, but someone might pass through).

I'm just an average schmoe. I work with my hands for a living. I don't have enough in the market to matter.

But the market still matters. It's the only barometer of our economy that EVERYONE looks to, from peon to CEO.

I know you're all just giving educated guesses. But the 'educated' part is gibberish to me.

 

Masshog

Ive always thought that the 2001-02 highs were likely the top of the secular bull market (Steef, the secular trend is the LONG term trend) and that the rally to the 2007 high was part and parcel of the secondary test of that high.  But the I don't think it really matters so much as realizing that the long term trend is now neutral.  Its one of the big reasons I went to cash in mid 2007 and one of the reasons that I don't think that the bear market that began last year is over. 



My feets hurt.

Masshog

My feets hurt.

Masshog

Alright... .I keep trying to post charts with 0 success.  I will work on it again later. 
My feets hurt.

Steef

Quote from: Masshog on November 18, 2008, 08:37:27 pm
Ive always thought that the 2001-02 highs were likely the top of the secular bull market (Steef, the secular trend is the LONG term trend) and that the rally to the 2007 high was part and parcel of the secondary test of that high.  But the I don't think it really matters so much as realizing that the long term trend is now neutral.  Its one of the big reasons I went to cash in mid 2007 and one of the reasons that I don't think that the bear market that began last year is over. 





:)  For the explanation.

:(  For the explanation.


SpareRib

I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: steefhog on November 18, 2008, 06:53:20 pm
Could I (politely) ask one of you to speak english, for those of us who don't know what you're talking about? (I'm probably the only one of those in here, but someone might pass through).

I'm just an average schmoe. I work with my hands for a living. I don't have enough in the market to matter.

But the market still matters. It's the only barometer of our economy that EVERYONE looks to, from peon to CEO.

I know you're all just giving educated guesses. But the 'educated' part is gibberish to me.

In my opinion, the market is going to be volatile but flat for the foreseeable future.  Probably in a range from 700 to 1000 on the S&P and 7000 to 10500 on the Dow.  That is not advice but my best attempt at plain english.
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

Steef


Masshog

Quote from: SpareRib on November 18, 2008, 09:44:43 pm
Are you saving the chart to your desktop like a picture, then posting it in Photobucket?
Posting to photobucket?  AHHHHH....   I guess Picasso or any online photo site would work.   
My feets hurt.

chortle

Quote from: Masshog on November 18, 2008, 08:51:25 pm
Alright... .I keep trying to post charts with 0 success.  I will work on it again later. 

You have to learn how to post porn in here before you can successfully post charts.

BlackKnightHogFan

Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SultanofSwine

BK, keep in mind that being in a secular bear does not preclude the market from having positive or even substantially positive years. The normal business cycles are still going to be present of 3-5 positive years followed by 2-3 flat to negative years regardless of the secualr cycle if you give any credence to the last 100 years of history.

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: SultanofSwine on November 19, 2008, 11:54:38 am
BK, keep in mind that being in a secular bear does not preclude the market from having positive or even substantially positive years. The normal business cycles are still going to be present of 3-5 positive years followed by 2-3 flat to negative years regardless of the secualr cycle if you give any credence to the last 100 years of history.

Oh I agree.  That is my point with '68-'82.  Even though we had a secular bear, if you were in the "right stuff" you did fine.  Not like '83-"98 but enough to outpace inflation and retire comfortably.  It requires discipline though.
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

HognotinMemphis

I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

BlackKnightHogFan

Quote from: HoginMemphis on November 19, 2008, 03:18:08 pm
Buy some lottery tickets.

That is what we would call LACKING the discipline I alluded to in my previous post.  ;)
Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SultanofSwine

Unless you hit, then it is called hedging 8)

BlackKnightHogFan

Upon the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that upon other fields; on other days, will bear the fruits of victory.  -Douglas MacArthur

Member #:  9524

SpareRib

Will someone take a quick glance at the charts in this post and tell me what you see. 

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=259995.msg3823643#msg3823643

My originals are complete thru Oct 8, 2008 for the S&P and thru Nov 17, 2008 for the other two, but tonight it appears that the right side of the charts are cut off in 2005-2006 for the Nasdaq and S&P and around the end of October for the Dow.  If you are seeing what I see I will remove and correct them.

Thanks -


I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

Masshog

My feets hurt.

Masshog

My feets hurt.

SpareRib

Quote from: Masshog on November 19, 2008, 07:26:19 pm
Look correct to me. 

Thanks - On closer look, there is a rt/lt scroll bar at the bottom of my post.   I'm in Memphis on a different computer tonight and I think I'm looking at a display glitch.
I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

SpareRib

I'll fish 'til the money's gone ... then I'll fish for food!<br /><br />My heritage - Dutch/Polish/German on one side, English/Welsh on the other.  I'm a mutt, not a show dog.  Proud to be an American!

Masshog

My feets hurt.

Masshog

My feets hurt.

Masshog

Still no luck with the charts.... posted them in Picasso..  placed the link inside the two image tags....  Im starting to feel like duffus.....
My feets hurt.

chortle

Quote from: Masshog on November 19, 2008, 07:48:12 pm
Still no luck with the charts.... posted them in Picasso..  placed the link inside the two image tags....  Im starting to feel like duffus.....

If when you download them, they are image files, then save it to your desktop or wherever you can find them.

Then go to www.tinypic.com. Upload them. Once you have uploaded them, click on "view large image". When the image comes up, right click on the image and find the URL in the properties. Highlight and copy the URL.

Come back to Hogville, and in your post, click the "insert picture" icon, it will place two "[img/]" boxes in your post. Put your cursor between them, right click, then paste the copied URL in there.

That should do it.

Masshog

Thanks Chortle...its obvious to me at this juncture that ole Sparerib was toying with me.... sorry bastage.  ;)
My feets hurt.