Does Recruiting Really Matter? Analysis of SEC Recruiting vs. Record 2007-2017

[UAGolfer1981]

Do Rankings Really Matter? 

In attempt to answer this question quantitatively, I analyzed the Recruiting Rankings and W/L Records for each SEC team from 2007 through 2017.

For each year in the analysis, I captured each team's Recruiting Ranking in the SEC using 24/7 and their corresponding SEC Record Ranking.  I calculated each team's average position ranking (shown in the parenthesis). For example, Alabama had the best Recruiting in the SEC with an average ranking of 1.73 over the analysis period. I will try to attach the detail, however, a summary is shown below:

               Recruiting Rank (Average)     SEC Record Rank (Average)   
Alabama         1   (1.73)                            1   (2.27)
Arkansas       10   (9.36)                          10   (8.36)
Auburn           5   (4.91)                            5   (6.00)
Florida            3   (4.09)                            4   (5.36)
Georgia          4   (4.18)                            2   (4.36)
Kentucky       12   (11.64)                        14   (10.64)
LSU                2   (3.18)                            3   (4.55)
Miss State      11   (9.55)                           8   (8.18)
Missouri*       14   (12.67)                          9   (8.33)
Ole Miss          8   (7.64)                          12   (8.45)
So Carolina      9   (7.73)                           7   (7.55)
Tennessee       7   (5.91)                          11   (8.36)
Texas A&M*    6   (5.33)                            6   (6.83)
Vanderbilt      13   (12.64)                        13   (10.27)
         * reflects 2012-17 only   
               
Observations:
- In general, recruiting rankings are a strong indicator of record
- There is clear delineation between the Top Tier(Ala, LSU, Geo, Fla) and Bottom Tier(Vandy, Kty)
- In the Middle Tier, coaching is a big difference maker (both positively and negatively). Examples: Petrino, Mullen, Franklin, Jones
- The addition of Missouri and Texas A&M has impacted the Middle (Arkansas in particular)
- Tenn & Texas A&M consistent "under-achievers"
- Missouri & Miss State are consistent "over-achievers"
- The yearly detail data (not shown) indicates it takes 2 years for a significant change in Recruiting Ranking to be reflected on W/L record

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Very nice.  +1

And it confirms what many have been saying.  The recruiting rankings are fuzziest in the middle tier, which is why you see more various with on field results for those in the middle tier of recruiting.

[Deep Shoat]

Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny...

[rtr]

How would that look for Arkansas if you threw out the last 6 years?

[UAGolfer1981]

Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny...

Similar to the rebuked Haeckel theory/hypothesis, there are exceptions, such as the early years of Saban and Petrino era.  You can't turn a bird into a fish, but you can make them fly higher.

[UAGolfer1981]

How would that look for Arkansas if you threw out the last 6 years?

2007-2011 analysis is attached below.  Top Tier programs remain (Ala, Fla, Geo, LSU) and Bottom (Vandy, Kty).  Arkansas heads up the Middle Tier.  This also reflects the impact of the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC that was highlighted in the prior analysis.

Talent matters, but coaching can overcome talent discrepancies through scheme, mental & physical conditioning, game-management, motivation, etc.  There is hope with CCM with a scheme that matches talent and making inroads in Texas recruiting.  What are your thoughts?

[UAGolfer1981]

Just for fun, I completed the analysis to include the past 4 Arkansas coaching eras (Nutt, Petrino, Smith, Bielema).

Observations:
- Arkansas does not have to have top ranked recruiting classes to compete for SEC titles on occassion
- Houston Nutt landed the top recruiting class (2001) and 4 of the top 5 recruiting classes
- Petrino got the most out of his recruiting classes

[Pinto]

Petrino got blessed with Mallett via transfer which will not be reflected in recruiting rankings.

[go hogues]

Do Rankings Really Matter? 

In attempt to answer this question quantitatively, I analyzed the Recruiting Rankings and W/L Records for each SEC team from 2007 through 2017.

For each year in the analysis, I captured each team's Recruiting Ranking in the SEC using 24/7 and their corresponding SEC Record Ranking.  I calculated each team's average position ranking (shown in the parenthesis). For example, Alabama had the best Recruiting in the SEC with an average ranking of 1.73 over the analysis period. I will try to attach the detail, however, a summary is shown below:

               Recruiting Rank (Average)     SEC Record Rank (Average)   
Alabama         1   (1.73)                            1   (2.27)
Arkansas       10   (9.36)                          10   (8.36)
Auburn           5   (4.91)                            5   (6.00)
Florida            3   (4.09)                            4   (5.36)
Georgia          4   (4.18)                            2   (4.36)
Kentucky       12   (11.64)                        14   (10.64)
LSU                2   (3.18)                            3   (4.55)
Miss State      11   (9.55)                           8   (8.18)
Missouri*       14   (12.67)                          9   (8.33)
Ole Miss          8   (7.64)                          12   (8.45)
So Carolina      9   (7.73)                           7   (7.55)
Tennessee       7   (5.91)                          11   (8.36)
Texas A&M*    6   (5.33)                            6   (6.83)
Vanderbilt      13   (12.64)                        13   (10.27)
         * reflects 2012-17 only   
               
Observations:
- In general, recruiting rankings are a strong indicator of record
- There is clear delineation between the Top Tier(Ala, LSU, Geo, Fla) and Bottom Tier(Vandy, Kty)
- In the Middle Tier, coaching is a big difference maker (both positively and negatively). Examples: Petrino, Mullen, Franklin, Jones
- The addition of Missouri and Texas A&M has impacted the Middle (Arkansas in particular)
- Tenn & Texas A&M consistent "under-achievers"
- Missouri & Miss State are consistent "over-achievers"
- The yearly detail data (not shown) indicates it takes 2 years for a significant change in Recruiting Ranking to be reflected on W/L record

This should be stickied.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Again, somewhat akin to the "chicken and the egg". I've not going to dispute the fact that teams with highly ranked classes are typically going to perform better year in, year out. Duh, that stands to reason. So.....starting with that premise/fact let's move on to the next question. How do the Hogs close the performance gap? The immediate and obvious answer is to do a far better recruiting job of our own. However, one thing we can also do is to do a far more effective job of coaching and developing the talent we DO have. Whether a kid be a four/five star or a two or three, the key to beginning to immediately improve on field performance is just that. I honestly can't believe that even with the shortage of top notch talent on the Hogs the past few years that the lack of effort (especially in the second half), generally poor techniques such as tackling, pass coverage, and even blocking ENTIRELY comes back to lack of talent.....sorry, I'm not totally buying into that. IMO some of that has to do with the mindset (lack of effort), lack of conditioning, poor fundamentals and other things that were NOT instilled from day one when these kids come onto campus. This is something that CMM and staff can most definitely address during this offseason. And while it may not help us win the West in 2018 or even 2019, it can most definitely give us a better chance to compete and win going forward. 

[UAGolfer1981]

This article just hit my feed today.  Interesting read and supports our observations:

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ranking-secs-football-rosters-2018

[FrozenHam]

Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny...

+1 Nice, Deep Shoat!  Didn't expect to see that here!

[FrozenHam]

Attempt to reformat fantastic data provided by UAGolfer1981:

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Petrino got blessed with Mallett via transfer which will not be reflected in recruiting rankings.

Petrino was just cleaning up Nutt's mess...before making his own mess a few years later.