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Anderson v. Calipari v. Anderson

Started by Biggus Piggus, January 05, 2017, 12:03:37 pm

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Biggus Piggus

January 05, 2017, 12:03:37 pm Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 12:20:30 pm by Biggus Piggus
Here I include two tables to provide fodder for discussion.

The first table compares key statistics of Mike Anderson's Arkansas teams with 1) those of John Calipari at Kentucky and 2) those of Anderson at Missouri.

The second table compares the average national rankings for those statistics. I will follow with some commentary.
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Biggus Piggus

Anderson at Arkansas vs. Calipari at Kentucky:

On average, Anderson's Arkansas teams have been
* Faster-paced but much less efficient at scoring.
* Far less effective on defense.
* Similar at ballhandling, greater emphasis on forcing turnovers.
* Much less efficient at rebounding on either end.
* Less effective at getting to the line.
* Far more frequent fouling on defense.
* Much less accurate from 2-point range.
* Similarly accurate from 3-point range.
* Much less effective at interior and perimeter shooting defense.
* More dependent on assists to generate baskets.
* Less effective at minimizing opponents' assists.

Calipari's teams have been outstanding vs. national averages at offensive AND defensive efficiency, along with offensive rebounding and 2-pt % defense.

Anderson's Arkansas teams have rated best at ballhandling while lacking any other outstanding qualities.
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GoHogzzGo

Wow great info that was a nice read. Nothing too surprising to me given Anderson's style and less talent.
Success isn't permanent and failure isn't fatal.

Biggus Piggus

Anderson at Arkansas vs. Anderson at Missouri:

* A little slower tempo, same offensive efficiency.
* Much less effective on defense.
* Less favorable turnover margin.
* Same offensive rebounding, better defensive rebounding.
* Much better at getting to the line, similar fouling frequency.
* Poorer shooting inside the arc.
* Similar field goal % defense.
* Similar dependence on assists.
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FineAsSwine

I've been thinking of challenging Dale Earnhardt Jr. to an auto race but I want to drive his race car and let him drive my wife's Prius.
Hogs up! Covid down!

Biggus Piggus

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Biggus Piggus

On average, Kentucky's awesome on both ends. In reality, UK lost two games.

UCLA beat the Cats by making them work very hard for shots + totally breaking down their halfcourt defense.

Louisville won by making UK's offense look ordinary, rebounding well, and minimizing TOs.
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Biggus Piggus

Mike Anderson has steered this year's team in a different direction on defense.

The Hogs have improved a lot vs. last season on

* 2-pt and 3-pt field goal % defense.
* Frequency of fouling.
* Blocked shots.
* Assists allowed.
* Defensive rebounding.

But the slippage on turnover margin offsets what was gained in rebounding. If Arkansas is deemphasizing ball-denial to get better field goal % defense and rebounding, the Hogs need better perimeter D results and better rebounding than this.
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razoredge178

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on January 05, 2017, 12:12:36 pm
Anderson at Arkansas vs. Calipari at Kentucky:

On average, Anderson's Arkansas teams have been
* Faster-paced but much less efficient at scoring.
* Far less effective on defense.
* Similar at ballhandling, greater emphasis on forcing turnovers.
* Much less efficient at rebounding on either end.
* Less effective at getting to the line.
* Far more frequent fouling on defense.
* Much less accurate from 2-point range.
* Similarly accurate from 3-point range.
* Much less effective at interior and perimeter shooting defense.
* More dependent on assists to generate baskets.
* Less effective at minimizing opponents' assists.

Calipari's teams have been outstanding vs. national averages at offensive AND defensive efficiency, along with offensive rebounding and 2-pt % defense.

Anderson's Arkansas teams have rated best at ballhandling while lacking any other outstanding qualities.

That second asterisk, paired with the 6th one, has been a one two gut punch the entire time CMA has been here. I've been to every home game so far this year, and have seen NOTHING that indicates he ever plans on courting a defensively sound team.

On a side note-- I never could figure out how we've stuck it out with the "Fastest 40 Minutes,".....hell we've doubled down this year and say the "Fastest 40 Just Got Faster." What a joke. Nolan's 40 minutes of hell was as much about his stifling defense as it was his up tempo downhill offense.

Biggus Piggus

One way to look at these statistics - compare offense vs. defense.

The difference in points per possession only tells you a team's average scoring margin.

The other differences tell you how a team produces its advantages.

Kentucky's margins:
+10% 2-point field goal percentage
+8% turnover margin
+6% rebounding margin
+5% free throw frequency
+5% 3-point field goal percentage

Arkansas's margins:
+5% 2-point field goal percentage
+4% rebounding margin
+4% free throw frequency
+4% 3-point field goal percentage
+1% turnover margin

I'd say the most important way to attack Kentucky is to reduce their easy 2-point shots, primarily by reducing their turnover margin. Beat their pressure.
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Razorod

Love the stats and the narrative. Main takeaway for me is that Anderson doesn't appear to be doing as well at Arkansas as he did at Mizzou.

Do you think recruiting is the main culprit/cause for this slide?
Hoping the Hogs basketball fortunes change for the better this season.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Razorod on January 05, 2017, 02:41:13 pm
Love the stats and the narrative. Main takeaway for me is that Anderson doesn't appear to be doing as well at Arkansas as he did at Mizzou.

Do you think recruiting is the main culprit/cause for this slide?

He hasn't been able to take what he did at Mizzou and bring it to Arkansas.  Not to this point.  And it has been surprising.  I was very optimistic about his ability to do so in terms of getting the players he needed-guards, combo forwards- to effectively play his preferred defensive style.  I know you asked BP but IMO yes recruiting.  Been a near complete failure in that sense when you combine player retention in getting the guard depth and ability compared to Mizzou.  Now we could entertain reasons early on like APR concern limiting what he could as far as roster clearing and signees(even though it has been overstated IMO). 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Razorod

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on January 05, 2017, 02:46:52 pm
He hasn't been able to take what he did at Mizzou and bring it to Arkansas.  Not to this point.  And it has been surprising.  I was very optimistic about his ability to do so in terms of getting the players he needed-guards, combo forwards- to effectively play his preferred defensive style.  I know you asked BP but IMO yes recruiting.  Been a near complete failure in that sense when you combine player retention in getting the guard depth and ability compared to Mizzou.  Now we could entertain reasons early on like APR concern limiting what he could as far as roster clearing and signees(even though it has been overstated IMO). 
I'd agree.
Hoping the Hogs basketball fortunes change for the better this season.

 

Atlhogfan1

January 05, 2017, 02:55:14 pm #13 Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 08:59:03 am by Atlhogfan1
Cal's offense at UK at times has devolved into throw the basketball toward the basket, go get the offensive rebound and score or get fouled.  Made them not so hard to defend at times.  Don't see them needing to fall back to that this season. 

UK is currently 4th in college basketball in least frequency of turning ball over.  Nice improvement over their previous teams.  Their 2013-14 team we beat finished 149th. 

Louisville's D can make offenses look ordinary. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

pigsooie1000

for those saying he hasn't brought to Arkansas what he did at Mizzou, he's done very similar things. look at the tables again, the numbers are scarily close to each other except we force fewer turnovers than Mizzou did and shoot 3% worse from inside 3 point line. I think this year we are going in the right direction (less pressing and less gambling for turnovers) but we aren't at all ready to stifle in the halfcourt. too many of these players still look uncomfortable on D in halfcourt and rebounding in a zone so we are stuck halfway playing the gambling man to man where the switches get scorched way too often.

Pork Twain

Biggus, it seems that we are in the same boat with MA.  Not willing to give him our full faith but wanting to really bad.  Do you think he is the coach that can finally get us back into the NCAA and eventually take us deep?
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: Pork Twain on January 06, 2017, 05:59:19 am
Biggus, it seems that we are in the same boat with MA.  Not willing to give him our full faith but wanting to really bad.  Do you think he is the coach that can finally get us back into the NCAA and eventually take us deep?

In my view, it will help a great deal when Arkansas has true wing players (as it will next season) rather than having to play three guards.

Recruiting has not brought in enough quick, tough defenders at guard. Recruiting has not brought in good enough power forwards.

Daniel Gafford will be essentially the replacement for Moses Kingsley, though more talented. The Hogs still need to solve the problem in the low post. A couple of Miller-Credit types would do wonders. This team will get pushed around in the paint until it solves that problem, meaning it won't quite get to the contender level.

Anderson keeps trying and missing. At least he has not done what Nolan did + give up entirely on trying to recruit anybody but pluggers and tweeners for the low post.
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Smithian

I think Mike Anderson is just as good if not better than Calipari coaching on game day.

ChicoHog

Quote from: Smithian on January 07, 2017, 07:14:18 pm
I think Mike Anderson is just as good if not better than Calipari coaching on game day.
That would be a big no regardless of today's outcome.  I do like that Anderson has a different game plan today.  Cal is a great defensive coach. Not as brilliant on the offensive end.