Arkansas/Auburn Spread

[three hog night]

They will be as good as last year, but will they get the same breaks in key games as they did last year?

Also, the Hogs will be a much better team this season in all phases except for field goal kicking.

Good points.  AU will be good, but received multiple MIRACLES.   The Hogs got every bad break imaginable.  Injuries at QB and the Secondary killed us. 

I am curious about our improvement if we are ONLY neutral on breaks, have limited injuries, the oline gels, the secondary improves, WR's play up to potential, and the new DC is better than average.

[hogrocker]

We're gonna shock the world!!

[HogFanatic]

The line is too high. I've been saying it since it opened. I don't like to bet on the home team either, but this thing is practically money in hand. If it weren't the first game of the season, I wouldn't be so confident in this, but EVERYONE plays sloppy in game 1. This works in the Hogs' favor. It will either be a close victory for Auburn, or Arkansas will smoke those fools. Watch and see.

[Al Boarland]

The line is too high. I've been saying it since it opened. I don't like to bet on the home team either, but this thing is practically money in hand. If it weren't the first game of the season, I wouldn't be so confident in this, but EVERYONE plays sloppy in game 1. This works in the Hogs' favor. It will either be a close victory for Auburn, or Arkansas will smoke those fools. Watch and see.

That's a contradictory statement.  Everyone is sloppy game one, but we could smoke Auburn?  I'm guessing others see it the opposite way.  I think it will either be close or Auburn could win big.

[HogFanatic]

That's a contradictory statement.  Everyone is sloppy game one, but we could smoke Auburn?  I'm guessing others see it the opposite way.  I think it will either be close or Auburn could win big.

How is that a contradictory statement?
Sloppy conditions favor the underdog.

Arkansas has one thing going for them in this situation; they were the least penalized team in the SEC last season, and one of the most sound in the entire country. Arkansas has an advantage here. If Auburn is playing exceptionally sloppy, it could turn into a decisive victory for the Hogs. But playing in Auburn is going to generate some momentum that will be hard to overcome. It will either be a close Auburn victory, or a 10-12 point victory for the Hogs in which Auburn never really stood a chance.

[Al Boarland]

How is that a contradictory statement?
Sloppy conditions favor the underdog.

Arkansas has one thing going for them in this situation; they were the least penalized team in the SEC last season, and one of the most sound in the entire country. Arkansas has an advantage here. If Auburn is playing exceptionally sloppy, it could turn into a decisive victory for the Hogs. But playing in Auburn is going to generate some momentum that will be hard to overcome. It will either be a close Auburn victory, or a 10-12 point victory for the Hogs in which Auburn never really stood a chance.

We'll revisit this after the game.  I think this game will show how far we have to go.

[HogFanatic]

As was said earlier, the smart money will be laid down late. I think we will see some pretty significant movement towards Arkansas as we get closer to game time. And depending on fall camp, we could see some dramatic movement. The lines will be much more fluid leading into week 1 than they will be from there out. 17 sounds about right to me. 23.5 or whatever it is, is folly.

[Means-well]

It's easier to predict how good we'll be than auburn. They are a total 2014 wild card. If they've truly developed a passing game (their total spring focus) like in 2010, combined with their run attack - it could be an offense like the sec hasn't seen in ..... I don't know  But if it's simply the 2013 team - one dimensional offense, average defense - I like our chances.

[pillowhog]

It's easier to predict how good we'll be than auburn. They are a total 2014 wild card. If they've truly developed a passing game (their total spring focus) like in 2010, combined with their run attack - it could be an offense like the sec hasn't seen in ..... I don't know  But if it's simply the 2013 team - one dimensional offense, average defense - I like our chances.

LMFAO you are kidding surely.  In 2013 they had over 7000 total yards.  Simply the 2013 team.....funny stuff

[Means-well]

LMFAO you are kidding surely.  In 2013 they had over 7000 total yards.  Simply the 2013 team.....funny stuff

Thanks... The assumption is after having almost a year to study their read option offense in detail, which admittedly is only a part of the gus' full play book, we and other teams will have some sort of a response to it. DC's have been known to study and effectively adapt.

[HogFanatic]

Thanks... The assumption is after having almost a year to study their read option offense in detail, which admittedly is only a part of the gus' full play book, we and other teams will have some sort of a response to it. DC's have been known to study and effectively adapt.

I read a really interesting article here awhile back (wouldn't even know where to look for it) that was detailing the quarters defensive scheme that Nick Saban developed with Bill Belechick at Cleveland. It was designed specifically to slow down the spread. Long story short, and the point, is that yes, defensive coordinators DO study these more innovative offenses and adjust schemes to fit what they're seeing...over time. In Nick Saban's case, that defense was developed over the course of YEARS, not a single half of football.

On the other hand, as was stated numerous times in that "How do we stop auburn" thread, Gus's read option, veer offense is not easily accounted for. He has a whole LOT of options that he can throw into that specific subset of his offense.

He will line up and run the same thing over and over until you prove you can stop it. Then he will run something else. He really is a very good offensive minded coach, but as you said, I think he is gonna have to go deeper into his playbook this year. Nobody is going to full-on stop his read option game, but defenses WILL slow it down this year.

[5th Flo]

Thanks... The assumption is after having almost a year to study their read option offense in detail, which admittedly is only a part of the gus' full play book, we and other teams will have some sort of a response to it. DC's have been known to study and effectively adapt.

He's been running essentially the same offense since he came to Auburn in 2009. Don't see why last year was anything new for most SEC DC's.

[Al Boarland]

I read a really interesting article here awhile back (wouldn't even know where to look for it) that was detailing the quarters defensive scheme that Nick Saban developed with Bill Belechick at Cleveland. It was designed specifically to slow down the spread. Long story short, and the point, is that yes, defensive coordinators DO study these more innovative offenses and adjust schemes to fit what they're seeing...over time. In Nick Saban's case, that defense was developed over the course of YEARS, not a single half of football.

On the other hand, as was stated numerous times in that "How do we stop auburn" thread, Gus's read option, veer offense is not easily accounted for. He has a whole LOT of options that he can throw into that specific subset of his offense.

He will line up and run the same thing over and over until you prove you can stop it. Then he will run something else. He really is a very good offensive minded coach, but as you said, I think he is gonna have to go deeper into his playbook this year. Nobody is going to full-on stop his read option game, but defenses WILL slow it down this year.

A couple things...

1.  I doubt Gus and his OC are just sitting back napping.  I would imagine they are constantly innovating their offense.

2.  People have been studying the pro-style (whatever that means) offense for years.

[HogFanatic]

A couple things...

1.  I doubt Gus and his OC are just sitting back napping.  I would imagine they are constantly innovating their offense.

2.  People have been studying the pro-style (whatever that means) offense for years.

A couple of things...

1. Gus is going to run the same offense this year until someone proves they can stop it.
He would be a complete fool not to.

2. Gus doesn't run a pro-style offense.

[Al Boarland]

A couple of things...

1. Gus is going to run the same offense this year until someone proves they can stop it.
He would be a complete fool not to.

2. Gus doesn't run a pro-style offense.

So, he's lying when he says they will be more balanced this season?

I'm well aware he doesn't run a pro-style offense (the way you view it).  I think if you watch the NFL you will find that the game has changed and pro-style doesn't mean what it once did.  You see a little bit of everything.

[HogFanatic]

So, he's lying when he says they will be more balanced this season?

I'm well aware he doesn't run a pro-style offense (the way you view it).  I think if you watch the NFL you will find that the game has changed and pro-style doesn't mean what it once did.  You see a little bit of everything.

I don't know if I would call it lying. But he will run the same exact offense. He may throw more passes, but they will still have the same route tree, same formations, etc. Why in the hell would he change his offense now when it took him to the NCG?

[Means-well]

IMO their offense will attempt to be much more balanced. It's how much Marshall has progress that dictates much of the outcome and the line. Ie:

http://m.dothaneagle.com/sports/article_d585cb62-c832-11e3-88c6-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm

[Al Boarland]

I don't know if I would call it lying. But he will run the same exact offense. He may throw more passes, but they will still have the same route tree, same formations, etc. Why in the hell would he change his offense now when it took him to the NCG?

I don't think anyone is saying he will completely change his offense.  His QB didn't get there until fall camp, so he most likely was only comfortable with a very small percentage of the playbook. 

I can see them adding new wrinkles to the stuff they ran last year as well as using plays they didn't use last season.  That should be concerning considering they made it to the natty with a small amount of plays.

[HogFanatic]

I don't think anyone is saying he will completely change his offense.  His QB didn't get there until fall camp, so he most likely was only comfortable with a very small percentage of the playbook. 

I can see them adding new wrinkles to the stuff they ran last year as well as using plays they didn't use last season.  That should be concerning considering they made it to the natty with a small amount of plays.

No worries. They will NOT do that again. I would bet the farm on it if I owned one.