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Non-conference schedule released

Started by ricepig, August 17, 2015, 10:28:40 am

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jry04

That is actually a pretty decent schedule. I do not know much about these teams moving forward, but I do not think we have any 300+ RPI teams on the schedule, unless Southern is terrible.

Dayton, Wake, GT, TT, and Stanford/Nova should all be top 150 opponents. Evansville, playing in the MVC, should have a top 150 RPI, too.

 

HF#1

Schedule seems appropriate for the team we will have. 
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

-Blu

Quote from: jry04 on August 17, 2015, 10:50:53 am
That is actually a pretty decent schedule. I do not know much about these teams moving forward, but I do not think we have any 300+ RPI teams on the schedule, unless Southern is terrible.

Dayton, Wake, GT, TT, and Stanford/Nova should all be top 150 opponents. Evansville, playing in the MVC, should have a top 150 RPI, too.

Yea, this is actually a very solid schedule.  If you can somehow manage to go 11-2 or 10-3 with this non-conference schedule, we should be in a good position heading into conference.  I believe the team with the highest RPI last year on there is Southern University, which had a 228 RPI.  Hopefully they will be a little better this year and make it inside that 200 mark.

jry04

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 11:00:23 am
Yea, this is actually a very solid schedule.  If you can somehow manage to go 11-2 or 10-3 with this non-conference schedule, we should be in a good position heading into conference.  I believe the team with the highest RPI last year on there is Southern University, which had a 228 RPI.  Hopefully they will be a little better this year and make it inside that 200 mark.
Honestly, I could see 10-3 with this schedule. 10-3 would put us in the top 50 RPI entering SEC play, more than likely. I see us winning every home game, Mercer, and then splitting with @ Wake/GT.

Adam Stokes

Loving this schedule. 

Here is an RPI comparison for last season, which ended up giving us a non-con RPI of 15 with a non-con schedule of 47, (remember I loved last year's scheduling by the staff.)  This shows how many teams were in the different RPI brackets.  The 2015 numbers is based of where each team finished last year.

               2014       2015

1-50            2           2         
51-100         3           0
101-150       4           3
151-200       1           5
201-250       0           2
251-300       2           1
300+           1           0

I like this schedule, because had we kept a similar competition as last year I believe our team might've gone 9-4 give or take in non-con play.  We will be better off with this schedule and going 10-3 or better than a schedule similar to last year.  We can guess that this team would have a much more difficult time handling opponents in the top 100 compared to last year's team.  Therefore it is nice that we were able to pull most of those teams and put them in the 100's.  We essentially moved our 51-100 games to the 151-200 range while replacing the terrible teams with better quality. 

My guesstimation is that our non-con SOS will only be slightly worse, (probably in the 70's range,) but we can still very well go 10-3 with this lineup, which will likely still give us a top 50 non-con RPI, which I think with this team is a positive.  Come tourney time we will be in a worse position than last year, because we had a great record vs the Top 50 going in.  This schedule is more to make our numbers look good enough while hoping that the SEC does better as a whole; that way we can still get more Top 50 & 100 matchups. 

My only complaint is that we didn't get any home opponents in the 51-100 range.  Those are games we can win, and we don't have one top 100 team coming to BWA this year in the non-con.  That would've helped out.  Hopefully some teams perform better than last year to improve that part of our resume.  Also hoping we get Stanford in the 2nd round of the NIT. 

Hawg Red

High end for me is 10-3, low end 8-5. I'll split the difference and say we lose every game played outside of the state of Arkansas for a 9-4 OOC record.

Big Nasty 34

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 17, 2015, 11:37:05 am
High end for me is 10-3, low end 8-5. I'll split the difference and say we lose every game played outside of the state of Arkansas for a 9-4 OOC record.

My thoughts exactly

JayBell

Anything better than 8-5 from that would be a great omen for the conference schedule.  If you go into the SEC season with 10 wins, you can wish upon a star for a 20-win season.

Win just 8 from the first 13 and you're looking at 15-16 wins.

jry04

Quote from: JayBell on August 17, 2015, 01:02:37 pm
Anything better than 8-5 from that would be a great omen for the conference schedule.  If you go into the SEC season with 10 wins, you can wish upon a star for a 20-win season.

Win just 8 from the first 13 and you're looking at 15-16 wins.
SEC will be good next year, so it will be tough getting more than 18 wins total, in my opinion.

Atlhogfan1

Nice schedule from the potential RPI/SOS manipulation standpoint.  Good job with this. 

Good brand rebuilding opportunity with the NIT.

I like the series with A10 and ACC programs. 


It isn't going to do much for selling tickets or creating excitement.  Casual fans, not talking about most who post here, aren't going to have their interest raised by the home non conference schedule.  Wake and the two NIT games in Brooklyn will.  Dayton is a good program from a good conference but not a "brand" opponent for the casual fan. 

Good thing UK is in BWA this season to help with season ticket sales.   

When Calipari was at UMass and Memphis, he changed how they scheduled by scheduling more games away from home including neutral court games in order to build up their brands.  He ended our series and called it a regional game which can be understood from his perspective.  He wanted to make the Memphis program seem bigger than a city college with regional appeal and used opponents and venues to help do that.  With UK, he didn't have to but he is still into branding through scheduling.  It is a reason he and Crean disagreed on the IU-UK scheduling.  Cal wanted the games at Lucas Oil to of course make them into an even bigger event.  It isn't only Cal's pitch to recruits over the years about the NBA or his "connections".  He has branded his programs and made them appealing.  He has sold them on programs like UMass and Memphis being "bigger" than they normally are partially by scheduling.   I understand the revenue generated from a home basketball game is needed to help pay for all of the non revenue sports even when we have thousands of empty seats.  But I would like to see us try and use scheduling a little more to help broaden our brand's appeal.  Add another home and home or a neutral court or two matchup every year.   

It is unfortunate we drew TT in the Big 12 challenge.  A matchup, for example, with Drew's undisciplined yet athletic Baylor team in BWA would seem to be more appealing for television and for the conferences. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

poloprince

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 17, 2015, 11:37:05 am
High end for me is 10-3, low end 8-5. I'll split the difference and say we lose every game played outside of the state of Arkansas for a 9-4 OOC record.

12-1 high end, low end 10-3  :razorback:
$PoLoPrInCe$

-Blu

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on August 17, 2015, 03:58:34 pm
It is unfortunate we drew TT in the Big 12 challenge.  A matchup, for example, with Drew's undisciplined yet athletic Baylor team in BWA would seem to be more appealing for television and for the conferences.

I'm glad we got TT.  They should be improved this year and have a decent RPI.  And we will be favored against them and it will be a nice non-conference win.  Baylor or any other top school in the Big 12 might be a stretch.  We could possibly beat them in BWA, however why do that, if our conference is suppose to be stronger, we'll have plenty of opportunities there to get some big wins, let's not kill ourselves in the non-conference. 

 

Hawg Red

Quote from: poloprince on August 17, 2015, 07:01:54 pm
12-1 high end, low end 10-3  :razorback:

That's delusional, IMO. Having lost Portis and Qualls, I don't know how anyone can have any kind of confidence in this team's ability to win away from BWA. And with what could potentially be a lack of an inside game offensively, winning out there in the OOC is in question. Hogs have played some relatively close games at BWA the last two years (Portis years) against what one could call subpar competition. Could easily see us dropping a couple of those this season.

12-1 with this schedule would be a good call if Portis and Qualls had come back. Without them, it's a dream. Arkansas has won 2 games outside of BWA under Anderson without Bobby Portis. 2 games. Lost to Clemson on the road with him and Qualls last year. Wake Forest will be about as good this season as Clemson was last season.

Why stop at 12-1? Why not go 13-0?

ErieHog

That's a steep schedule.  I expect a very slow start next year.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

Big Nasty 34

This would've been a perfect schedule 2 years ago and would've probably gotten us in tourney. This year we need our 13 cupcakes at home like years previous.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 07:25:13 pm
I'm glad we got TT.  They should be improved this year and have a decent RPI.  And we will be favored against them and it will be a nice non-conference win.  Baylor or any other top school in the Big 12 might be a stretch.  We could possibly beat them in BWA, however why do that, if our conference is suppose to be stronger, we'll have plenty of opportunities there to get some big wins, let's not kill ourselves in the non-conference.

I was looking at the matchup from a different perspective.  You make good points in terms of winnable game and RPI. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

-Blu

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 17, 2015, 08:08:28 pm
That's delusional, IMO. Having lost Portis and Qualls, I don't know how anyone can have any kind of confidence in this team's ability to win away from BWA. And with what could potentially be a lack of an inside game offensively, winning out there in the OOC is in question. Hogs have played some relatively close games at BWA the last two years (Portis years) against what one could call subpar competition. Could easily see us dropping a couple of those this season.

12-1 with this schedule would be a good call if Portis and Qualls had come back. Without them, it's a dream. Arkansas has won 2 games outside of BWA under Anderson without Bobby Portis. 2 games. Lost to Clemson on the road with him and Qualls last year. Wake Forest will be about as good this season as Clemson was last season.

Why stop at 12-1? Why not go 13-0?

12-1 is delusional?  If this was last year's schedule with Iowa St, Clemson, and SMU all on the road with this roster, I would agree.  But, the road games are against Wake Forest, GA Tech, and Dayton.  Now Dayton will be really tough, but GA Tech and Wake Forest, that's probably a toss up those teams are pretty bad.  I actually think we'll go 11-2 is Beard and Williams are back. 

Big Nasty 34

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 09:05:59 pm
12-1 is delusional?  If this was last year's schedule with Iowa St, Clemson, and SMU all on the road with this roster, I would agree.  But, the road games are against Wake Forest, GA Tech, and Dayton.  Now Dayton will be really tough, but GA Tech and Wake Forest, that's probably a toss up those teams are pretty bad.  I actually think we'll go 11-2 is Beard and Williams are back.

With most of our scoring reliant upon outside shooting from guards, I am not going to expect much from our early road games. I just don't see Bell and Hannahs being able to carry us on the road. Or really Bell being a consistent duo to Hannahs.

-Blu

Quote from: Big Nasty 34 on August 17, 2015, 09:47:19 pm
With most of our scoring reliant upon outside shooting from guards, I am not going to expect much from our early road games. I just don't see Bell and Hannahs being able to carry us on the road. Or really Bell being a consistent duo to Hannahs.

I wouldn't either.  If Beard is back, I expect Beard, Whitt, and Kingsley to be our "Big 3".

ErieHog

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 10:13:54 pm
I wouldn't either.  If Beard is back, I expect Beard, Whitt, and Kingsley to be our "Big 3".

I think that's a pretty huge if, right now.

I'm not encouraged by anything that's happened this offseason.  I'll be happy with 9-4 in our first 13.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

The_Iceman

Quote from: ErieHog on August 18, 2015, 08:08:07 am
I think that's a pretty huge if, right now.

I'm not encouraged by anything that's happened this offseason.  I'll be happy with 9-4 in our first 13.

If Beard avoids a felony charge, I think he will be back. But probably suspended for a few games.

JayBell

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 09:05:59 pm12-1 is delusional?  If this was last year's schedule with Iowa St, Clemson, and SMU all on the road with this roster, I would agree.  But, the road games are against Wake Forest, GA Tech, and Dayton.  Now Dayton will be really tough, but GA Tech and Wake Forest, that's probably a toss up those teams are pretty bad.  I actually think we'll go 11-2 is Beard and Williams are back.

Very delusional.  Somehow you're still looking at it like this is a good team.  ISU, SMU and Clemson did make up some tough road games comparative to last year's team.  Dayton, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will be tough for this year's team.

You can probably go ahead and mark down Dayton as a loss.  Neither Wake Forest nor Georgia Tech is going to be as bad as they were last year and Anderson's teams ALWAYS struggle on the road.  Villanova or Stanford will be a loss too.  And you like to think Mercer and Texas Tech are guaranteed wins.  They're not.

If Beard and Williams come back, then you can start to hope for 10-3 or 11-2.  12-1 is delusional with or without them.

Hawg Red

Quote from: -Blu on August 17, 2015, 09:05:59 pm
12-1 is delusional?  If this was last year's schedule with Iowa St, Clemson, and SMU all on the road with this roster, I would agree.  But, the road games are against Wake Forest, GA Tech, and Dayton.  Now Dayton will be really tough, but GA Tech and Wake Forest, that's probably a toss up those teams are pretty bad.  I actually think we'll go 11-2 is Beard and Williams are back.

Absolutely delusional, -Blu. Last year's team went 1-2 in that stretch of road games. Clemson last year will be about as good as Wake and Ga Tech will be this year, and we don't have Portis and Qualls this year. For that reason, I do not have any faith that we can win on the road. I have no faith this team will have any interior offense. Where's it coming from? This team is going to rely on scoring from a freshman guard and Anthlon Bell and Dusty Hannahs. Scary. Very, very scary.

This is not going to be a good season (obviously my opinion/prediction). The only thing it'll be good for is experience for the players on the team. We're going to have too many role players playing bigger roles than they're meant for. If Beard and Williams are back, I probably become more firm in that 9-4 OOC record and consider 8-5 a lot less. But neither guy is a scorer and neither guy is going to give us interior offense.

 

jry04

Quote from: Big Nasty 34 on August 17, 2015, 08:44:48 pm
This would've been a perfect schedule 2 years ago and would've probably gotten us in tourney. This year we need our 13 cupcakes at home like years previous.
For the future, I think this schedule will help us a lot. I would rather us play this type of schedule in a year we likely aren't going to be that good. We wouldn't really gain anything from playing 10-12 cupcakes. We would maybe finish the year with 18-20 wins, but have a RPI in the high 80s to low 100s, and still miss the NCAAT. This schedule will give us a similar RPI, but we will get much better experience.

-Blu

Quote from: JayBell on August 18, 2015, 08:42:49 am
Very delusional.  Somehow you're still looking at it like this is a good team.  ISU, SMU and Clemson did make up some tough road games comparative to last year's team.  Dayton, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will be tough for this year's team.

You can probably go ahead and mark down Dayton as a loss.  Neither Wake Forest nor Georgia Tech is going to be as bad as they were last year and Anderson's teams ALWAYS struggle on the road.  Villanova or Stanford will be a loss too.  And you like to think Mercer and Texas Tech are guaranteed wins.  They're not.

If Beard and Williams come back, then you can start to hope for 10-3 or 11-2.  12-1 is delusional with or without them.

You guys acting like if we go 12-1 CMA is going to be up for coach of the year and the whole country is going to think we're a Cinderella team or something.  OMG Mike Anderson pulled huge upsets against the basketball powerhouses of "Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Dayton".  Even with our roster depleted if you lined up the positions and high school ranking side by side with each one of those teams we would have the higher ranking team.  And i'm not saying we'll go 12-1, but to call someone's pick delusional in August when we don't even know who will be eligible and haven't even seen the team play, is a bit much.

The_Iceman

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:13:35 am
You guys acting like if we go 12-1 CMA is going to be up for coach of the year and the whole country is going to think we're a Cinderella team or something.  OMG Mike Anderson pulled huge upsets against the basketball powerhouses of "Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Dayton".  Even with our roster depleted if you lined up the positions and high school ranking side by side with each one of those teams we would have the higher ranking team.  And i'm not saying we'll go 12-1, but to call someone's pick delusional in August when we don't even know who will be eligible and haven't even seen the team play, is a bit much.

sorry -Blu, not seeing the 12-1 thing. Even with Beard and Jacorey, that would have been difficult.

Hawg Red

Quote from: jry04 on August 18, 2015, 09:09:04 am
For the future, I think this schedule will help us a lot. I would rather us play this type of schedule in a year we likely aren't going to be that good. We wouldn't really gain anything from playing 10-12 cupcakes. We would maybe finish the year with 18-20 wins, but have a RPI in the high 80s to low 100s, and still miss the NCAAT. This schedule will give us a similar RPI, but we will get much better experience.

Agreed. The scheduling has been great the last two years, IMO.

Hawg Red

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:13:35 am
You guys acting like if we go 12-1 CMA is going to be up for coach of the year and the whole country is going to think we're a Cinderella team or something.  OMG Mike Anderson pulled huge upsets against the basketball powerhouses of "Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Dayton".  Even with our roster depleted if you lined up the positions and high school ranking side by side with each one of those teams we would have the higher ranking team.  And i'm not saying we'll go 12-1, but to call someone's pick delusional in August when we don't even know who will be eligible and haven't even seen the team play, is a bit much.

I think 12-1 is delusional with Beard and Williams in the lineup, for the record.

And, no, those 3 road games are not against powerhouse programs, but we have a history of losing to schools of that caliber, or worse, without someone like Portis or Qualls. I think this season is going to look a lot like Anderson's first season where we won 18 games and were under .500 in conference play and only won a single road game. I think the talent levels are similar across both rosters.

-Blu

I'm not the person that said 12-1 for the record, I'm just saying calling whoever made that pick delusional is a bit much, considering we don't know who's eligible and who will emerge.  People said we would be bad after Powell and Young left, yet we had guys like Madden and Qualls emerge and we ended up being a 22 win team. 

Anyways We'll agree to disagree on what's delusional.  Me personally I gotta actually see who's eligible then watch them play a few times before I can get a good feel on what's delusional or not.

Hawg Red

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:32:47 am
I'm not the person that said 12-1 for the record, I'm just saying calling whoever made that pick delusional is a bit much, considering we don't know who's eligible and who will emerge.  People said we would be bad after Powell and Young left, yet we had guys like Madden and Qualls emerge and we ended up being a 22 win team. 

Anyways We'll agree to disagree on what's delusional.  Me personally I gotta actually see who's eligible then watch them play a few times before I can get a good feel on what's delusional or not.

Plenty of people could see that we would get better without Powell and Young (I was very vocal in that regard), and a big part of that was Bobby Portis. Portis is gone now. Whitt will be a great freshman, and Kingsley and Beard have potential, but I don't think either one is going to take a step big enough to have the kind of impact Portis did even as a freshman. Kingsley, to me, actually stagnated as a sophomore and that scares me.

When was the last time we went 12-1 in the OOC? I think the answer to that justifies accusations of delusion.

JayBell

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:13:35 am
You guys acting like if we go 12-1 CMA is going to be up for coach of the year and the whole country is going to think we're a Cinderella team or something.

Because that is exactly what the scenario would be.  Nothing is expected of this team, at least not by anyone not on Hogville.  I've seen projections that have Arkansas with 15 wins or less for the entire season.

If Arkansas goes into the conference schedule with 12 wins already, yes, it'll be pretty amazing and Anderson will deservedly garner a lot of early "Coach of the Year" praise.


Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:13:35 amOMG Mike Anderson pulled huge upsets against the basketball powerhouses of "Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Dayton".  Even with our roster depleted if you lined up the positions and high school ranking side by side with each one of those teams we would have the higher ranking team.  And i'm not saying we'll go 12-1, but to call someone's pick delusional in August when we don't even know who will be eligible and haven't even seen the team play, is a bit much.

Why do some people keep acting like recruiting rankings actually mean anything?  Anderson could be expecting four brand new non-Kentucky-caliber players to contribute in his top 10.  Relying on two true freshmen, a JUCO transfer and three other transfers in the top 10 shows poor recruiting.

And if we're going to talk about recruiting, attrition has to be the first thing you look at.  How many of the recruits for the other teams are actually on the team?  For Anderson, he could be without Kapita, Portis, Beard and Babb from the last three signing classes.  A 45% attrition rate is not good for anyone other than Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, etc.

-Blu

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 09:37:23 am
Plenty of people could see that we would get better without Powell and Young (I was very vocal in that regard), and a big part of that was Bobby Portis. Portis is gone now. Whitt will be a great freshman, and Kingsley and Beard have potential, but I don't think either one is going to take a step big enough to have the kind of impact Portis did even as a freshman. Kingsley, to me, actually stagnated as a sophomore and that scares me.

When was the last time we went 12-1 in the OOC? I think the answer to that justifies accusations of delusion.

When was the last time we won 27 games before last year?  How many people made that prediction?  Would you have said winning 27 games last year was delusional?

Every year is a new year with it's own story line.  There's so many unanswered questions with this team, to be honest I'm not comfortable making any predictions at this point, it's all speculation, this team could be really bad and going 9-4 is delusional, we don't know.  All I'm saying is I'm not going to write off anybody's prediction in August when we don't know a lot of stuff about this team. 

Kingsley, was projected by draftexpress to be a second round pick this year, can he live up to those exceptions now that Portis is gone?  Can Beard have a Qualls like jump from Freshman to Sophomore year.  Can Jimmy Whitt have an All-Freshman SEC year?  Can Dusty Hannahs be that consistent 3 point threat we've been waiting on?  Can Trey Thompson emerge as a low post threat?  Can Manny Watkins improve his offensive game and get even better on defense?  Can Jabril Durham play like he did against UNC for the entire season?  Can Bell be consistent?  Can Williams give us an Alandise Harris like senior season? 

These are all questions nobody knows right now in August.  Hence my stance on calling any prediction delusional at this point.

JayBell

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 09:37:23 amPlenty of people could see that we would get better without Powell and Young (I was very vocal in that regard), and a big part of that was Bobby Portis.

Exactly.  I was also very vocal in my belief that Arkansas would get better without Young and Powell.  They were good players, but they were selfish.  And I don't mean they were selfish people or destructive in any way.  They were just ball hogs.  They were the two best players, but once you took away their selfishness on the offensive end and replaced them with better defenders, the team was obviously going to improve.

The equation is much different now.  Portis and Qualls weren't selfish.  Neither was Madden.  They made others around them better.  So not only are you missing their quantitative impact, you lose their leadership and qualitative impact as well.

JayBell

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 09:37:23 amPortis is gone now. Whitt will be a great freshman, and Kingsley and Beard have potential, but I don't think either one is going to take a step big enough to have the kind of impact Portis did even as a freshman. Kingsley, to me, actually stagnated as a sophomore and that scares me.

I think Whitt can be special.  The difference is Portis filled a spot that had been a weakness for Arkansas.  Whitt steps in where the Arkansas is strongest.  Not that Bell and Hannahs are amazing, but they're better than what Arkansas has inside right now.

Though I am more optimistic of Kingsley.  I think the reason he stagnated had more to do with Anderson's poor substitution patterns and a reluctance to have him on the floor with Portis.  Kingsley's minutes actually dropped last season, which definitely should not have happened, IMO.

JayBell

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 09:37:23 amWhen was the last time we went 12-1 in the OOC? I think the answer to that justifies accusations of delusion.

Bingo.  Arkansas just has never been stellar in non-conference play and Anderson's teams have been historically bad on the road.

Hawg Red

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:52:56 am
When was the last time we won 27 games before last year?  How many people made that prediction?  Would you have said winning 27 games last year was delusional?

No, I wouldn't have because I predicted 23 wins going into the SECT because we had an All-American and another All-SEC player.

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:52:56 amEvery year is a new year with it's own story line.  There's so many unanswered questions with this team, to be honest I'm not comfortable making any predictions at this point, it's all speculation, this team could be really bad and going 9-4 is delusional, we don't know.  All I'm saying is I'm not going to write off anybody's prediction in August when we don't know a lot of stuff about this team.

I don't think you're grasping the rationale behind the whole "delusional" thing.

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:52:56 amKingsley, was projected by draftexpress to be a second round pick this year, can he live up to those exceptions now that Portis is gone?  Can Beard have a Qualls like jump from Freshman to Sophomore year.  Can Jimmy Whitt have an All-Freshman SEC year?  Can Dusty Hannahs be that consistent 3 point threat we've been waiting on?  Can Trey Thompson emerge as a low post threat?  Can Manny Watkins improve his offensive game and get even better on defense?  Can Jabril Durham play like he did against UNC for the entire season?  Can Bell be consistent?  Can Williams give us an Alandise Harris like senior season? 

These are all questions nobody knows right now in August.  Hence my stance on calling any prediction delusional at this point.

What's going to change by the start of the season? When will it be safe to lay down expectations?

JayBell

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 09:52:56 amWhen was the last time we won 27 games before last year?  How many people made that prediction?  Would you have said winning 27 games last year was delusional?

No.  I felt Arkansas should have won 25 games the year before because of the talent on the team.

You keep acting like we know absolutely nothing headed into the season.  We know a lot about this team and that's why we're worried.

Hawg Red

I'm fairly confident, without knowing exactly, that my post history supports that I'm pretty good at gauging what to expect from a team in terms of W/L. Obviously a prediction is just a prediction, but there are predictions made with logical (didn't see poloprince provide any, usually never does) and there are predictions made out of one's backside. Bottom line is, if you make a prediction, be prepared to defend it. I am.

-Blu

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 10:06:02 am
No, I wouldn't have because I predicted 23 wins going into the SECT because we had an All-American and another All-SEC player.

I don't think you're grasping the rationale behind the whole "delusional" thing.

What's going to change by the start of the season? When will it be safe to lay down expectations?

Doesn't delusional mean something that is not realistic and never going to happen?  I don't think beating teams you have a better roster than is "delusional" that's just my opinion though.

And I never said you couldn't have expectations, where did you read that at?  I just said, it's a bit premature to tell other posters their expectations are delusional.  And Hopefully by the start of the season you've got a chance to see the team a few times and heard practice reports etc.  I know I usually go to a couple of practices and red/white game before the season starts to kinda see what they are looking like.  If nobody is standing out, and I don't see any improvements, then I can get a better feel for making a prediction, that's just me though, your welcome to make all the predictions you want, just like anyone else.




Hawg Red

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 10:21:46 am
Doesn't delusional mean something that is not realistic and never going to happen?  I don't think beating teams you have a better roster than is "delusional" that's just my opinion though.

And I never said you couldn't have expectations, where did you read that at?  I just said, it's a bit premature to tell other posters their expectations are delusional.  And Hopefully by the start of the season you've got a chance to see the team a few times and heard practice reports etc.  I know I usually go to a couple of practices and red/white game before the season starts to kinda see what they are looking like.  If nobody is standing out, and I don't see any improvements, then I can get a better feel for making a prediction, that's just me though, your welcome to make all the predictions you want, just like anyone else.

Delusional is defined as: having false or unrealistic beliefs or opinions

I think 12-1 is an unrealistic opinion of what could happen in the OOC.

TomBigBeeHog

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 10:48:27 am
Delusional is defined as: having false or unrealistic beliefs or opinions

I think 12-1 is an unrealistic opinion of what could happen in the OOC.

and that is an opinion to which you are entitled. I don't see us going 12-1 in the OOC but I don't think it is unrealistic.
I spent most of my life drankin', gamblin', and chasing women, the rest I just wasted.

TomBigBeeHog

Quote from: Hawg Red on August 18, 2015, 10:48:27 am
Delusional is defined as: having false or unrealistic beliefs or opinions

for me an example of delusional would be a person who believes that they are receiving messages from the neighbors dog telling him/her to kill the mailman or maybe a grownup who still believes in Santa Claus.

Calling another poster delusional seems a bit much. But, that's just me.
I spent most of my life drankin', gamblin', and chasing women, the rest I just wasted.

-Blu

Quote from: TomBigBeeHog on August 18, 2015, 11:22:14 am
for me an example of delusional would be a person who believes that they are receiving messages from the neighbors dog telling him/her to kill the mailman or maybe a grownup who still believes in Santa Claus.

Calling another poster delusional seems a bit much. But, that's just me.

That's what I thought too, delusional is a really strong word.  I guess we have different definitions of it.  I think Hawg Red's definition of delusional is my definition of unlikely.

Here's the official webster definition of delusion.

: a belief that is not true : a false idea
: a false idea or belief that is caused by mental illness

WorfHog

There are just too many unknowns with this team.  Someone might step up or CMA might have them ready to compete. Of course most of you guys don't think CMA is capable and don't think our players are worth the paper their scholarships are written on. 

It's easier to predict failure than to wait and see what happens.  If you're right you can celebrate how bad we are later. If you're wrong you can celebrate the wins.

I'd rather be delusional with -Blu than run down CMA and the team with every post.  Any prediction made today isn't worth the bits it's made off.



Big Nasty 34

If the hogs pull out one road win I will be very pleased. Hold serve as best we can at home and get ready for the future.

-Blu

Quote from: WorfHog on August 18, 2015, 11:44:06 am
I'd rather be delusional with -Blu than run down CMA and the team with every post.  Any prediction made today isn't worth the bits it's made off.

I actually said 10-3 or 11-2 is what I would predict.  I think they were referring to another person saying 12-1 is delusional, I was just saying it's premature to be running down predictions, still a lot of unknowns. 

Anyways, I think this whole topic is starting to go south over the word delusional, that's my bad.  I just thought the word delusional was kinda harsh.  Regardless, I think I've used that word more than I had hoped today, hopefully we hear some more basketball news soon and get some commits, you know it's slow when there's nothing to do but argue about predictions.

hogsanity

delusional may not be the right word, but there has to be something to describe those who are willfully ignoring all that was lost from last years teams, without like talent being there to replace it. There is not Bp or MQ on this team. I am not even sure there is a Madden or Harris.

Whitt may turn out to be secpoty at some point, but lets remember, BP, who won that honor last year, only scored about 12ppg as a FR. If Whitt just matches what Qualls did as a FR or even a soph, this year, that would be fantastic. Expecting him to replace what Qualls did last year is a bit much.  And I have no idea how they will replace what BP did, not scoring, or on the boards, or just his presence. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

PonderinHog

Quote from: -Blu on August 18, 2015, 12:02:51 pm
I actually said 10-3 or 11-2 is what I would predict.  I think they were referring to another person saying 12-1 is delusional, I was just saying it's premature to be running down predictions, still a lot of unknowns. 

Anyways, I think this whole topic is starting to go south over the word delusional, that's my bad.  I just thought the word delusional was kinda harsh.  Regardless, I think I've used that word more than I had hoped today, hopefully we hear some more basketball news soon and get some commits, you know it's slow when there's nothing to do but argue about predictions.
I think the word everyone's looking for is pollyannaish.

-Blu

Quote from: hogsanity on August 18, 2015, 12:05:10 pm
delusional may not be the right word, but there has to be something to describe those who are willfully ignoring all that was lost from last years teams, without like talent being there to replace it. There is not Bp or MQ on this team. I am not even sure there is a Madden or Harris.

Whitt may turn out to be secpoty at some point, but lets remember, BP, who won that honor last year, only scored about 12ppg as a FR. If Whitt just matches what Qualls did as a FR or even a soph, this year, that would be fantastic. Expecting him to replace what Qualls did last year is a bit much.  And I have no idea how they will replace what BP did, not scoring, or on the boards, or just his presence.

I haven't seen anyone ignore anything we've lost.  But, I have seen people ignore the fact the some players can step up.  It happens every year.  And the non-conference schedule is easier than last year as well.  I don't think predicting 10+ wins in non-conference is anything outrageous considering we'll be favored in at least 9 of them.  I would even say we'll be favored in 10, because I think we'd be favored over GA Tech on a neutral court.  Nobody is predicting them as a tourney team, but there are some that think we'll have a shot.