What are your game by game odds for Arkansas this season?

[razorjack12]

The higher the %, the more likely Arkansas will win:

90% - La Tech
45% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
48% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
50% - Ole Miss
35% - @Auburn
45% - Florida
42% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
60% - @ Mizzou

[GuvHog]

90% - La Tech
60% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
55% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
60% - @Auburn
55% - Florida
50% - LSU
60% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

[Inhogswetrust]

I predict there will be a few odd games......................

[Inhogswetrust]

90% - La Tech
60% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
55% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
60% - @Auburn
55% - Florida
50% - LSU
60% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

So you are saying Arkansas will be the underdog and should only lose one game............with that schedule that's a tall order even with a lot of the usually good teams at home.

[HiggiePiggy]

The higher the %, the more likely Arkansas will win:

95% - La Tech
40% - @TCU
100% - Texas State
55% - @aTm
100% - Alcorn State
25% - Alabama
50% - Ole Miss
50% - @Auburn
50% - Florida
50% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
75% - @ Mizzou

[Hogarusa]

The higher the %, the more likely Arkansas will win:

99% - La Tech
23% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
49% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
12% - Alabama
52% - Ole Miss
48% - @Auburn
47% - Florida
53% - LSU
49% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

[GuvHog]

So you are saying Arkansas will be the underdog and should only lose one game............with that schedule that's a tall order even with a lot of the usually good teams at home.

At this time, I have the Hogs projected at 11-1 maximum and 8-4 minimum.

Bama - Loss

LSU - Tossup

A&M, Ole Miss, Florida - projected as narrow wins but could go either way

The rest are wins.

The fact that the Hogs games against their 4 most difficult opponents are all in DWRRS works in the Hogs favor.

[Cinco de Hogo]

The higher the %, the more likely Arkansas will win:

100% - La Tech
55% - @TCU
100% - Texas State
65% - @aTm
100%- Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
65% - Ole Miss
65% - @Auburn
55% - Florida
50% - LSU
65% - @ Miss St
80% - @ Mizzou

I "think" we can win every game but it's unlikely we will so other than Bama several will be toss-ups and I can honestly say right now I wouldn give odds in another teams favor.  Later as the season progresses that will change.

[razorjack12]

The fact that the Hogs games against their 4 most difficult opponents are all in DWRRS works in the Hogs favor.

That could work against us if we lose all four of those games....then struggle to defeat our beatable opponents on the road.

[12247]

La Tech   80%
TCU   40%
Tx St   90%
A&M    49%
Alcorn St.  90%
Alabama   25%
Ole Miss   49%
Aub   40%
Fla    50%
LSU   35%
MSU   65%
MO    65%   

[Talon]

90% - La Tech
60% - @TCU
95% - Texas State
55% - @aTm
95% - Alcorn State
35% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
60% - @Auburn
55% - Florida
50% - LSU
55% - @ Miss St
75% - @ Mizzou

[ceegar]

90% - La Tech
50% - @TCU
100% - Texas State
51% - @aTm
100% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
50% - Ole Miss
45% - @Auburn
51% - Florida
50% - LSU
60% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

[1 hog n eldo]

La Tech   80%
TCU   40%
Tx St   90%
A&M    49%
Alcorn St.  90%
Alabama   25%
Ole Miss   49%
Aub   40%
Fla    50%
LSU   35%
MSU   65%
MO    65%   

35% for Lsu?? You know Leslie Miles is still the coach down in baton rouge right?

[hawg IQ]

gonna say it now, hogs beats Bama this year..write it down somewhere ! but lose early to TCU

[DLUXHOG]

gonna say it now, hogs beats Bama this year..write it down somewhere ! but lose and win early to TCU

FIFY, count on it.....

[Snortingred1]

99.9% - La Tech
65% - @TCU
99.9% - Texas State
65% - @aTm
99.9%- Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
45% - Ole Miss
65% - @Auburn
70% - Florida
85% - LSU
70% - @ Miss St
85% - @ Mizzou

Assuming no probability can ever be 100% in favor or against.  My heart says 11-1, but my head says 7-5.  If this tells you anything, it should be that there are several toss up games that none of us really have a solid footing to throw out a prediction.  It's fun none the less.  I give Ole Miss the edge.  We barely beat them on a "hail mar" of a play.  I think we absolutely handle LSU again.  This is also assuming that AA is starting to put it altogether by season's end.  Miss St was really good last year, but that is last year.  Dan Mullen builds a team once again.  Just not this season, against us.  Also, no Dak.

[Inhogswetrust]

At this time, I have the Hogs projected at 10-2 maximum and 8-4 minimum.

Bama - Loss

LSU - Tossup

A&M, Ole Miss, Florida - projected as narrow wins but could go either way

The rest are wins.

The fact that the Hogs games against their 4 most difficult opponents are all in DWRRS works in the Hogs favor.

How can a 50% win/loss tossup be considered a loss projection.

[GuvHog]

How can a 50% win/loss tossup be considered a loss projection.

You're right, I'll up the maximum to 11-1 and leave the minimum at 8-4. 

[Hawgzinbowlz]

99% - La Tech
51% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
51% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
47% - Alabama
51% - Ole Miss
50% - @Auburn
51% - Florida
55% - LSU
55% - @ Miss St
65% - @ Mizzou


" GO HOGS "

[Dr Carl aka Shorthog]

90% - La Tech
30% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
40% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
10% - Alabama
60% - Ole Miss
40% - @Auburn
50% - Florida
50% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

[Dr. Starcs]

90% - La Tech
45% - @TCU
95% - Texas State
45% - @aTm
95% - Alcorn State
10% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
45% - @Auburn
55% - Florida
55% - LSU
40% - @ Miss St
60% - @ Mizzou

[Smalltownhog95]

Really surprised at the LSU predictions. I think they underperform again this year and we make it three and a row against them. I say 65% chance we win that one.

[fullfan]

Split the TCU and A&M games.  1
Win all 3 non-con games.  3
Win 2 of 5 in the Bama thru LSU stretch. 2
Win final 2 at Miss St and Mizz. 2

8-4.

[hogcard1964]

95% - La Tech
50% - @TCU
99.999% - Texas State
60% - @aTm
99.999% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
60% - Ole Miss
50% - @Auburn
50% - Florida
60% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
80% - @ Mizzou

[Prestworthy]

Miss St should be 75%-80%. Lots of turnover and no Dak. Definitely a rebuilding year for them, as they'll be battling Auburn for the cellar spot in the West.

[HiggiePiggy]

Miss St should be 75%-80%. Lots of turnover and no Dak. Definitely a rebuilding year for them, as they'll be battling Auburn for the cellar spot in the West.

They still have a very good coach and we are going on the road.  We have lost the last 4 years to them. 

[GuvHog]

They still have a very good coach and we are going on the road.  We have lost the last 4 years to them. 

The latter sentence would matter if Miss State had a lot of returning starters but they don't. A head coach can be the best there is but if the talent and experience is not there, he isn't going to win very many games.

[HiggiePiggy]

The latter sentence would matter if Miss State had a lot of returning starters but they don't. A head coach can be the best there is but if the talent and experience is not there, he isn't going to win very many games.

I'm betting they win at least 7 games this year. A good coach doesn't stop recruiting. We don't have a clue how they will be. People can say the same about us since we have lost a lot of starters also. I wouldn't go higher than 50% with them until we actually beat them.

[010HogFan]

90% - La Tech
45% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
55% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
35% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
70% - @Auburn
45% - Florida
60% - LSU
70% - @ Miss St
80% - @ Mizzou

[GuvHog]

I'm betting they win at least 7 games this year. A good coach doesn't stop recruiting. We don't have a clue how they will be. People can say the same about us since we have lost a lot of starters also. I wouldn't go higher than 50% with them until we actually beat them.

The Hogs lost a lot of starters on ONE side of the ball. Miss State lost a lot of starters on BOTH sides of the ball. BIG difference.

[thehill1414]

Really surprised how many think TCU is a coin flip.  Vegas has them at -6, and I think we win 1/3 if we play them there 3 times.

90% - La Tech
33% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
45% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
20% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
45% - @Auburn
60% - Florida
45% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

[GuvHog]

Really surprised how many think TCU is a coin flip.  Vegas has them at -6, and I think we win 1/3 if we play them there 3 times.

90% - La Tech
33% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
45% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
20% - Alabama
55% - Ole Miss
45% - @Auburn
60% - Florida
45% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
70% - @ Mizzou

Vegas doesn't realize how many starters TCU lost from last years team on BOTH sides of the ball.

[DLUXHOG]

Really surprised how many think TCU is a coin flip.  Vegas has them at -6, and I think we win 1/3 if we play them there 3 times.
.............

uhh... we're 43-23-2 against them, looks like historically we've won basically 65% of the times we've played them...........

[ricepig]

Vegas doesn't realize how many starters TCU lost from last years team on BOTH sides of the ball.

Yeah, Vegas doesn't ever know anything about teams, like undisclosed injuries, suspensions, or any other myriad of minute details involving teams.

[redleg]

The higher the %, the more likely Arkansas will win:

90% - La Tech
45% - @TCU
99% - Texas State
48% - @aTm
99% - Alcorn State
40% - Alabama
50% - Ole Miss
35% - @Auburn
45% - Florida
42% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
60% - @ Mizzou

La Tech - 95%
@ TCU - 50%
Texas St - 99%
Texas A&M - 51%
Alcorn St - 99%
Alabama - 39%
Ole Miss - 55%
@ Auburn - 60%
Florida - 49%
LSU - 51%
@ Miss St - 70%
@ Mizzou - 80%
:razorback:

[oldman1015]

Vegas doesn't realize how many starters TCU lost from last years team on BOTH sides of the ball.

vegas says there is a 100% chance you are wrong as always.

[Wildhog]

Vegas doesn't realize how many starters TCU lost from last years team on BOTH sides of the ball.

Sarcasm, Guv? 

[GuvHog]

Sarcasm, Guv? 

Just my way of saying I disagree with Vegas. If I was a betting man (I'm not), that's one I'd jump on in a hurry.

[bennyl08]

La Tech - After a massive qb hit by Wise Jr, Ledbetter will actually record an interception.
@ TCU - A Whaley KR is the only td of the game.
Texas St - Austin will literally be able to count the pass attempts he has in this game on one hand.
Texas A&M -  On a screen pass to Cornelius, Hatcher Jerico Nelson's an Aggie DB.
Alcorn St - Despite Austin's top notch play, Storey's play in the late fourth vs Alcorn's second string will lead to a qb controversy on hogville.
Alabama - Both teams end up passing more than they run in this game. 
Ole Miss - In a close game, Engram tries his own Hail Hunter at the end of the game, but leads to a defensive touchdown for the hogs.
@ Auburn - Auburn yet again throws more int's in the first half than completions.
Florida - Arkansas has more special teams return yards than offensive yards, but manages to sneak out a win with a last second fg following a blocked punt.
LSU - Fournette alone gets 3 times the yards that we've allowed per game all season.
@ Miss St - Statistically, this game becomes easier for us than the La Tech game.
@ Mizzou -  Coaches come up with a play to allow Reed to race Whaley down the field to see who's faster.

[redleg]

vegas says there is a 100% chance you are wrong as always.

Actually, he's right. TCU lost at least 8 starters on offense, and another 5-6 on defense.
:razorback:

[redleg]

La Tech - After a massive qb hit by Wise Jr, Ledbetter will actually record an interception.
@ TCU - A Whaley KR is the only td of the game.
Texas St - Austin will literally be able to count the pass attempts he has in this game on one hand.
Texas A&M -  On a screen pass to Cornelius, Hatcher Jerico Nelson's an Aggie DB.
Alcorn St - Despite Austin's top notch play, Storey's play in the late fourth vs Alcorn's second string will lead to a qb controversy on hogville.
Alabama - Both teams end up passing more than they run in this game. 
Ole Miss - In a close game, Engram tries his own Hail Hunter at the end of the game, but leads to a defensive touchdown for the hogs.
@ Auburn - Auburn yet again throws more int's in the first half than completions.
Florida - Arkansas has more special teams return yards than offensive yards, but manages to sneak out a win with a last second fg following a blocked punt.
LSU - Fournette alone gets 3 times the yards that we've allowed per game all season.
@ Miss St - Statistically, this game becomes easier for us than the La Tech game.
@ Mizzou -  Coaches come up with a play to allow Reed to race Whaley down the field to see who's faster.

LOL!!! 
The only one I disagree with is LSU. The Hogs D has bottled up Fournette for the last two years...and with a much improved defense in 2016, that won't change.
:razorback:

[ricepig]

Actually, he's right. TCU lost at least 8 starters on offense, and another 5-6 on defense.
:razorback:

And...........you think Vegas can't read?

[oldman1015]

Actually, he's right. TCU lost at least 8 starters on offense, and another 5-6 on defense.
:razorback:

but he is wrong saying vegas doesn't know this. they know everything.

[bennyl08]

LOL!!! 
The only one I disagree with is LSU. The Hogs D has bottled up Fournette for the last two years...and with a much improved defense in 2016, that won't change.
:razorback:

He was injured his first year against us so I don't really count that. Second year, he got 91 yards on 4.8 ypc and a td and another 36 through the air for 12 yards a pop. He didn't explode on us for sure, but I wouldn't call that bottled up either.

The reason I made the prediction is based on how much LSU returns this coming season, particularly on offense. Last year, they passed for 60%, 271 yards, and 1 td:1 int. Returning nearly everybody, I expect their passing game to be improved as well as Fournette continuing to improve. So, it will make it much harder to key in on just stopping him. I don't think they'll be passing quite like we were towards the end of last season. However, look at what they had in 2013 with Landry, Beckham Jr, Mettenberger, and Jeremy Hill. Their defense sucked that year due to losing basically their entire 2-deep to the draft, but that was a potent offense.

[GuvHog]

And...........you think Vegas can't read?

Apparently they can't.

[ricepig]

Apparently they can't.

Oh, ok......

[RME]

Just my way of saying I disagree with Vegas. If I was a betting man (I'm not), that's one I'd jump on in a hurry.

After reading through this, I'm hoping you keep it that way

[GuvHog]

After reading through this, I'm hoping you keep it that way

I plan on keeping it that way. I really believe the Hogs will beat TCU by 10 points or more.

[greghog]

80% - La Tech
30% - @TCU
90% - Texas State
50% - @aTm
90% - Alcorn State
30% - Alabama
50% - Ole Miss
40% - @Auburn
40% - Florida
40% - LSU
50% - @ Miss St
60% - @ Mizzou

I didn't put anything at "100%" and rounded to the closest "10%."  Do I think there is a more than 90% chance we beat Alcorn State?  Yes.
I am very worried about this schedule.  I think we go 3-1 in the non-conference.  I think we lose to Bama, Florida and LSU.  I think we beat Missouri.  That leaves A&M, Ole Miss, @ Auburn and @ Miss State to make or break the season.  That is a tough group to "make or break" you. 

If by some chance we beat TCU and A&M, then lookout.  If we lose both those games, look out the other way.

If La. Tech pulls a Toledo?  Really look out, in a bad way.