Yet Another Experts Take According to his Proprietary Algorithm

[Hawgar The Horrible]

http://thepowerrank.com/2016/06/27/finally-college-football-preseason-rankings-for-2016/

[ricepig]

Well, obviously this guy is an expert!

[SRV]

I like this guy's thinking. He seems like some kind of genius to me. 

Woo pig!

[Biggus Piggus]

On Arkansas's schedule - from his rankings:

1. Alabama (home)
3. LSU (home)
8. Ole Miss (home)
10. Texas A&M (Arlington)
21. TCU (road)
23. Mississippi State (road)
28. Florida (home)
32. Auburn (road)
52. Missouri (road)
93. Louisiana Tech (home)
127. Texas State (home)
NR. Alcorn State (home)

The model probably likes the fact that Arkansas's top four games are home or neutral site games. It also probably favors the Razorbacks in all the road games (though TCU and MSU might be toss ups).

Still, it is hard to see how Arkansas should come out 12th when it's probably supposed to lose at least four games.

This guy's work is really impressive. His sole focus is on identifying statistical data sets that predict football outcomes.

His model works with past years' results, returning starters, and turnovers. He adjusts historical results to omit excessive benefit from turnovers. His observation is that turnover margin is a random result, not consistent from year to year. If a team had a hugely positive (or negative) turnover margin in a given season, the model adjusts the team rating to omit the excess benefit.

It is really hard to get clean data on returning starters. To me, the best number would be games started, but I don't know whether that would be more predictive than any other.

People who use "returning starters" generally do it as a binary decision -- whether the team identifies players on its two-deep as returning starters. Qualitatively, returning starters vary a lot.

Did the player start for an entire season, or a few games? Do you count everybody who started any game last season as a returning starter? What if a player started two years ago but missed last season with an injury? Is he a returning starter?

[TUSKtimes]

A lot of variables that he uses are common sense data that most would employ. Bama lost a few starters but returned players who logged quality time. Given he's at 70% success rate and given where we ended up, I can roll with it.

I do think Arkansas is going to scare the pants off some people, even though that doesn't seem to be the overwhelming perspective in hogville. Bielema has been building the program to repeat itself, like the Sparty's Dantonio, and this is the year I think we see that.

[AugustaHog]

Our season will ultimately be decided by how fast we get out of the gates.  If we stumble like we did the last couple years, it will be similar results.  With TCU, TAMU, and Bama on the slate as early as they are, it's imperative that we get these pups up to speed quick.  If our OL comes together and we get solid QB play from Austin, this guy's system makes sense.  We just have to play to our potential.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

On Arkansas's schedule - from his rankings:

1. Alabama (home)
3. LSU (home)
8. Ole Miss (home)
10. Texas A&M (Arlington)
21. TCU (road)
23. Mississippi State (road)
28. Florida (home)
32. Auburn (road)
52. Missouri (road)
93. Louisiana Tech (home)
127. Texas State (home)
NR. Alcorn State (home)

The model probably likes the fact that Arkansas's top four games are home or neutral site games. It also probably favors the Razorbacks in all the road games (though TCU and MSU might be toss ups).

Still, it is hard to see how Arkansas should come out 12th when it's probably supposed to lose at least four games.

This guy's work is really impressive. His sole focus is on identifying statistical data sets that predict football outcomes.

His model works with past years' results, returning starters, and turnovers. He adjusts historical results to omit excessive benefit from turnovers. His observation is that turnover margin is a random result, not consistent from year to year. If a team had a hugely positive (or negative) turnover margin in a given season, the model adjusts the team rating to omit the excess benefit.

It is really hard to get clean data on returning starters. To me, the best number would be games started, but I don't know whether that would be more predictive than any other.

People who use "returning starters" generally do it as a binary decision -- whether the team identifies players on its two-deep as returning starters. Qualitatively, returning starters vary a lot.

Did the player start for an entire season, or a few games? Do you count everybody who started any game last season as a returning starter? What if a player started two years ago but missed last season with an injury? Is he a returning starter?

To me, that is why it is best (even if still flawed to an extent) to determine significant returning starters that are worthy of note, by counting the number of players who had 5 or more starts in the previous season and for purposes of having missed a season due to injury, I take in account who has started over the last 3 years.

It takes a lot of work and patience but that information can be gleaned from ncaa.org

[DadVader1]

Dr. Feng is legit.  His power rating system routinely performs better against the spread than Sagarin.  In 2015, his was one of a fairly small number of power rating systems that showed a profit against the spread & after juice.

[GoHogs1091]

He didn't need to use some complicated algorithm.  It simply boils down to this.  The teams who have all of the following will be the teams who do good (good being defined as winning at least 10 games during the regular season).

A high-level Quarterback
An elite Offensive Left Tackle (an elite Offensive Right Tackle if the Quarterback is left handed)
Two high-level Defensive Tackles
A high-level Middle Linebacker
A high-level Cornerback, particularly the Boundary side Cornerback

The teams who don't have any one of the above won't do as good.

[GuvHog]

I like that he has the Hogs at #12 but I just don't see A&M being that good.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Dr. Feng is legit.  His power rating system routinely performs better against the spread than Sagarin.  In 2015, his was one of a fairly small number of power rating systems that showed a profit against the spread & after juice.

He may be legit, but I'm not sure what he's thinking about TAMU -- ranked above Ohio State?

[hogcard1964]

Interesting.

If I'm counting correctly he has 12 SEC teams in the top 45.

I think he has vastly over-rated Texas A & M.

[Bacon_Bitz]

He didn't need to use some complicated algorithm.  It simply boils down to this.  The teams who have all of the following will be the teams who do good (good being defined as winning at least 10 games during the regular season).

A high-level Quarterback
An elite Offensive Left Tackle (an elite Offensive Right Tackle if the Quarterback is left handed)
Two high-level Defensive Tackles
A high-level Middle Linebacker
A high-level Cornerback, particularly the Boundary side Cornerback

The teams who don't have any one of the above won't do as good.

Haha what a nice troll job.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Tennessee is overrated compared to Arksnsas but it won't show because of the four SECW teams in his top ten.  Nothing is fair in love or war!

[Biggus Piggus]

He didn't need to use some complicated algorithm.  It simply boils down to this.  The teams who have all of the following will be the teams who do good (good being defined as winning at least 10 games during the regular season).

A high-level Quarterback
An elite Offensive Left Tackle (an elite Offensive Right Tackle if the Quarterback is left handed)
Two high-level Defensive Tackles
A high-level Middle Linebacker
A high-level Cornerback, particularly the Boundary side Cornerback

The teams who don't have any one of the above won't do as good.

Sorry, but a lot of teams win 10+ games without having all of those strengths.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

He may be legit, but I'm not sure what he's thinking about TAMU -- ranked above Ohio State?

I know that is hard to imagine, for me too. But I think he may be basing that on the fact that A&M returns a whole lot more production than Ohio State. Ohio State had 12 players drafted (7 in the first 2 rounds alone) and another 3 that went undrafted. 15 players. That might be the reason for his opinion.

[trphog]

He may be legit, but I'm not sure what he's thinking about TAMU -- ranked above Ohio State?

tOSU lost a lot of talent from last year

[trphog]

We conceivably may be the 12th best team in the country. The problem is that we play four other teams ranked ahead of us on this scale.

[GoHogs1091]

Sorry, but a lot of teams win 10+ games without having all of those strengths.

Like with just about everything else, there are the proverbial exceptions.  For the most part though, teams that don't have all of the strengths I listed won't be winning at least 10 games in a season.  The teams that do usually is because they have an extremely weak entire season schedule.  That, and also they figure out how to beat the Toledos, Texas Techs, and Rutgers of the world.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I know that is hard to imagine, for me too. But I think he may be basing that on the fact that A&M returns a whole lot more production than Ohio State. Ohio State had 12 players drafted (7 in the first 2 rounds alone) and another 3 that went undrafted. 15 players. That might be the reason for his opinion.

Maybe.  But TAMU is a team that depends on scoring points, and I don't see how they win games like that with the QB they've got now.

And they have "names" on defense, but their defense wasn't all that good last fall anyway.

And Mike Tomlin is no Urban Meyer.  Not even close.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Maybe.  But TAMU is a team that depends on scoring points, and I don't see how they win games like that with the QB they've got now.

And they have "names" on defense, but their defense wasn't all that good last fall anyway.

No they weren't all that good overall, but I have a lot of respect for Chavis and considering how much they have coming back on defense, in year two under Chavis, I expect them to be improved. They have obvious questions to answer on offense, but their defense might carry them until they get those questions answered.

[GuvHog]

No they weren't all that good overall, but I have a lot of respect for Chavis and considering how much they have coming back on defense, in year two under Chavis, I expect them to be improved. They have obvious questions to answer on offense, but their defense might carry them until they get those questions answered.

With the exception of Chavis, the same description fits the Hogs to a tee.

[bigdaddyhawg]

No they weren't all that good overall, but I have a lot of respect for Chavis and considering how much they have coming back on defense, in year two under Chavis, I expect them to be improved. They have obvious questions to answer on offense, but their defense might carry them until they get those questions answered.

Well, if they are playing that defense killing HUNH baloney, Chavis will have limited impact.

[Biggus Piggus]

Like with just about everything else, there are the proverbial exceptions.  For the most part though, teams that don't have all of the strengths I listed won't be winning at least 10 games in a season.  The teams that do usually is because they have an extremely weak entire season schedule.  That, and also they figure out how to beat the Toledos, Texas Techs, and Rutgers of the world.

Again a gross exaggeration. Please, just look at final standings over the past five years. More teams won 10+ games without meeting your criteria than did.

College football is greatly out of balance. Alabama gets almost 2x as many blue-chip players as average for the rest of the top 25 programs. LSU and Ohio State are more than 50% above average.

In some way, the numbers have to be distorted. Has to be some kind of bias in recruiting ratings, where some of the ratings are benefit-of-the-doubt. How often is a recruitnik going to disagree with the coaches of a big-name program?

Anyway, it's probably impossible to compete against Alabama right now without getting close to their level in recruiting. The more likely event is that Alabama will descend from that unprecedented perch, not that anybody else will climb up there.

Arkansas has to do what it can do. Which isn't "recruit like Alabama."

[Atlhogfan1]

We conceivably may be the 12th best team in the country. The problem is that we play four other teams ranked ahead of us on this scale.

That has been our problem with the polls.

CFN's site has been good about ranking teams based on how they were playing, what they have accomplished and who they did it against vs such an emphasis on records.  One of my biggest complaints in regards to the traditional polls is they rely way too much on record too often. 

[trphog]

That has been our problem with the polls.

CFN's site has been good about ranking teams based on how they were playing, what they have accomplished and who they did it against vs such an emphasis on records.  One of my biggest complaints in regards to the traditional polls is they rely way too much on record too often. 

Good point

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, if they are playing that defense killing HUNH baloney, Chavis will have limited impact.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

My bet is they will try to find some compromise,  just like Gustav has done.

Gus showed that even THE GREATEST DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR IN THE HISTORY OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL could only do so much when your offense runs that ridiculous HUNH.

[longpig]

He didn't need to use some complicated algorithm.  It simply boils down to this.  The teams who have all of the following will be the teams who do good (good being defined as winning at least 10 games during the regular season).

A high-level Quarterback
An elite Offensive Left Tackle (an elite Offensive Right Tackle if the Quarterback is left handed)
Two high-level Defensive Tackles
A high-level Middle Linebacker
A high-level Cornerback, particularly the Boundary side Cornerback

The teams who don't have any one of the above won't do as good.

And a bazillion other variables.  You have a point though, weight these 5 magically well and it'd do as good as most.

[bphi11ips]

We don't need no stinkin' algorithms to know Arkansas is going to be good.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

My bet is they will try to find some compromise,  just like Gustav has done.

Gus showed that even THE GREATEST DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR IN THE HISTORY OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL could only do so much when your offense runs that ridiculous HUNH.

Oh good grief, Muschamp was there for a single season, not long enough to put his stamp on the defense. This will be Chavis' second season at A&M. That doesn't mean that the defense is going to be completely changed but I do believe that they will be improved, better than last year.

[GuvHog]

Oh good grief, Muschamp was there for a single season, not long enough to put his stamp on the defense. This will be Chavis' second season at A&M. That doesn't mean that the defense is going to be completely changed but I do believe that they will be improved, better than last year.

Chavis was at LSU for more than 1 year and even with all of that Louisiana talent available, none of his defenses there were close to the quality of some of his defenses at Tennessee under Fulmer.

[HiggiePiggy]

He had some really great defenses at lsu.  Problem wasn't their defense during his time in LSU. 

[longpig]

He had some really great defenses at lsu.  Problem wasn't their defense during his time in LSU.

True, his worst defenses at LSU were pretty darn good. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Chavis was at LSU for more than 1 year and even with all of that Louisiana talent available, none of his defenses there were close to the quality of some of his defenses at Tennessee under Fulmer.

He had some really great defenses at lsu.  Problem wasn't their defense during his time in LSU. 

True, his worst defenses at LSU were pretty darn good. 

Guv,

Chavis was at Tennessee as the DC for 14 years. Here is his average total defense ranking-#21.7. The percentage of top ten defenses that he produced during that time-28.6%

Chavis was at LSU for 6 seasons. His average total defense ranking during that time-#12. The percentage of top ten defenses that he produced during that time-50.0%

While at Tennessee Chavis only had 3 seasons that he had defenses that ranked about as poorly as the A&M Defense last year (#51) in his first year at the helm. Those teams ranked #45, #50 and #70, all coming during the final 5 years that Chavis was at Tennessee. Take those away and during the remaining 11 years at Tennessee his average total defense rank was #12.6. Beginning to see a trend here?

Chavis has access to a lot of good and experienced talent at A&M right now and while they ranked #51 last year, because of what Chavis has a tendency to produce on average, that's the reason that I think A&M will be very improved on defense for 2016.

[Hawgar The Horrible]

Reminded of this scene almost daily now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpj73xhGvmM

[GuvHog]

Guv,

Chavis was at Tennessee as the DC for 14 years. Here is his average total defense ranking-#21.7. The percentage of top ten defenses that he produced during that time-28.6%

Chavis was at LSU for 6 seasons. His average total defense ranking during that time-#12. The percentage of top ten defenses that he produced during that time-50.0%

While at Tennessee Chavis only had 3 seasons that he had defenses that ranked about as poorly as the A&M Defense last year (#51) in his first year at the helm. Those teams ranked #45, #50 and #70, all coming during the final 5 years that Chavis was at Tennessee. Take those away and during the remaining 11 years at Tennessee his average total defense rank was #12.6. Beginning to see a trend here?

Chavis has access to a lot of good and experienced talent at A&M right now and while they ranked #51 last year, because of what Chavis has a tendency to produce on average, that's the reason that I think A&M will be very improved on defense for 2016.

Oh, there's no doubt in my mind that they'll be improved this season. A&M, like the Hogs, returns most of their starting 11 from last years defense.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Oh, there's no doubt in my mind that they'll be improved this season. A&M, like the Hogs, returns most of their starting 11 from last years defense.

So you have decided that your previous statement about his defenses at Tennessee being a lot better than what he produced at LSU, have been rescinded?

[bphi11ips]

What Chavis does best is gameplan.  And teach pass interference.  Whether A&M gets away with it the way LSU did is the question.

[GuvHog]

So you have decided that your previous statement about his defenses at Tennessee being a lot better than what he produced at LSU, have been rescinded?

Nope, the defenses Chavis coordinated at Tennessee during his best years there were better than his LSU defenses.

A&M will no doubt be improved on defense this season but more because of the high number of returning starters than Chavis's presence as DC.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Nope, the defenses Chavis coordinated at Tennessee during his best years there were better than his LSU defenses.

A&M will no doubt be improved on defense this season but more because of the high number of returning starters than Chavis's presence as DC.

I guess you didn't read the information that I provided for you that refutes that claim.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What Chavis does best is gameplan.  And teach pass interference.  Whether A&M gets away with it the way LSU did is the question.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he produces a top 25 defense this season at A&M.

[longpig]

Nope, the defenses Chavis coordinated at Tennessee during his best years there were better than his LSU defenses.

A&M will no doubt be improved on defense this season but more because of the high number of returning starters than Chavis's presence as DC.

srsly cuz?

[ricepig]

srsly cuz?

Guvermatics....

[bphi11ips]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he produces a top 25 defense this season at A&M.

With the ends and secondary he has he certainly should.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

With the ends and secondary he has he certainly should.

He gets all of his LB's back as well and while they probably won't mirror an Alabama-like LB, they will be more seasoned and experienced. And while you have to figure that this is still a lot of inherited talent and he still doesn't have all of his recruits in place at this point, this group should also be better than they were last season.

The opportunity sets up pretty well for Chavis.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Reminded of this scene almost daily now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpj73xhGvmM

Wich onz is u?

[bphi11ips]

He gets all of his LB's back as well and while they probably won't mirror an Alabama-like LB, they will be more seasoned and experienced. And while you have to figure that this is still a lot of inherited talent and he still doesn't have all of his recruits in place at this point, this group should also be better than they were last season.

The opportunity sets up pretty well for Chavis.

Chavis or not, it's hard for me to forget 1975 when we thrashed A&M's No. 2 ranked defense 31-6.  That defense gave up something like 40 ypg rushing when they played us in the last game of the year.  At least I think it was the last game.  I can still hear "Hey, hey, ho, ho ..."

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Chavis or not, it's hard for me to forget 1975 when we thrashed A&M's No. 2 ranked defense 31-6.  That defense gave up something like 40 ypg rushing when they played us in the last game of the year.  At least I think it was the last game.  I can still hear "Hey, hey, ho, ho ..."

Well, 1975 or not, this is a new year. It's great to remember those good ol times in the SWC, but I am limiting my discussion to what we have to face this coming year. And A&M should be better defensively than they were last year.

[Boardon Hamsay]

I just proprietary algorithm.