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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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yraciv


SPAL

I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.

 

SPAL


widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 16, 2014, 04:05:11 pm
I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.

Me too, it's become the main reason I check Hogville.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 16, 2014, 03:08:16 pm
Purdue +31  2*  WON
Tulane pick 'em  1*  WON
Louisville -7....1*  LOSS
AR +2.5....2*   WON
KY +17.5....1*   WON
Penn St -3....1*  PUSH
WKY +1....1*   LOSS

2014-2015 season
11-13-1 (46%) -$654profit -33% ROI Bankroll $1346


4-2-1 on the week. Only 3 for this weekend, and I doubt I'll add to it.

OU -8....2*
AU -9....1*
NC +3....2*


That OU line seems real fishy to me. Especially considering it opened at 11 and was immediately bet down to 8.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie


Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 04:33:54 pm
We could set up a golf round and gamble our asses off.

Hot springs village? 3 day weekend? One round per day? Split cost of rental?
Let's make some waves.

razorjack12

An interesting stat comparing the 2 deeps for Auburn and Kansas State:

Auburn
28 Four Star recruits
5 Five Star Recruits

K State
0 Four Star Recruits
0 Five Star Recruits

Line Auburn -8 1/2

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 07:46:53 am
Utah is probably my favorite play on the board this week. Waiting to see if it will get higher than 6.

I locked in Auburn at -9.5 yesterday morning. Looks like I should have waited, figured the line would only shoot up. Don't think it will matter, Auburn should run away with it.

I got in at +6 this morning for $300 and saw it is now down to +4.5 and I hate betting games this early but I knew it would start moving.

onebadrubi

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 16, 2014, 04:05:42 pm
We need an "investors convention."

Didn't you mention this in EI during season and we never set it up?

I played in the village today.  Didn't bet but I hit it like crap, so that's good. 

Let's do it quick before hunting season and I'm in. 

Auburn is at -8.5.  I'm gonna wait and see if It can get to -8 so I can buy it down to -7.  The O is a little high but I'd sure love to play it. 

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 16, 2014, 04:05:11 pm
I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.

+1 and ditto.

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 04:08:20 pm
Me too, it's become the main reason I check Hogville.

+1, same here

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 04:09:11 pm
That OU line seems real fishy to me. Especially considering it opened at 11 and was immediately bet down to 8.

I think it has a lot to do with the perception of WV hanging tough with Bama, and OU not destroying UT. I, personally, feel that OU is going to want to put it on WV since they hung within 10 of Bama so that in some roundabout way, Stoops can thump his chest like he beat the Tide again. Again JMO.

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 16, 2014, 04:53:40 pm
Hot springs village? 3 day weekend? One round per day? Split cost of rental?

I'm down to get together, but I don't play golf.

Quote from: razorjack12 on September 16, 2014, 05:13:16 pm
An interesting stat comparing the 2 deeps for Auburn and Kansas State:

Auburn
28 Four Star recruits
5 Five Star Recruits

K State
0 Four Star Recruits
0 Five Star Recruits

Line Auburn -8 1/2

I just don't see any way KSt hangs within 14 of them. Again, JMO, but I don't see the players at KSt being able to handle as physical of a team as Auburn. They run and are powerful when they do it. I don't see a romp like we put on TT, but I don't see this game going down to the wire. Auburn is the real deal. You don't know how much it pains me to be objective against Auburn.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

onebadrubi

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on September 16, 2014, 07:32:55 pm
+1 and ditto.

+1, same here

I think it has a lot to do with the perception of WV hanging tough with Bama, and OU not destroying UT. I, personally, feel that OU is going to want to put it on WV since they hung within 10 of Bama so that in some roundabout way, Stoops can thump his chest like he beat the Tide again. Again JMO.

I'm down to get together, but I don't play golf.

I just don't see any way KSt hangs within 14 of them. Again, JMO, but I don't see the players at KSt being able to handle as physical of a team as Auburn. They run and are powerful when they do it. I don't see a romp like we put on TT, but I don't see this game going down to the wire. Auburn is the real deal. You don't know how much it pains me to be objective against Auburn.

Golf carts are fun to drive drunk.

And on your objective auburn comment, when talkin money it doesn't matter.  We prefer they whoop up on everyone they play here on out

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 16, 2014, 06:00:38 pm
Didn't you mention this in EI during season and we never set it up?

I played in the village today.  Didn't bet but I hit it like crap, so that's good. 

Let's do it quick before hunting season and I'm in. 

Auburn is at -8.5.  I'm gonna wait and see if It can get to -8 so I can buy it down to -7.  The O is a little high but I'd sure love to play it. 

If hunting season comes before golf or football we simply can't be friends :)
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 16, 2014, 07:44:17 pm
If hunting season comes before golf or football we simply can't be friends :)

Golf yes, football no.  The duck club tends to get angry when I mandate the TV be on arkansas killing nichols st.  (opening of dove season). 

Friends buy friends drinks, I don't recall you buying me a drink :)  But lets make this get together happen

widespreadsooie

Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 09:24:54 pm
Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.

WV just lost their starting DB yesterday also, I believe.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

onebadrubi


Porked Tongue


onebadrubi

Quote from: Porked Tongue on September 16, 2014, 10:18:19 pm
http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win

15 game parlay vs the spread?

I hope the guy found a way to bet against himself to offset a chunk of that,

He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 16, 2014, 10:26:21 pm
He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha

Haha, I would have definitely been trying to hedge but sounds like the Delaware Sports Lottery only allows a minimum three team parlay so that would have been mighty tricky.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Porked Tongue on September 16, 2014, 10:18:19 pm
http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win

15 game parlay vs the spread?

I hope the guy found a way to bet against himself to offset a chunk of that,

And I thought I'd had some bad beats. I'd probably cry myself to sleep for a month if I was that close to $100k only to see it taken from me.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 16, 2014, 08:54:44 pm
Golf yes, football no.  The duck club tends to get angry when I mandate the TV be on arkansas killing nichols st.  (opening of dove season). 

Friends buy friends drinks, I don't recall you buying me a drink :)  But lets make this get together happen


Lol I hear ya.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 16, 2014, 09:24:54 pm
Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.

Possible, but since I live in the DFW area!  Well you know.
Let's make some waves.

 

Porked Tongue

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 16, 2014, 10:26:21 pm
He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha

He could have guaranteed himself a big payday.  If it were me, I would have bet $10000 against myself and guaranteed a payout either way.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Porked Tongue on September 16, 2014, 10:59:28 pm
He could have guaranteed himself a big payday.  If it were me, I would have bet $10000 against myself and guaranteed a payout either way.

This!
Let's make some waves.

HogFanInBryant

I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on September 16, 2014, 11:31:51 pm
I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?

It seems like sound reasoning to me.  Wish I could give more feedback.  Totals are probably my week spot.  You would figure Philly scores at least 30 though right?  I dunno. Lol good luck either way Bud!
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on September 16, 2014, 11:31:51 pm
I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?

I'd be hesitant.  Eagles have a pretty good D.  And they have yet to figure out how to score in the red zone or the 1st half.  I took them and the over with the colts with my largest bet ever and hurt barely squeezed by.  Philly got to the red zone 4 times at one point coming away with 6 points total I believe.  Cousins could have a decent day and score 14-21.  I could easily see it being a 13-17 redskins to 21-28 eagles.  You could look at teasing your bet?

widespreadsooie


DadVader1

I finally found some trends that look decent, but several of those picks make me think that we haven't flushed the cupcake effect out of the stats yet.  So far, I've done 1/2 unit each on the following:

San Jose St. +8.5
Virginia +14
Miss. St. +10
GT +8.5
OK -8

The sheets loved Utah State, but Arkansas State's brutal paycheck games have skewed their stats, so I'm passing.  The sheets like Hawaii, Texas A&M, and Rutgers, but they are all pretty banged up, so I'm passing on those as well. They also like Troy, but I just can't bring myself to play one where Georgia will pretty much name its points.  I wanted MO at -14 but the line was at -15.  I'll reassess and may add that later.   

Tai_Mai_Shu

I heard somebody at work said Chuckie Keeton is out for Utah State. I know knee was banged up.

DadVader1

Good catch.  Yep, that game didn't make it close enough to my final cut for me to check injury reports, but this was on one of the sites:

(!)[QB] 09/15/2014 - Chuckie Keeton is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Arkansas State ( Knee )

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 17, 2014, 07:17:40 am
I'd be hesitant.  Eagles have a pretty good D.  And they have yet to figure out how to score in the red zone or the 1st half.  I took them and the over with the colts with my largest bet ever and hurt barely squeezed by.  Philly got to the red zone 4 times at one point coming away with 6 points total I believe.  Cousins could have a decent day and score 14-21.  I could easily see it being a 13-17 redskins to 21-28 eagles.  You could look at teasing your bet?

Thanks for this info...not sure what I am gonna do but it is now up to 51 so we know where the public is going.  What scares me almost out of playing it is that you think there is even a chance it could be a 17-13 game...yikes!

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: DadVader1 on September 17, 2014, 03:08:32 pm
I finally found some trends that look decent, but several of those picks make me think that we haven't flushed the cupcake effect out of the stats yet.  So far, I've done 1/2 unit each on the following:

San Jose St. +8.5
Virginia +14
Miss. St. +10
GT +8.5
OK -8

The sheets loved Utah State, but Arkansas State's brutal paycheck games have skewed their stats, so I'm passing.  The sheets like Hawaii, Texas A&M, and Rutgers, but they are all pretty banged up, so I'm passing on those as well. They also like Troy, but I just can't bring myself to play one where Georgia will pretty much name its points.  I wanted MO at -14 but the line was at -15.  I'll reassess and may add that later.   

I am with you on Miss St +10 but that little voice in my gut tells me they will either win the game outright or get drilled...no in between.  I might take a look at the $ line on this one.  ESPN loves Miss St from all I have seen so far this year and none of them seem to be high on LSU.

Hawgndaaz

Taking Cardinals -155 moneyline for 4 units per a friend that bets a lot of baseball

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 17, 2014, 06:33:01 am
It seems like sound reasoning to me.  Wish I could give more feedback.  Totals are probably my week spot.  You would figure Philly scores at least 30 though right?  I dunno. Lol good luck either way Bud!

I used to not keep up with totals much myself, but last year I made a killing on NFL totals.  It is amazing how often a total that seems really high goes over and a total that seems really low goes under.  Just food for thought.

onebadrubi

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on September 17, 2014, 06:43:21 pm
Thanks for this info...not sure what I am gonna do but it is now up to 51 so we know where the public is going.  What scares me almost out of playing it is that you think there is even a chance it could be a 17-13 game...yikes!

To be exact I am saying the redskins could score 13-17 and the eagles could score 21-28.  If I were to play this game, I'd tease it to widen the spread.  Also, Chip Kelly could get the Offense clicking and put 41 on the seahawks if he needed too.  He's got receivers, backs, and receivers with a good arm'd QB to score.  They just need to show they can score in the red zone consistently, and their kicker is a rookie that was un drafted and tried out for a couple of teams before the eagles signing him. 

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 17, 2014, 08:28:22 pm
To be exact I am saying the redskins could score 13-17 and the eagles could score 21-28.  If I were to play this game, I'd tease it to widen the spread.  Also, Chip Kelly could get the Offense clicking and put 41 on the seahawks if he needed too.  He's got receivers, backs, and receivers with a good arm'd QB to score.  They just need to show they can score in the red zone consistently, and their kicker is a rookie that was un drafted and tried out for a couple of teams before the eagles signing him. 

Ok I misread that.  Makes me feel better for sure. 

widespreadsooie


widespreadsooie


swinemaster

So far I just have a parlay booked for the weekend.

Auburn -9
Pitt -6.5
ECU - 2.5

$50 to win $292.70

I hate to bet favorites but Oh well.

onebadrubi

Quote from: swinemaster on September 17, 2014, 10:09:16 pm
So far I just have a parlay booked for the weekend.

Auburn -9
Pitt -6.5
ECU - 2.5

$50 to win $292.70

I hate to bet favorites but Oh well.

Parlays are nice but I don't have the patience to parlay games not on the same day!  Ha

razorjack12

What does everyone think of a -330 Money Line wager on Auburn?

I just don't see how K State wins this game.   Which is always what I say before making a stupid wager.

onebadrubi

So you'd wager 330 to make a 100?  I personally wouldn't touch that with Monopoly money.  If you're that scared of covering the spread then stay away or find a confident way to tease it (gets it too -2.5).  I'd go drastic and buy it down 2 points at like -170 before I'd hit a -330 money line.  It's college football, Jacksonville st, Appalachian st, vandy to Arkansas a few years ago, etc.  these things happen.  There are obviously enough people betting at Kstate +9 or +8.5 to have kept it from moving, which scares me. 

Hawgndaaz


yraciv

Quote from: razorjack12 on September 18, 2014, 04:36:37 am
What does everyone think of a -330 Money Line wager on Auburn?

I just don't see how K State wins this game.   Which is always what I say before making a stupid wager.

Playing heavy favorites on the money line is always a stupid wager in college football, win or lose.

Hawgndaaz

first half is at -5. I may take that instead of buying it back down to 9. I already have 2 units on Au at 9 from earlier in the week.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on September 18, 2014, 10:19:11 am
first half is at -5. I may take that instead of buying it back down to 9. I already have 2 units on Au at 9 from earlier in the week.

Buying it back down to 9?  Did your book move it too -11?  I can get it at -7 for -150

Actually, I just checked again, I can get it at -7 for -110!!!!!

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 18, 2014, 10:45:09 am
Buying it back down to 9?  Did your book move it too -11?  I can get it at -7 for -150

Auburn just dropped to -8 on mine