Interesting Recruiting Discussion - Barton Simmons - Kendall Sheffield

[31to6]

So Recruiting Nation on the Sirius College Sports channel were interviewing Barton Simmons (Dir of Football Scouting for 247) and he had a very interesting revelation when discussing the Alabama transfer of Kendall Sheffield to JUCO.

Sheffield was a consensus 5* recruit. #4 DB and #20 overall in 247 Composite.

Simmons said [paraphrasing]:

"Sheffield was a 5* that as the season went on you started to get nervous about. He has elite speed and size and his game film was 5*, but as you attended camps he was often hurt in one way or another and never put himself in competition with other top athletes. We couldn't downgrade him because he never gave us a reason we could point to, but we got nervous. He probably should have been a 4*".

One of the hosts of the show asked "did he stay a 5* because he was an Alabama recruit?" which Barton emphatically denied saying "I had these reservations well before he committed to Alabama".

Anyway, interesting discussion about the risky nature of recruiting... even with "cant' miss 5* future NFL stars".

Nice to see Alabama be the one to whiff on a DB for a change....

[colbs]

So Recruiting Nation on the Sirius College Sports channel were interviewing Barton Simmons (Dir of Football Scouting for 247) and he had a very interesting revelation when discussing the Alabama transfer of Kendall Sheffield to JUCO.

Sheffield was a consensus 5* recruit. #4 DB and #20 overall in 247 Composite.

Simmons said [paraphrasing]:

"Sheffield was a 5* that as the season went on you started to get nervous about. He has elite speed and size and his game film was 5*, but as you attended camps he was often hurt in one way or another and never put himself in competition with other top athletes. We couldn't downgrade him because he never gave us a reason we could point to, but we got nervous. He probably should have been a 4*".

One of the hosts of the show asked "did he stay a 5* because he was an Alabama recruit?" which Barton emphatically denied saying "I had these reservations well before he committed to Alabama".

Anyway, interesting discussion about the risky nature of recruiting... even with "cant' miss 5* future NFL stars".

Nice to see Alabama be the one to whiff on a DB for a change....

Even though 5* have a higher rate of being drafted still less than half ever get drafted let alone get drafted in the first two rounds.  The recruiting services are a lot more accurate for basketball.

[Vantage 8 dude]

So Recruiting Nation on the Sirius College Sports channel were interviewing Barton Simmons (Dir of Football Scouting for 247) and he had a very interesting revelation when discussing the Alabama transfer of Kendall Sheffield to JUCO.

Sheffield was a consensus 5* recruit. #4 DB and #20 overall in 247 Composite.

Simmons said [paraphrasing]:

"Sheffield was a 5* that as the season went on you started to get nervous about. He has elite speed and size and his game film was 5*, but as you attended camps he was often hurt in one way or another and never put himself in competition with other top athletes. We couldn't downgrade him because he never gave us a reason we could point to, but we got nervous. He probably should have been a 4*".

One of the hosts of the show asked "did he stay a 5* because he was an Alabama recruit?" which Barton emphatically denied saying "I had these reservations well before he committed to Alabama".

Anyway, interesting discussion about the risky nature of recruiting... even with "cant' miss 5* future NFL stars".

Nice to see Alabama be the one to whiff on a DB for a change....

You mean to say, or at least imply, that Saban and his coaching cast AREN'T infallible? Who the heck would have ever guessed that?

[ricepig]

You mean to say, or at least imply, that Saban and his coaching cast AREN'T infallible? Hey the heck would have ever guessed that?

Dude.......it's just players who didn't buy into the process.......

[31to6]

Dude.......it's just players who didn't buy into the process.......

well, Simmons did say that just because a RS-FR can't crack the depth chart at Alabama it doesn't make him a complete miss... and he has a good point..

but a true 5* should.. clearly he requires more development (physically, skills or mentality??)..

nobody knows why the guy transferred and he's smart not to say.

already a crystal ball for him -> aTm so we may see him back on the field after his JUCO year.

[Pig in the Pokey]

Dude.......it's just players who didn't buy into the process.......

Dude..... It's just recruiting services overranking kids that go to their highest subscription fanbases. ie Bama

[ricepig]

Dude..... It's just recruiting services overranking kids that go to their highest subscription fanbases. ie Bama

Nope, I've listened to Saban numerous times, it's the process.

[ChicoHog]

I listened to the entire segment and it was pretty good.  Rick Nehuheisel, who is really good on TV and the radio, was asking Simmons about the perception that if a player commits with a big name school like Alabama or Ohio st do the stars get a bump.  Simmons was very emphatic that was not the case.  The player in this conversation, Kendall Sheffield, was a 5 star a year before he committed to Bama.  One thing I learned is that 247 sports always has 32 Five Stars so it matches the first round of the NFL draft.  Sometimes there are not 32 guys that should be 5 stars and sometimes there are more but that is their number each year regardless of projected talent.  What I don't know is how many analysts from 247 make the decision on a kids ranking.  Is it 5 guys for example and they take the majority vote?  I don't know. 

[whosiskid]

I listened to the entire segment and it was pretty good.  Rick Nehuheisel, who is really good on TV and the radio, was asking Simmons about the perception that if a player commits with a big name school like Alabama or Ohio st do the stars get a bump.  Simmons was very emphatic that was not the case.  The player in this conversation, Kendall Sheffield, was a 5 star a year before he committed to Bama.  One thing I learned is that 247 sports always has 32 Five Stars so it matches the first round of the NFL draft.  Sometimes there are not 32 guys that should be 5 stars and sometimes there are more but that is their number each year regardless of projected talent.  What I don't know is how many analysts from 247 make the decision on a kids ranking.  Is it 5 guys for example and they take the majority vote?  I don't know.

Just to add, from other interviews and discussions it has been revealed that often players get a 4* rather than 5* rating because they don't physically add up to an NFL 5*. This is why Sosa Agim was a 4* until very, very late in the recruiting year. Even though he is a complete stud and shone on the field both at his school and in combines and all star games, they kept looking at his 6'3 height. Ideally an NFL DE should be 6'5 or 6'6. But finally his performance in his final all star game, where in practices he simply ate alive everyone who tried to block him (in the HS all star games they only allow one on one blocking, so a lot of these kids are not seeing double teams for the first time in a long, long while; to make it worse for the offensive linemen, they don't allow much more than straight ahead blocking, partly because they don't have time to put in anything but the simplest offensive schemes, but this is also why most high school all star games are such low scoring affairs). Point is, if your measurables aren't eye-popping, you are likely not to be as highly rated.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Dude..... It's just recruiting services overranking kids that go to their highest subscription fanbases. ie Bama

Does this mean our recruits every year are underrated?

[theFlyingHog]

Dude..... It's just recruiting services overranking kids that go to their highest subscription fanbases. ie Bama

Real nice sense of humor there chief. Don't bother ducking, it went so far over your head

[Pig in the Pokey]

Does this mean our recruits every year are underrated?

I would say every year we have several players who should be 4*s who are rated 3*s. That's why if I like a kid's video, measurables, and offers, and he is a 3*, I say "That guy is a 4*" and think of them that way. More often than not at least one of the recruiting services will get around to seeing what I saw and give him a bump up to a 4*. Good examples in this class are Dalton Hyatt and Dalton Wagner- both 3* composite but hold a 4th star from at least one service. They are talented and if they have good seasons will probably get bumped. Chase Hayden was another but he showed out over the summer and already has risen to composite 4*.

The way they do stars, the difference between 4th and 5th stars is their pro prospects. As far as what will happen in college, we could only get 4*s and win a national title, no doubt about it.

[MissippHog]

One thing I learned is that 247 sports always has 32 Five Stars so it matches the first round of the NFL draft.  Sometimes there are not 32 guys that should be 5 stars and sometimes there are more but that is their number each year regardless of projected talent.

That alone shows that it is a flawed and imprecise system, IMO. 

[Pig in the Pokey]

That alone shows that it is a flawed and imprecise system, IMO.

yep.
And we all know it's BS that the subscription-base recruiting bump isn't a thing.

[LJHOG]

That alone shows that it is a flawed and imprecise system, IMO. 

Of course it is and always has been.  If it was perfect, then every 5* would wind up being an NFL pro-bowler.

[31to6]

Of course it is and always has been.  If it was perfect, then every 5* would wind up being an NFL pro-bowler.

The rankings are statistically valid but not predictive at the level of an individual athlete. If you have to pick a team at random, you would *always* be better off randomly drawing names from the 5* bucket than the 3* bucket.

It is incontestable that highly ranked athletes contribute earlier and at a higher level in college and are more like to go to the NFL and excel there.

However, it is also incontestable that every year there are underrated recruits who outperform higher ranked peers and who eventually reach the pinnacle of success in their careers.

Another important factor is that an exceptional college athlete might not excel in the NFL. This is not because they were not good, but you have to be amazing to succeed in the NFL if you are not the right height/weight/speed for the game. Tweeners can be college All-Americans who help their teams win a lot of games but still wash out of the NFL (or even go undrafted).

Fit and need also very important. A 3* athlete that fits your scheme can be more important than adding a 4* that you will struggle to incorporate. If you need a fullback, you might not be able to get one of the very rare FB who come from high school highly rated. So that 3* FB may be very important to building your roster even though adding another 4* WR would boost your class ranking. If you *really* need depth at DL, getting some bodies the right size can be much more important than stacking another highly rated RB (of which there are dozens every year because the most athletic HS players gravitate to the skill positions).

Rankings are valid. But recruiting is both art and science.

[greenie]

The rankings are statistically valid but not predictive at the level of an individual athlete. If you have to pick a team at random, you would *always* be better off randomly drawing names from the 5* bucket than the 3* bucket.

It is incontestable that highly ranked athletes contribute earlier and at a higher level in college and are more like to go to the NFL and excel there.

However, it is also incontestable that every year there are underrated recruits who outperform higher ranked peers and who eventually reach the pinnacle of success in their careers.

Another important factor is that an exceptional college athlete might not excel in the NFL. This is not because they were not good, but you have to be amazing to succeed in the NFL if you are not the right height/weight/speed for the game. Tweeners can be college All-Americans who help their teams win a lot of games but still wash out of the NFL (or even go undrafted).

Fit and need also very important. A 3* athlete that fits your scheme can be more important than adding a 4* that you will struggle to incorporate. If you need a fullback, you might not be able to get one of the very rare FB who come from high school highly rated. So that 3* FB may be very important to building your roster even though adding another 4* WR would boost your class ranking. If you *really* need depth at DL, getting some bodies the right size can be much more important than stacking another highly rated RB (of which there are dozens every year because the most athletic HS players gravitate to the skill positions).

Rankings are valid. But recruiting is both art and science.

This is good stuff right here ^^^^^

Recruiting, in the end, is a gamble.  The goal is to minimize your risk and maximize your return.  There are no absolute guarantees.

Aside: it appears to me that CBB is wary of 5* recruits.  He doesn't appear to spend much time pursuing many of them.  Do I have the wrong impression?

[Bubba's Bruisers]

That alone shows that it is a flawed and imprecise system, IMO. 

This is widely understood.

Aside: it appears to me that CBB is wary of 5* recruits.  He doesn't appear to spend much time pursuing many of them.  Do I have the wrong impression?

It might be that he doesn't waste too much time with players he doesn't think he has any chance at signing.  We don't get many serious looks from 5 stars in general, so he's probably very particular about who's worthy his time.