Redbird Rundown VII

[pigture perfect]

Kimbrel is good, but he is not $42 million good. He is the best closer in the game right now, but he has more than likely peaked, sorry UCA, I usually agree baseball wise with you, but he is not the best by far, just slightly over Rosie and a few others

[ucahogfan]

Kimbrel is good, but he is not $42 million good. He is the best closer in the game right now, but he has more than likely peaked, sorry UCA, I usually agree baseball wise with you, but he is not the best by far, just slightly over Rosie and a few others

Kimbrel had the best season EVER by a closer in 2012.  The numbers will back that up.  Many experts expected him to drop off in 2013, but guess what, he was just as dominate in 2013 after struggling a little very early in the season.  He has finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting in the last 3 years and top 5 each of the last 2 seasons and should have won one in 2012.

Over the last 2 seasons, Kimbrel has 92 S and a 1.11 ERA.  His WHIP is .771 and his SO/BB is 6.29.

And how can someone who is only 25 peak?  Kimbrel is a unique situation because there has never been someone come and up and dominate right away in the closer role like Kimbrel has.  He is only 2 years older than Rosenthal and to even put them close to the same level or any closer close to Kimbrel is just plain homerism.  As a Braves fan, that would be like me saying that Julio Teheran is close to the same level as Kershaw even though I know it isn't true.

[Baseball Hog]

Kimbrel is good, but he is not $42 million good. He is the best closer in the game right now, but he has more than likely peaked, sorry UCA, I usually agree baseball wise with you, but he is not the best by far, just slightly over Rosie and a few others

lol

Kimbrel is doing things never been done before.  mlbtraderumors tried to judge his arbitration value and he broke their algorithm.

We all know Cards fans love to be homers but, c'mon man!

[jrulz83]

lol

Kimbrel is doing things never been done before.  mlbtraderumors tried to judge his arbitration value and he broke their algorithm.

We all know Cards fans love to be homers but, c'mon man!

Kimbrel had the best season EVER by a closer in 2012.  The numbers will back that up.  Many experts expected him to drop off in 2013, but guess what, he was just as dominate in 2013 after struggling a little very early in the season.  He has finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting in the last 3 years and top 5 each of the last 2 seasons and should have won one in 2012.

Over the last 2 seasons, Kimbrel has 92 S and a 1.11 ERA.  His WHIP is .771 and his SO/BB is 6.29.

And how can someone who is only 25 peak?  Kimbrel is a unique situation because there has never been someone come and up and dominate right away in the closer role like Kimbrel has.  He is only 2 years older than Rosenthal and to even put them close to the same level or any closer close to Kimbrel is just plain homerism.  As a Braves fan, that would be like me saying that Julio Teheran is close to the same level as Kershaw even though I know it isn't true.

What I'm trying to figure out is why Braves fans are in a Cardinals thread and surprised that they find Cardinals homers?  I mean, really?

Kimbrel is good. Very good, no doubt the best closer in baseball. However, paying $10 mil a year for a closer has, in the past, proven foolish. I wouldn't give Kershaw $30 mil either. $30 million a year to somebody who is projected to play in maybe %20 of your games is, to me stupid. A position player that is projected to appear in %95 of your games is a different story.

As for Rosenthal vs. Kimbrel, could Rosenthal put up similar numbers? Yes, he has the talent. Has he put the numbers up? No, he hasn't had the opportunity to. It will be interesting to see where he winds up after a whole season of closing. I'm hoping he's the new Craig Kimbrel.

[Baseball Hog]

What I'm trying to figure out is why Braves fans are in a Cardinals thread and surprised that they find Cardinals homers?  I mean, really?

Kimbrel is good. Very good, no doubt the best closer in baseball. However, paying $10 mil a year for a closer has, in the past, proven foolish. I wouldn't give Kershaw $30 mil either. $30 million a year to somebody who is projected to play in maybe %20 of your games is, to me stupid. A position player that is projected to appear in %95 of your games is a different story.

As for Rosenthal vs. Kimbrel, could Rosenthal put up similar numbers? Yes, he has the talent. Has he put the numbers up? No, he hasn't had the opportunity to. It will be interesting to see where he winds up after a whole season of closing. I'm hoping he's the new Craig Kimbrel.

Neither UCA or me is surprised to see homerism from Cardinal nation, believe me.

It's just somewhat insulting to read "He might be the best closer in the game this year."  I think it's just as likely that he is pitching in Memphis in September as being the best closer in baseball.

[jrulz83]

Neither UCA or me is surprised to see homerism from Cardinal nation, believe me.

It's just somewhat insulting to read "He might be the best closer in the game this year."  I think it's just as likely that he is pitching in Memphis in September as being the best closer in baseball.

Okay, that's fine with me if you think that. Not insulting to me one bit. It's your opinion and you're entitled to it, even if I disagree. My thing is, this is a CARDINALS thread. To be insulted by something that a fan of a team posts in their team thread about one of their teams' players is, to me "somewhat" ridiculous.

[Ray Piggers]

Neither UCA or me is surprised to see homerism from Cardinal nation, believe me.

It's just somewhat insulting to read "He might be the best closer in the game this year."  I think it's just as likely that he is pitching in Memphis in September as being the best closer in baseball.

Haha, but that's just it. He MIGHT be. No one knows. Speculation, Homes.

Kimbrel MIGHT be
Huston Street MIGHT be
Aroldis Chapman MIGHT be.

You see how easy it is to speculate?

[ucahogfan]

Haha, but that's just it. He MIGHT be. No one knows. Speculation, Homes.

Kimbrel MIGHT be
Huston Street MIGHT be
Aroldis Chapman MIGHT be.

You see how easy it is to speculate?

Except in this case, Kimbrel is CLEARLY the best closer in the game.

What I'm trying to figure out is why Braves fans are in a Cardinals thread and surprised that they find Cardinals homers?  I mean, really?

Kimbrel is good. Very good, no doubt the best closer in baseball. However, paying $10 mil a year for a closer has, in the past, proven foolish. I wouldn't give Kershaw $30 mil either. $30 million a year to somebody who is projected to play in maybe %20 of your games is, to me stupid. A position player that is projected to appear in %95 of your games is a different story.

As for Rosenthal vs. Kimbrel, could Rosenthal put up similar numbers? Yes, he has the talent. Has he put the numbers up? No, he hasn't had the opportunity to. It will be interesting to see where he winds up after a whole season of closing. I'm hoping he's the new Craig Kimbrel.

Cards fans also pride themselves on being the best baseball fans in general and saying such outrageous things as Rosenthal possibly being the best closer in the game doesn't back that up.  The only decent example I could think of with Braves players is saying that Jason Heyward could possibly be the best OF in the MLB this year even over Mike Trout.  Would I even think to rationally say that?  No, even as a huge Braves fan.  Everyone knows that Mike Trout is the best player in the game and has a huge gap on the 2nd best much like Craig Kimbrel does as a closer.

And when giving contracts, I think a team should pay for WAR.  By your estimation, it would be wiser for the Yankees to give Ellsbury the huge contract they gave him when he is quickly getting past his peak and has been worth less WAR than Kimbrel over the last 2 years than giving a beyond dominate 25 year old closer with no injury history a big contract.

As I've said, Kimbrel has posted 3.3 WAR each of the last 2 years.  Pretty sure 1 WAR was valued at about 6 million on the free agency market this year which means Kimbrel would be worth about 20 million per year at the same level while the Braves are getting him for about half.  How is that not a good deal for both parties?  Kimbrel will get 55 mil over 5 years while the Braves keep the best closer in the game a Brave for the peak of his career.

[jrulz83]

Except in this case, Kimbrel is CLEARLY the best closer in the game.
Cards fans also pride themselves on being the best baseball fans in general and saying such outrageous things as Rosenthal possibly being the best closer in the game doesn't back that up.  The only decent example I could think of with Braves players is saying that Jason Heyward could possibly be the best OF in the MLB this year even over Mike Trout.  Would I even think to rationally say that?  No, even as a huge Braves fan.  Everyone knows that Mike Trout is the best player in the game and has a huge gap on the 2nd best much like Craig Kimbrel does as a closer.

And when giving contracts, I think a team should pay for WAR.  By your estimation, it would be wiser for the Yankees to give Ellsbury the huge contract they gave him when he is quickly getting past his peak and has been worth less WAR than Kimbrel over the last 2 years than giving a beyond dominate 25 year old closer with no injury history a big contract.

As I've said, Kimbrel has posted 3.3 WAR each of the last 2 years.  Pretty sure 1 WAR was valued at about 6 million on the free agency market this year which means Kimbrel would be worth about 20 million per year at the same level while the Braves are getting him for about half.  How is that not a good deal for both parties?  Kimbrel will get 55 mil over 5 years while the Braves keep the best closer in the game a Brave for the peak of his career.

Just for reference, I'm probably the only Cardinals fan that got tired of and started dry heaving every time I heard the media talk about the "Cardinal Way" last year. LOL

Your example of Ellsbury doesn't wash because he is a player that is past his prime. Of course Ellsbury isn't worth that, that's a lame argument. You're comparing a prime Kimbrel to an elderly, creaky knee center fielder, really? Boy, my argument must have been good if that is the best you have.

The Heyward example isn't decent because Heyward has a track record that proves he isn't going to be the best player. Rosenthal has never spent a full season as closer. He has no track record to disprove that he could be a very, very good closer. He could be just as good as Kimbrel in his first season. Rosenthal could fizz out. That's the thing, we don't know. Kimbrel may tear his ulnar collateral ligament, so could Rosenthal.

[ucahogfan]

Just for reference, I'm probably the only Cardinals fan that got tired of and started dry heaving every time I heard the media talk about the "Cardinal Way" last year. LOL

Your example of Ellsbury doesn't wash because he is a player that is past his prime. Of course Ellsbury isn't worth that, that's a lame argument. You're comparing a prime Kimbrel to an elderly, creaky knee center fielder, really? Boy, my argument must have been good if that is the best you have.

The Heyward example isn't decent because Heyward has a track record that proves he isn't going to be the best player. Rosenthal has never spent a full season as closer. He has no track record to disprove that he could be a very, very good closer. He could be just as good as Kimbrel in his first season. Rosenthal could fizz out. That's the thing, we don't know. Kimbrel may tear his ulnar collateral ligament, so could Rosenthal.

I think the Cards are one of the two best run organizations in baseball along with the Braves.  Neither have unlimited pockets, but yet both teams are constantly at the top of the game year in and year out because of savvy business moves and excellent player development.  The Braves have been very stingy with their spending, but have opened it way up in the last couple of weeks locking up our young core.  I would expect long term extensions are in the works for Simmons, Minor, and Medlen as well.

There isn't a great example because Kimbrel is a very unique situation.  Heck, the As are paying Jim Johnson like 10 million this year to be their closer.  The Orioles were going to pay like 7-8 million for Grant Balfour who has had 1 year at closer.  Fernando Rodney was projected to get like 10-12 million a year when he was way past his prime and coming off a bad year.  Are those better examples?

And both Heyward and Rosenthal are going into their age 24 season as crazy as it might seem.  Heyward is like 9 months older, but their birthdays are at a time when both will be in their age 24 seasons.  For all we know, this could be the year that Heyward puts it all together and shows the 40 HR power that has been projected.  He has also battled injures in his career and if he stays healthy (big if), he did an excellent job in the leadoff hole when Freddie G moved him there.  Rosenthal has a live fastball, but if I remember correctly, was really the only pitch he used last year.  Rosenthal could be something special just like Heyward.  Both are still young enough where they can realize their full potential.  At least the Braves know they are getting one of the best defensive RFs who will save something like 20 runs out there this year.

[jrulz83]

I think the Cards are one of the two best run organizations in baseball along with the Braves.  Neither have unlimited pockets, but yet both teams are constantly at the top of the game year in and year out because of savvy business moves and excellent player development.  The Braves have been very stingy with their spending, but have opened it way up in the last couple of weeks locking up our young core.  I would expect long term extensions are in the works for Simmons, Minor, and Medlen as well.

There isn't a great example because Kimbrel is a very unique situation.  Heck, the As are paying Jim Johnson like 10 million this year to be their closer.  The Orioles were going to pay like 7-8 million for Grant Balfour who has had 1 year at closer.  Fernando Rodney was projected to get like 10-12 million a year when he was way past his prime and coming off a bad year.  Are those better examples?

And both Heyward and Rosenthal are going into their age 24 season as crazy as it might seem.  Heyward is like 9 months older, but their birthdays are at a time when both will be in their age 24 seasons.  For all we know, this could be the year that Heyward puts it all together and shows the 40 HR power that has been projected.  He has also battled injures in his career and if he stays healthy (big if), he did an excellent job in the leadoff hole when Freddie G moved him there.  Rosenthal has a live fastball, but if I remember correctly, was really the only pitch he used last year.  Rosenthal could be something special just like Heyward.  Both are still young enough where they can realize their full potential.  At least the Braves know they are getting one of the best defensive RFs who will save something like 20 runs out there this year.

I really wanted a Braves/Cardinals NLCS last year. I hope it happens this year, they are both shrewd and classy organizations that definitely mirror each other. It would make for a very interesting series.

I will say that if I had to pay a closer that kind of money, Kimbrel over Rodney is a no doubter. I've never disputed that Kimbrel is really good. I just don't agree with paying big money for a closer. Call me old school. It does appear that contracts are headed that way though, so I may be eating my words when Rosenthal or whoever the Cardinals have at closer comes up for a contract. I  just don't agree with paying any closer $10+ million, it hasn't worked out for teams in the past. That said, if that is what a team thinks is the thing to do, I have to trust their expertise over mine. (LOL Like I have any expertise! LOL)

Rosenthal has a supposedly pretty good changeup. It's hard to argue with the approach that they used with his fastball, but I agree with where you're going with that. He has to have something else.

[ucahogfan]

I really wanted a Braves/Cardinals NLCS last year. I hope it happens this year, they are both shrewd and classy organizations that definitely mirror each other. It would make for a very interesting series.

I will say that if I had to pay a closer that kind of money, Kimbrel over Rodney is a no doubter. I've never disputed that Kimbrel is really good. I just don't agree with paying big money for a closer. Call me old school. It does appear that contracts are headed that way though, so I may be eating my words when Rosenthal or whoever the Cardinals have at closer comes up for a contract. I  just don't agree with paying any closer $10+ million, it hasn't worked out for teams in the past. That said, if that is what a team thinks is the thing to do, I have to trust their expertise over mine. (LOL Like I have any expertise! LOL)

Rosenthal has a supposedly pretty good changeup. It's hard to argue with the approach that they used with his fastball, but I agree with where you're going with that. He has to have something else.

I'm more of the new school approach who greatly values WAR and will pay players accordingly.  One example would be how much more I would pay Trout than Miggy.  Trout has been worth about 10 WAR his 2 full seasons in the league while Miggy has been worth about 7 WAR at his peak the last couple years.  Trout is worth about 3 more wins per season than Miggy.  If one WAR is valued at about 6 mil, then that means Trout is worth 18 mil more per year than Miggy or just about anyone else in baseball.  Am I saying that I would pay Trout 60 million per year?  Well, I'm not really sure, but I do know that when Trout signs his big contract, it will smash the record book.

With how valuable and rare proven closers are, I'm not surprised at the type of money they are getting.  A great closer like a Mo or a Kimbrel can put a manager at ease knowing that a lead going into the 9th inning is going to be safe more than 95% of the time.  That is worth a lot of money IMO.

The two best closers in the game both made their career on one pitch, but that pitch would be on the Mount Rushmore of nastiest pitches.  Mo's cutter and Hoffman's change were both lethal.  I just don't think a closer can be fully effective if he just has a fastball even if it is 105 like Chapman.  Part of what makes Kimbrel so great is a 100 MPH fastball to go along with a plus plus slider.

[jrulz83]

I'm more of the new school approach who greatly values WAR and will pay players accordingly.  One example would be how much more I would pay Trout than Miggy.  Trout has been worth about 10 WAR his 2 full seasons in the league while Miggy has been worth about 7 WAR at his peak the last couple years.  Trout is worth about 3 more wins per season than Miggy.  If one WAR is valued at about 6 mil, then that means Trout is worth 18 mil more per year than Miggy or just about anyone else in baseball.  Am I saying that I would pay Trout 60 million per year?  Well, I'm not really sure, but I do know that when Trout signs his big contract, it will smash the record book.

With how valuable and rare proven closers are, I'm not surprised at the type of money they are getting.  A great closer like a Mo or a Kimbrel can put a manager at ease knowing that a lead going into the 9th inning is going to be safe more than 95% of the time.  That is worth a lot of money IMO.

The two best closers in the game both made their career on one pitch, but that pitch would be on the Mount Rushmore of nastiest pitches.  Mo's cutter and Hoffman's change were both lethal.  I just don't think a closer can be fully effective if he just has a fastball even if it is 105 like Chapman.  Part of what makes Kimbrel so great is a 100 MPH fastball to go along with a plus plus slider.

Moreno might be dumb enough to give $60 million per to one player, but the onerous Pujols contract might affect whether he does or not. I'm so glad the Cardinals stood firm on that one, even if Pujols has an MVP year. He isn't going to be worth it when he's 43, no way. Trout is going to get something ridiculous and he will probably be worth it.

It's just my opinion that the closer is one of the most overrated and overvalued positions in baseball. This article is dated, but it sums up my thoughts on the closer position. I'm sure you won't agree if you read it: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1594716

You are absolutely correct about closers needing secondary pitches, eventually hitters will catch a fastball. Even if you just throw it once out of 20 pitches, some kind of change of pace has to be used to throw the timing off or hitters will catch up with you.

[ucahogfan]

Moreno might be dumb enough to give $60 million per to one player, but the onerous Pujols contract might affect whether he does or not. I'm so glad the Cardinals stood firm on that one, even if Pujols has an MVP year. He isn't going to be worth it when he's 43, no way. Trout is going to get something ridiculous and he will probably be worth it.

It's just my opinion that the closer is one of the most overrated and overvalued positions in baseball. This article is dated, but it sums up my thoughts on the closer position. I'm sure you won't agree if you read it: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1594716

You are absolutely correct about closers needing secondary pitches, eventually hitters will catch a fastball. Even if you just throw it once out of 20 pitches, some kind of change of pace has to be used to throw the timing off or hitters will catch up with you.

Weren't the Cardinals going to offer Pujols about 25 a year, but over a much shorter time period?  I don't think anyone could have seen Pujols drop off this much.  There has been talk that the Angels should offer Trout a 12/400 deal and they would probably get their money's worth out of it.

Thanks for posting the article.  I do think that some closers are overvalued, but closers like Kimbrel, Hoffman, Mo, and Wagner who did it year after year can be huge for a team.  The only problem is that there might be 2-3 great closers at any one time and if you have one you should lock it up much like the Yankees did with Mo for his career.

I think the most important thing for a closer to have is an out pitch.  It would seem like Rosenthal has one with his electric fastball, but he also needs another pitch to set that one up.

[jrulz83]

Weren't the Cardinals going to offer Pujols about 25 a year, but over a much shorter time period?  I don't think anyone could have seen Pujols drop off this much.  There has been talk that the Angels should offer Trout a 12/400 deal and they would probably get their money's worth out of it.

Thanks for posting the article.  I do think that some closers are overvalued, but closers like Kimbrel, Hoffman, Mo, and Wagner who did it year after year can be huge for a team.  The only problem is that there might be 2-3 great closers at any one time and if you have one you should lock it up much like the Yankees did with Mo for his career.

I think the most important thing for a closer to have is an out pitch.  It would seem like Rosenthal has one with his electric fastball, but he also needs another pitch to set that one up.

I believe they offered Pujols 5 years at $25 million per. He wanted 10. I thought it was a pretty good offer considering his "age". I've always believed he was older than is stated. I can't back that up with any worthwhile argument or evidence, it's just something I have always questioned.

Trout and Kimbrel have been so successful at such an early age. A Trout deal is going to break every record and will probably be the only one that I would agree with. They're paying for his best years, not his declining years.

That was my problem with the Pujols deal, you would be paying him for past production because the decline had begun. His walk rate was down, strikeouts were up, he had lingering elbow and foot problems. It all worked together to cause his shockingly sharp decline. I'm not saying he's done, he's just not 25 anymore.

I would agree that if I had a young Trevor Hoffman as closer, I would probably want him locked up long term. It's just a risky deal to me, but I would much rather risk $42 million on Kimbrel than $300 million on a clearly declining superstar.

You are absolutely correct. Closers need a setup pitch to their out pitch. A coach always told me the 3 rules of pitching: 1. Throw strikes 2. Work in a hurry (rhythm)  3. Change speeds He attributed those to Dizzy Dean. Changing speeds is so important; especially at MLB level. Those hitters are so good that if they see enough of your fastball they will eventually catch it, it cannot be thrown hard enough. You have to do something to keep them off balance.

[pigture perfect]

Just got my Cards schedule and it sure seems like we play the Reds every other week in April and May.

[dhornjr1]

No Jaime Garcia again this year.

[McKdaddy]

Not yet, on Garcia.

[McKdaddy]

Goold tweet:

Garcia will receive a cortisone injection, rest a few days, and give it week. Structure fine, Mozeliak says. #stlcards #cardinals

[McKdaddy]

More from Goold:

But, this is new norm for Garcia. "The days of feeling perfect are over," Mozeliak said of the lefty returning to pitch #stlcards #cardinals

[McKdaddy]

More Garcia....

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/article_d0c8ee45-bb54-5efe-a218-67996d9e16a8.html

[jrulz83]

Well, the rotation has begun shaping itself. I hate it for Garcia, I had hoped he could recover and pitch well this year. He still may, but I have serious doubts about him having much impact this year. At least it is just inflammation and his shoulder is structurally sound.

Who takes the spot: Kelly, Lyons, or Martinez? I bet Kelly; with Lyons at AAA as the "sixth starter" and Martinez handling the eighth in St. Louis.

[McKdaddy]

Don't get me wrong, this certainly doesn't bode well for Garcia given the injury history AND I'm not holding my breath on him being healthy this season.

[McKdaddy]

Hummel commentary on Garcia...

http://m.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/will-garcia-still-have-a-shot-at-rotation/article_44456668-a93e-5e4f-9b4c-9e4fa541add7.html?mobile_touch=true

[jrulz83]

Garcia shut down 10-15 days.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/garcia-to-be-shut-down-to-days/article_30a73393-2bc4-5b36-b22d-66b448d1dcf7.html

He seems to be in a good frame of mind with it, but what else can he say? Hopefully it's no big deal and he will be good to go.

[McKdaddy]

Garcia shut down 10-15 days.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/garcia-to-be-shut-down-to-days/article_30a73393-2bc4-5b36-b22d-66b448d1dcf7.html

He seems to be in a good frame of mind with it, but what else can he say? Hopefully it's no big deal and he will be good to go.

Amen.

[jrulz83]

Bernie: Cards Shouldn't Count on Garcia

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-cards-shouldn-t-count-on-garcia/article_04164d8c-62cf-5ff3-9f3c-ff7085d2af7f.html

[McKdaddy]

Bernie: Cards Shouldn't Count on Garcia

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-cards-shouldn-t-count-on-garcia/article_04164d8c-62cf-5ff3-9f3c-ff7085d2af7f.html

That's the reality. Could be another season like Carp's 2013.

[Hogfaniam]