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How many people would have fouled

Started by nwahogfan1, January 27, 2016, 11:31:53 pm

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nwahogfan1

at half court at tonight's game and not allowed A&M the chance of making a 3 point shot for the tie?  Girls did  not foul against Auburn and they threw up a 3 and tied it in regulation and won in OT on Sunday. 

So curious what you would do in that situation.  I think I would have tried to foul and not allowed them the chance of making a long lucky 3 for the tie and let it go into OT.

ChicoHog

Absolutely.   I'm a big believer in fouling when you are up 3 and other team has ball with 10 seconds or so left.  I've seen way too may games get tied with a 3 by the opponent. 

 

1highhog


b-ash

I definitely would have fouled Caruso just past half court.  The clock would have been down to 3-4 seconds and they would have had to try and make one and miss one and get the rebound, which I would think is a lower percentage than a normal 3 point attempt.  I don't know if I would always use this strategy with the hogs because unless we get the ball to Hannah's then i don't believe we can match free throws, but in that situation fouling would have been better.

Dr. Starcs


Hollywood_HOGan45

January 28, 2016, 06:52:44 am #5 Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 08:40:10 am by Hollywood_HOGan45
Foul. Your chances of making a 3 are greater than making one, missing the next, getting the rebounding and stick back.

But eh..... we won the game....

Danny J


azhog10

I would have fouled. However I would have been nervous as hell that they would pull down the offensive rebound and stick it back. We are a better rebounding team, however Davis was owning Kingsley and not sure Thompson has the athleticism in that situation to guarantee a rebound if it comes off on his side. But odds show that a three pointer is more likely to be made vs. making a free throw and missing and getting the rebound and finishing. Neither one is guaranteed to work, and CMA's decision paid off. But I normally foul if the ball will be across halfcourt with 2 or more seconds left but less than 5 seconds.

razorzapp

You foul in that situation every time.  Statistics prove it's by far the best move.  Which means it won't happen here.

The real Hogules

Yeah, with under 8 seconds remaining, leading by 3, I would have let them run off a couple of seconds and hacked them at mid court.
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azhog10

We all say we would have fould. Dino said he would have fouled. All that said, A LOT of coaches for whatever reason say they would foul but when the time comes they are more afraid of bringing in the possibility of losing vs. going to OT. I don't like it, but you see time and time again even Coach K won't foul EVERYTIME. More of a gut decision, but numbers don't like, and numbers say to foul.

thehill1414

To answer your question, absolutely foul.

Just want to recap another scenario from last night. Thompson was fouled out of the game in the last couple minutes. With ~30 seconds left and A&M at the line down 3, we had Durham, Beard, Hannahs, Bell, and Kingsley in the game to rebound. Luckily, House made his second free throw and Bell, who was on the low block opposite Kingsley, didn't have to attempt to grab a board inside. What were we thinking not putting Whitt, Miles, or Willy in there?

Breems

Given our performance this year in clutch situations, I was hoping we wouldn't foul. I was a little more comfortable letting the game rest on 1 defensive possession than trusting our team to properly handle 2 more clutch possessions. Vandy's wide-open dunk to send it to OT comes to mind.
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hogsanity

Quote from: Breems on January 28, 2016, 08:38:30 am
Given our performance this year in clutch situations, I was hoping we wouldn't foul. I was a little more comfortable letting the game rest on 1 defensive possession than trusting our team to properly handle 2 more clutch possessions. Vandy's wide-open dunk to send it to OT comes to mind.

I would never foul with more than 4 seconds left, still leaves time for many weird things to happen. Under 4 seconds, probably, but then you run the risk of a guy somehow getting into the act of shooting a getting 3 shots. It is not as easy of a decision as it looks outside the heat of the moment.
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HoopS

Quote from: hogsanity on January 28, 2016, 08:41:33 am
I would never foul with more than 4 seconds left, still leaves time for many weird things to happen. Under 4 seconds, probably, but then you run the risk of a guy somehow getting into the act of shooting a getting 3 shots. It is not as easy of a decision as it looks outside the heat of the moment.
agreed. Easy to sit here and say foul, but it doesn't always plays out so perfectly. And we aren't exactly a dominant rebounding team. Make one, bat the rebound out to House or Carusso and today we are calling the foul idiotic considering we aren't a great rebounding team. In the end, Hogg shot a desperation 3 and I can live with that every time. 

HOGINTENNESSEE

I won't have fouled with 6 sec left. Make them go the length of he court us up the time and take a bad shot

code red

Yes most definitely......how many times have we fouled a 3 point attempt this year???  Plenty.  Still happy with the win.  When we shoot.....we win.  That theme will continue.
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today."  Dr. Lou

TomBigBeeHog

No foul for me there, too many variables. Of course, I was so nervous considering our previous luck in close games that I was second guessing CMA's decision until the final buzzer.
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lynbug

Quote from: Hollywood_HOGan45 on January 28, 2016, 06:52:44 am
Foul. Your chances of making a 3 are greater than making one, missing the next, getting the rebounding and stick back.

But eh..... we won the game....

You must factor in the fact that Arkansas has sometimes had problems with the inbounds pass. Luckily we didn't last night

HoopS

Quote from: lynbug on January 28, 2016, 01:12:06 pm
You must factor in the fact that Arkansas has sometimes had problems with the inbounds pass. Luckily we didn't last night
very astute. Inbounds under duress isn't just as simple as some would have you believe. You can screen to pop someone open, better be set and not foul or this plan turns into disaster.

Atlhogfan1

They got a good shot last night.  On the road, I definitely lean foul once they cross halfcourt as you want to limit your odds even more of going to OT.  The %'s show the play there is to foul.  No reason to foul in the backcourt.
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phadedhawg

I don't like fouling in those situations.  I totally understand the logic in doing it but I like playing defense and earning it with a stop.

MB Hog

Quote from: HoopS on January 28, 2016, 08:48:57 am
agreed. Easy to sit here and say foul, but it doesn't always plays out so perfectly. And we aren't exactly a dominant rebounding team. Make one, bat the rebound out to House or Carusso and today we are calling the foul idiotic considering we aren't a great rebounding team. In the end, Hogg shot a desperation 3 and I can live with that every time. 
Hard call to make.  Bell was expecting a foul at the end of the Georgia game, so he threw up a crazy 3 a couple seconds before the buzzer because he thought the GA player was about to foul him on purpose.  It worked out for GA that they decided not to foul. 

If we had tried to foul last night, TAM was probably prepared to throw up a prayer at the point of contact to try to get 3 free throws.  The decision is definitely not cut and dried.

BRHogfan

Quote from: lynbug on January 28, 2016, 01:12:06 pm
You must factor in the fact that Arkansas has sometimes had problems with the inbounds pass. Luckily we didn't last night

This is what I was nervous about, but then again the plan to get the ball to Dusty at the end last night worked really well.

I was glad I wasn't the guy having to make the decision last night. 

 

BRHogfan

Quote from: MB Hog on January 28, 2016, 02:07:41 pm
Hard call to make.  Bell was expecting a foul at the end of the Georgia game, so he threw up a crazy 3 a couple seconds before the buzzer because he thought the GA player was about to foul him on purpose.  It worked out for GA that they decided not to foul. 

If we had tried to foul last night, TAM was probably prepared to throw up a prayer at the point of contact to try to get 3 free throws.  The decision is definitely not cut and dried.

I thought they did foul him, but knew the ref couldn't make a call like that at the end on the road. 

rude1

Quote from: MB Hog on January 28, 2016, 02:07:41 pm
Hard call to make.  Bell was expecting a foul at the end of the Georgia game, so he threw up a crazy 3 a couple seconds before the buzzer because he thought the GA player was about to foul him on purpose.  It worked out for GA that they decided not to foul. 

If we had tried to foul last night, TAM was probably prepared to throw up a prayer at the point of contact to try to get 3 free throws.  The decision is definitely not cut and dried.
This is a good point. All it takes is a guy anticipating the foul and goes right into a shooting motion to get 3 free throws. Then there is the other scenario that I think really scares coaches from fouling in that situation, we all know the low probability of it happening but what if on the make one miss one scenario they make the one, then on the purposely missed one the ball bounces perfectly into their hands and your guys instinctively panic and foul on a put back that goes in? You could lose the game. So in a coaches mind the worst that can happen playing it straight up is OT where as fouling creates a whole other set of possibilities they can't control....

Dropkick

I would not foul. Never have been of that mindset.

BadHog

Depends on the team you are playing and their ability to hit the three. You go with the odds.
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