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ESPN FPI Predicts Arkansas's 2017 Football Season

Started by Youngsta71701, June 17, 2017, 06:44:36 am

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factchecker

Quote from: 12247 on June 21, 2017, 07:03:36 pm
What would anyone guess that Vegas would offer as odds that Arkansas would beat
TCU and A&M this season.  I would bet the odds are very low that we win both based on past performance versus quality of those 2 teams.  If we could pull that off, I like our chances for 8 wins in regular season.

You make a very good point.

I truly believe that AnM is a sticking point for this team.  A win against AnM might propel us to a better season.
WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

rhames

Quote from: Hogwild on June 21, 2017, 04:44:26 pm
If you flip a coin 2 times and it lands on heads the probability of the third time in landing on heads in 50% not 12.5%
The third flip isn't influenced by the fact that the first two flips were heads.

Not true at all.


Probability of flipping a coin and it landing on heads 3 times in a row is .5 X .5 X .5.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

 

Murr

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on June 21, 2017, 07:22:50 am
We actually had a 9 win season lined up for us last season before we collapsed. We win against Mizzou and VA Tech and the offseason conversation is completely different.

But we stopped playing both those games deep into the second quarter which is why our RPI and expected wins are so low.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Murr on June 21, 2017, 07:13:47 pm
But we stopped playing both those games deep into the second quarter which is why our RPI and expected wins are so low.

Here's why (IMO) we are picked so low. Look at what Phil Steele predicted from 2013 through 2016 and think back about our results and how it might have conflicted with what others were predicting.

Phil Steele's prediction for Arkansas for 2016 was anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. That's a fairly large difference in predicted outcome. Too many possible variables to nail it down more closely.

Prior to 2015 he had us as a #22 pre season pick and suggested us as a contender in the SEC West but also picked us to come in at #5 in the West.

Prior to 2014 he had us picked last in the SEC West.

Prior to the 2013 season he also had us at #5 in the West and projected the Hogs to be one of his most improved teams over 2012.

Is it any wonder that they are taking the safe route and projecting 6-7 wins? Again, too many questions remain to be answered at this point, too many unknowns.

1. Will the 3-4 help produce a better defense than last year?
2. Will the scheme allow the LB's to perform better than last year?
3. Will we be more of a pressure defense this season?
4. Will the WR's group step up and produce at a high level?
5. Is the O-Line vastly improved over last year?
6. Will the production of David Williams and Maleek Williams more than make up for the loss of that fine young man, RWIII?
7. Will Austin Allen throw for 3400 yards again this season?
8. Will we allow fewer big plays this year than last?
9. Will we finish games?

I too can understand why they are sticking to a 6 to 7 win prediction. They have been burned before by us by either being worse or better than they projected. 6-7 wins is the national media's safe space until the Hogs can prove them wrong.
Go Hogs Go!

EastexHawg

Quote from: Hogwild on June 21, 2017, 05:56:05 pm
Nebraska was really good, no arguing that.  You asked what changed other than their coaches, I pointed out that they are in a different conference now.  Not sure what the SEC has to do with any of that.

My point is that they were a great program for over three decades when they had two great coaches, Devaney and Osborne.  Almost as soon as Osborne left they became mediocre to occasionally good.

I mentioned their record against the SEC in response to the "they changed conferences" comment.  They were dominant, period.  They would have been dominant in the SEC or any other conference.

Gonzo

Quote from: rhames on June 21, 2017, 07:13:29 pm
Not true at all.


Probability of flipping a coin and it landing on heads 3 times in a row is .5 X .5 X .5.


It's absolutely true. Y'all are talking about 2 different items. One is the odds of flipping heads 3 times in a row prior to the first flip, the other is the odds of one single flip being heads, in this case the third. Once you reach the third flip, it doesn't matter if you flipped heads 100 times in a row, the odds of heads on that next flip is 50%, just like every other single flip.


Go Hogs!

bphi11ips

Quote from: Gonzo on June 21, 2017, 07:58:23 pm

It's absolutely true. Y'all are talking about 2 different items. One is the odds of flipping heads 3 times in a row prior to the first flip, the other is the odds of one single flip being heads, in this case the third. Once you reach the third flip, it doesn't matter if you flipped heads 100 times in a row, the odds of heads on that next flip is 50%, just like every other single flip.


Go Hogs!

It's all about how you read the data.  ;)
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

Gonzo

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 21, 2017, 10:16:07 pm
It's all about how you read the data.  ;)


Well, as long as you get a legit coin - like you said, GIGO ;)



Go Hogs!

Hoggish1

Quote from: southeasthog on June 17, 2017, 07:05:53 am
Since they fired everybody and still know everything we should take that to the bank!

LOL. They didn't know anything before they fired everybody.

rhames

Quote from: Gonzo on June 21, 2017, 07:58:23 pm

It's absolutely true. Y'all are talking about 2 different items. One is the odds of flipping heads 3 times in a row prior to the first flip, the other is the odds of one single flip being heads, in this case the third. Once you reach the third flip, it doesn't matter if you flipped heads 100 times in a row, the odds of heads on that next flip is 50%, just like every other single flip.


Go Hogs!


You're right. I shouldn't have given the outcome of the first 2 flips. Changed probability to (1 X 1X .5)  I was trying to convey that flipping a coin three times and receiving the same side all 3 times only has a probability of 12.5%  and If you were to do that and get heads all three times that doesn't mean the initial probability was wrong.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 21, 2017, 10:16:07 pm
It's all about how you read the data.  ;)


It is. If you're currently reading the FPI as it saying arkansas is only going to win 5 games you're reading it incorrectly. It actually gives the highest probability of a 6 win season. Next highest is 7 or 5 wins I believe.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

rhames

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 07:13:48 am

It is. If you're currently reading the FPI as it saying arkansas is only going to win 5 games you're reading it incorrectly. It actually gives the highest probability of a 6 win season. Next highest is 7 or 5 wins I believe.

Fine, but the OP doesn't link to the FPI. It links to a slide presentation showing the probability of Arkansas winning each game on a game by game basis. You're mixing apples and oranges, just like you did with the coin flip analogy. The FPI predicts six wins - 6.1/5.9. The only way to read the slide show, based on the per game probability presented, is 5-7. That's all Muskogee was talking about.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

 

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 22, 2017, 07:52:19 am
Fine, but the OP doesn't link to the FPI. It links to a slide presentation showing the probability of Arkansas winning each game on a game by game basis. You're mixing apples and oranges, just like you did with the coin flip analogy. The FPI predicts six wins - 6.1/5.9. The only way to read the slide show, based on the per game probability presented, is 5-7. That's all Muskogee was talking about.



It's the probability from the FPI from ESPN. That's where the article is getting their info. It isn't apples and oranges. Heck read the title of the thread and then the OP.

Well read the second post in the thread from the OP
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 07:55:36 am


It's the probability from the FPI from ESPN. That's where the article is getting their info. It isn't apples and oranges. Heck read the title of the thread and then the OP.

Well read the second post in the thread from the OP

You're missing the point.  The only way to read the slide show is that Arkansas will probably lose 7 games.  The FPI itself predicts 6-6, so it is obviously considering other factors than the per game probabilities, e.g., how likely is it that Arkansas will win one of TCU, A&M, South Carolina or Ole Miss? 

The FPI, the way I read the description, is based on computer simulated games.  That's just silly.  It has predictive value because the future usually looks a lot like the past in college football, but the game itself is about matchups and intangibles.  That's why real people are better at this than computers.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 22, 2017, 08:09:41 am
You're missing the point.  The only way to read the slide show is that Arkansas will probably lose 7 games.  The FPI itself predicts 6-6, so it is obviously considering other factors than the per game probabilities, e.g., how likely is it that Arkansas will win one of TCU, A&M, South Carolina or Ole Miss? 

The FPI, the way I read the description, is based on computer simulated games.  That's just silly.  It has predictive value because the future usually looks a lot like the past in college football, but the game itself is about matchups and intangibles.  That's why real people are better at this than computers.


I'm not missing the point. I'm saying if you're reading the slideshow like that that's wrong. That's what I've been saying all along lol. If you formulate all those outcomes together that's where they are getting the 6 win outcome as most likely. If you're looking for a true outlook on the season just looking at these percentages from game to game that is how you're supposed to do it.


I would also argue real people suck more at predicting games than computers. Haha. Just going to have to agree to disagree here.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 08:17:36 am

I'm not missing the point. I'm saying if you're reading the slideshow like that that's wrong. That's what I've been saying all along lol. If you formulate all those outcomes together that's where they are getting the 6 win outcome as most likely. If you're looking for a true outlook on the season just looking at these percentages from game to game that is how you're supposed to do it.


I would also argue real people suck more at predicting games than computers. Haha. Just going to have to agree to disagree here.

Maybe you can explain how to formulate 5 probable wins and 7 probable losses and come up with 6-6 based only on the numbers presented in the slideshow without referencing the FPI chart. 
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 22, 2017, 08:30:54 am
Maybe you can explain how to formulate 5 probable wins and 7 probable losses and come up with 6-6 based only on the numbers presented in the slideshow without referencing the FPI chart. 



You have to formulate all the outcomes based on the percentages together on a scale from 12 wins to 0 wins. Someone already did that earlier in the thread and no one even noticed it.



Heck just multiple all the probability outcomes together and you would see how low the percentage is of just marking wins and loses based off the initial probability.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

LZH


Wildhog

Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

LZH

Quote from: Wildhog on June 22, 2017, 11:15:58 am
Are you a double naught spy?

Now you know dern well I can't say. But if Dash Riprock says its ok, then I'll PM ya.

bphi11ips

June 22, 2017, 12:38:54 pm #121 Last Edit: June 22, 2017, 01:05:27 pm by bphi11ips
Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 08:35:08 am

You have to formulate all the outcomes based on the percentages together on a scale from 12 wins to 0 wins. Someone already did that earlier in the thread and no one even noticed it.



Heck just multiple all the probability outcomes together and you would see how low the percentage is of just marking wins and loses based off the initial probability.


I went through the entire thread, and no one has extrapolated 6-6 from the probabilities in the slideshow.  If you're talking about yraciv at #35, all he did was copy the percentages for each game into his post.

The percentages shown in the slideshow are just like the coin flips.  The probability that any independent flip of a fair coin will turn up as heads is 50%.  The probability that three consecutive flips of a fair coin will turn up heads is 12.5%.  You can't use the .5 x .5 x.5 formula with the FPI per game probabilities because you are not dealing with a fair coin, you are dealing with independent future events, each with its own set of variables.  The only way for the FPI to predict 6.1 wins and 5.9 losses based upon the probabilities set forth in the slideshow is to apply some factor that accounts for the probability that each game will not turn out as forecast independently.  That factor is not apparent in the slideshow or in the chart.

In the real world, some of us, like Muskogee, have been saying for a while that this season is very unpredictable for the Razorbacks at this stage.  The trend has been for the Hogs to go a little better than .500.  Six or seven wins is a safe bet if you're an independent prognosticator.  I believe the Vegas over-under is currently 7.  If you like the FPI, then the under looks like a good bet.  If you're like Muskogee, take the over. 

Personally, I can see anything from 3-9 to 10-2.  That's a wide range and not one I've ever thought before in preseason. 

I think we'll beat TCU and believe that TCU has been generally overrated, as have its recruiting classes, for a few years.  TCU has gone 7-6, 4-8, 12-1, 11-2, and 6-7 since joining the Big 12.  The 12-1 and 11-2 were the Trevone Boykin years.  Kenny Hill is not Trevone Boykin, but he is good, he's a senior, and he rushed for 609 yards in 2016.  In fact, TCU has a senior laden team and Taj Williams and KaVontae Turpin return.  Senior Kyle Hicks and his 1042 rushing yards also return.  The Horned Frogs beat some good teams last year and played well in a loss to Georgia in the Liberty Bowl.  They have to play at Arkansas, but they were 2-5 at home last year and 4-2 on the road.  The Hogs have legitimate question marks at WR, TE and RB, but we have the best center in the country and an experienced O-line in front of a 5th year proven QB.  Austin Allen's QB rating last year was 146.  Allen threw for 3430 yards.  His completion rate was 60.8% with 25 TDs and 15 INTs.   Hill's rating was 129.2.  Hill threw for 3208, completing 61.1% of his passes for 17 TDs and 13 INTs.  On defense, Arkansas has talent in the front seven, but they are young and unproven, and they are switching schemes playing TCU in the second game of the year.  Arkansas's secondary is experienced, though, and bound to improve over last year when pass defense was pretty good.  Arkansas finished 58 in NCAA Passing Yards Allowed, giving up 221 ypg in the air.  TCU finished 76 at 239.  TCU's current depth chart shows 5 SRs, 5 JRs, and 1 SOPH in the defensive starting unit.  Gary Patterson is a defensive coach. 

Put the above together, and it looks like CBS chose well for its 2:30 game on September 9.  The game has historic interest and is a matchup between two respected intersectional P5 teams.  Vegas currently has TCU giving up 6 points.  That probably means TCU would be a 9 point favorite at home.  I personally think that's too much.  Arkansas gets an early tune up against FAMU and two extra days to prepare for TCU and work out the kinks in the 3-4 and AA's timing with the new receivers.  TCU tunes up at home against Jackson State.  Assuming everyone is healthy for both teams, this game could come down to a QB battle.  With two linebackers covering the middle of the field rather than one, Arkansas should be able to better defend the RPO that was its weakness last year.  It needs to be, because Kenny Hill will test it.  I have no good feeling either way about who will win after looking more closely at this game this morning than I have so far, but my gut tells me Arkansas will squeak one out at home.  The game could turn on breaks and/or whoever has the ball last. 

If Arkansas beats TCU, I think they'll go into A&M confident in front of a vocal group of fans in Dallas looking for the Hogs to end its five game losing streak against the Aggies.  The Aggies lost a lot on defense and have their own question mark at QB.  I think the Hogs beat A&M either way, but a TCU win would give them momentum and confidence.  The open date before the Aggies will help in the tune ups, and the Hogs should have fresh legs in Dallas.  If they go to South Carolina 4-0 or 3-1, they'll have a better shot of winning there.  If they go in 2-2 and down in the mouth, South Carolina's 80,000 could smell blood.  The Gamecocks have a tough early schedule, though, and they could be softened up a bit for the Hogs if things go sour early.  They open at home against NC State, then go on the road against Missouri, then get a better than usual Kentucky and La Tech at home before traveling to A&M the week before they face the Hogs.  The Hogs get another tune up at home against New Mexico State before traveling to Columbia.  So, the schedule could help the Hogs with South Carolina.  We've also won 5 of 11 games there.

If the Hogs go into Tuscaloosa 5-0, that will get some national attention.  Could the Hogs beat Alabama?  Probably not, but this might be the first time in a few years they have a legitimate shot.  AA gives the Razorbacks a chance in any game.  Brandon Martin gives him a big target the Hogs haven't had in a while.  If Jalen Hurts has a bad day, or Alabama turns it over a few times, who knows? An Arkansas win is probably wishful thinking, though.  Still, at 5-0 the Hogs would go in with some swagger. 

Auburn looks like a big favorite after trouncing the Hogs last year.  They have the current darling of untested SEC QBs and an awesome rushing attack.  But they will also go to Fayetteville on the heels of four straight physical SEC games, at Missouri, at home against the Mississippi teams, and at LSU.  Arkansas fans want revenge.  They'll be vocal regardless, but moreso if Arkansas is 5-1.  The game is certainly winnable, and it's hard to forget Arkansas's turnaround against Miami in the 80s when they were embarrassed in Little Rock just as badly as they were embarrassed on The Plains last year, and then they turned around and were a dropped interception away from ruining Miami's perfect season the next year at Miami. 

Arkansas should beat Ole Miss in Oxford.  The Rebel Bears are another team with a brutal early schedule.  After opening with South Alabama and UT-Martin, they travel to California, get a week off, then play Alabama at home, Auburn on the road, Vandy at home (who gives Ole Miss fits), and then travel to LSU the week before they get the Hogs.  Ole Miss could easily be 2-5, but will likely be 4-3 at best.  At 4-3 they will have something to play for, but at 2-5 or 3-4, they are likely going to be a mess with all the drama and probation going on in Oxford. 

Arkansas gets a breather against Coastal Carolina before traveling to LSU.  I don't see LSU as being much different than Alabama.  Not much chance we beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge this year, but it could happen.  LSU is just too physical for the Hogs.  We didn't have an answer for Derrius Guice last year and aren't likely to this year.  Again, though, AA and/or turnovers can be a great equalizer on any given day.

The Hogs should close with victories over Miss State and Missouri.  The FPI agrees.

So, what is the other side of the coin (no pun intended based on the discussion above)?  What if the Hogs lose to TCU and A&M?  It could happen.  Can they recover for South Carolina on the road?  How good will South Carolina be?  They are believed to have found a QB in Jake Bentley, where they've suffered since Connor Shaw left, and a solid ground game.  I'll believe the QB when I see it, especially with Muschamp, but that is a very LOSABLE game.  What if the Hogs go into Tuscaloosa 2-3 and then get waxed by Alabama and Auburn?  It could happen.  Ole Miss will then be licking its chops to salvage some dignity, and LSU will look like another trouncing.  If the Hogs go into Miss State and Missouri at home winless in the SEC, all bets are off.

This season looks precarious, but it could be great, too.  Nobody knows at this point, least of all computers.                   
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

rhames

June 22, 2017, 12:53:03 pm #122 Last Edit: June 22, 2017, 01:09:25 pm by rhames
Quote from: yraciv on June 20, 2017, 01:35:11 pm
Here are the actual percentages. We're favored to win 5,  but we're the overwhelming favorite in 3 of those.  Some games are closer to a coin flip, which makes 6-6 or 7-5 more likely.  And I'm not buying the TCU or South Carolina favorites, and I just think we're due against A&M. I'm optimistic enough to go with 8-4.
Record   Likelihood
12-0   0.0014%
11-1   0.05%
10-2   0.55%
9-3   3.31%
8-4   11.21%
7-5   22.86%
6-6   28.69%
5-7   21.80%
4-8   9.42%
3-9   1.97%
2-10   0.13%
1-11   0.0027%
0-12   0.000007%



That's the post I was talking about.

He didn't copy the percentages of each game on to his post. He laid out the probability of each win total


I'm not multiplying. 5×.5. That was just a simple example but I guess it didn't work well. Good thing I'm not a teacher.

Let's just use the FPI for the first 2 games. It gives arkansas a 99.7% chance against Florida AM and a 38.7% chance against TCU. According to the FPI arkansas has a 38.5% chance to win both games. (.997 X .387)



I give you a lot of respect on constructing that post but it still doesn't change the fact of what I'm saying.

Now you may not agree with the probabilities that's fine. I'm just saying it's an incorrect statement to say the FPI is predicting 5 wins when it isn't


Numbers are numbers and work the same way. Doesn't matter if you're given odds on the weather or a football game. 
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

daprospecta

I mentioned this before in another thread but I broke down our schedule without bias and with the tendencies we have shown under CBB. I did this with another alumni and 5-7 or 6-6 was the outcome. Sure, we can go 7-5 or 8-4 but that would require some lucky bounces in our favor.  A 9 win season this year just does not seem likely. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not very.  Whatever the record, I'm going to be cheering for this team with all I have.

 

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 12:53:03 pm


That's the post I was talking about.

He didn't copy the percentages of each game on to his post. He laid out the probability of each win total


I'm not multiplying. 5×.5. That was just a simple example but I guess it didn't work well. Good thing I'm not a teacher.

Let's just use the FPI for the first 2 games. It gives arkansas a 99.7% chance against Florida AM and a 38.7% chance against TCU. According to the FPI arkansas has a 38.5% chance to win both games. (.997 X .387)



I give you a lot of respect on constructing that post but it still doesn't change the fact of what I'm saying.

Now you may not agree with the probabilities that's fine. I'm just saying it's an incorrect statement to say the FPI is predicting 5 wins when it isn't


Numbers are numbers and work the same way. Doesn't matter if you're given odds on the weather or a football game. 

I looked again and you're right about the numbers yraciv posted. I misread them, but I think he got them from somewhere other than the slideshow or the FPI chart. Maybe I missed those as well.

I still think Muskogee took a common sense reading of the slideshow.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

rhames

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 22, 2017, 01:32:57 pm
I looked again and you're right about the numbers yraciv posted. I misread them, but I think he got them from somewhere other than the slideshow or the FPI chart. Maybe I missed those as well.

I still think Muskogee took a common sense reading of the slideshow.


And I totally understand why someone would read it that way. For simplicity's sake let's say the FPI favors arkansas in every game 55% to 45%  All 12 games it's the same head to head chances.  Is it fair to say the FPI is predicting an undefeated season?  Because it's only saying there is a .0766% of that happening.

By the way I really appreciate your input and back and forth. Your last post was awesome with all the info.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

bphi11ips

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 02:41:56 pm

And I totally understand why someone would read it that way. For simplicity's sake let's say the FPI favors arkansas in every game 55% to 45%  All 12 games it's the same head to head chances.  Is it fair to say the FPI is predicting an undefeated season?  Because it's only saying there is a .0766% of that happening.

By the way I really appreciate your input and back and forth. Your last post was awesome with all the info.

I get that analogy and agree.

It's always good debating here with civil posters who back up their position.  That's fun, and kudos to you for sticking with it.

I got a bit carried away once I started looking at TCU's roster and our opponents' schedules.  When you drill down into what they return, it's not hard to see why they're an early favorite. 

Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

Hogwild

Last year they had us losing the final 7 games of the year



rhames

Quote from: Hogwild on June 22, 2017, 07:32:28 pm
Last year they had us losing the final 7 games of the year




Lol. Here we go again. Sitting this one out.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

DLUXHOG

Quote from: bphi11ips on June 22, 2017, 12:38:54 pm
I went through the entire thread, and no one has extrapolated 6-6 from the probabilities in the slideshow.......

WOW!!  and I'll apologize in advance if this reply offends you, but this post has got to be the lengthiest post ever in the history of HOGVILLE....   regardless it was a interesting and informative reply!
"Don't go in anyplace you'd be ashamed to die in..."
(you might get this someday)

bphi11ips

Quote from: DLUXHOG on June 22, 2017, 08:06:30 pm
WOW!!  and I'll apologize in advance if this reply offends you, but this post has got to be the lengthiest post ever in the history of HOGVILLE....   regardless it was a interesting and informative reply!

I've seen "TLDR" plenty if times in ten years here.  Lol. 

The reply was short.  The rest was just a look at some of the intangibles I believe are beyond the ken of computer simulations. 
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

seasonhog

Quote from: bigeasyhog on June 20, 2017, 09:00:36 pm
My eyes are burning. I can't believe this is where we've fallen. Say what you want; but if Petrino were still here, I highly doubt we would be praying for six wins. I just can't get my mind around this. Is this really how low the bar is now for the head coach for the Razorbacks?
I cut my teeth on Lou Holtz football, and was on the hill during the Hatfield/ Crowe era. We won the SWC my sophomore year ( ironically our last conference title). But, even with the move to a stronger conference, I never dreamed we would become this complacent and content .
I'm tired, and quite frankly, embarrassed. IMO, there's a lot of coaches that can go .500 every year at Arkansas. Hell, I think I could, and I'll work for a lot less than $4mm a year! Oh, and yes, I Coach football.
I'm tired of the laundry list of excuses. Losers make excuses. Guys, it's all about coaching. When you have superior coaching on the hill, in any sport, you can win, and even win big. I don't care if you're running relays, hitting home runs, dunking basketballs , or throwing TD's ; John McDonell, Dave Van Horn, Nolan Richardson , Bobby Petrino, Lou Holtz all won or win at a high and national level in , guess where ? Fayetteville, AR!!! The campus is located in the exact same place!! Kids want to play for a winner! PERIOD!! Fayetteville isn't "remote". Hell, we didn't have I-49 or XNA when I was there. It couldn't be more easy to get there now! Show me all the recruiting interviews with Richard Davenport where the recruit says" well, it's too hard to get to Fayetteville; it's just too remote...". If John McDonell can get track talent from Ireland and South Africa, then I'm done with the whole location limitations premise.
Just stop it!! Enough! 
Honestly, perception is reality. And right now, even though Bielema may be keeping kids in school, and graduating them, the perception of Razorback football is in decline. Why? Because we are " barely on the radar screen ", because we accept mediocrity. I miss the fact that Frank Broyles fired Lou Holtz  in 1983 for going 6-5. I miss that he fired Jack Crowe in 1992 for losing to the Citadel. Why? Because he KNEW once you allow and reward mediocrity, it eventually becomes acceptable. So, now here we are. I just hope before I'm six feet under, we can " break the chain". That's all I've got.


Well said........right on the money.

GoHogs1091

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 21, 2017, 02:03:12 am
We are about equal from a talent perspective to these programs, so you must think we have a coaching advantage.

You bring up an interesting point.

Dan Mullen is probably the 2nd best Head Coach in the conference, 2nd to Saban.  Hence, Bielema's 1-3 record against Mullen.

Odom is inexperienced as a Head Coach, but he did win against Bielema last season, which is a continuation of perplexing losses by Bielema since he has been here (Rutgers, Toledo, and Texas Tech-which the Texas Tech debacle was in Fayetteville).

Muschamp couldn't head coach his way out of a paper bag.  Surely, Bielema can win against Muschamp this upcoming season.

Al Boarland

Quote from: rhames on June 22, 2017, 07:17:00 am


Do not agree with this ranking at all.

I think you can take the right column and shuffle them around all you want.

goodguytex

Quote from: DLUXHOG on June 22, 2017, 08:06:30 pm
WOW!!  and I'll apologize in advance if this reply offends you, but this post has got to be the lengthiest post ever in the history of HOGVILLE....   regardless it was a interesting and informative reply!
Surely  you jest. Have you read a whoskid or Benny post? They set records for post length.

But bps post was a very good one no doubt.

Razor1997


LZH

Is this a real thread? Or some MK Ultra-type deal?

jkstock04

Quote from: The ColonelHog on June 23, 2017, 12:31:31 pm
When talking geographical disadvantage, to make a real point, use the lack of in state talent.  Kids today aren't that caught up in staying close to momma.  They are caught up in winning programs and 7-6 is not a winning program. 
I haven't followed recruiting as closely as I used to. But one thing I did notice in the past is the blue blood programs would pull 4 & 5 star kids from all over the country.

Those teams are not handcuffed to recruiting within a 100 mile radius around campus like we supposedly have to do. I'm not saying it's a non issue, but we use it as too big of a crutch and excuse.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: jkstock04 on June 23, 2017, 01:54:45 pm
I haven't followed recruiting as closely as I used to. But one thing I did notice in the past is the blue blood programs would pull 4 & 5 star kids from all over the country.

Those teams are not handcuffed to recruiting within a 100 mile radius around campus like we supposedly have to do. I'm not saying it's a non issue, but we use it as too big of a crutch and excuse.

It's not a "crutch or excuse", it is reality that we aren't one of the blueblood programs that can beckon to a 4 or 5 star from the further reaches of the country and they usually come running. You don't have to follow recruiting closely to know that is true.
Go Hogs Go!

EastexHawg

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 23, 2017, 02:20:01 pm
It's not a "crutch or excuse", it is reality that we aren't one of the blueblood programs that can beckon to a 4 or 5 star from the further reaches of the country and they usually come running. You don't have to follow recruiting closely to know that is true.

Those programs can pull recruits from all over the country because they win big.  We, too, have to win big if we expect to recruit at a high level outside the state.  Seems obvious, but I think sometimes people lose sight of that fact.

There is nothing special about the University of Alabama except that they refuse to accept anything other than excellence and thus have done whatever it takes to win.  There was nothing special about Nebraska for a 35-40 year stretch, either.

jkstock04

Quote from: EastexHawg on June 23, 2017, 02:33:10 pm
Those programs can pull recruits from all over the country because they win big.  We, too, have to win big if we expect to recruit at a high level outside the state.  Seems obvious, but I think sometimes people lose sight of that fact.

There is nothing special about the University of Alabama except that they refuse to accept anything other than excellence and thus have done whatever it takes to win.  There was nothing special about Nebraska for a 35-40 year stretch, either.
It's not just the Bamas and Ohio states. Seems like 75% of Tennessee's roster is from all
over the country and they have been below average or just plain sucked for almost 20 years.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: EastexHawg on June 23, 2017, 02:33:10 pm
Those programs can pull recruits from all over the country because they win big.  We, too, have to win big if we expect to recruit at a high level outside the state.  Seems obvious, but I think sometimes people lose sight of that fact.

There is nothing special about the University of Alabama except that they refuse to accept anything other than excellence and thus have done whatever it takes to win.  There was nothing special about Nebraska for a 35-40 year stretch, either.

No, I didn't overlook that and that is absolutely true, but not being one of the blue bloods currently, the only way to get there is to win at a high level for an extended period of time, and that doesn't mean 2 years. Probably have to do it impressively for at least 5 years in a row of 10 wins or more each season, before people all over the country really begin to take notice and your name becomes one of those mentioned every time they talk about big time programs.

But you know, that really is a tall task. It's like training to be in shape for the 100M in the Olympics when you have sat on your butt for 20 or more years, even if you were pretty fast and competitive at one time. It is far more difficult to achieve and you have to do a ton more work than those that are already in shape. How difficult is it? Name one P-5 school that hasn't been a major power, blue blood kind of school in well over 20 years, that isn't in a recruiting hotbed, that has been able to do it in the last 20 years? Answer? None that I can think of.
Go Hogs Go!

jkstock04

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 23, 2017, 02:46:11 pm
No, I didn't overlook that and that is absolutely true, but not being one of the blue bloods currently, the only way to get there is to win at a high level for an extended period of time, and that doesn't mean 2 years. Probably have to do it impressively for at least 5 years in a row of 10 wins or more each season, before people all over the country really begin to take notice your name becomes one of those mentioned every time they talk about big time programs. But you know, that really is a tall task. It's like training to be in shape for the 100M in the Olympics when you have sat on your butt for 20 or more years, even if you were pretty fast and competitive at one time. It is far more difficult to achieve and you have to do a ton more work than those that are already in shape. How difficult is it? Name one P-5 school that hasn't been a major power, blue blood kind of school in well over 20 years, that isn't in a recruiting hotbed, that has been able to do it in the last 20 years? Answer? None that I can think of.
Like I said above...Tennessee comes to mind. How do they pull top classes with mostly out of state guys?

Of course, with them one could also come with the argument that stars really don't matter.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: jkstock04 on June 23, 2017, 02:49:03 pm
Like I said above...Tennessee comes to mind. How do they pull top classes with mostly out of state guys?

Of course, with them one could also come with the argument that stars really don't matter.

They do, and I think Phil Fulmer is one of those who really started that trend for them many years ago. And you just mentioned the catch to all of that, it hasn't helped them a lick.
Go Hogs Go!

Hogwild

Quote from: jkstock04 on June 23, 2017, 02:40:01 pm
It's not just the Bamas and Ohio states. Seems like 75% of Tennessee's roster is from all
over the country and they have been below average or just plain sucked for almost 20 years.

more like the last 10 years since they fire Fulmer, Kiffin/Dooley effect.

the 10 years between '98-'07 included 1 National Tile, 5 SEC championship games, 8 seasons ranked in the top 25, 7 seasons with 9+ wins.


Al Boarland

Quote from: jkstock04 on June 23, 2017, 02:49:03 pm
Like I said above...Tennessee comes to mind. How do they pull top classes with mostly out of state guys?

Of course, with them one could also come with the argument that stars really don't matter.

They have a rich tradition.

bigeasyhog

We did to; you just never got to witness it.

Al Boarland


Großer Kriegschwein

Quote from: HOGINTENNESSEE on June 17, 2017, 08:59:51 am
If we go 5-7 with MSU, Mizz at home and SC as our East Road game. I'm off the CBB wagon

I think the ejection seats will have went off for 98% of the wagoneers if that happens.
This is my non-signature signature.

bigeasyhog

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 24, 2017, 12:19:37 am
Not in the SEC.

Interesting how Louisville never used that crutch when they evolved from CUSA, to the Big East , and on to the ACC.