2017 Derby Trail

[userpick]

I got Always Dreaming at 50/1 a couple of weeks back. And I'm going to bet the hell out of him at anything better than 2-1 on Saturday. Also have a ticket on Battalion Runner at about the same odds.

Feeling really good at the moment. I know Pletcher has terrible derby record but that horse is a freak.

[ghostzapper]

Not impressed with any of today's winners.

[HawgWild]

I don't follow the horses as closely as in the past but I didn't see a horse in the Wood, Blue Grass or Santa Anita Derby that I think will hit the board in the Derby.

Is the Derby winner coming out of Florida or Arkansas this year?

[jdelo77]

I don't follow the horses as closely as in the past but I didn't see a horse in the Wood, Blue Grass or Santa Anita Derby that I think will hit the board in the Derby.

Is the Derby winner coming out of Florida or Arkansas this year?

One or the other I think ..,

[ghostzapper]

Beyer fig for SA Derby was an 88.  How pathetic is that?

[cbhawg03]

I told userpick to give me Hence for AR Derby the day he broke his maiden.  He wasn't good enough at OP in SW, which was stakes debut, but got the job done atSunland.  Maybe I will just take him in KY Derby.

Irap, look at his 3 year old campaign and that of Mind that Bird, only difference is Irap had one more prep, the Bluegrass, but their finishes in other races are exact as far as 3 year old campaign goes. 

[userpick]

One Liner is the next victim. Officially out of the Ark Derby and off the trail.

[husker71]

IMHO  Derby winner is not coming out of California this year

[oldman1015]

One Liner is the next victim. Officially out of the Ark Derby and off the trail.

Wow

[ghostzapper]

One of the most disappointing and confusing Derby trails in my lifetime.  The number of entrants to the Kentucky Derby who will have cracked the three digit Beyer mark before that race is likely to be 2, maybe 3, and only 1 or 2 (the Wood winner and, maybe, Classic Empire or whomever wins the Arkansas Derby) will enter off a three digit Beyer win (and I am being generous when I say 3 digits.  The Beyers are 101s).  The rest are coming off incredibly nondescript prep races that set the table for another putrid Derby win like Giacomo's.   

BAF was right in his evaluation of Mastery as the best of this lot, and I believe he would have been 2/5 in the Derby had he stayed healthy.  As of now, my focus is going to be on the horses who ran clunkers in their last prep who were well regarded before those races (e.g. McCracken) to see if their performances can be thrown out as predictors of Derby performance.     

[HogFanInBryant]

I am not saying Battalion Runner had an excuse in the Wood by any means.  But I am saying he will be much tougher in the KD and I think he needed this race.  Unbridled on top and Tapit on bottom means he is going to carry that speed much longer when it really counts!  Watch the gallop out and how he comes back and blows by Irish War Cry (link below).  Yes...I know he was beaten soundly...but I say to be continued.  He is my KD horse right now because I know the talent is there and I know the screws will be tightened on him.  Unless I see something spectacular come out of the Ark Derby, I'm confident in Battalion Runner having a huge chance at much better odds than he should get.  Can't wait til the first Saturday in May.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHodpshOk6I

[Russ22]

I am coming around to Girvin as a KD threat. I still believe that Untrapped has a big race as well.

[ghostzapper]

I am not saying Battalion Runner had an excuse in the Wood by any means.  But I am saying he will be much tougher in the KD and I think he needed this race.  Unbridled on top and Tapit on bottom means he is going to carry that speed much longer when it really counts!  Watch the gallop out and how he comes back and blows by Irish War Cry (link below).  Yes...I know he was beaten soundly...but I say to be continued.  He is my KD horse right now because I know the talent is there and I know the screws will be tightened on him.  Unless I see something spectacular come out of the Ark Derby, I'm confident in Battalion Runner having a huge chance at much better odds than he should get.  Can't wait til the first Saturday in May.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHodpshOk6I

Will tip my hat to you if he wins but what makes you think he will win this race from the lead, as his form suggests he will pursue?  He cost me the late pick 4 Saturday, so I hate him, but nothing in that race suggested to me he could win the Derby or even turn the tables on the Wood winner.

[userpick]

I'm not saying I love BR, but one thing is interesting. Pletcher has a very well known kentucky derby record. He's only won one of them, and on a sloppy track. But he has had several hit the board. The key factor in this is that the ones that have hit the board all lost their most recent prep going into the derby. His horses that have ran like sh*t all won their recent prep races.

That being said, I've got a 50-1 future on Always  Dreaming and still think he's the best horse i've seen on the trail.

[oldman1015]

Right now I'm going to say he needed the Bluegrass and going with McCracken. I am so confident that my annual $100 Kentucky Derby win bet will probably be $20 WP

[Iwastherein1969]

Right now I'm going to say he needed the Bluegrass and going with McCracken. I am so confident that my annual $100 Kentucky Derby win bet will probably be $20 WP

Still going with J. Echo's Boy at around 19-1 in the KY DERBY... J. Echo's Boy got jostled and banged at the start and shuffled back to last....Roman's says he can get the distance and this year that's all I need to know. J Echo's Boy will have a MUCH hotter pace to run at in the KY DERBY and the son of Mineshaft will most definitely be gaining ground in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby. The question is, as it is with every other horse entering the gate in this year's KY DERBY is, do they have the class to win it. I'll take my chances on this Mineshaft colt who has yet to put a full race together in his career. J. Echo's Boy will be worth the mutuals if you bet on him.

[HogFanInBryant]

Will tip my hat to you if he wins but what makes you think he will win this race from the lead, as his form suggests he will pursue?  He cost me the late pick 4 Saturday, so I hate him, but nothing in that race suggested to me he could win the Derby or even turn the tables on the Wood winner.

I think he needed the race in a big way.  He is the kind that can make a huge improvement and go gate to wire in my opinion because the talent is there.  Something is screaming at me about this horse after seeing how full of run he was after the wire, despite what looked like he was passed because he was tired.  I can't put my finger on it, just a gut feeling that he will turn it around.  I can easily see this year's KD 1/2 mile click being mid 47 seconds and if his screws are tightened that might be enough.  I believe enough to make the wager...

[HogFanInBryant]

I'm not saying I love BR, but one thing is interesting. Pletcher has a very well known kentucky derby record. He's only won one of them, and on a sloppy track. But he has had several hit the board. The key factor in this is that the ones that have hit the board all lost their most recent prep going into the derby. His horses that have ran like sh*t all won their recent prep races.

That being said, I've got a 50-1 future on Always  Dreaming and still think he's the best horse i've seen on the trail.

I hope this is a good sign for BR, we'll find out in just over 3 weeks!

[userpick]

I got Always Dreaming at 50/1 a couple of weeks back. And I'm going to bet the hell out of him at anything better than 2-1 on Saturday. Also have a ticket on Battalion Runner at about the same odds.

This horse has been very good to me!!

[ghostzapper]

Very nice!

Can we dispense with the GP figs are never accurate now?

[userpick]

Very nice!

Can we dispense with the GP figs are never accurate now?

Or Pletcher can't win a derby

[ghostzapper]

That too.  I was absolutely influencedby his Derby record in my selections