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Anybody Buying?

Started by HawgWild, August 01, 2014, 02:41:57 pm

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HawgWild


HognotinMemphis

I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

 

pheine78

Nope, sold a lot of my volatile stocks though, especially tech.  Correction coming now through the November elections.  I have plenty of cash on hand to buy after the election though.  That's not to say nothing is worth buying...if a stock is good it is good.  What say all of you?
Nolan for defensive coordinator!

pheine78

I shouldn't have said "after the election", I will probably start buying the week or two before.
Nolan for defensive coordinator!

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: pheine78 on August 02, 2014, 06:50:01 pm
I shouldn't have said "after the election", I will probably start buying the week or two before.
Best of luck with your market timing. And glad to hear you sold out of tech. That means tech sector still has ton of room to improve.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

Boardon Hamsay

Southwest Airlines (Ticker: LUV @$35.23 today) is an interest of mine at the moment. I believe Oct 14 of this year is when the law that limits SW routes out of Love Field expires so they have a lot of route growth potential coming.

YHOO is a strong buy at $42.08 and should have some gains based on their 23% ownership in Alibaba plus I believe they may be looking to acquire a few companies. AOL is one being mentioned at the moment.

AAPL is also a strong buy at $101.79.
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hawgbawb

Friday I converted $50K to cash. This market is overpriced and seems ready for a big time selloff. It just needs a spark.
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

aristotle

Buying Dollars with Yen. And Pounds with Euros on divergent central bank rate forecasts.

BENTON PIGGEE

I had $250k in covered calls Friday that were exercised, but I'm keeping most of it in cash right now. There aren't as many good deals right now and indicators are overall less bullish.

I did sell some Nov $65 puts on CLR. So I got paid to buy it if it goes down.

TASR may go up soon based on its fundamentals and chart pattern.
Avatar courtesy of root66

userpick

I'll be buying ALK at the end of this month.

pheine78

Quote from: HoginMemphis on August 03, 2014, 10:41:53 am
Best of luck with your market timing. And glad to hear you sold out of tech. That means tech sector still has ton of room to improve.
Thanks buddy.  We all know the great ones rely on market timing to make it big.  It works for everyone.  Shine some more light on me. 
Nolan for defensive coordinator!

BENTON PIGGEE

Quote from: userpick on September 26, 2014, 12:51:19 am
I'll be buying ALK at the end of this month.

Good idea, especially if oil is still going down and ebola is still in the headlines. No flights to Africa. I put a limit order in for some LUV today.
Avatar courtesy of root66

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: pheine78 on October 06, 2014, 05:50:56 pm
Thanks buddy.  We all know the great ones rely on market timing to make it big.  It works for everyone.  Shine some more light on me.
Holdings in MSFT, HPQ, STX and several others all up big today. I am a tech lover.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

 

hawgbawb

Methinks the bull is getting really long in the tooth. His legs teeter on a QE spec bubble.
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: hawgbawb on October 11, 2014, 09:49:54 pm
Methinks the bull is getting really long in the tooth. His legs teeter on a QE spec bubble.
It could easily run another 5 yrs. Markets do not go straight up over a 5 to 10 year secular bull market.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

pheine78

Quote from: HoginMemphis on October 12, 2014, 08:35:55 am
It could easily run another 5 yrs. Markets do not go straight up over a 5 to 10 year secular bull market.
All sarcasm aside, HiM, who you got?  The reason I said sell was the mid term elections.  No other reason, I think there will be a little dip and then we will get back on track.  Do you think the same?  Who you got?   Seriously? 
Nolan for defensive coordinator!

vandybuff

What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

valuehog

The E&P companies, especially the small caps heavily weighted to NG, have taken a big hit the past couple of weeks...anybody buying here?

CHK is back down near levels not seen since before the Icahn buy in and shakeup.

AXAS and GST are both growing production at a rapid rate and have both taken > 50% haircuts in market cap in a matter of just a few weeks.

XCO is also down by > 50% in just a few weeks, and at the current price has a dividend yield of > 8%.

I've been watching closely, but not seeing any significant insider buying in any of the small cap E&P's I follow yet. 

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: HoginMemphis on August 01, 2014, 11:46:32 pm
RYN. And already bought TGT and BBBY.

I heard somebody today saying the holiday season would be more online/by mail than expected because some people won't want to go into crowded places - Ebola fear. Heh. If that's true then nobody's gonna win.
[CENSORED]!

ricepig

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 14, 2014, 01:50:41 pm
I heard somebody today saying the holiday season would be more online/by mail than expected because some people won't want to go into crowded places - Ebola fear. Heh. If that's true then nobody's gonna win.

Yep, sales will be good, but traffic in Malls will suffer along with those stores who don't have a lot of intern traffic.

hawgbawb

I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

vandybuff

""anybody selling"" :)  Good one.  Hey, enjoy this long bull in both stocks and bonds while you can -- someday the fed will (or after this week "may") close the tap, and the free ride will slow. 
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

BENTON PIGGEE

Volatility and trading volumes are spiking. The market bounced off of support at 1820 on the s&p 500 set in April. It could bottom out there or at a previous resistance level like 1780 from February.

My guess is it will bounce around 1800 but may not start going up again for a few weeks. Some tight short bets may work. I don't plan on buying until volatility and volume decrease. I don't think we are in a trend reversal, more like a downturn due to multiple crises which will likely resolve.
Avatar courtesy of root66

hawgbawb

It's the ghouls of October. I'm glad I converted about 20% of my holdings to cash last month.
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

 

Biggus Piggus

Falling oil prices seem to be stoking fears of deflation.
[CENSORED]!

vandybuff

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 16, 2014, 08:07:00 am
Falling oil prices seem to be stoking fears of deflation.

great point, and I guess I am slow, for I see no problem with deflation.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: vandybuff on October 16, 2014, 12:10:44 pm
great point, and I guess I am slow, for I see no problem with deflation.

Econ lesson - Deflation is abnormal and an enormous problem if it happens.

Deflation causes a downward spiral in consumer spending. Falling prices give you a positive investment by simply holding cash. Longer you wait, the more your money is worth. On an individual basis you might think that is fantastic. Imagine if everyone did it at once. Economy would shrink. Fast.

As prices fall, employers become more likely to reduce wages for employees. Less revenue, less pay. But hey, prices are falling so why should you care?

Falling prices do nothing for existing debt. The real, deflation-adjusted value of debt rises. The normal response to rising debt is less spending. If your wages are falling too, this effect is magnified.
[CENSORED]!

vandybuff

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 16, 2014, 12:40:20 pm
Econ lesson - Deflation is abnormal and an enormous problem if it happens.

Deflation causes a downward spiral in consumer spending. Falling prices give you a positive investment by simply holding cash. Longer you wait, the more your money is worth. On an individual basis you might think that is fantastic. Imagine if everyone did it at once. Economy would shrink. Fast.

As prices fall, employers become more likely to reduce wages for employees. Less revenue, less pay. But hey, prices are falling so why should you care?

Falling prices do nothing for existing debt. The real, deflation-adjusted value of debt rises. The normal response to rising debt is less spending. If your wages are falling too, this effect is magnified.

With utmost respect ... and you points are very accurate ... I still see nothing 'bad' in this concept.  The fact that we as a society are not prepared for deflation does not inherently make it.  thanks so for your post.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

hawgbawb

Quote from: vandybuff on October 16, 2014, 12:45:49 pm
With utmost respect ... and you points are very accurate ... I still see nothing 'bad' in this concept.  The fact that we as a society are not prepared for deflation does not inherently make it.  thanks so for your post.
If you are sitting on a pile of cash, then no problem. If you depend on a job, big problem.   
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

hawgbawb

Price of oil dropping fast. If it hits $70/bbl the frackers and tar sanders will say "frack-it."
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

john c

It isn't a minor deflation that would be a problem but my understanding is that a deflat"ing" economy is much scarier than an inflat"ing" one, insomuch that a deflating economy is much more sensitive, especially as that affect the banks and associated underlying loan asset values and securities firms as margin account calls may get triggered.  Many more things to go wrong.  One economics person told me that in inflation you lose purchasing power and in deflation there is the prospect of losing everything.  Hence, why economist like a small level of inflation always as a buffer against deflation.  One guy described it as walking along a mountain pass road.  Fall to one side and you land on the road and some rocks.  Fall off the other side and it's a long ways down.

ricepig

Modest inflation is good for all.

vandybuff

Quote from: ricepig on October 17, 2014, 01:22:44 pm
Modest inflation is good for all.
with respect to you, "no more so than modest deflation" ... it is just that we are taught to only play one side of the market ..... and there are obviously two sides.  Thanks and have a great weekend!
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

vandybuff

Quote from: hawgbawb on October 16, 2014, 02:27:40 pm
Price of oil dropping fast. If it hits $70/bbl the frackers and tar sanders will say "frack-it."
I think of domestic production, the lowest cost field are the Permian Basin, where break-even is calculated to be $51 - $53 bbl.  I have been told Bakken and Eagle Ford will still run at $58, but I have not seen that from an authoritative source.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

ricepig

Quote from: vandybuff on October 17, 2014, 02:22:48 pm
with respect to you, "no more so than modest deflation" ... it is just that we are taught to only play one side of the market ..... and there are obviously two sides.  Thanks and have a great weekend!

Let me correct my statement, modest inflation is good for me! Top grade farmland has doubled in Arkansas in 8 years, I don't need deflation, haha.

As my dear old departed broker used to say, the Bulls get some, the Bears get some, the Hogs get slaughtered.....doesn't sound good on a Razorback message board....

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: vandybuff on October 16, 2014, 12:45:49 pm
With utmost respect ... and you points are very accurate ... I still see nothing 'bad' in this concept.  The fact that we as a society are not prepared for deflation does not inherently make it.  thanks so for your post.

Holy crap. Let me get out the bright orange crayon. DEFLATION = SHRINKING ECONOMY = GREAT DEPRESSION = DEATH SPIRAL.
[CENSORED]!

Dumb ole famrboy

Quote from: vandybuff on October 17, 2014, 02:26:12 pm
I think of domestic production, the lowest cost field are the Permian Basin, where break-even is calculated to be $51 - $53 bbl.  I have been told Bakken and Eagle Ford will still run at $58, but I have not seen that from an authoritative source.

But as the cost of oil goes down - the producers variable cost go down. Breakeven isn't what will keep the fields in production. Contribution margin would ultimately determine critical mass.

vandybuff

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 17, 2014, 03:27:01 pm
Holy crap. Let me get out the bright orange crayon. DEFLATION = SHRINKING ECONOMY = GREAT DEPRESSION = DEATH SPIRAL.
I beg to differ, but that's the beauty of differing opinions.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

vandybuff

Quote from: Dumb ole famrboy on October 17, 2014, 03:28:03 pm
But as the cost of oil goes down - the producers variable cost go down. Breakeven isn't what will keep the fields in production. Contribution margin would ultimately determine critical mass.
Very good point, but the oil patch is more of an 'inelastic' cost structure.  Now let's look at the big picture:  with horizontal drilling and tracking, we could (if legal and distribution considerations were overcome) provide most of the world with the oil.  To be fair, nat gas would be a more difficult hill to climb due to overseas transportation.
The real soap opera is what OPEC will do ... so far, nothing. 

Please encourage your state and federal legislators to adopt a common sense and profitable policy for our condensate energy.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

BENTON PIGGEE

Quote from: vandybuff on October 17, 2014, 02:22:48 pm
with respect to you, "no more so than modest deflation" ... it is just that we are taught to only play one side of the market ..... and there are obviously two sides.  Thanks and have a great weekend!

With modest deflation comes wage cuts which leads to decreased spending which leads to more wage cuts. The illusion(with mild inflation) that people are getting raises are what keeps the sheep (or their stupid wives) happily spending their money instead of saving it, which is what our system needs to function.
Avatar courtesy of root66

vandybuff

Quote from: BENTON PIGGEE on October 17, 2014, 10:13:10 pm
With modest deflation comes wage cuts which leads to decreased spending which leads to more wage cuts. The illusion(with mild inflation) that people are getting raises are what keeps the sheep (or their stupid wives) happily spending their money instead of saving it, which is what our system needs to function.

Well said, and in the short run of deflation (or more plainly said till the government raises tax rates), while your gallon of milk still costs the same minutes of your pay, you may get a little boost with being in a lower income tax rate.  There is no difference in my lifestyle if my income and my costs go up or down, so long as the changes are essentially at the same rate.

Now, the real problem is the event we have seen in the last six years (and caused and/or allowed by both parties) where there is not only no adherence to a budget but often no budget.  Just look at the U. S. equity market today ... after a couple of down weeks, the market came knocking on Yellen's door like a junkie needing a fix .... and the anticipation of her approval was pure gold. 

And if you want to see real pain, you need look no further than your hardworking neighbor who retired and put in all into certificates of deposit .... and now is living on roughly one/fifth the income he or she had six years ago.
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

hawgbawb

This market is up over 200% since 2009, and we are experiencing the 4th longest bull market since 1928, without even a 10% correction since 2011. Much of it is due to the amount of money pumped into the economy to prevent further deflation.

One of the problems with deflation is that people and businesses tend to hold onto their money because it gains purchasing power over time. This slows the economy, raises unemployment, and furthers the deflationary spiral.
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 17, 2014, 03:27:01 pm
Holy crap. Let me get out the bright orange crayon. DEFLATION = SHRINKING ECONOMY = GREAT DEPRESSION = DEATH SPIRAL.
Where is FDR when you need him?
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

vandybuff

Quote from: HoginMemphis on October 19, 2014, 09:39:56 am
Where is FDR when you need him?
I feel quite comfortable with where he is now - hahahahaha!
What a wonderful time to rediscover the hobby for a lifetime - a great book!!!

A happy life is doing something "that matters".  So start today!!!!!

userpick

Quote from: BENTON PIGGEE on October 06, 2014, 10:25:51 pm
Good idea, especially if oil is still going down and ebola is still in the headlines. No flights to Africa. I put a limit order in for some LUV today.

Glad to see LUV recovering. After fees, I'm up about 4.5% this month. I expect ALK to have a big next couple of weeks.

BILLYBOB

Quote from: hawgbawb on October 18, 2014, 07:54:05 am
This market is up over 200% since 2009, and we are experiencing the 4th longest bull market since 1928, without even a 10% correction since 2011. Much of it is due to the amount of money pumped into the economy to prevent further deflation.

One of the problems with deflation is that people and businesses tend to hold onto their money because it gains purchasing power over time. This slows the economy, raises unemployment, and furthers the deflationary spiral.

You're normally a pretty smart guy. But as a stock investor, you are a failure. You're doing EXACTLY what you are not supposed to do. You are timing the market. You think you know when the market is overvalued. I guaren-damn-tee you...you do not know. No one knows. You best put that money back in a diversified portfolio of dividend paying (and raising) stocks and LEAVE IT THE FJCK ALONE. You may get luckly once or twice...but at some point, you are going to make a mistake that is going to cost you dearly. No one can time the market. You best have some humility. Listen to me.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." ~Charles Bukowski

BILLYBOB

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 17, 2014, 03:27:01 pm
Holy crap. Let me get out the bright orange crayon. DEFLATION = SHRINKING ECONOMY = GREAT DEPRESSION = DEATH SPIRAL.

Pretty much nailed it...
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." ~Charles Bukowski

HotlantaHog

Deflation can be a disaster. See the Great Deprssion or Lost Decade in Japan. Or what Europe is facing right now. People hold on to cash because it's worth more and pays to wait. Consumer spending declines. It is also a disaster for the banks -- value of collateral declines, so you can end up with a financial crisis and lending tightening.

There is no deflation in the U.S. U.S. CPI today is 1.7% (measured by PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure, it is 1.5%) Inflation has been below the Fed's target, which is 2%. Market measures of inflation expectations have been dropping because of Europe and falling oil prices. There is a decent chance inflation will be under 2% for the next 5 years or even 10 years, based on inflation expectations.

The U.S. is not in a danger zero for deflation, and with the economy picking up in the second half and next year, inflation should edge higher, in the view of most economists.

HotlantaHog

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 14, 2014, 01:50:41 pm
I heard somebody today saying the holiday season would be more online/by mail than expected because some people won't want to go into crowded places - Ebola fear. Heh. If that's true then nobody's gonna win.

There are a couple people in the U.S. who have contracted Ebola -- evidently because the hospital they worked at had terrible protocols and was ridiculously underprepared for treating the disease. We know how it is spread -- by contact or being in very close proximity to someone who is sick with it. It is not spread easily. Amazingly, most Americans seem to realize this and most Americans have confidence in the government to contain it -- even though the CDC made some misteps and there is a general lack of confidence in most institutions (like Congress or Obama).

There is no evidence I have seen to suggest Ebola is affecting consumer behavior in any significant way in the U.S. ...  That is not to say it's not possible, if 2 multiplies into dozens or hundreds ...

By the way, thousands of people die each year from the flu. There are plenty of reasons to take precautions... and get a flu shot!

hawgbawb

Quote from: BILLYBOB on October 22, 2014, 03:22:23 am
You're normally a pretty smart guy. But as a stock investor, you are a failure. You're doing EXACTLY what you are not supposed to do. You are timing the market. You think you know when the market is overvalued. I guaren-damn-tee you...you do not know. No one knows. You best put that money back in a diversified portfolio of dividend paying (and raising) stocks and LEAVE IT THE FJCK ALONE. You may get luckly once or twice...but at some point, you are going to make a mistake that is going to cost you dearly. No one can time the market. You best have some humility. Listen to me.
I agree with you for the most part, BB. I needed the cash anyway for business start-up and was a little too vested in stocks.  The high valuations in September just made it easier to justify.
I post, therefor I am.
John Highsmith Adams rocks.