Wishful Thinking or Reasonable Prediction???

[Bogghawg]

Sweeps verses Ole Miss and Tennessee, 2 out of 3 verses aTm and Vandy for a final record of 22-8, regular season SEC champs and National Seed.

[JHicks3636]

Sweeps verses Ole Miss and Tennessee, 2 out of 3 verses aTm and Vandy for a final record of 22-8, regular season SEC champs and National Seed.

I'm as big of a Hog fan as possible and I say big time wishful thinking.

[Bogghawg]

I'm as big of a Hog fan as possible and I say big time wishful thinking.

What part is the most to least likely in your opinion?

[Kevin]

Do that national seed

[TeufelHog]

After what I saw tonight in KC . . . WISHFUL THINKING.  Unfortunately, our pitching is just not deep enough.

[HogFansReunited]

It is possible but I don't see it happening.

[razCzar]

Wishful thinking.

Looking at our schedule back on April 1, I predicted 22-8.

Results since have tempered the optimism a little...

Now would be pleased with 20-10

[JHicks3636]

I don't think we sweep anyone left and I'm looking at A&M to win 2 of 3. They have been playing well lately.

[HogFansReunited]

After what I saw tonight in KC . . . WISHFUL THINKING.  Unfortunately, our pitching is just not deep enough.

Honestly our pitching is just over worked right now. Glad that midweek games are finally over. We should be much better off after this weekend.

[philiphog]

I think we get a 2 game sweep of Ole Miss this weekend with the 3rd game getting rained out, sweep Tennessee, win 2 out of 3 against Vandy, and win 1 out of 3 against ATM.

[rljjr]

Win 2 of 3 of each of the remaining series, hopefully. Would be nice to sweep OM, but they pitch well and our bats have seemed to have gone a bit cooler than red hot. That said, I have a feeling that old magic returns for at least two games this series and I think we're due for some of those shots down the 3rd base line to go fair.

[jry04]

After what I saw tonight in KC . . . WISHFUL THINKING.  Unfortunately, our pitching is just not deep enough.

We will be fine. We are about to have zero mid-week games the rest of the way, so our guys will get rest. I think we have clearly found something in Reindl and Murphy. Kostyshock may have earned himself some innings on the weekend, too. Alberius being moved to the pen if we do in fact start Murphy may be good, too. The only guys we truly need to be concerned about is Loseke and Chadwick, in my opinion. Those guys give up free passes every time they touch the field now.

[hogman64]

Honestly our pitching is just over worked right now. Glad that midweek games are finally over. We should be much better off after this weekend.

if Cronin, Murphy and Reindl all keep improving and Knight and Stephan, get back to where they were our pitching situation would drastically change.......As for Chadwick looks to me he goes as his first batter faced goes, if he hits the first guy I would get him out.  When he was good at Auburn , he was good from the very first pitch until he started hitting people about 3 + innings later.

[southarkhog06]

I hope to win 20 and lock up a host spot, this may be a year where we rest players in the SEC tourney. Knight looked tired last weekend, our whole Bullpen looks tired, Koch looks tired. I may let Gosser catch against a righty one weekend even.

[LJHOG]

With our pitching I think 18 - 12 is where we will finish.

[tucsonhogfan]

I am also worried that some of our guys seem to be in a small slump at the plate.  They are having too many pop ups and leaving too many runners in scoring position lately.

[jry04]

I am also worried that some of our guys seem to be in a small slump at the plate.  They are having too many pop ups and leaving too many runners in scoring position lately.

Possibly, but I also think we were getting a bit spoiled. I definitely think a few guys are slumping because their numbers prove it. However, as a whole, we are still hitting well. We could use a little more timely hitting as of late, but since the LSU series we have scored an average of 8 runs per game. I mean we scored 6 runs last night despite only having 1 hit through the first 4 innings. We have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of our last 10 games. Our offense usually has a game each weekend where they struggle, but overall our biggest concern right now is getting more innings out of our starting pitching to take pressure off our bullpen.

[Kenny Dowell Loggains]

20 SEC wins + 2 wins in the tourney should be good enough.  you get to 40-42 wins in the regular season as an SEC school, and it's tough not to award a National seed, or at least be one of the higher regional (non-national) seeds.

Unless we poop the bed the remainder of the season, we should be a lock for a regional.

*Should be* is the key.  We've all seen crazy scenarios play out where they will award another host site because too many teams in one conference have good enough regional resumes.  If that's the case, I'm 100% certain Hogs will get screwed out of a regional.  Because that's the life of a Hog fan.

[jbell96]

Possibly, but I also think we were getting a bit spoiled. I definitely think a few guys are slumping because their numbers prove it. However, as a whole, we are still hitting well. We could use a little more timely hitting as of late, but since the LSU series we have scored an average of 8 runs per game. I mean we scored 6 runs last night despite only having 1 hit through the first 4 innings. We have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of our last 10 games. Our offense usually has a game each weekend where they struggle, but overall our biggest concern right now is getting more innings out of our starting pitching to take pressure off our bullpen.

100% agreed. I really think most of our guys slumping at the plate will greatly benefit from no more midweek games, Koch especially, since he hasn't gotten much time off as of late and he seems really worn down.

[TNhawgfan]

What part is the most to least likely in your opinion?

National seed is the least likely. We aren't even locks to host. We lose another series or two, and I could see us a 2 seed in the regional.

[jry04]

National seed is the least likely. We aren't even locks to host. We lose another series or two, and I could see us a 2 seed in the regional.

I think we are definitely a 2 seed if we lose 2 more series. If we go 3-1 down the stretch in series and avoid a sweep in our lone series loss, then we are hosting. That would mean we are at worse finishing 40-15 (19-11). Go 2-2 in the SECT and we enter the tournament with a 42-17 record overall, plus a top 15 RPI and top 35 SOS.

By comparison, last year Ole Miss hosted at 43-17, MSU hosted at 41-16-1, USC hosted at 42-15, Vandy at 43-17, FSU at 37-20, LSU at 42-18, UVA at 37-20, ULL at 41-19, and so on. You get the picture. 7 teams hosted from the SEC last season. I think at most 5 will this year. 40 wins and a top 4 finish in the SEC with a top 15 RPI pretty much locks us as a host. Losing 2 series from here on makes that very unlikely barring an SEC tourney run. Going 7-5 or better down the stretch and we will be playing here to start the tournament.

[hogman64]

I am also worried that some of our guys seem to be in a small slump at the plate.  They are having too many pop ups and leaving too many runners in scoring position lately.

Koch and Gates back to back is a big problem right now, I expect them to be split this weekend, hopefully one or both will get back in the groove.....obviously both can be good hitters , just presently  not getting it done.

[jry04]

Koch and Gates back to back is a big problem right now, I expect them to be split this weekend, hopefully one or both will get back in the groove.....obviously both can be good hitters , just presently  not getting it done.

What is discouraging is both have came to the plate with RISP, too. It isn't like teams are able to pitch around Koch often. They have had guys on with multiple scoring opportunities and come up empty. When a guy like Koch comes to the plate and there is nowhere to put him, you expect him to do good things. At the start of the season I felt every time he was at the plate he was going to deliver. That isn't the case at this point in the season, but I definitely think he will bounce back as we start playing less games. You can even tell in his throws that there seems to be something off. He had a cannon to start the season and teams seemed to be scared to run on him. Now all of his throws to second base seem to be off the mark.

[tennesseehogwild]

I don't think we sweep anyone left and I'm looking at A&M to win 2 of 3. They have been playing well lately.

This! Tenn. series will be tougher than most think. All road series are tough.

[Hawgzinbowlz]

20 wins would be outstanding...22 seems to be somewhat optimistic.

With the forecast for this Ole' Miss weekend we will be fortunate to get 3 games completed.
The forecast on tonights KNWA 6 o'clock Fayetteville news with Dan Skoff has it at 60% Friday with a chance of "many severe" thunderstorms ; 90% Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms and flash flooding ; 60% chance of showers on Sunday with a total of 3"-6"+ of additional rain this weekend.
Hope we get them in...

" GO OMAHOGS "

[TNhawgfan]

This! Tenn. series will be tougher than most think. All road series are tough.

Their Friday night starter is good, and they did win their series at Florida

[jry04]

20 wins would be outstanding...22 seems to be somewhat optimistic.

With the forecast for this Ole' Miss weekend we will be fortunate to get 3 games completed.
The forecast on tonights KNWA 6 o'clock Fayetteville news with Dan Skoff has it at 60% Friday with a chance of "many severe" thunderstorms ; 90% Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms and flash flooding ; 60% chance of showers on Sunday with a total of 3"-6"+ of additional rain this weekend.
Hope we get them in...

" GO OMAHOGS "

Yeah we will be fortunate to get 2 in if we do not reschedule our Saturday game. Next to no chance we play Saturday.

[ricepig]

Yeah we will be fortunate to get 2 in if we do not reschedule our Saturday game. Next to no chance we play Saturday.

The series has to be over by Saturday night, per SEC rules. Also, if it's a DH on Saturday, it's two 7 inning games.

[jry04]

The series has to be over by Saturday night, per SEC rules. Also, if it's a DH on Saturday, it's two 7 inning games.

I think you misunderstood what I said. We are not playing a DH Saturday because we will not be playing any game on Saturday. Strong storms with 100% chance of rain all day Saturday. If we are getting all 3 in we will have to play a DH Friday. However, our Friday night game is on TV so they may not play a DH on Friday since there would be a risk that game 1 goes over and game 2 does not start on time. Unfortunately, TV may cost us getting 3 in this week.

[ricepig]

I think you misunderstood what I said. We are not playing a DH Saturday because we will not be playing any game on Saturday. Strong storms with 100% chance of rain all day Saturday. If we are getting all 3 in we will have to play a DH Friday. However, our Friday night game is on TV so they may not play a DH on Friday since there would be a risk that game 1 goes over and game 2 does not start on time. Unfortunately, TV may cost us getting 3 in this week.

I was just stating the rules, as to playing Saturday, it's only Wednesday, the forecast can change, haha.

[jry04]

I was just stating the rules, as to playing Saturday, it's only Wednesday, the forecast can change, haha.

Alright, well I thought since you quoted me you were thinking I felt we may play 2 on Saturday.

Forecast could change, but I doubt it does enough. Only shot we have of playing Saturday is to hope this storm does not have lightning and we just play the entire game in rain.

[ricepig]

Well you quoted me, so I thought you were talking to me...

Forecast could change, but I doubt it does enough. Only shot we have of playing Saturday is to hope this storm does not have lightning and we just play the entire game in rain.

And I was just telling you that we couldn't extend it to Sunday, in case you weren't aware.

[jry04]

And I was just telling you that we couldn't extend it to Sunday, in case you weren't aware.

Got it. I honestly was not sure how that worked. However, I did not think it would be an option. I still say it is DH Friday or we will be playing 2 at most. I guess we will see, though. Thursday becomes even more important with the threat of a shortened series. I am ready to see Knight back to his dominant ways.

[ricepig]

Got it. I honestly was not sure how that worked. However, I did not think it would be an option. I still say it is DH Friday or we will be playing 2 at most. I guess we will see, though. Thursday becomes even more important with the threat of a shortened series. I am ready to see Knight back to his dominant ways.

Me too, I know he says he's fine, but his velocity was down against Georgia, and we know he couldn't spot it where he wanted to at Auburn. Hopefully he's good to go.

[WizardofhOgZ]

More likely . . .

Win 1-0 vs. Ole Miss (remainder of series scrapped due to weather), win 3 of 6 vs. Tenn and A&M (road series), and win 2 of 3 vs. Vandy.  That's 6 of 10 remaining games, 39-15 and 18-10 headed into Hoover.

Most likely an RPI between 10 and 15, and host a first round Regional.

IMO, that's much more reasonable and likely than the scenario the OP proposed.

We'll find out soon enough.