Arkansas Baseball resume and RPI

[BroyledNutts]

Game 3 was the tonic for going down to Tennessee. We will win the series and hopefully sweep them. We need that at this point, and it's not out of the realm of possibility. Ever the optimist!

If this team intends to stay in the race, not only for a division title but for a host possibility, a sweep at Tennessee has now become a necessity.

[ThisTeetsTaken]

Stating the obvious but the Hogs can't wait much longer to get hot again.   I think they need some R&R more than anything right now. 

[jry04]

Stating the obvious but the Hogs can't wait much longer to get hot again.   I think they need some R&R more than anything right now. 

Luckily we have a bottom 4 team in the SEC coming up. Very sweepable series coming up, and a sweep puts us right back in the SEC West hunt, and in the driver's seat for a host.

[tennesseehogwild]

Hogs are one of only 7 teams to win 34 games or more so far.

[jry04]

RPI is at 16 and our SOS is at 43 now. Our SOS is up about 10 spots this week, and RPI down 4. It could be a lot worse. UT is 44th in the RPI, so playing them on the road we will jump up winning the series a few spots. If we sweep we will be pretty close to the top 10. Rhode Island is 45th, so we currently have 11 top 50 wins.

Arizona was swept for a 2nd straight weekend, and West Virginia lost a 2nd straight series to an unranked opponent. Both teams were projected as hosts entering the week.

[jbell96]

If this team intends to stay in the race, not only for a division title but for a host possibility, a sweep at Tennessee has now become a necessity.

While I hope we sweep Tennessee this weekend, it's not a necessity to have a chance at hosting. If we go 6-3 over the final 3 series, that puts us our regular season record at 40-15 overall, 19-11 in the SEC, we'll be a lock to host if that is the case.

In the weekly chat on d1baseball.com, I asked Aaron Fitt, one of the top college baseball writers in the country, what it would take for us to host a regional and he said we would have a good shot at hosting even if we finish 18-12 in league play.

[fademe]

Edit: saw they were posted in another thread

[razCzar]

While I hope we sweep Tennessee this weekend, it's not a necessity to have a chance at hosting. If we go 6-3 over the final 3 series, that puts us our regular season record at 40-15 overall, 19-11 in the SEC, we'll be a lock to host if that is the case.

In the weekly chat on d1baseball.com, I asked Aaron Fitt, one of the top college baseball writers in the country, what it would take for us to host a regional and he said we would have a good shot at hosting even if we finish 18-12 in league play.

First, thanks for being active in the Chat on behalf of the Hogs, Jon!

... and here is Aaron's reply verbatum:
https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseballs-weekly-chat/
Aaron Fitt:
That is indeed a big "if" because series vs. Vandy and at Texas A&M will be challenging, but Arkansas is also capable of doing it. And yes, if they win those last three series, there's no question they will host. They could still very well host by winning two of their last three — which would probably get them to 18-12 in the SEC. Most SEC teams that go 18-12 wind up hosting.

I'm encouraged by his last sentence.
After going over the remaining schedules of the top 5 in the West after the past weekend, it worked out that all five likely finish 18-12 or better: 

CUR               REMAINING               FINAL
14-7   AU:     AL, @LSU, OM     6-3   20-10
14-7   MSU:  @AM, @GA, LSU   6-3   20-10
13-8   AM:    MSU, @OM, AR    6-3   19-11
13-8   LSU:    SC, AU, @MSU    5-4   18-12
13-8   AR:    @TN, VU, @AM    5-4   18-12
[And that's not even including FL and KY]

With such a 7-team logjam, my concern is going 18-12 and still not hosting. 
Conversely, go 6-3, finishing 19-11, and we're "in".

[TikiHog]

This is one year where the Conference Tournament is gonna matter...we really need that bye on Tuesday

[jry04]

First, thanks for being active in the Chat on behalf of the Hogs, Jon!

... and here is Aaron's reply verbatum:
https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseballs-weekly-chat/
Aaron Fitt:
That is indeed a big "if" because series vs. Vandy and at Texas A&M will be challenging, but Arkansas is also capable of doing it. And yes, if they win those last three series, there's no question they will host. They could still very well host by winning two of their last three — which would probably get them to 18-12 in the SEC. Most SEC teams that go 18-12 wind up hosting.

I'm encouraged by his last sentence.
After going over the remaining schedules of the top 5 in the West after the past weekend, it worked out that all five likely finish 18-12 or better: 

CUR               REMAINING               FINAL
14-7   AU:     AL, @LSU, OM     6-3   20-10
14-7   MSU:  @AM, @GA, LSU   6-3   20-10
13-8   AM:    MSU, @OM, AR    6-3   19-11
13-8   LSU:    SC, AU, @MSU    5-4   18-12
13-8   AR:    @TN, VU, @AM    5-4   18-12
[And that's not even including FL and KY]

With such a 7-team logjam, my concern is going 18-12 and still not hosting. 
Conversely, go 6-3, finishing 19-11, and we're "in".

I agree about 18-12. We probably aren't hosting at 18-12 unless we win a couple games in the SECT, or other SEC teams who are around us tank. 7 SEC teams hosted last year, but there were also 0 west coast teams who hosted. This year, there are potentially 4 teams west of Texas who could host. Long Beach State, Oregon State, Stanford, and Arizona are all in the mix. Oregon State is a lock for a national seed, but after that all 3 or just 1 of those 3 could wind up hosting. Another team to watch is WVU. They have an RPI of 11 and a good SOS, but it is because they have played 26 games on the road due to weather. They have just 7 top 50 wins, so we need to hope for them to struggle down the stretch since we could be competing with them for a host spot as well.

I personally think the SEC gets 5 hosts, but could potentially get 6 depending on what Arkansas, LSU, Vandy, and A&M do down the stretch. A&M has a lot of work to do being 35th in the RPI, but winning their last 3 series will put them right there in the mix. Vandy is a bit of a reach, but they do have an RPI of 25, SOS of 11, and finish with Missouri, Arkansas, and Alabama. If they win all 3 series they will be in the top 20 and have 12+ top 50 wins.

[jbell96]

First, thanks for being active in the Chat on behalf of the Hogs, Jon!

... and here is Aaron's reply verbatum:
https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseballs-weekly-chat/
Aaron Fitt:
That is indeed a big "if" because series vs. Vandy and at Texas A&M will be challenging, but Arkansas is also capable of doing it. And yes, if they win those last three series, there's no question they will host. They could still very well host by winning two of their last three — which would probably get them to 18-12 in the SEC. Most SEC teams that go 18-12 wind up hosting.

I'm encouraged by his last sentence.
After going over the remaining schedules of the top 5 in the West after the past weekend, it worked out that all five likely finish 18-12 or better: 

CUR               REMAINING               FINAL
14-7   AU:     AL, @LSU, OM     6-3   20-10
14-7   MSU:  @AM, @GA, LSU   6-3   20-10
13-8   AM:    MSU, @OM, AR    6-3   19-11
13-8   LSU:    SC, AU, @MSU    5-4   18-12
13-8   AR:    @TN, VU, @AM    5-4   18-12
[And that's not even including FL and KY]

With such a 7-team logjam, my concern is going 18-12 and still not hosting. 
Conversely, go 6-3, finishing 19-11, and we're "in".

Yeah I could see this being one of those years where we got 18-12 and not end up hosting because of the projections you posted. If we sweep UT this weekend, then we can afford to go 3-3 in our last two series to finish 19-11.

I've said this many times this week in many different threads, but I really think no more mid week games and extra time off is exactly what this team needed for the stretch run. They played 9 games in an 11 day span, in four different cities, and maybe one of those games wasn't a high stress game, so by the end of that OM series, they were completely gassed. I think we'll see these guys bounce back with a vengeance this weekend.

[jbell96]

https://d1baseball.com/projections/field-64-projection-may-3/

Hogs dropped out of hosting in this week's projections. Listed as a 2 seed in Fort Worth. They really didn't put much time and effort in to this week's picks, they listed Jackson State & Wright State as 4 seeds in two separate regionals.

[jry04]

https://d1baseball.com/projections/field-64-projection-may-3/


2 seed in Fort Worth.

They do not seem to have put as much thought in this one, though. They fixed it, but originally posted with Jackson State in 2 different regionals. They still have Wright State in 2 different regionals. They also put Southern Miss as a host. Southern Miss is #21 in the RPI, 7-5 v top 50 opponents, 1 series victory over a top 50 opponent (#44 Louisiana Tech), and a SOS of 72. They have just 1 victory over a top 25 team. They also happen to be within 3 hours of 2 other projected hosts (MSU and LSU). I am not sure the reasoning for projecting them as a host, but I highly doubt the committee will award a borderline host team like USM a regional when there are more deserving teams, and they make a perfect 2 seed in Starkville or Baton Rouge.

By comparison, Arkansas is #16 in RPI, 11-9 v top 50, we have a SOS of 43, we have 2 series wins v top 50 opponents (#48 Rhode Island, #17 MSU), and we have 6 top 25 victories.

[TikiHog]

https://d1baseball.com/projections/field-64-projection-may-3/

[jry04]

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=627682.200

Some discussion on it here as well. Lots of head scratching with this projection. Good thing is it is a month out so a lot will change.

[Kevin]

Just win   6-3 get a host spot for sure

[yraciv]

That draw wouldn't be fun. Think Stanford drops a couple this week to Arizona St and falls back out.

[jry04]

That draw wouldn't be fun. Think Stanford drops a couple this week to Arizona St and falls back out.

That would be nice. WVU plays @ TTU. We need them to lose, too. They are hosting in some projections and a 2 seed in others. I would rather all the teams on the bubble of hosting lose.

The good news is LSU plays Aub and MSU in 2 of the next 3 weeks so we know someone ahead of us will be losing 2 times. LSU could lose both an eliminate their shot at hosting. I wouldn't mind Auburn beating them, and then them beating MSU.

Just win   6-3 get a host spot for sure

Agreed

[fademe]

Baseball America's latest projection

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-3-college-baseball/#cqpKJDC4BoP9q5Fl.97

[Sho Nuff]

That would be nice. WVU plays @ TTU. We need them to lose, too. They are hosting in some projections and a 2 seed in others. I would rather all the teams on the bubble of hosting lose.

The good news is LSU plays Aub and MSU in 2 of the next 3 weeks so we know someone ahead of us will be losing 2 times. LSU could lose both an eliminate their shot at hosting. I wouldn't mind Auburn beating them, and then them beating MSU.

Agreed

LSU could lose both and still host, they always get preferential treatment.

[jbell96]

LSU could lose both and still host, they always get preferential treatment.

It's possible, but I doubt it. They're basically on the edge of hosting/not hosting right now. If they go 4-5 the last 9 conference games the odds of them hosting aren't good.

[BroyledNutts]

Baseball America's latest projection

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-3-college-baseball/#cqpKJDC4BoP9q5Fl.97

What the hell is the deal with continually pairing us with North Carolina? Granted, this may not be the way the selection committee goes, but I'm getting tired of seeing this on every BA projection.

[dotnet]

CUR               REMAINING               FINAL
14-7   AU:     AL, @LSU, OM     6-3   20-10
14-7   MSU:  @AM, @GA, LSU   6-3   20-10
13-8   AM:    MSU, @OM, AR    6-3   19-11
13-8   LSU:    SC, AU, @MSU    5-4   18-12
13-8   AR:    @TN, VU, @AM    5-4   18-12

That is an amazing finish by the SEC west if that projection happens.  I would tell my grandkids about it.. and they would probably tell their robot overlords about it as well

[dotnet]

What the hell is the deal with continually pairing us with North Carolina? Granted, this may not be the way the selection committee goes, but I'm getting tired of seeing this on every BA projection.

Sure, but the BA projection is a million times better than the D1 projection.  I'll take WV, or most teams, over TCU please.

[BroyledNutts]

Sure, but the BA projection is a million times better than the D1 projection.  I'll take WV, or most teams, over TCU please.

BA has TCU as the #4 national seed, D1 has TCU as the #8 national seed ... quite a discrepancy in projection. If I had to go with one I'd take D1 - It's a regional we could win, and we'd get another shot at LSU in the supers ... only thing I wouldn't like is the incessant whistling the crowd does down there at TCU.

Want no part of WVA ... they can pitch, they can rake, and they're an older club than we are - be like Auburn all over again.

[TikiHog]

nm

[jry04]

BA has TCU as the #4 national seed, D1 has TCU as the #8 national seed ... quite a discrepancy in projection. If I had to go with one I'd take D1 - It's a regional we could win, and we'd get another shot at LSU in the supers ... only thing I wouldn't like is the incessant whistling the crowd does down there at TCU.

Want no part of WVA ... they can pitch, they can rake, and they're an older club than we are - be like Auburn all over again.

WVU has just 7 top 50 wins, and have a team ERA of 4.27. They also have a team fielding % in the low .970s where as Auburn has elite starting pitching, and WVU does not. WVU will be lucky to host when it is all said and done. They had to play 26 road games early because of poor weather, so their rpi/sos is through the roof. Other than that they do not have a good resume.

Definitely a solid team that could beat us, but there are other teams I would worry about over WVU.

[Kevin]

Wvu plays Texas tech this weekend then finishes the regular season at Texas

[jbell96]

BA has TCU as the #4 national seed, D1 has TCU as the #8 national seed ... quite a discrepancy in projection. If I had to go with one I'd take D1 - It's a regional we could win, and we'd get another shot at LSU in the supers ... only thing I wouldn't like is the incessant whistling the crowd does down there at TCU.

Want no part of WVA ... they can pitch, they can rake, and they're an older club than we are - be like Auburn all over again.

So you would rather play a team loaded with talent, who has been to Omaha 3 years in a row, over a team that is largely unproven? Not saying WVA isn't any good, but if I had to choose a regional to be in as a 2 seed, it sure as heck wouldn't be with TCU.

[jry04]

Wvu plays Texas tech this weekend then finishes the regular season at Texas

Hoping for a TTU sweep of WVU.

[Kevin]

Hoping for a TTU sweep of WVU.

yep

[dotnet]

Not saying WVA isn't any good, but if I had to choose a regional to be in as a 2 seed, it sure as heck wouldn't be with TCU.

Lets list all the teams I would rather face TCU than:

Oregon State

[jry04]

Lets list all the teams I would rather face TCU than:

Oregon State

And maybe TTU. That would be it.

[jbell96]

Lets list all the teams I would rather face TCU than:

Oregon State

On my list I'd add UNC & TTU.

[TikiHog]

dropped to 19 on Nolan's SOS is 44

[Cmheinley]

Can't help but wonder if having the third game against Tennessee cancelled won't end up buying us

[Cmheinley]

Biting us*

[jry04]

Back up to 16 after the win. We are 12-10 v RPI top 50, 17-12 v top 100. Hopefully we can win the series v Vandy and get back on track. It would set up a huge final week @ A&M.

[tennesseehogwild]

Question? Even with their high rpi's....do you guys think Baylor, Arizona. and West Virginia would host over us with losing conference records? All 3 are ahead of us in RPI.

[ucahogfan]

Question? Even with their high rpi's....do you guys think Baylor, Arizona. and West Virginia would host over us with losing conference records? All 3 are ahead of us in RPI.

Any team with a losing conference record should never be allowed to host a regional regardless of their RPI.  That means that the team is below average in their own conference and probably have an inflated RPI based on something else.  If 18 wins is generally considered hosting worthy in SEC play, that should be the standard for all conferences (or their equivalent of 18 conference wins).

[jacobp]

LA Tech surging late can't hurt either. RPI up to 37 with 7 straight wins

[BroyledNutts]

Question? Even with their high rpi's....do you guys think Baylor, Arizona. and West Virginia would host over us with losing conference records? All 3 are ahead of us in RPI.

Considering the fickle unpredictability of the selection committee, it's a possibility ...

RPI and SOS are heavy factors in selection - you'd have to look at top 50/top 100 wins for those teams, as that also plays heavy - they will look at where those wins and losses came ... at home, neutral, or away...there's also the "spread it around" mentality of the committee ... too many candidates from the SEC and not enough from one of the other Big 5s, particularly west coast areas, will result in some SEC team(s) being left out of hosting.

[jry04]

Question? Even with their high rpi's....do you guys think Baylor, Arizona. and West Virginia would host over us with losing conference records? All 3 are ahead of us in RPI.

WVU shouldn't. They have just 7 top 50 RPI wins. Their RPI and SOS are high because they play in a part of the country impacted by weather early in the season. They play a lot of winnable games on the road early. They have played almost twice as many road games as home games.

[jbell96]

Question? Even with their high rpi's....do you guys think Baylor, Arizona. and West Virginia would host over us with losing conference records? All 3 are ahead of us in RPI.

Of the three teams you listed, I think Arizona is the only one that will end up hosting. They just swept Washington this past weekend and have a favorable schedule down the stretch. The other two have lost way too many series in league play to be considered as a host.

[jbell96]

Hogs moved up to 15 in the RPI last night thanks to West Virginia taking a terrible loss to Penn State & LSU losing to South Alabama at home. Also, Auburn lost to UAB and their RPI dropped to 40.

[Wisco Pig]

Hogs moved up to 15 in the RPI last night thanks to West Virginia taking a terrible loss to Penn State & LSU losing to South Alabama at home. Also, Auburn lost to UAB and their RPI dropped to 40.

Good night for the Hogs, yes.  Baylor also slipped below Arkansas by winning at home but against Prairie View A&M, which is ranked #285 in the RPI.   Also, the gap between #14 Arizona and Arkansas (#15) has narrowed after the Wildcats' loss at home to Arizona State yesterday.

There's plenty of room for improvement this weekend.   The Hogs' RPI is only .031 below that of the #11 team, Wake Forest.

[jbell96]

After last night, Hogs moved up to 14 in the RPI ahead of Arizona.

[Hogs49ers]

Can someone that understands RPI explain to me how Missouri State is ranked ahead of us still?  I keep looking at it from all angles and just cannot for the life of me come up with any reason for why they would be ranked ahead of us?

#16 Hogs: SOS- 45, 35-13, Top 50: 12-10, 50-100: 8-2, 100-200: 8-1, 200+: 7-0  (Plus we beat them 12-4 at their place, not that that should even matter)

#14 Missouri St.: SOS- 50, 33-14, Top 50: 2-4, 50-100: 9-7, 100-200: 18-3, 200+: 4-0

WHY??

[Kevin]

You get more points for winning a road game than home.  Any team that wins more games on the road will have a scued rpi number.

I think it is .7 higher than a home win

[HogFansReunited]

Can someone that understands RPI explain to me how Missouri State is ranked ahead of us still?  I keep looking at it from all angles and just cannot for the life of me come up with any reason for why they would be ranked ahead of us?

#16 Hogs: SOS- 45, 35-13, Top 50: 12-10, 50-100: 8-2, 100-200: 8-1, 200+: 7-0  (Plus we beat them 12-4 at their place, not that that should even matter)

#14 Missouri St.: SOS- 50, 33-14, Top 50: 2-4, 50-100: 9-7, 100-200: 18-3, 200+: 4-0

WHY??

They probably have more games away from home, only reason I can think of but I haven't done any research.