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The player rotation is falling into place fast

Started by Biggus Piggus, October 11, 2016, 10:22:06 am

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Biggus Piggus

According to those who know...

PG Barford, Beard
SG Hannahs, Jones
WG Macon, Watkins <= top defenders
High post Thomas, Bailey
Low post Kingsley, Thompson

PF Arlando Cook can be a sub at both forward positions, but he did not start off well and is now in the doghouse.

F Brandon Hazen is kind of a power forward/wing combo who probably needs some time to work into a role. He has good potential.

G R.J. Glasper is a good walk-on who will play someday.

The top 10 is very much locked in, and it's the best-looking full rotation Arkansas has had since MA took over.

The top five there were the ones who played best as a unit in Spain. MA also likes how Beard | Jones | Watkins | Bailey | Thompson play together.

The parts they have to settle out = substitution patterns and other combinations to deal with certain matchups. But the nice part is that every starter has a reasonably effective backup.

The starting five is powered on the offensive end by Kingsley and Hannahs. They are a great 1-2 threat. Macon, Barford and Thomas add to Kingsley's rebounding prowess; this group should score a lot off offensive boards and fouls.

Barford is a tough, strong guard who can go to the hole, passes well and has a midrange game. It will be interesting to see how Macon evolves his offensive game to fit in.

Macon is an excellent stopper guard on defense, and Barford, Thomas and Kingsley work well with him. Hannahs will never be an ace, but he's not exposed the way he was with Bell.

Beard has really upped his game after last year was so disrupted. He can drive or drift out for the three, and his defense is improved.

Jones is a perfect sub for Hannahs in about every way. The guy is a scoring machine, has very good versatility, can handle, is rangy. Also isn't strong on defense yet.

Watkins is a solid man defender who can rebound. He works well when the Hogs have two guards on the floor who can score. In the past, he had to play a lot regardless of whether the lineup had any scoring.

Bailey is about 6-6, listed at 204, but he looks stronger than Michael Qualls did as a freshman. Like Qualls, Bailey can really get up. Unlike Qualls, Bailey seems to have a taste for mixing it up inside. Maybe Bailey will develop into more of a perimeter player, but for now he is an energy, boards and deflections guy.

I have a feeling they will need Cook at some point when Bailey can't handle his matchup.

Everybody seems to be satisfied with Thompson's development. MA's urging Thompson to shoot more often, as he has been deferring to others. Also, MA continues to work on using Kingsley and Thompson in the lineup together. However, MA likes the way Kingsley plays when he has depth behind him. Kingsley conserved energy last season because he had to play too many minutes, and it affected his production on defense.

In general, this team will have more teeth in its motion offense. More passes will turn into points. And this team will defend.
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Dominicanhog

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 11, 2016, 10:22:06 am
And this team will defend.

Excellent updates, nice to finally hear something... your last statemetn is teh telling one from my perspective... all of Nolan's and Mike's best teams could play D, score off the D and wear the other teams down with depth... hopefully that's what we have this year, lord knows it wasn't the case last year.

Also agree about Cook being needed.. maybe Thomas can handle the "other big" but would be nice to have a couple options with height..

 

Biggus Piggus

They still do not have a whole group of players who hunger to play defense, but they can find five who love playing D if they want to now. That is a big change.
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hogwood

Thank you for the excellent post BP. I am very excited about the season. Just bought tickets to a couple games!

I think Bailey surprises us all with what he will bring to the 2nd unit and the team as a whole. Great energy guy, and is extremely athletic and strong. Out of everyone I am the most excited to watch him play.

Dominicanhog

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 11, 2016, 11:38:22 am
They still do not have a whole group of players who hunger to play defense, but they can find five who love playing D if they want to now. That is a big change.

just being able to defend the 3 pt line will be a major improvement and would have won us several games a year ago.

FineAsSwine

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 11, 2016, 11:38:22 am
They still do not have a whole group of players who hunger to play defense, but they can find five who love playing D if they want to now. That is a big change.

Guessing that our defensive unit would be Kingsley, Thomas, Watkins, Macon and Beard/Barford. Bailey could become a go to defensive guy with more seasoning perhaps. Not sure about Thompson yet, although he has the potential have a much bigger impact defensively this year.

FineAsSwine

Cook, Glasper and Hazen bringing up the rear for now it seems. Which of these is most likely to stick it out and carve out a space in the top 7 of the rotation whether this year or next for Cook and by their junior seasons for Glasper and Hazen?

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: FineAsSwine on October 11, 2016, 12:02:26 pm
Cook, Glasper and Hazen bringing up the rear for now it seems. Which of these is most likely to stick it out and carve out a space in the top 7 of the rotation whether this year or next for Cook and by their junior seasons for Glasper and Hazen?

I really do not know. Much of the buzz about Cook has been negative, but it's only a few datapoints, so I don't know what it's worth. Glasper is in a good group of guards, and he will have to wait his turn. Hazen is not strong like a four, and he needs to polish his skills (and gain stamina) to play the three in this system. People should be patient with him.
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phadedhawg

Starting to get exciting and I can feel hope returning...


Dominicanhog

Quote from: phadedhawg on October 11, 2016, 02:31:45 pm
Starting to get exciting and I can feel hope returning...

shuuuu.. they'll hear you.. keep hope to yourself.

SouthTulsaHog

The starting rotation looks great, but I'm just wondering, for the second rotation, where would the scoring come from. I feel like we need someone on the bench, that can light a spark and fill it up a bit.

FineAsSwine

Quote from: SouthTulsaHog on October 11, 2016, 02:48:37 pm
The starting rotation looks great, but I'm just wondering, for the second rotation, where would the scoring come from. I feel like we need someone on the bench, that can light a spark and fill it up a bit.

Jones may be looking like one good option.

hobhog

I really like the combo of Thompson at high post, Moses low. It was really productive last year. Wish we had another Big to spell them both....

 

HawgHoops

Quote from: SouthTulsaHog on October 11, 2016, 02:48:37 pm
The starting rotation looks great, but I'm just wondering, for the second rotation, where would the scoring come from. I feel like we need someone on the bench, that can light a spark and fill it up a bit.

I think they should start Watkins and let Macon play with the 2nd unit. Watkins has no offensive ability so put him with Mo, Hannahs, and Barford. Macon can fill it up apparently.

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: SouthTulsaHog on October 11, 2016, 02:48:37 pm
The starting rotation looks great, but I'm just wondering, for the second rotation, where would the scoring come from. I feel like we need someone on the bench, that can light a spark and fill it up a bit.

Jones was a machine in Spain. Beard is playing better than ever, now that he can enter a season without spending months away from the team like last season. His shot is better than before. Thompson has shown very solid skills and just needs to be more assertive about taking his shots. They score fine. They scored well in Spain. They are better now.
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Biggus Piggus

Quote from: HawgHoops on October 11, 2016, 06:49:22 pm
I think they should start Watkins and let Macon play with the 2nd unit. Watkins has no offensive ability so put him with Mo, Hannahs, and Barford. Macon can fill it up apparently.

This makes not a lick of sense, and it will not happen. You don't demote the best defensive guard on the team just so you can replace him with the second-best defensive guard on the team who is a lesser scorer. Why on earth would you do that?
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Pig Worshipper


What kind of a rebounding team will we have this year? It has definitely been a concern in the past. Also, have we added some "road warriors" who can play tough in places like Lexington or Gainesville and bring home a win? Thank you for the informative analysis.

Jonteviosk

Quote from: Pig Worshipper on October 11, 2016, 08:27:08 pm
What kind of a rebounding team will we have this year? It has definitely been a concern in the past. Also, have we added some "road warriors" who can play tough in places like Lexington or Gainesville and bring home a win? Thank you for the informative analysis.

Give it a rest already about the road...The ast 3 seasons we had more road wins that the previous 15 combined. So will you please let it go already?
You never know in advance what the outcome of any given situation is so either get busy living or get busy dying.

Pork Twain

Thanks for the update.  Nice to continue to here good news heading into the season.
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

The_Iceman

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 11, 2016, 08:11:58 pm
This makes not a lick of sense, and it will not happen. You don't demote the best defensive guard on the team just so you can replace him with the second-best defensive guard on the team who is a lesser scorer. Why on earth would you do that?

Because if you have all of your scoring in the first unit, your scoring will drop off when Mike does his mass subs. Macon would still end up on the floor at the end of games, but when you have a coach that runs his 2nd unit as much as Mike does, it doesn't hurt to make sure you have a good scorer in that 2nd group.

Just my guess.

FineAsSwine

While I do like the OP's starting five, I would agree that scoring might be an issue for the 2nd unit especially if they all come in around the same time without staggered substitutions.

Macon or Hannahs would seem to be candidates for coming off the bench but I don't think we will see Hannahs in that role, if anyone, it seems most likely to be Macon who would probably still get starters minutes though.

Danny J

Quote from: The_Iceman on October 12, 2016, 06:45:03 am
Because if you have all of your scoring in the first unit, your scoring will drop off when Mike does his mass subs. Macon would still end up on the floor at the end of games, but when you have a coach that runs his 2nd unit as much as Mike does, it doesn't hurt to make sure you have a good scorer in that 2nd group.

Just my guess.
I would consider it as well for the exact point you made about the way CMA likes to play/sub. There are only X amount of shot attempts and I think our starting 4 minus Macon will have no issue getting those shots up. I also see it Biggus' way also. I wouldn't have an issue either way. It's nice to finally have the talent and depth to be able to move spots around

nwahogfan1

Great job Biggus.   Good thoughts and insights in your report. 

Discussion thoughts.   If Mike likes to use Trey and Moses at the same time then I wonder why he does not recruit more 4/5 types?  Seems like he is recruiting more 3/4 types?






HoopS

I can see what some are saying but I also lean toward the starting lineup with Macon in it.

If Beard, Jones and Thompson play up to their potential, we will have scoring in that second unit.

But also remember that the units will be mixed and matched as the game plays out. It's not like each unit stays exactly the same no matter what the whole game. There will be tweaks based on game tempo, matchups, fouls, etc. I hope for good energy out of the second unit when they first hit the floor. Watkins and Beard need to come in and be a spark on D. Push the tempo and when it slows down work to set CJ up or Trey.

 

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: Danny J on October 12, 2016, 09:15:14 am
I would consider it as well for the exact point you made about the way CMA likes to play/sub. There are only X amount of shot attempts and I think our starting 4 minus Macon will have no issue getting those shots up. I also see it Biggus' way also. I wouldn't have an issue either way. It's nice to finally have the talent and depth to be able to move spots around

I don't believe the goal here is to do entire platoon substitutions. They have reasonable substitutes for every starter.
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Little Lady Back

Thanks for the update, Biggus. So ready for the b-ball season to begin. Can't wait!!
#NolanRichardsonCourt

FineAsSwine

Red-White roster (my own projection)

WHITE                   RED     
     
Barford        vs       Beard
Macon                    Hannahs
Jones                     Watkins
Cook                     Thomas
Kingsley                Thompson
Hazen                    Bailey

Glasper                 Haydar

Mostly old vs new. Would be interesting to see who would lead the white team in scoring other than Kingsley.


Danny J

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 12, 2016, 11:00:26 am
I don't believe the goal here is to do entire platoon substitutions. They have reasonable substitutes for every starter.
Yeah...it's hard to know what CMA is going to do and I honestly believe there will be a "feeling out" process done over the first part of the season. I am anxious to see how we come together as a team and we both know that substitutions and rotations will be a major talking point going forward with the quality depth I believe we now have.

FineAsSwine

Quote from: Danny J on October 12, 2016, 12:11:21 pm
Yeah...it's hard to know what CMA is going to do and I honestly believe there will be a "feeling out" process done over the first part of the season. I am anxious to see how we come together as a team and we both know that substitutions and rotations will be a major talking point going forward with the quality depth I believe we now have.

Also, there will always be someone that Hogville believes should be getting more playing time. My guess is that this year that guy will be Hazen.

ShadowHawg

Quote from: FineAsSwine on October 12, 2016, 12:36:33 pm
Also, there will always be someone that Hogville believes should be getting more playing time. My guess is that this year that guy will be Hazen.

So you are saying Hazen will be the backup qb?

FineAsSwine


Breems

Thanks for the roundup.

If we have even 1 guard that can drive the lane just once in a blue moon, I may cry tears of joy.
Proud member of the "Left Before Halftime" football club.

Quote from: Breems on January 27, 2011, 08:42:29 pm<br />SCREW VANDERBILT<br />

Swinesong1

Quote from: Breems on October 12, 2016, 10:08:27 pm
Thanks for the roundup.

If we have even 1 guard that can drive the lane just once in a blue moon, I may cry tears of joy.
Make that two grown men crying.  Lol

FineAsSwine

Quote from: Breems on October 12, 2016, 10:08:27 pm
Thanks for the roundup.

If we have even 1 guard that can drive the lane just once in a blue moon, I may cry tears of joy.

Hawg Bawl?  :razorback:

Letsroll1200

Quote from: The_Iceman on October 12, 2016, 06:45:03 am
Because if you have all of your scoring in the first unit, your scoring will drop off when Mike does his mass subs. Macon would still end up on the floor at the end of games, but when you have a coach that runs his 2nd unit as much as Mike does, it doesn't hurt to make sure you have a good scorer in that 2nd group.

Just my guess.

I was thinking that Watkins would start over Macon. That's only because I believe that Macon could get more touches with the second unit and not put so much pressure on Jones to create offense.

Biggus Piggus

The notion of "second unit" is probably the wrong way to look at this bunch, but we'll see how it plays out.
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FineAsSwine

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 13, 2016, 08:47:28 am
The notion of "second unit" is probably the wrong way to look at this bunch, but we'll see how it plays out.

I would agree. More likely to see a top 7 or 8 with others getting increased or decreased roles depending on foul trouble, matchups and other factors.

Biggus Piggus

MA has said this very clearly:

He is trying to develop rotations that will enable everybody to play hard and not have to worry about getting rest.

This is the element of his/Nolan's strategy that he's trying hard to reinstitute. It hadn't been there, because the rotation wasn't there.

Every year they had at least a couple of players who were essential and had no reasonable backup. His system will not work right without a flexible rotation of players.

This roster is closer to what MA needs to enable him to push everybody to max effort. If we end up having to play Kingsley 35 minutes because we can't afford to rest him, the rest won't work. They know who the 10 are. Now they have to work out the substitution patterns.

The defense will be there if the Hogs can play 9-10 without much dropoff. It has to be more than 7-8. The system won't work with 7-8.
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hogwood

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 13, 2016, 11:35:25 am

The defense will be there if the Hogs can play 9-10 without much dropoff. It has to be more than 7-8. The system won't work with 7-8.

Exactly!!

The_Iceman

You can play Kingsley a lot of minutes, but keep him well rested. It's the Jerry Sloan tactic he used with Stockton and Malone. You take them out right before a tv timeout, that way they get that possession off, the entire timeout, the first possession after the timeout, and the he's back in. He may only miss 60-90 seconds of gametime, but get 5+ minutes of total rest.

FineAsSwine

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 13, 2016, 11:35:25 am
The defense will be there if the Hogs can play 9-10 without much dropoff. It has to be more than 7-8. The system won't work with 7-8.

There will be a core of players, a top 7 or 8 if you will and the 9 through 10 and so forth will be whoever is hot at the time. There will be 9 - 10 guys every night but the tail end of the rotation will be fluid. This keeps the entire roster engaged. I've seen Nolan do this often back in the day.

Biggus Piggus

Minutes distribution of the 1988-89 Razorbacks (fun season):

31 G Mayberry
29 G Wilson
27 G-F Howell
23 G-F Day
22 F Credit
20 F Miller
18 G Bowers
18 F Marks
9 G Whitby
9 G Hawkins

Eight core players, one spot shooter, one freshman utility player.

The 1990-91 team:

32 G Mayberry
30 G-F Day
27 G Bowers
25 F Miller
21 G-F Huery
17 F Morris
15 G Murry
13 F Wallace
9 F Fletcher

Those are the players who were regulars.

The 1993-94 team:

29 F Williamson
29 G Thurman
26 G Beck
22 G McDaniel
21 F Stewart
18 F Robinson
18 G Crawford
12 G-F Rimac
10 F Wilson

On this team, who gets close to 30 minutes other than Kingsley?
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Biggus Piggus

MA's best Missouri team:

28 F Carroll
26 G Taylor
25 G Tiller
23 F Lyons
21 F Lawrence
17 G Denmon
14 G-F English
14 F Ramsey
11 G Paul
9 F Safford
6 F Bowers

I bet this season looks a lot like the above distribution.
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HawgHoops

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on October 11, 2016, 08:11:58 pm
This makes not a lick of sense, and it will not happen. You don't demote the best defensive guard on the team just so you can replace him with the second-best defensive guard on the team who is a lesser scorer. Why on earth would you do that?

Well unfortunately, not all of us get to watch the team before regular season starts. I had no idea Macon was such a force on D. Assumed Watkins was still the best.
We obviously don't need Watkins to score. If you think about the "2nd unit" last year, there was NO scoring. With the first unit having Moses, Barford, and Hannahs on the court, we obviously shouldn't need much more scoring. From what I've heard Macon can score a lot too. With what we have seen from Thompson, he can be way too passive, regardless of gained jump shot ability. I'm not sure MA can ever get him to start pulling the trigger. We will need someone to compliment Jones(depending on which Anton Beard we get this year), that's why I thought you would put Macon with the 2nd unit.

Either way, whatever MA does. There is no doubt this team is full of athletes and guys that can score. I really believe it's gonna be a fun season! Trying not to drink the koolaid too much though haha!

The_Bionic_Pig

If Beard is anywhere near his Freshman form both he and Jones are very good at creating their own shot.
█ ▆ ▅ ▄ ▃ ▂ ▁ *Mute*

azhog10

I think it's going to come down to staying out of the bonus on defense. I'm not worried as much about foul trouble unless your name is Kingsley, but I am worried about the pace and giving away easy points. If we can keep teams off the foul line and the game from being slowed down via the whistle then we have a shot to be a very good team.

Obviously this is a big IF.

mhuff

Gonna come down to whether we have two people in the paint who can score. We also need guards that can finish at better than a 40% rate and shoot FT's at an acceptable rate. Oh yeah, might think about playing some defense. That concerns me the most.

blu

Hopefully, based on the OP, we can really step up the perimeter D. That killed us last season.
"But it is no shame to suffer for being a Christian. Praise God for the privilege of being called by His name!"  I Peter 4:16

MS_HogFan

I want back on the bandwagon. Y'all got room?
SOOIE

FineAsSwine