Hogs in the SEC: A thought on our expectations

[PigWig]

When determining expectations at Arkansas, I think you have to look at a couple of different data ranges:  our overall record since joining the SEC and our record in the 12 game schedule era.  Here is a breakdown, starting with Ford's first year in 1993 and ending with the point Bielema took over, of where Arkansas stands.

In the 11 game era:
Ford:  26-30 (16-24)
Nutt:  67-40 (31-33)

Total:  93-70 (47-57)
Average:  7-5  with 3.6 SEC wins/season

In the 12 game era:
Nutt:  18-8 (11-5)
Petrino:  34-17 (17-15)
JLS:  4-8 (2-6)

Total:  56-33 (30-26)
Average:  8-5 with 4.3 SEC wins/season

So there you have it.  Over the last two decades, you can count on Arkansas averaging around a .500 SEC record, and winning the majority of their non-conference games.  That equated to a 7 win average in the 11 game era and an 8 win average over 12 game era before Bielema's arrival.

What we have typically seen is a cyclical pattern.  We don't usually just go 8-5 every year, but we will have a 1-2 year build that culminates in a couple of good seasons, followed by another 1-2 year rebuild.   This was evidenced by Ford's final two seasons leading up to Nutt's 17-7 start at Arkansas.  We then had another couple of rebuilding years (6-6, 7-5) before winning 18 games from 2002-2003.  Again we had a rebuild during the "two year pass" before again winning 18 games from 2006-2007.  The next rebuild was when Petrino retooled his roster in 2008-2009 before rattling off 21 wins in his final two seasons.  Just to further illustrated this idea, here's a quick graph that illustrates our builds and peaks since Ford's first year: 



So this brings us to the big question.  What is a reasonable expectation at Arkansas?  Based on history, fans should expect a coach to average 8 wins (4 SEC wins) per season with cycles of fair seasons followed by good seasons.  There is no precedence for a coach to win 10 games per year at Arkansas (in the SEC era), but a coach who isn't at least winning 9-10 games every few years is underachieving.

[KennyForAD]

Now that makes sense.  Good job.

[PorkSoda]

a .500 conference record has always been the bench mark for me.  the SEC is tough.  if we win half our conference games we are pretty good.  5-3 or better is a great year, while 3-5 or less is a poor year.