Realistic Expectations

[Atlhogfan1]

I wouldn't say Petrino faced a down West.  But 5 of our 6 SEC wins in 2011 came against bad teams (SEC record 9-31). 

[KennyForAD]

The west is MUCH different now than when Petrino was here. Bielema would have gone 21-5 also, or maybe better over that span with the weak western division. Both Mississippi schools were dumpster fires, A&M had Sherman coaching with far less talent, Auburn was recovering after Cam left and was terrible. Bobby didn't beat anybody but LSU while he was here. Also, in Petrino's entire career he has never beaten a top 10 team on the road. Ever. The success during his tenure at UA was more due to a down SEC rather than a "great coach" as you claim. Look at the bowl game Louisville had vs LSU. He had the heisman trophy winner and couldn't put the ball in the end zone. Bobby OR any other coach over the past 2 seasons would not have done any better.

Pretty sure I said, 'good coach.'   Do you really think we are as good now as we were then?  I don't, but what does it matter?   The point the OP made was that we have an AVERAGE as a lifetime program and we should not complain that we are currently performing at our lifetime average.   The point I've been trying to make is that that is a fatally flawed argument.  Does Kentucky Basketball accept performing at its lifetime average?   Does Notre Dame Football?   Does Vanderbilt?   Does anyone? 

The idea is to be the best you CAN be, not to be your own average, and therefore LESS than you've been for HALF of your own history.

[lakecityhog]

It took that much math to come up with a 5 game spread?? I am truly impressed!

I haven't read a single post stating that we expect a coach to come in and win 10 games every year. Nor I have I read a single post that asks for us to win the SEC every year.

What I have read are posts expecting us to AVERAGE 8 or so wins per year. Doing that would mean an occasional bad year of 6-6 or maybe even 5-7 and then a few good years of 10-2 or maybe even 11-1. A 10-2 year would mean that we have probably at the least challenged for the division title.

I think that most of us want to be competitive in our games and not get blown out by 53 points. They want us to play well in the 4th quarter, you know, when it REALLY matters? Most people would be much happier if we didn't lose games to the teams that we shouldn't lose games to.

Most people wouldn't be upset if we didn't have a history of giving up leads in the 2nd half because we look totally inept! Hell, if you play checkers you try to look at least 1 or 2 moves ahead! Can we not ever go into half time and anticipate at least some of the adjustments that our opponent will make and try to counter them??

Are those unrealistic expectations?

[KennyForAD]

I don't think it is the record this year or for the past few years that has most fans in an uproar. 7-6 isn't great but is not that far from the rest of the SEC, except for Alabama.

I think what people are upset about is the cluelessness of the coaching staff and evident lack of motivation by the players. That Arkansas can lose to an 8-4 Auburn team by 52-3, that it can blow a big halftime lead against the worst team in the SEC, that it can blow a 24-point lead in a bowl game ... the original poster is the math genius not me, but I am guessing those are 1% events... certainly the odds they occur in one season are less than 1%.

Has Bielema apologized, explained how they occurred, or said what he would do to make sure they would not happen again? Ohio State made the national championship playoffs and got blown out, and you had Urban Meyer saying it was unacceptable and it would never happen again. Maybe he will be right or maybe it will be bluster. But he seems to be deeply shocked and disappointed by his team's performance, again a team that finished No. 3 in the nation.

Where is there any sign that Bielema gets how horrible his team's performance has been? Again it is not about 7-6. It is about the utter cluelessness and evident lack of motivation of the team in three key losses, two ending the season.

Right!   

[HotlantaHog]

If I am reading correctly, Hogs can expect to win between 3 and 11 games 90% of the time ... That means with the right conditions Hogs can get to 10 or 11 wins... and the 10% in which the Hogs are above 11 or below 3, we can hope they will be mostly above 11... even John L Smith managed more than three...

Which says those kind of outlier performances of 10 or 11 game seasons are entirely to be expected now and then.... with the right coach.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

If I am reading correctly, Hogs can expect to win between 3 and 11 games 90% of the time ... That means with the right conditions Hogs can get to 10 or 11 wins... and the 10% in which the Hogs are above 11 or below 3, we can hope they will be mostly above 11... even John L Smith managed more than three...

Which says those kind of outlier performances of 10 or 11 game seasons are entirely to be expected now and then.... with the right coach.

So once a decade we will finish either with 2 or 12 wins in a season?  I'd say that % is high.

[hogsanity]

So once a decade we will finish either with 2 or 12 wins in a season?  I'd say that % is high.

Been the program history for the last 50 years. Occasionally jump up and get a 10+ win season, anc occasionally drop off the 3 or 4 wins.

[KennyForAD]

Been the program history for the last 50 years. Occasionally jump up and get a 10+ win season, anc occasionally drop off the 3 or 4 wins.

Maybe 25, but not 50.

[hogsanity]

Maybe 25, but not 50.

go add up the numbers and then come back to us on that.

But ok, since they joined the SEC, the conference they are in now and will be for the forseeable future, so they are a 7.5 win a year team.

[KennyForAD]

go add up the numbers and then come back to us on that.

But ok, since they joined the SEC, the conference they are in now and will be for the forseeable future, so they are a 7.5 win a year team.

You're claiming we had occasional 3 win seasons from 66 to 91, and you're telling ME to go look up the numbers?    I don't think I will.   I think YOU should.

[hogsanity]

You're claiming we had occasional 3 win seasons from 66 to 91, and you're telling ME to go look up the numbers?    I don't think I will.   I think YOU should.

No, I am saying, that on average they are a 7-8 win a season team. How they get to that average is not the issue. The issue is that is what they are and have been for decades, yet for some reason people think they are something else.

[lakecityhog]

So you post the 3-4 win thing for dramatic effect?

Look, if you are satisfied with mediocrity that is fine. But please quit trying to convince the rest of us that we should accept it too.

[GrouchyOldGuy]

I don't understand the deviation but I know that our last two games were not well played and we need to bite the bullet and find another AD then a new HC. But the cost is too much we are in a mess!

[007 License To Squeal]

I don't understand the deviation but I know that our last two games were not well played  coached and we need to bite the bullet and find another AD then a new HC. But the cost is too much we are in a mess!

Fixed it for you

[hogsanity]

So you post the 3-4 win thing for dramatic effect?

Look, if you are satisfied with mediocrity that is fine. But please quit trying to convince the rest of us that we should accept it too.

We have had a 3 win season and a 4 win season in the last 10 years, and a 10 win and a 11 win season too.

Who said anything about being satisfied?  All some of us are saying is do not act like this is a 10 win a year program that is suddenly under performing.

[12247]

HotlantaHog knows.  He speaks truth.  Just read his posts

[KennyForAD]

No, I am saying, that on average they are a 7-8 win a season team. How they get to that average is not the issue. The issue is that is what they are and have been for decades, yet for some reason people think they are something else.

Can you name another program where this argument is made?  Do you think Texas fans add up their average wins and argue that they should be happy with any coach who achieves that average?   Does anyone else make this argument?  No.  Of course not.  Its an absurd argument which ignores the obvious fact that for a large part of its history, the team was BETTER than its average, and with the right coaching can obviously be again.  Regardless, the win total is not the concern.  People are concerned with the obvious trend of being out-coached in games, falling apart in the second half, and with the apparent disregard of a defense that performs consistently among the worst in the league.   These are legitimate concerns.  To answer them with, "Well, we are winning our historical average" is ... silly.   If we are average for our history, then we are LESS than we have been and less than we CAN be... by definition.   Why would you EVER make that argument in defense of a coach?    Isn't it really a solid argument AGAINST a coach?   

[Sir Oinksalot]

" ... And it's Fatass by a nose".

[12247]

Realistic Expectations:  1.  To come ready to play, conditioned, enlightened on what the opponent will likely do, mentally ready to do battle for 4 quarters.  The HC appears all about the game, down in to it, encouraging the players, explaining what they just did wrong or right, interacting with the assistants often, looking refreshed, ready mentally and physically for the second half.  Knowing enough about your team to know each player and what they offer.  Don't be more surprised than John Q. Public when a sub finally get in the game and shows out.  Have a real second string, especially the QB.  Give every team more than they thought you could, win or lose.  If you have a goob for an assistant, get the hell rid of him even to letting him go during the season and taking his place until you can find a good replacement.  Make sure you have a mix of recruiters in your assistant selection and as HC, work on your delivery to prospective recruits as that is your legacy.  Look like you really want to be at the game as a HC and as a team.

Fix these expectations and the win/loss record will take care of itself.  Sadly, everything I mentioned above can be attained without more money, without better talent, without more time to reach these goals,  without better facilities, even with this AD.  Every problem we have starts with the HC and are correctable.  No sane Hog Fan expects to win 9 or more every year. 

This very damn season should have been 9 wins, pretty easy.  Forget the stats, averages, injuries, and all that, we should have easily won 9 this damn year and sadly, we were bad this year without those two grossly unacceptable losses.

[KennyForAD]

Realistic Expectations:  1.  To come ready to play, conditioned, enlightened on what the opponent will likely do, mentally ready to do battle for 4 quarters.  The HC appears all about the game, down in to it, encouraging the players, explaining what they just did wrong or right, interacting with the assistants often, looking refreshed, ready mentally and physically for the second half.  Knowing enough about your team to know each player and what they offer.  Don't be more surprised than John Q. Public when a sub finally get in the game and shows out.  Have a real second string, especially the QB.  Give every team more than they thought you could, win or lose.  If you have a goob for an assistant, get the hell rid of him even to letting him go during the season and taking his place until you can find a good replacement.  Make sure you have a mix of recruiters in your assistant selection and as HC, work on your delivery to prospective recruits as that is your legacy.  Look like you really want to be at the game as a HC and as a team.

Fix these expectations and the win/loss record will take care of itself.  Sadly, everything I mentioned above can be attained without more money, without better talent, without more time to reach these goals,  without better facilities, even with this AD.  Every problem we have starts with the HC and are correctable.  No sane Hog Fan expects to win 9 or more every year. 

This very damn season should have been 9 wins, pretty easy.  Forget the stats, averages, injuries, and all that, we should have easily won 9 this damn year and sadly, we were bad this year without those two grossly unacceptable losses.

But... We won seven games, and historically our average is 7.34793281.  Therefore, your expectations are way out of line, sir.

[12247]

Let me say this about the averages that is being tossed about right now.  BB hasn't reached any of them.  Well has he.  To average those numbers, sometimes you must exceed them unless you are right on them at all times.  This coach is at the top of his current game and anyone swearing they can see light at the end of the tunnel is just sunshine pumping.  BB had a chance to exceed the average this season and sorely failed in a down year for the SEC.  Throw that into the stats mixer.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Been the program history for the last 50 years. Occasionally jump up and get a 10+ win season, anc occasionally drop off the 3 or 4 wins.

That I know, but that's not what he posted.  You keep talking about 3 or 4 wins.  Or 10 or 11 wins.  When was the last time this program ended the year with with less than 3 wins or more than 11 wins?...because That's what was stated would happen 10% of the time.  You apparently concurred.

[Athog]

8 wins on avg over a period of time

Ceiling higher when things come together like schedule and rare for us offensive talent plus a competent defense.  Must have a coach who can maximize those seasons.   

Based on what you want?? Don't know what you are basing  your facts on?

[Atlhogfan1]

Based on what you want?? Don't know what you are basing  your facts on?

?  Which part are you confused about?

[Oklahawg]

8 wins a year are the expectations. 10 wins a year are the hope.

I like this.

Would seem to keep you perpetually in the discussion, once every few years you are "in the mix", and maybe every couple of "in the mix" years you get there. We've never sustained the "in the mix" years (or, using your term which I like, "hope").

[majp51]

Interesting , however there are some variances you don't, and honestly can't, account for. The first is the quality of the coaching hire. While in the SEC can you name a single HC that left here and was better after they left here? To date we only have one coach that might fit that bill, CBP, however looking at the curb stomping he took from Houston and LSU, my guess is he will be no better than he was here, possibly just a bit worse.

With all the other HC being much worse after leaving here, Since 1992, are we certain it is just what we are, or just who we've have picked?

If we had the exact same coach from 1992-2016. Then the numbers would mean a lot more.

The numbers also lack context. For example HDN's record is artificially inflated because the SEC West was so weak during his tenure. As we know so well this year not every 7-6 season is equal. How do you adjust for that?

[Oklahawg]

We have had a 3 win season and a 4 win season in the last 10 years, and a 10 win and a 11 win season too.

Who said anything about being satisfied?  All some of us are saying is do not act like this is a 10 win a year program that is suddenly under performing.

Thank you.

[Oklahawg]

Interesting , however there are some variances you don't, and honestly can't, account for. The first is the quality of the coaching hire. While in the SEC can you name a single HC that left here and was better after they left here? To date we only have one coach that might fit that bill, CBP, however looking at the curb stomping he took from Houston and LSU, my guess is he will be no better than he was here, possibly just a bit worse.

With all the other HC being much worse after leaving here, Since 1992, are we certain it is just what we are, or just who we've have picked?

If we had the exact same coach from 1992-2016. Then the numbers would mean a lot more.

The numbers also lack context. For example HDN's record is artificially inflated because the SEC West was so weak during his tenure. As we know so well this year not every 7-6 season is equal. How do you adjust for that?

Short of Urban Meyer there aren't many coaches who have left the SEC at any school and been more successful away from the SEC than they were in the SEC. (Saban, too, I guess, he left and came back to the SEC).

Not sure what to make of that.

[KennyForAD]

Interesting , however there are some variances you don't, and honestly can't, account for. The first is the quality of the coaching hire. While in the SEC can you name a single HC that left here and was better after they left here? To date we only have one coach that might fit that bill, CBP, however looking at the curb stomping he took from Houston and LSU, my guess is he will be no better than he was here, possibly just a bit worse.

With all the other HC being much worse after leaving here, Since 1992, are we certain it is just what we are, or just who we've have picked?

If we had the exact same coach from 1992-2016. Then the numbers would mean a lot more.

The numbers also lack context. For example HDN's record is artificially inflated because the SEC West was so weak during his tenure. As we know so well this year not every 7-6 season is equal. How do you adjust for that?

Post of the Year

[Oklahawg]

While not holding a PHD in statistics, I would think that the OP's data normalizes a lot of things over time.

A different way of saying that is the longer we are distanced from the 4-8 year the more likely we are to have a 10-2 year.

We are all guilty of a type of "proximity bias" - because we are so close to two really bad losses (Mizzou, Va Tech) we lack the capacity to place them within a context that provides meaningful insight. You will note the admission - "really bad losses" - so this isn't an apology. I guess a way to help the skeptics is to ask this: if we can win 10 games next year and play in one of the big bowls (Group of Six, or whatever they are called this year) would that be sufficient payback for the two "really bad losses"? If we were to have to wait 2 years for that big season would it still be endurable? What is the long-term "line in the sand" that prevents the average fan from accepting two "really bad losses" to end the season?

Too many who are on a rant right now seem like there is no acceptable outcome beyond firing CBB (and maybe shipping off Long to boot). I realize that some are chiming in with outcomes but that really needs to be part of the metric at this point (after all, we've read enough griping and complaining - maybe its time to place it in some sort of meaningful context beyond the CBB era).

[Oklahawg]

The other issue when going through the SEC era of coaching hires: how many before we allow for trends or patterns? The insistence that UA can hire "The Guy" who turns us into an immediate juggernaut gets more irrational the longer we go without that actually happening.

[KennyForAD]

While not holding a PHD in statistics, I would think that the OP's data normalizes a lot of things over time.

A different way of saying that is the longer we are distanced from the 4-8 year the more likely we are to have a 10-2 year.

We are all guilty of a type of "proximity bias" - because we are so close to two really bad losses (Mizzou, Va Tech) we lack the capacity to place them within a context that provides meaningful insight. You will note the admission - "really bad losses" - so this isn't an apology. I guess a way to help the skeptics is to ask this: if we can win 10 games next year and play in one of the big bowls (Group of Six, or whatever they are called this year) would that be sufficient payback for the two "really bad losses"? If we were to have to wait 2 years for that big season would it still be endurable? What is the long-term "line in the sand" that prevents the average fan from accepting two "really bad losses" to end the season?

Too many who are on a rant right now seem like there is no acceptable outcome beyond firing CBB (and maybe shipping off Long to boot). I realize that some are chiming in with outcomes but that really needs to be part of the metric at this point (after all, we've read enough griping and complaining - maybe its time to place it in some sort of meaningful context beyond the CBB era).

I don't see the losses as anything to 'make up for.'  I see those losses, the many other games in which we were outplayed in the second half, and the problems on defense, as evidence that our coaching is not what it should be.   If we win ten games next year and go to a big bowl then I would expect that my concerns will have been alleviated. 

But that isn't necessary for me.  All I want is to be well coached and competitive.  We could go 6-6 next year and my concerns could be alleviated, just the same. 

[lakecityhog]

Okla, I for one don't have any real issue with Long. I do think that bumping the buyout with the extension was a bad decision. But, we all make a bad decision every now and then.

I honestly don't want BB fired for several reasons and most are selfish. The football program needs stability, we've had enough 3 year coaching lifespans. We need to develop an identity, something that we can hang our hat on for the next 25 years.

Now the simple truth is that I just don't expect for him to be able to ever establish us as a consistent 3rd or even 4th place team in the SEC West. Talk about trends, in 4 years we have lost games in the 2nd half every year. Sometimes multiple games with good leads. We have managed a couple of times to overcome those 2nd half collapses and win on a last second play or in OT.

Every year for 4 years we have had at least 1 WTH loss, losing to a team that we should have beat or getting blown out badly. I think that almost everyone on this board would have to admit that we struggle to close out games. We seem to really struggle with halftime adjustments, our own and anticipating the opponent adjustments.

And the worse tend that I have seen over the last 4 seasons is we don't seem to be improving fundamentally. After 4 years our tackling is still horrendous. After 4 years we are still very undisciplined, way too many pre-snap penalties, we fail way too often to maintain fundamental techniques and all of these things have gotten progressively worse.

Should we expect these things to suddenly change? In year 5 or year 6 is BB going to have these requirements just click on and make the changes? I hope so, I mean it , I really do. I hope that next year we see things look 100% better. (and I don't mean W & L's) I hope to see us play better fundamentally and improve every day. If that happens the wins will take care of themselves.

[Youngsta71701]

The SEC is down this year. It's Alabama and a lot of pretty average teams. I don't believe the conference is remarkably better than when Petrino was coaching.

The recruiting is better if nothing else.

[soooieman]

For those wanting a change.. name one coach that has a better resume than CBB that would come to Arkansas. Be realistic, I'll wait.

[hogsanity]

The other issue when going through the SEC era of coaching hires: how many before we allow for trends or patterns? The insistence that UA can hire "The Guy" who turns us into an immediate juggernaut gets more irrational the longer we go without that actually happening.

Thats the one that is really grounded in nothing. 1st, there is no way to know whead of time if any hire is that hire, they just want to keep playing coaching roulette in the hope that some guy is THE GUY who will figure out how to go get sec talent from states other than the one te school is actually in.

Actually, even stranger is tat many of them think that a guy can be hired and he will win titles by recruiting Arkansas harder and signing more in state kids.