Realistic Expectations

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Let me first say that I am ticked off and sick for losing to Missouri and VT. There is absolutely no excuse for losing those games they way we did. One word to describe them. PATHETIC. I'll throw in Auburn too. There is no excuse to ever be embarrassed like that. I think my first realistic expectation as a fan is to not see the complete breakdowns that occurred in those games. I expect the HOGS to compete every time they step on the field and give all they have to give.

However, this season got me thinking about what should be a realistic expectation for the Hogs in terms of wins and losses??? I decided to look at our history for direction.

Overall record of the program:
703-479-40
.595 winning percentage.
It's hard to compare number of wins per season because games per season have varied throughout the years, but for a 12 game season that means our average record would be 7.1 games or a 7-5 record based on the .595 winning percentage.

Record since joining SEC:
167-137-2
.549 winning percentage
6.6 games won based on a 12 game schedule, so we average a 6-6 to 7-5 record since joining the SEC.

Further SEC analysis since it is the most relevant data:

Sample Standard Deviation, s = 2.3755701070129
Variance (Sample Standard), s2  = 5.6433333333333
Population Standard Deviation, σ = 2.3275738441562
Variance (Population Standard), σ2  = 5.4176
Total Numbers, N = 25
Sum: = 167
Mean (Average): = 6.68

Confidence Level:

68.3%, σ = 4.3044298929871 - 9.0555701070129
90%, 1.645σ = 2.7721871739638 - 10.587812826036
95%, 1.960σ = 2.0238825902547 - 11.336117409745
99%, 2.576σ = 0.56053140433474 - 12.799468595665


What does our record since joining the SEC tell us?

We can expect to win anywhere from 4 to 9 games about 68% of time. We also have about a 1% chance of going undefeated in the next 25 years. My math may be a little off here though.

Hatfield had the best winning percent of any coach Hog coach (.760) and that is (pre SEC). In reality it sure looks like we are a 6-8 win team over our history no matter the coach. How much more should we realistically expect? Our overall win percentage ranks us about #32 in Division 1 FBS history.

My initial thoughts are that the overall record this year doesn't bother me nearly as much as the way we lost. Very frustrating.

[Atlhogfan1]

My initial thoughts are that the overall record this year doesn't bother me nearly as much as the way we lost. Very frustrating.

8 wins on avg over a period of time

Ceiling higher when things come together like schedule and rare for us offensive talent plus a competent defense.  Must have a coach who can maximize those seasons.   

[Sed76]

I am fine with 7 or 8 wins a year as long as we are competitive and don't get embarrassed by every decent team we play. Shouldn't take a freaking decade to rebuild.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

8 wins on avg over a period of time

Ceiling higher when things come together like schedule and rare for us offensive talent plus a competent defense.  Must have a coach who can maximize those seasons.   

That's winning 1.5 games per year more than now, but the last few losses sure make it feel like it should be more than that.

[Atlhogfan1]

I am fine with 7 or 8 wins a year as long as we are competitive and don't get embarrassed by every decent team we play. Shouldn't take a freaking decade to rebuild.

Ok.  It has been 4 seasons. 

Here is where I am.  This was never going to be a 4 year build.  Especially not when it was to be done by building strong lines including the oline.  I gave BB the respect as I would have any coach a chance to do this build without attacking him and holding the early struggles against him.  He should get a chance to see this through a little longer based on what he was told when he took the job.  To see if the plan can work and we can build a solid oline with quality depth.  The foundation off the field in terms of academics seems solid. 

I don't believe Bielema to be a coach who can get this program to reach its ceiling when opportunity presents itself.  With any coach, change should be made when this is made obvious.  So the two year quandary we apparently are entering. 

[Bubba's Bruisers]

The reality today is 7.5 average regular season wins is likely our limit. 

We will never get enough talent to average much better.  Or the coach...because of lack of available talent.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

The reality today is 7.5 average regular season wins is likely our limit. 

We will never get enough talent to average much better.  Or the coach...because of lack of available talent.

It's not just the reality of today. It's our entire history according to the numbers.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

It's not just the reality of today. It's our entire history according to the numbers.

Historically, I wouldn't say that was our ceiling.  But yes, it began in the mid to late 70's.

[Atlhogfan1]

It's not just the reality of today. It's our entire history according to the numbers.

Didn't see if you adjusted for 10 game schedules vs the 12-13 game schedules now.  8 wins in the Broyles era was very good. 

[KennyForAD]

Realistic Expectations?  Petrino showed what the Hogs can be with a good coach.  Anyone expecting less than a top 5 ranking playing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl... has unrealistic expectations.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Realistic Expectations?  Petrino showed what the Hogs can be with a good coach.  Anyone expecting less than a top 5 ranking playing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl... has unrealistic expectations.

Lighting in a bottle, BP was.  The job isn't good enough to attract elite coaches.  Maybe an up and comer, but he very likely doesn't stay if he has real success.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Didn't see if you adjusted for 10 game schedules vs the 12-13 game schedules now.  8 wins in the Broyles era was very good. 

I used the winning percentage to address that issue. .595 winning percentage of overall history and applied it to a theoretical 12 game schedule to give a 7.1 average. Broyles had a .708 winning percentage would translate to 8.5 wins on a 12 game schedule. Hatfield was the best at .760

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Realistic Expectations?  Petrino showed what the Hogs can be with a good coach.  Anyone expecting less than a top 5 ranking playing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl... has unrealistic expectations.

He didn't bust the statistics wide open. He was .667 and averaged 8-4 while here. That is well within our expected wins per season based on history. The real question is whether or not he could have sustained winning at the 10 game level before he left. We will never know now

[KennyForAD]

He didn't bust the statistics wide open. He was .667 and averaged 8-4 while here. That is well within our expected wins per season based on history. The real question is whether or not he could have sustained winning at the 10 game level before he left. We will never know now

You don't like that one?  Well, here's a few other "realistic expectations" that I have.  Maybe you'll like these better:   

1.  Never lose to a team like Mizzou
2.  Never set a RECORD for most rushing yards EVER given up in a game
3. NEVER have the worst rushing defense in the entire NCAA
4.  Never give up a 24 point half-time lead.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Lighting in a bottle, BP was.  The job isn't good enough to attract elite coaches.  Maybe an up and comer, but he very likely doesn't stay if he has real success.

Also - his conference record was barely better than Nutt's.

CBP: 17-15 = .531
HDN: 42-38 = .525

[Atlhogfan1]

I used the winning percentage to address that issue. .595 winning percentage of overall history and applied it to a theoretical 12 game schedule to give a 7.1 average. Broyles had a .708 winning percentage would translate to 8.5 wins on a 12 game schedule. Hatfield was the best at .760

Good job.  Nice analysis. 

[Dark Helmet Hog]

You don't like that one?  Well, here's a few other "realistic expectations" that I have.  Maybe you'll like these better:   

1.  Never lose to a team like Mizzou
2.  Never set a RECORD for most rushing yards EVER given up in a game
3. NEVER have the worst rushing defense in the entire NCAA
4.  Never give up a 24 point half-time lead.

Never said I liked or didn't like any of it. It's just the numbers.

I agree. We should not lose games like that. Did you even read my post?

[Atlhogfan1]

Never said I liked or didn't like any of it. It's just the numbers.

I agree. We should not lose games like that. Did you even read my post?

Be happy your thread lasted that long without those kinds of posts. 

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Also - his conference record was barely better than Nutt's.

CBP: 17-15 = .531
HDN: 42-38 = .525

Yes, but the samples are very different.  Not to mention the SECW.  Nutt reigned when the East was great and the West not so much.  And BP didn't have much to work with upon his arrival.  Nutt had plenty.

Nutt shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with Petrino..

[Atlhogfan1]

Petrino won the LSU game in 2010 where Nutt couldn't in 2006.

Petrino and his team in 2011 managed to escape the poor losses like OM, Vandy, A&M when the team was ill prepared and played poorly at least in the first half whereas Nutt would have lost those.  He maxed the win total which is what a coach has to do. 

Both coaches enjoyed some extremely rare unique offensive talents for our program: MJ, DMac, Mallett + the wr's. 

[KennyForAD]

Never said I liked or didn't like any of it. It's just the numbers.

I agree. We should not lose games like that. Did you even read my post?

Haha!  No.  Did I miss anything worthwhile?   Its this simple:   To anyone saying the Hogs can't have a top team:  Nonsense.  We did just a few years ago.
 

[KennyForAD]

Be happy your thread lasted that long without those kinds of posts.

"That kind of post?"   What kind is that, one responding in a thread entitled 'Realistic Expectations' with... realistic expectations?

Do you have a problem with someone having the expectation of not having the worst defense in the entire NCAA?

Do you have a problem with someone expecting to beat a team like Mizzou?

Do you have a problem with someone expecting to be able to hang on to a 24 point lead?

Or do you just have a problem with someone who points out REALITY, instead on buying into some ridiculous statistical justification?

[Oklahawg]

Haha!  No.  Did I miss anything worthwhile?   Its this simple:   To anyone saying the Hogs can't have a top team:  Nonsense.  We did just a few years ago.
 

What an asshat!

The OP provided a rarity - a well-conceived, well-written post using actual data (and even accounted for potential bias, so it shines even more).  To use the thread as an opportunity to bitch is unacceptable.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Yes, but the samples are very different.  Not to mention the SECW.  Nutt reigned when the East was great and the West not so much.  And BP didn't have much to work with upon his arrival.  Nutt had plenty.

Nutt shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with Petrino..

Hard to disagree with any of that, but at the end of the day the numbers still weren't that different for conference wins. I wish we could have seen what Petrino could have done instead of JLS in 2012. Also, what would he have done with the recruiting we had at the time?

[KennyForAD]

What an asshat!

The OP provided a rarity - a well-conceived, well-written post using actual data (and even accounted for potential bias, so it shines even more).  To use the thread as an opportunity to bitch is unacceptable.

You see this kind of thing all over the board: 'We average X no. of wins per year for the last 120 years, so we shouldn't expect better.'   You say there's something worthwhile in this one, I'll go read it...

[Oklahawg]

Hard to disagree with any of that, but at the end of the day the numbers still weren't that different for conference wins. I wish we could have seen what Petrino could have done instead of JLS in 2012. Also, what would he have done with the recruiting we had at the time?

Ah, the million dollar question (or whatever an irresponsible ride on a Harley costs these days). Recruiting had slipped already but who knows if Bobby could have turned that around. If Bobby would have had a 6-7 win season instead of JLS' implosion we would not be interpreting Bobby as much as a savior as an opportunist. Those things cannot be dissected as easily as your OP, but Biggus has noted the retention/whiff rates for recruiting classes and CBB is clearly doing better than Nutt or Petrino.

[Oklahawg]

You see this kind of thing all over the board: 'We average X no. of wins per year for the last 120 years, so we shouldn't expect better.'   You say there's something worthwhile in this one, I'll go read it...

Or go read somewhere else. I'd be happy to escort you to the door and make sure management refunds your subscription fee.

[Atlhogfan1]

Hard to disagree with any of that, but at the end of the day the numbers still weren't that different for conference wins. I wish we could have seen what Petrino could have done instead of JLS in 2012. Also, what would he have done with the recruiting we had at the time?

Absolutely.  Without the definitive answer, that anchor will hang over our program for a long time.  On record as believing we lost way too much from the 2011 defense to have done much more than a minor bowl in 2012.  But would have been better to have seen it.  As it is, we have fans who believe 10 or 11 wins was going to be the floor. 

[hogsanity]

Historically, I wouldn't say that was our ceiling.  But yes, it began in the mid to late 70's.

when college football fully integrated was when the Hogs slide into a 7-8 win per year team really started.

[KennyForAD]

Let me first say that I am ticked off and sick for losing to Missouri and VT. There is absolutely no excuse for losing those games they way we did. One word to describe them. PATHETIC. I'll throw in Auburn too. There is no excuse to ever be embarrassed like that. I think my first realistic expectation as a fan is to not see the complete breakdowns that occurred in those games. I expect the HOGS to compete every time they step on the field and give all they have to give.

However, this season got me thinking about what should be a realistic expectation for the Hogs in terms of wins and losses??? I decided to look at our history for direction.

Overall record of the program:
703-479-40
.595 winning percentage.
It's hard to compare number of wins per season because games per season have varied throughout the years, but for a 12 game season that means our average record would be 7.1 games or a 7-5 record based on the .595 winning percentage.

Record since joining SEC:
167-137-2
.549 winning percentage
6.6 games won based on a 12 game schedule, so we average a 6-6 to 7-5 record since joining the SEC.

Further SEC analysis since it is the most relevant data:

Sample Standard Deviation, s = 2.3755701070129
Variance (Sample Standard), s2  = 5.6433333333333
Population Standard Deviation, σ = 2.3275738441562
Variance (Population Standard), σ2  = 5.4176
Total Numbers, N = 25
Sum: = 167
Mean (Average): = 6.68

Confidence Level:

68.3%, σ = 4.3044298929871 - 9.0555701070129
90%, 1.645σ = 2.7721871739638 - 10.587812826036
95%, 1.960σ = 2.0238825902547 - 11.336117409745
99%, 2.576σ = 0.56053140433474 - 12.799468595665


What does our record since joining the SEC tell us?

We can expect to win anywhere from 4 to 9 games about 68% of time. We also have about a 1% chance of going undefeated in the next 25 years. My math may be a little off here though.

Hatfield had the best winning percent of any coach Hog coach (.760) and that is (pre SEC). In reality it sure looks like we are a 6-8 win team over our history no matter the coach. How much more should we realistically expect? Our overall win percentage ranks us about #32 in Division 1 FBS history.

My initial thoughts are that the overall record this year doesn't bother me nearly as much as the way we lost. Very frustrating.

Nothing.   What was Louisville like before Petrino?  Miami before Jimmy Johnson?
Baylor before Briles?  TCU before Patterson.   Before Saban, Houston Nutt gave Bama their worst loss in 50 years.  Football is a GAME, not some sort of geological survey.

Arkansas has everything needed to have a top football program, except the right head coach.   

[hogsanity]

"That kind of post?"   What kind is that, one responding in a thread entitled 'Realistic Expectations' with... realistic expectations?

Do you have a problem with someone having the expectation of not having the worst defense in the entire NCAA?

Do you have a problem with someone expecting to beat a team like Mizzou?

Do you have a problem with someone expecting to be able to hang on to a 24 point lead?

Or do you just have a problem with someone who points out REALITY, instead on buying into some ridiculous statistical justification?

The OP pointed out REALITY. Not just reality for the Hogs but really for most of college football. Most programs are 7-8 win a year programs, on average.

[Oklahawg]

when college football fully integrated was when the Hogs slide into a 7-8 win per year team really started.

Agreed.

[Tusks]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at some of you.

Why don't the Hogs move to the AAC, lower ticket prices, sell beer TO EVERYONE, and just throw a party on Saturday afternoons?

[Bubba's Bruisers]

when college football fully integrated was when the Hogs slide into a 7-8 win per year team really started.

Which was my passive aggressive point.  JFB bailed, IMO, because he knew what was coming.  Legacy intact.

[Oklahawg]

The OP pointed out REALITY. Not just reality for the Hogs but really for most of college football. Most programs are 7-8 win a year programs, on average.

I would presume the OP could be expanded to many teams, and it would produce a bell curve. On the extremes would be the perennial elite and the perennial bottom-feeders. Not many of them but they are there, with the rest skewed in greater numbers in the middle.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Ah, the million dollar question (or whatever an irresponsible ride on a Harley costs these days). Recruiting had slipped already but who knows if Bobby could have turned that around. If Bobby would have had a 6-7 win season instead of JLS' implosion we would not be interpreting Bobby as much as a savior as an opportunist. Those things cannot be dissected as easily as your OP, but Biggus has noted the retention/whiff rates for recruiting classes and CBB is clearly doing better than Nutt or Petrino.

There are no easy answers there, but the whole situation is contributing to the frustration being experienced now. Losing big leads and completely falling apart then makes an average 7-6 record feel like a 3-9 record.

[Atlhogfan1]

Nothing.   What was Louisville like before Petrino?  Miami before Jimmy Johnson?
Baylor before Briles?  TCU before Patterson.   Before Saban, Houston Nutt gave Bama their worst loss in 50 years.  Football is a GAME, not some sort of geological survey.

Arkansas has everything needed to have a top football program, except the right head coach.

Louisville was an 8-4 program with an 11 win season under John L

Miami had just won a NC under Schnellenberger

Dennis Franchione had gone 10-1 at TCU before leaving

[KennyForAD]

The OP pointed out REALITY. Not just reality for the Hogs but really for most of college football. Most programs are 7-8 win a year programs, on average.

And I would have thought the average program won half its games!  The majority win 7 or 8 games a year?  Now THAT is an interesting reality.

[KennyForAD]

Louisville was an 8-4 program with an 11 win season under John L

Miami had just won a NC under Schnellenberger

Dennis Franchione had gone 10-1 at TCU before leaving

Did the point REALLY go right over your head?

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Ah, the million dollar question (or whatever an irresponsible ride on a Harley costs these days). Recruiting had slipped already but who knows if Bobby could have turned that around. If Bobby would have had a 6-7 win season instead of JLS' implosion we would not be interpreting Bobby as much as a savior as an opportunist. Those things cannot be dissected as easily as your OP, but Biggus has noted the retention/whiff rates for recruiting classes and CBB is clearly doing better than Nutt or Petrino.

Yes, our talent really isn't any better under BB.  He's just keeping more of it in the program.  Certainly a step in the right direction.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

I would presume the OP could be expanded to many teams, and it would produce a bell curve. On the extremes would be the perennial elite and the perennial bottom-feeders. Not many of them but they are there, with the rest skewed in greater numbers in the middle.

The best teams over time would likely fall inside 2 standard deviations on the winning side of the mean. Without doing the math, I also suspect that would only be about a 1.5 game difference.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

And I would have thought the average program won half its games!  The majority win 7 or 8 games a year?  Now THAT is an interesting reality.

Depends on how you want to do your test sample. Do you want to include just FBS teams or ALL teams. Did they just play teams inside the sample group? Lots of variables there.

[KennyForAD]

Depends on how you want to do your test sample. Do you want to include just FBS teams or ALL teams. Did they just play teams inside the sample group? Lots of variables there.

I'm still confused.  Should we justify this season by saying, "We almost won 8," or by saying, "We won more than 6?" 

[Deep Shoat]

I'm still confused.  Should we justify this season by saying, "We almost won 8," or by saying, "We won more than 6?"

it doesn't need justification.  It falls perfectly within our expected outcomes, for anyone with half a brain.  Should we WANT more?  Yes.  We wouldn't be fans if we didn't.  EXPECTING more is why so many people are so angry. 

For all the "you are who your record says you are" people, shouldn't that apply to the life of a program even more than it applies to a coach you want to fire?

[KennyForAD]

it doesn't need justification.  It falls perfectly within our expected outcomes, for anyone with half a brain.  Should we WANT more?  Yes.  We wouldn't be fans if we didn't.  EXPECTING more is why so many people are so angry. 

For all the "you are who your record says you are" people, shouldn't that apply to the life of a program even more than it applies to a coach you want to fire?

For every program, there have been periods of being below average for that program, periods of being average, and periods of being above average.  Your argument is that we should accept being average.    I think this is an argument that is unique to Arkansas.  Broyles came up with it to justify Nutt's failures and to add to his own glory, and it has somehow stuck.  Where else is this argument made? 

Personally, I don't expect much more than being well-coached and competitive.  This season was very alarming in that it showed clear signs of being neither.  I see the argument of, "You just don't accept that we are what we always have been" as an absurd justification.  We have NOT always been a mere average of our total seasons.  There have been many eras in which we were much more.  Your argument is just a justification for poor coaching.

[Youngsta71701]

8 wins a year are the expectations. 10 wins a year are the hope.

[KennyForAD]

Does anyone think that Texas fans ever argue that they should accept coaching that produces their AVERAGE lifetime wins?  Alabama?  Tennessee?  Georgia?  TCU?   Anyone?  SMU is the only other school I can think of where that argument might work - due to their unique experience with the death penalty - but does even SMU think this way?  I doubt it. 

Who cares if we are the best we CAN be?  We aren't as good as we've been for HALF of our history, but that's ok, because we aren't worse than the other half of our history.

Nonsense.  This is propaganda and justification.

[soooieman]

Realistic Expectations?  Petrino showed what the Hogs can be with a good coach.  Anyone expecting less than a top 5 ranking playing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl... has unrealistic expectations.

The west is MUCH different now than when Petrino was here. Bielema would have gone 21-5 also, or maybe better over that span with the weak western division. Both Mississippi schools were dumpster fires, A&M had Sherman coaching with far less talent, Auburn was recovering after Cam left and was terrible. Bobby didn't beat anybody but LSU while he was here. Also, in Petrino's entire career he has never beaten a top 10 team on the road. Ever. The success during his tenure at UA was more due to a down SEC rather than a "great coach" as you claim. Look at the bowl game Louisville had vs LSU. He had the heisman trophy winner and couldn't put the ball in the end zone. Bobby OR any other coach over the past 2 seasons would not have done any better.

[HotlantaHog]

I don't think it is the record this year or for the past few years that has most fans in an uproar. 7-6 isn't great but is not that far from the rest of the SEC, except for Alabama.

I think what people are upset about is the cluelessness of the coaching staff and evident lack of motivation by the players. That Arkansas can lose to an 8-4 Auburn team by 52-3, that it can blow a big halftime lead against the worst team in the SEC, that it can blow a 24-point lead in a bowl game ... the original poster is the math genius not me, but I am guessing those are 1% events... certainly the odds they occur in one season are less than 1%.

Has Bielema apologized, explained how they occurred, or said what he would do to make sure they would not happen again? Ohio State made the national championship playoffs and got blown out, and you had Urban Meyer saying it was unacceptable and it would never happen again. Maybe he will be right or maybe it will be bluster. But he seems to be deeply shocked and disappointed by his team's performance, again a team that finished No. 3 in the nation.

Where is there any sign that Bielema gets how horrible his team's performance has been? Again it is not about 7-6. It is about the utter cluelessness and evident lack of motivation of the team in three key losses, two ending the season.

[HotlantaHog]

The west is MUCH different now than when Petrino was here. Bielema would have gone 21-5 also, or maybe better over that span with the weak western division. Both Mississippi schools were dumpster fires, A&M had Sherman coaching with far less talent, Auburn was recovering after Cam left and was terrible. Bobby didn't beat anybody but LSU while he was here. Also, in Petrino's entire career he has never beaten a top 10 team on the road. Ever. The success during his tenure at UA was more due to a down SEC rather than a "great coach" as you claim. Look at the bowl game Louisville had vs LSU. He had the heisman trophy winner and couldn't put the ball in the end zone. Bobby OR any other coach over the past 2 seasons would not have done any better.

The SEC is down this year. It's Alabama and a lot of pretty average teams. I don't believe the conference is remarkably better than when Petrino was coaching.