Arkansas: Recruiting, Attrition and Coaching

[Pork Twain]

I did this once, long ago and thought I would look it over again.  Pre-SEC would be the last time Arkansas dominated the landscape.  This is not about "poor wittle ole Arkysaw", it is about the reality of who we are and the uphill battle any coach we hire has to look forward to.  This will never be a highly sought after job for no other reason than the sparse recruiting base the coach must deal with, and the unrealistic expectations of the fan-base.  Who knows what BP might have been able to do if not for the wreck.  He is a great offensive mind, but I believe the misses in his previous classes would have slowed him down.

Like it or not stars do matter...they are not the end all, be all but they are a tool that can be utilized through historical analysis to show some definite trends.  Of course having a low miss-rate, a quality developmental program and a good staff also play a huge part in the end result.  The low miss-rate is a much bigger deal for a team like Arkansas than one that lands at the top of the recruiting rankings year in and year out.

I will go through several years (data permitting) here to look at how our team stacks up.  I will also focus on where we have come up short the last few years and been forced to play players far too early, removing the option for the valuable redshirt year for development.  Feel free to let me know if I did not get one right and I will get it fixed (some of the data I could find was conflicting).

[Pork Twain]

How did we fare vs our SEC peers, you ask?
Here are the last two HDN years (still putting together the years prior)
The good ole days, when Bama sucked bad enough that we out recruited them

[Pork Twain]

Here are the Bobby Petrino years 2008-2011

[Pork Twain]

Here is the John L Smith year 2012

[Pork Twain]

Here are the Bret Bielema years 2013-Present

[Pork Twain]

Well where is all of this talent coming from?
From SB Nation

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2015/4/15/8143431/states-most-players-recruits

[Pork Twain]

But...but...how does that compare to other SEC schools?  Thank god someone else already did that work, because I did not want to.  Completely stole this from LWSVOL on the VolNation site.  While looking this over, try to not ignore that it is much easier for the top teams to overcome a bad class or two that it is for a team like Arkansas that must have a low miss-rate in order to develop those players.

Following information covers 2002-2016 signing classes for SEC schools. I found a number of players that failed to complete their eligibility at that school. Failures were counted for: Non-qualifiers, players getting dismissed, failing school, transfers, just quit playing football or unknown reasons. If players left school early for NFL, I do not count them as failing to complete eligibility. Last updated 11/10/2016

Added Rivals class ranking and number of NFL draftees for each class.

SEC Teams

Alabama

2016 Signed 24 - 02 (08%) Rank # 01
2015 Signed 24 - 06 (25%) Rank # 02
2014 Signed 26 - 01 (04%) Rank # 01
2013 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 01
2012 Signed 26 - 07 (27%) Rank # 01 NFL 3
2011 Signed 22 - 10 (45%) Rank # 01 NFL 7
2010 Signed 26 - 10 (39%) Rank # 05 NFL 6
2009 Signed 28 - 12 (43%) Rank # 01 NFL 11
2008 Signed 32 - 16 (50%) Rank # 01 NFL 10
2007 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 10 NFL 3
2006 Signed 23 - 12 (52%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2005 Signed 34 - 19 (56%) Rank # 18 NFL 3
2004 Signed 27 - 12 (44%) Rank # 15 NFL 1
2003 Signed 19 - 09 (47%) Rank # 49 NFL 1
2002 Signed 18 - 06 (33%) Rank # 30 NFL 4

Last 6 Years Signed 147 - 37 (25%)

Totals Signed 379 – 144 (38%)

Arkansas

2016 Signed 21 - 00 (00%) Rank # 33
2015 Signed 23 - 02 (09%) Rank # 25
2014 Signed 24 - 05 (21%) Rank # 29
2013 Signed 23 - 07 (30%) Rank # 27 NFL 1
2012 Signed 24 - 14 (58%) Rank # 34 NFL 1
2011 Signed 30 - 16 (53%) Rank # 24 NFL 3
Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 49 NFL 2
2009 Signed 31 - 13 (42%) Rank # 16 NFL 3
2008 Signed 26 - 11 (42%) Rank # 36 NFL 5
2007 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 31 NFL 2
2006 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 26 NFL 2
2005 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 24 NFL 2
2004 Signed 32 - 17 (53%) Rank # 22 NFL 5
2003 Signed 25 - 12 (48%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2002 Signed 21 - 06 (29%) Rank # 26 NFL 3

Last 6 Years Signed 145 - 44 (30%)

Totals Signed 382 – 150 (39%)

Auburn

2016 Signed 21 - 02 (10%) Rank # 09
2015 Signed 27 - 03 (12%) Rank # 06
2014 Signed 23 - 08 (35%) Rank # 09
2013 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 08 NFL 1
2012 Signed 21 - 11 (52%) Rank # 10
2011 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 07 NFL 6
2010 Signed 32 - 15 (47%) Rank # 04 NFL 3
2009 Signed 28 - 13 (46%) Rank # 19 NFL 2
2008 Signed 29 - 23 (79%) Rank # 20 NFL 1
2007 Signed 30 - 19 (63%) Rank # 07 NFL 2
2006 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 10 NFL 2
2005 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 13 NFL 4
2004 Signed 29 - 16 (55%) Rank # 21 NFL 3
2003 Signed 27 - 11 (41%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2002 Signed 29 - 15 (52%) Rank # 06 NFL 6

Last 6 Years Signed 139 - 40 (29%)

Totals Signed 390 – 174 (45%)

Florida

2016 Signed 25 - 00 (00%) Rank # 14
2015 Signed 21 - 02 (10%) Rank # 23
2014 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 08
2013 Signed 29 - 08 (28%) Rank # 04 NFL 1
2012 Signed 23 - 12 (52%) Rank # 03 NFL 3
2011 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 12
2010 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 02 NFL 10
2009 Signed 17 - 07 (41%) Rank # 11 NFL 7
2008 Signed 22 - 09 (41%) Rank # 03 NFL 2
2007 Signed 27 - 09 (33%) Rank # 01 NFL 10
2006 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 02 NFL 7
2005 Signed 18 - 11 (61%) Rank # 15 NFL 2
2004 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 07 NFL 4
2003 Signed 26 - 07 (27%) Rank # 02 NFL 8
2002 Signed 22 - 08 (36%) Rank # 20 NFL 5

Last 6 Years Signed 141 - 42 (30%)

Totals Signed 351 – 125 (36%)

Georgia

2016 Signed 20 - 01 (05%) Rank # 10
2015 Signed 29 - 04 (14%) Rank # 07
2014 Signed 21 - 07 (33%) Rank # 07
2013 Signed 33 - 15 (45%) Rank # 12
2012 Signed 19 - 06 (32%) Rank # 12 NFL 1
2011 Signed 26 - 08 (31%) Rank # 05 NFL 5
2010 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 15 NFL 1
2009 Signed 20 - 07 (35%) Rank # 06 NFL 5
2008 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 07 NFL 10
2007 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 09 NFL 6
2006 Signed 28 - 08 (29%) Rank # 04 NFL 10
2005 Signed 19 - 08 (42%) Rank # 10 NFL 3
2004 Signed 20 - 07 (35%) Rank # 06 NFL 3
2003 Signed 25 - 09 (36%) Rank # 06 NFL 5
2002 Signed 31 - 13 (42%) Rank # 03 NFL 7

Last 6 Years Signed 148 - 41 (28%)

Totals Signed 357 – 123 (34%)

Kentucky

2016 Signed 25 - 00 (00%) Rank # 29
2015 Signed 21 - 04 (19%) Rank # 34
2014 Signed 28 - 09 (32%) Rank # 17
2013 Signed 23 - 05 (22%) Rank # 29 NFL 1
2012 Signed 26 - 18 (69%) Rank # 62
2011 Signed 24 - 13 (54%) Rank # 61 NFL 1
2010 Signed 26 - 14 (54%) Rank # 50 NFL 1
2009 Signed 29 - 14 (48%) Rank # 41 NFL 1
2008 Signed 20 - 06 (30%) Rank # 57 NFL 3
2007 Signed 29 - 13 (45%) Rank # 54
2006 Signed 30 - 17 (57%) Rank # 36 NFL 2
2005 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 67 NFL 2
2004 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 45 NFL 1
2003 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 63 NFL 3
2002 Signed 15 - 08 (53%) Rank # 94

Last 6 Years Signed 147 - 49 (33%)

Totals Signed 374 – 158 (42%)

LSU

2016 Signed 23 - 00 (00%) Rank # 06
2015 Signed 25 - 04 (16%) Rank # 08
2014 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 02
2013 Signed 26 - 08 (31%) Rank # 06
2012 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 18 NFL 2
2011 Signed 24 - 10 (42%) Rank # 06 NFL 7
2010 Signed 28 - 13 (46%) Rank # 06 NFL 7
2009 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 02 NFL 9
2008 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 11 NFL 3
2007 Signed 26 - 12 (46%) Rank # 04 NFL 6
2006 Signed 26 - 13 (50%) Rank # 07 NFL 5
2005 Signed 14 - 05 (36%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2004 Signed 26 - 06 (23%) Rank # 02 NFL 11
2003 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 01 NFL 6
2002 Signed 26 - 13 (50%) Rank # 15 NFL 2

Last 6 Years Signed 145 - 37 (26%)

Totals Signed 369 – 131 (36%)

Ole Miss

2016 Signed 24 - 02 (08%) Rank # 07
2015 Signed 22 - 02 (09%) Rank # 21
2014 Signed 25 - 05 (20%) Rank # 19
2013 Signed 27 - 12 (41%) Rank # 07
2012 Signed 18 - 04 (22%) Rank # 40
2011 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 19 NFL 2
2010 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 18
2009 Signed 37 - 24 (65%) Rank # 18 NFL 1
2008 Signed 30 - 14 (47%) Rank # 29
2007 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 27
2006 Signed 30 - 09 (30%) Rank # 16 NFL 5
2005 Signed 28 - 15 (57%) Rank # 30 NFL 4
2004 Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 30 NFL 1
2003 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 38 NFL 2
2002 Signed 18 - 10 (56%) Rank # 33

Last 6 Years Signed 143 - 35 (24%)

Totals Signed 379 – 153 (40%)

Mississippi St

2016 Signed 18 - 01 (06%) Rank # 34
2015 Signed 28 - 02 (07%) Rank # 16
2014 Signed 23 - 03 (13%) Rank # 39
2013 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 26
2012 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 30
2011 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 44 NFL 4
2010 Signed 26 - 10 (38%) Rank # 38 NFL 3
2009 Signed 27 - 08 (30%) Rank # 25 NFL 7
2008 Signed 27 - 16 (59%) Rank # 44 NFL 1
2007 Signed 33 - 16 (48%) Rank # 39 NFL 2
2006 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 44 NFL 1
2005 Signed 28 - 15 (54%) Rank # 33 NFL 1
2004 Signed 23 - 17 (74%) Rank # 62
2003 Signed 27 - 13 (46%) Rank # 09
2002 Signed 31 - 19 (61%) Rank # 17 NFL 1

Last 6 Years Signed 141 - 36 (26%)

Totals Signed 387 – 161 (42%)

Missouri

2016 Signed 20 - 02 (10%) Rank # 52
2015 Signed 23 - 03 (13%) Rank # 29
2014 Signed 28 - 08 (29%) Rank # 34
2013 Signed 21 - 10 (48%) Rank # 41
2012 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 31 NFL 2
2011 Signed 17 - 06 (35%) Rank # 48 NFL 2
2010 Signed 23 - 07 (30%) Rank # 21 NFL 5
2009 Signed 25 - 10 (40%) Rank # 40 NFL 3
2008 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 25 NFL 4
2007 Signed 27 - 12 (44%) Rank # 33 NFL 1
2006 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 47 NFL 2
2005 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 39 NFL 2
2004 Signed 25 - 14 (56%) Rank # 29 NFL 3
2003 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 28 NFL 1
2002 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 29 NFL 1

Last 6 Years Signed 127 - 38 (30%)

Totals Signed 344 – 129 (38%)

South Carolina

2016 Signed 26 - 03 (12%) Rank # 26
2015 Signed 29 - 06 (21%) Rank # 19
2014 Signed 21 - 08 (38%) Rank # 16
2013 Signed 21 - 11 (52%) Rank # 16
2012 Signed 25 - 15 (60%) Rank # 19 NFL 1
2011 Signed 32 - 14 (44%) Rank # 18 NFL 2
2010 Signed 23 - 06 (26%) Rank # 24 NFL 4
2009 Signed 29 - 15 (52%) Rank # 12 NFL 6
2008 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2007 Signed 31 - 15 (48%) Rank # 06 NFL 6
2006 Signed 24 - 12 (50%) Rank # 24 NFL 4
2005 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 23 NFL 4
2004 Signed 29 - 18 (62%) Rank # 35 NFL 5
2003 Signed 28 - 10 (36%) Rank # 08 NFL 2
2002 Signed 27 - 13 (48%) Rank # 11 NFL 3

Last 6 Years Signed 154 - 57 (37%)

Totals Signed 396 – 171 (43%)

Tennessee

2016 Signed 21 - 01 (05%) Rank # 15
2015 Signed 30 - 07 (35%) Rank # 05
2014 Signed 32 - 12 (38%) Rank # 05
2013 Signed 23 - 10 (43%) Rank # 21
2012 Signed 22 - 15 (68%) Rank # 17 NFL 2
2011 Signed 28 - 15 (54%) Rank # 13
2010 Signed 28 - 11 (39%) Rank # 10 NFL 4
2009 Signed 24 - 19 (79%) Rank # 10 NFL 2
2008 Signed 18 - 06 (33%) Rank # 35 NFL 2
2007 Signed 32 - 19 (59%) Rank # 03 NFL 3
2006 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 23 NFL 3
2005 Signed 27 - 11 (41%) Rank # 04 NFL 4
2004 Signed 24 - 07 (29%) Rank # 11 NFL 4
2003 Signed 22 - 08 (36%) Rank # 18 NFL 4
2002 Signed 25 - 09 (36%) Rank # 02 NFL 7

Last 6 Years Signed 156 - 60 (38%)

Totals Signed 378 – 162 (43%)

Texas A&M

2016 Signed 21 - 01 (05%) Rank # 16
2015 Signed 25 - 03 (12%) Rank # 10
2014 Signed 21 - 05 (24%) Rank # 06
2013 Signed 32 - 20 (63%) Rank # 11
2012 Signed 19 - 09 (47%) Rank # 15
2011 Signed 22 - 09 (41%) Rank # 27 NFL 2
2010 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 17 NFL 5
2009 Signed 28 - 12 (43%) Rank # 22 NFL 3
2008 Signed 25 - 16 (64%) Rank # 16 NFL 3
2007 Signed 19 - 12 (63%) Rank # 43 NFL 2
2006 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 27 NFL 2
2005 Signed 26 - 10 (38%) Rank # 08 NFL 1
2004 Signed 29 - 16 (55%) Rank # 13 NFL 1
2003 Signed 24 - 11 (46%) Rank # 10 NFL 4
2002 Signed 23 - 11 (48%) Rank # 23 NFL 2

Last 6 Years Signed 140 - 47 (34%)

Totals Signed 361 – 152 (42%)

Vanderbilt

2016 Signed 20 - 00 (00%) Rank # 60
2015 Signed 18 - 00 (00%) Rank # 46
2014 Signed 22 - 04 (18%) Rank # 48
2013 Signed 26 - 09 (35%) Rank # 19
2012 Signed 22 - 12 (55%) Rank # 29
2011 Signed 21 - 12 (57%) Rank # 70
2010 Signed 24 - 09 (38%) Rank # 61 NFL 2
2009 Signed 18 - 10 (56%) Rank # 71 NFL 2
2008 Signed 21 - 12 (57%) Rank # 90 NFL 2
2007 Signed 14 - 05 (36%) Rank # 67 NFL 1
2006 Signed 25 - 11 (44%) Rank # 60 NFL 2
2005 Signed 25 - 08 (32%) Rank # 87 NFL 2
2004 Signed 20 - 10 (50%) Rank # 66
2003 Signed 22 - 11 (50%) Rank # 78 NFL 2
2002 Signed 22 - 10 (45%) Rank # 76

Last 6 Years Signed 129 - 37 (29%)

Totals Signed 320 – 123 (38%)

SEC Totals Signed 5,167 – 2,056 (40%)

[hogsanity]

Here is the John L Smith year 2012

you do know that Petrino signed the 2012 class, that class was signed in Feb 2012 and he was not fired until April. JLS never had a recruiting class.

[Pork Twain]

you do know that Petrino signed the 2012 class, that class was signed in Feb 2012 and he was not fired until April. JLS never had a recruiting class.

Wow, you barely had time to open the thread, much less give it a good analysis.   

I did know that but I gave him credit for keeping it together.  Often after a coach is fired, players will jump ship.  That class had to go to someone so I gave it to JLS for that reason.  So while he did not initially sign the class in Feb, he was able to keep it together for the most part after April. 

[RazorPiggie]

So from 08 to 12 we signed 139 players and had 66 leave. Thats 47% that didn't make it 4+ years.

[RebelliousHog]

The most telling to me was the Smith year. They only recruited 2 (TWO!!!!!)  O linemen. And they didn't stay or contribute.  These would be 5th year senior linemen now.

[RebelliousHog]

Great analysis.

[DeltaBoy]

So we been more miss than hit the past 20 years in recruiting with a few HR years.
Thanks for all the Data.

[RazorPiggie]

Also Anthony Brown is gone as is Josh Allen. Reeve Koehler has graduated. Myke Tavarres transferred.

[311Hog]

man so much attrition.  Btw i don't care the "level" of the Bowl i love Beilema's bowl record and hopefully we can push that to 3-0 this year.  Bowls are important to me, seeing the Hogs lose during the holidays as a kid/young adult always pist me off so much.  Is one of the problems i had with the Wishbone days.  We would go 10-1 and then get owned in the bowl.

I would rather get blown out 52-7 in a game during the year and then win the bowl then visa versa.

[thefisher]

I did this once, long ago and thought I would look it over again.

Really nice informative work up. Thank you! +1

[hogsanity]

The 11 & 12 classes pretty much blow up the " win and they will come " line of thought. 21-5, bcs bowl appearance and a dominating cotton bowl win, resulted in classes ranked 21st and 28th which were 9th and 10th in the sec.

[311Hog]

The 11 & 12 classes pretty much blow up the " win and they will come " line of thought. 21-5, bcs bowl appearance and a dominating cotton bowl win, resulted in classes ranked 21st and 28th which were 9th and 10th in the sec.

yeah i have long since abandoned the idea that Arkansas will ever be that "win signing day" school like much of our competition.  We are a blue collar school where we have to find players and develop them, along with hoping for a "good" crop of AR HS kids to pair them with.  Maybe get "a" star or two from somewhere else (Florida/Texas/California) like an Alex Collins or Devwah.  Our demographics just do not lend itself to the "top 10" recruiting class.  It would take a metric ton of winning to change that.  We are talking 5 straight 10 + win seasons maybe even a Natty.

[RazorPiggie]

The 11 & 12 classes pretty much blow up the " win and they will come " line of thought. 21-5, bcs bowl appearance and a dominating cotton bowl win, resulted in classes ranked 21st and 28th which were 9th and 10th in the sec.

When the SEC was just 12 teams.

[The_Iceman]

The 11 & 12 classes pretty much blow up the " win and they will come " line of thought. 21-5, bcs bowl appearance and a dominating cotton bowl win, resulted in classes ranked 21st and 28th which were 9th and 10th in the sec.

The cupboard was really bare when Bielema took over. He is doing a good job, except he underachieving last year. That should have been at least a 9 win regular season team (Toledo and MissState), maybe more (a&m).

[Pork Twain]

Also Anthony Brown is gone as is Josh Allen. Reeve Koehler has graduated. Myke Tavarres transferred.

Thanks, those guys were question marks for me.  Updated my info

[Pork Twain]

So from 08 to 12 we signed 139 players and had 66 leave. Thats 47% that didn't make it 4+ years.

Sadly the impact of those failure is lost on far too many.  When you are a school that must have a low miss-rate in order to adequately develop players, those numbers will set you back years.  That means the 13-15 classes are forced to produce starters, when in reality they should be producing an occasional starter but more importantly feeding our redshirt/developmental program.  That not only affects current quality, but also future depth.  For the top teams in the SEC, it is just "who's next?" for us it's "Oh Shirt!"

[Snizzzo]

Awesome analysis.  Thank you. 

[rzrbk4life]

Thanks for the work pork. Very informative

[Pork Twain]

Working on HDN years but it is more difficult to find info on players leaving the program other than the big name guys.

[Rocky&Boarwinkle]

Good information, but I noticed one thing that made me scratch my head.

Wasn't Korliss Marshall from Arkansas, not Texas?

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

The 11 & 12 classes pretty much blow up the " win and they will come " line of thought. 21-5, bcs bowl appearance and a dominating cotton bowl win, resulted in classes ranked 21st and 28th which were 9th and 10th in the sec.

Totally disagree.
You can't change the earth's orbit by setting off a few sticks of dynamite.

Now, if we could have had 9+ wins 4-6 years in a row and our classes didn't change, you might have something.

Additionally,  BP has been dogged on here for not being much of a recruiter, so there's that too.

[Pork Twain]

Good information, but I noticed one thing that made me scratch my head.

Wasn't Korliss Marshall from Arkansas, not Texas?

Good call and typo on my part.  Can never forget all the hype he got on here before he was offered.

[Pork Twain]

I have all of this in an Excel SS, if anyone wants it PM me with your email.

[Rocky&Boarwinkle]

Good call and typo on my part.  Can never forget all the hype he got on here before he was offered.

No problem.  Messing with that amount of columns and information, it would be easy to do.  But I thought the whole point was to show what was homegrown and what we had to go shopping for out of state, so I thought we would mention it.

Solid effort.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

No problem.  Messing with that amount of columns and information, it would be easy to do.  But I thought the whole point was to show what was homegrown and what we had to go shopping for out of state, so I thought we would mention it.

Solid effort.

Nope.

AWESOME effort and results.

[hogsanity]

Totally disagree.
You can't change the earth's orbit by setting off a few sticks of dynamite.

Now, if we could have had 9+ wins 4-6 years in a row and our classes didn't change, you might have something.

Additionally,  BP has been dogged on here for not being much of a recruiter, so there's that too.

I'd say 11 & 12 prove he flat out sucked at recruiting.

[hogsanity]

This post, kudos to the op for the work, is the type of thing that actually has benefit to the fans. It helps them understand, of they want to, the challenges that many of us talk about, but we don't bring the actual numbers to show it.

[TheGunther]

In the first graph it would be interesting to see each coaches average opponent ranking.  Although Coach Nutt and Coach Petrino appear to have had similar amounts of success, I hypothesize that Coach Petrino's average opponent rank was higher than Coach Nutt's.  And I hypothesize that Coach Beliema's average opponent rank is higher than Coach Petrino's.

[Pork Twain]

No problem.  Messing with that amount of columns and information, it would be easy to do.  But I thought the whole point was to show what was homegrown and what we had to go shopping for out of state, so I thought we would mention it.

Solid effort.

That was not my intent but it has been a topic of discussion, so I thought I would go ahead and add it while I was putting it together.

[Pork Twain]

In the first graph it would be interesting to see each coaches average opponent ranking.  Although Coach Nutt and Coach Petrino appear to have had similar amounts of success, I hypothesize that Coach Petrino's average opponent rank was higher than Coach Nutt's.  And I hypothesize that Coach Beliema's average opponent rank is higher than Coach Petrino's.

I am actually just started putting together data for each year's schedule and will add that once it is complete.  Like how HDN backed into the SEC CG when others were not allowed to be there.

[hawginbigd1]

Sadly the impact of those failure is lost on far too many.  When you are a school that must have a low miss-rate in order to adequately develop players, those numbers will set you back years.  That means the 13-15 classes are forced to produce starters, when in reality they should be producing an occasional starter but more importantly feeding our redshirt/developmental program.  That not only affects current quality, but also future depth.  For the top teams in the SEC, it is just "who's next?" for us it's "Oh Shirt!"

The cupboard was really bare when Bielema took over. He is doing a good job, except he underachieving last year. That should have been at least a 9 win regular season team (Toledo and MissState), maybe more (a&m).

This right here is why all the CBB haters are a bunch of morons, some of the attrition I do blame the staff on, they need to do better reaching some of these young men. However CBB stepped into an arms race with a half empty armory, he is steadily restocking the ammunition, I am 100% behind him, but that doesn't mean I am going to stop calling BS when he does or doesn't do something I see as wrong!

[Youngsta71701]

When the SEC was just 12 teams.

And out of those 21 games won only 3 came against teams with a winning record. I will say this. Beilema has a much deeper challenge than even Petrino had when it comes to strength of schedule.

[OutlawHawg]

Not completely sold on Bret but one thing we haven't had is stability. If you look at those rankings, the last two years were the first back to back Top 25 classes. Granted both were on the tail end at 23 but we've never seen what sustained winning can do to recruiting.

Nutt had good seasons mixed in with losing seasons. Bobby got fired before he had the chance to sustain success.

If we beat Mizzou and win a bowl game we'll finish 9 - 4. I'd like to see what several years of winning 7 - 9 games a year and being in bowls would do to recruiting.

[Youngsta71701]

Our best overall recruiting classes have come in the past two years. That's a step in the right direction if nothing else. Love to see what a little continuity at the Head position will do. DC has to go though. lol

BTW great info Pork Twain.

[code red]

Bottom line....stars matter.  4-5 star kids are usually kids with great athletic talent and commitment.  Looks like CBB has whiffed on plenty as well.

[1highhog]

I did this once, long ago and thought I would look it over again.  Pre-SEC would be the last time Arkansas dominated the landscape.  This is not about “poor wittle ole Arkysaw”, it is about the reality of who we are and the uphill battle any coach we hire has to look forward to.  This will never be a highly sought after job for no other reason than the sparse recruiting base the coach must deal with, and the unrealistic expectations of the fan-base.  Who knows what BP might have been able to do if not for the wreck.  He is a great offensive mind, but I believe the misses in his previous classes would have slowed him down.

Like it or not stars do matter…they are not the end all, be all but they are a tool that can be utilized through historical analysis to show some definite trends.  Of course having a low miss-rate, a quality developmental program and a good staff also play a huge part in the end result.  The low miss-rate is a much bigger deal for a team like Arkansas than one that lands at the top of the recruiting rankings year in and year out.

I will go through several years (data permitting) here to look at how our team stacks up.  I will also focus on where we have come up short the last few years and been forced to play players far too early, removing the option for the valuable redshirt year for development.  Feel free to let me know if I did not get one right and I will get it fixed (some of the data I could find was conflicting).

Yes, BP is a great Offensive mind, but he's also and inept defensive mind or just decides to overlook the defensive side of recruiting as he did here and other places he's been.  Bobby would have the same trouble as any Coach would have taking over the job here at Arkansas.  I hated seeing A/M added to the SEC and I remember so many on this Board all for them being in the SEC and it bewildered me why any one of us would want them in the SEC, it would destroy what advantage we had of being in the SEC when it came to recruiting Texas, recruits wanted to play in the SEC and we offered that to some each year, now A/M get's the pick of the litter along with any of the other close SEC Schools and then of course Bama always had their pick of anyone.  But A/M really hurt our recruiting which any Coach that came here already had it tough.

[Youngsta71701]

If we can recruit these numbers every year we should be fine.
Offense
QB = 1
HB = 2
FB = 1
WR = 3
TE = 1
OT = 2
OG = 2
C = 1

Defense
DE = 2
DT = 2
OLB = 2
MLB = 1
CB = 3
S = 2

Recruiting a balanced class is easier said than done though.

[hawgtime]

Bottom line....stars matter.  4-5 star kids are usually kids with great athletic talent and commitment.  Looks like CBB has whiffed on plenty as well.

I believe we ALL agree.... but how do we get them to ARK?  we need a couple of home run hitting recruiters!  where are they? 

[311Hog]

I believe we ALL agree.... but how do we get them to ARK?  we need a couple of home run hitting recruiters!  where are they? 

This is what is baffling to me sometimes. 
1. 5 star players have never come to Arkansas in any larger numbers than 1 or 2.  And those guys were almost always if not 100% of the time "miracle AR HS kids" that bleed red and loved that helmet.
2. Yes 4 and 5 star players matter, yes Alabama has an entire 2 deep of 4 and 5 star players, there isn't a recruiter walking this earth that can turn Arkansas recruiting classes into Alabama recruiting classes it will NEVER HAPPEN.

Our only hope is through the weight room, coaching staff stability and a long term vision of turning quality 3 and 4 star players into "5 stars by their 3rd year" and hopefully pairing them with the 1 or 2 legit 5 star players AR produces every couple of years or that we manage to snag out of Florida or Texas.

The idea that we can "recruit" 4 and 5 star depth to me is a waste of time and energy.  Of course you go for the best you can, but the over all point is that you have to keep them in the program and they have to improve.

[Pork Twain]

I believe we ALL agree.... but how do we get them to ARK?  we need a couple of home run hitting recruiters!  where are they? 

That has never and will likely never happen.  What we have to do is get guys that are great at evaluating talent that has room to grown and has a very low miss-rate.  Enos here and Bud Foster at VT are excellent examples of how a coach can do that and can utilize their scheme to mask the talent deficiencies the team might have.  I do not think Robb Smith has that.

[hawginbigd1]

This is what is baffling to me sometimes. 
1. 5 star players have never come to Arkansas in any larger numbers than 1 or 2.  And those guys were almost always if not 100% of the time "miracle AR HS kids" that bleed red and loved that helmet.
2. Yes 4 and 5 star players matter, yes Alabama has an entire 2 deep of 4 and 5 star players, there isn't a recruiter walking this earth that can turn Arkansas recruiting classes into Alabama recruiting classes it will NEVER HAPPEN.

Our only hope is through the weight room, coaching staff stability and a long term vision of turning quality 3 and 4 star players into "5 stars by their 3rd year" and hopefully pairing them with the 1 or 2 legit 5 star players AR produces every couple of years or that we manage to snag out of Florida or Texas.

The idea that we can "recruit" 4 and 5 star depth to me is a waste of time and energy.  Of course you go for the best you can, but the over all point is that you have to keep them in the program and they have to improve.

Exactly, the reason we have been struggling with depth and overall talent is the 50% miss/attrition rate from 2011-2013. These are the guys that should be by and large your RS SRs and Jrs right now and they just are not here. Then you add the early entry talents we have lost and one should understand as a whole the program is steaming in the right direction, but when you can't go out and pick off 12-15 4 and 5 star guys every year it is going to take time. The only thing that needs to change IMO is the DC, and keep building the roster as CBB has been doing consistently.

Side note however when you do get the 4 and 5 stars, or the hidden gem 3 stars, get them on the field ASAP is another thing I would change. Agim, Harris, Whaley, and even Hammonds are a step up talent wise from others who have been getting snaps.

[Pork Twain]

Exactly, the reason we have been struggling with depth and overall talent is the 50% miss/attrition rate from 2011-2013. These are the guys that should be by and large your RS SRs and Jrs right now and they just are not here. Then you add the early entry talents we have lost and one should understand as a whole the program is steaming in the right direction, but when you can't go out and pick off 12-15 4 and 5 star guys every year it is going to take time. The only thing that needs to change IMO is the DC, and keep building the roster as CBB has been doing consistently.

Side note however when you do get the 4 and 5 stars, or the hidden gem 3 stars, get them on the field ASAP is another thing I would change. Agim, Harris, Whaley, and even Hammonds are a step up talent wise from others who have been getting snaps.

Once Hammonds begins to take a little better care of the ball, I would love to see more of him.  For now, he scares the crap out of me every time he runs.

[Rocky&Boarwinkle]

Nope.

AWESOME effort and results.

Touche'   

[hogsanity]

It was too bad BB could not have redshirted the entire 2013 class. The season was going to be horrible regardless, but he HAD to play a lot of FR to actually put a team on the field, that is how think they were in spots.