The Stan Heath record of improvement

[Biggus Piggus]

In 2003-04, Heath's Razorbacks won three more games than they won in 2002-03 against a miserably tough schedule.

In 2003-04, the Hogs won five games against teams below 200 in RPI up from two in the previous season.  In 2003-04, Arkansas won eight games against teams below 100 in RPI up from four in the previous season.  Heath's Hogs won two games against top 50 teams compared with three the year before.

In 2004-05, the Hogs won six more games than they won in 2003-04.

In 2004-05, Arkansas won nine games against team below 200 in RPI up from five in the previous season.  In 2004-05, the Razorbacks won 15 games against teams below 100 in RPI up from eight in the previous season.  Heath's Hogs won one game against top 50 teams compared with two the year before, three the season before that.

The wins improved by six, the easy games increased by seven.  Three of those seven were against teams rated below 300 in RPI.

Simply hold the past level of performance, and the Razorbacks get into the NCAAT this season.  Despite a large infusion of talent over two seasons, Heath could not even engineer that much.  Irwin may be right and the talent's not really that good, or I may be right and the preparation is terrible.  Or maybe we are both right.  I know this much, something is wrong.

Oh yeah, for the third consecutive season Arkansas finished below 100 in RPI.  No, Nolan's last team did not do that.  Only his first team did that.  Back when the RPI was secret.  Worst three-year run since Lanny Van Eman.  Worst three-year conference run in eons.  Heath's third team had a worse RPI than his awful first one did.  At least the first one could play defense.

[Biggus Piggus]

Here's another one that cuts to the chase.

Stan Heath's record after Valentine's Day:

2002-03: 2-6
2003-04: 1-6
2004-05: 1-5
In total: 4-17

If those numbers were any good at all, Heath would be sitting pretty.  Instead they are an indictment of his coaching ability.

[Niels Boar]

But, Biggus, we lost three home games by 6 points.  Nevermind that we had to make a comeback in those games to make them close.  It's not like Arkansas has ever in its meager BB history blown out a superior opponent at home.

Good Gawd, do you realize how close we came to only 3 wins after December?  Ole Miss shoots their season average at the line at home,  Bass shoots his season average at the line in BWA, and McFadgon isn't sitting in street clothes at BWA. This team, what's the word I'm looking for...oh yeah..., SUCKS!

[Biggus Piggus]

But, Biggus, we lost three home games by 6 points.  Nevermind that we had to make a comeback in those games to make them close.  It's not like Arkansas has ever in its meager BB history blown out a superior opponent at home.

Good Gawd, do you realize how close we came to only 3 wins after December?  Ole Miss shoots their season average at the line at home,  Bass shoots his season average at the line in BWA, and McFadgon isn't sitting in street clothes at BWA. This team, what's the word I'm looking for...oh yeah..., SUCKS!

To elaborate, Niels:

Tommie Eddie missed one game this season, our SEC opener.  The Rebels shot 9-30 from inside, 3-17 outside, 19-30 at the line.  They did not know he was out till the plane flight.  What a stroke of luck for us.

At Ole Miss, where we won by a point, the Rebels shot 22-31 from inside with Eddie back.  They were 2-16 from outside and 15-28 from the line.  Ole Miss shot 36% from 3-point range this season.  They were just 60% at the line, really bad.  But even 60% would have knocked us off.

McFadgon, who lit us up every time he played us, missed the Fayetteville game.

We beat LSU by three.  Brandon Bass was 8-14 at the line, his average was 77%.  The team was 13-23, their average was 73%.  We made 16-17, our average was 66%.

[Biggus Piggus]

To flesh this out...

Season records

2002-03: 9-19, 4-13 SEC.  3-12 vs. top 50, 2-4 vs. 51-100, 4-3 vs. 101+ (2-0 vs. 201+, 0-0 vs. 300+).  RPI 107, SOS 2nd toughest in the nation.  2-8 last 10 games.

2003-04: 12-16, 4-13 SEC.  2-12 vs. top 50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 8-1 vs. 101+ (5-1 vs. 201+, 0-0 vs. 300+).  RPI 111, SOS 41st.  2-8 last 10 games.

2004-05: 18-12, 6-11 SEC.  1-8 vs. top 50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-3 vs. 101+ (9-0 vs. 201+, 3-0 vs. 300+).  RPI 114, SOS 115th.  4-6 last 10 games.

Three-year record

6-32 vs. top 50
6-9 vs. 51-100
11-6 vs. 101-200
16-1 vs. 200-330

Games against top 50 teams

2002-03: 15
2003-04: 14
2004-05: 9

Games against top 100 teams

2002-03: 21
2003-04: 19
2004-05: 13

Games against teams below 200

2002-03: 2
2003-04: 6
2004-05: 9

Games against teams below 300

2002-03: 0
2003-04: 0
2004-05: 3

[HogInMemphis]

What does it all mean? I'll summarize very briefly:

Heath has been softening the schedule becasuse he has no confidence in his own abilities to get the job done. Yet, he still can't get the job done vs. a very weak schedule. This is leading to Heath being fired after next season, if he makes it that long. No doubt about it unless he makes the NCAAT next year.

[Biggus Piggus]

You're gonna love this guys.  Arkansas's RPI this season has fallen to the lowest point it has been since 1986.

[hogwildinhouston]

There is one thing that Broyles needs to consider.   The program is out of control at this point.  At best, it's clear the only way Heath survives next year is a trip to the NCAA, and possibly even a win or 2.   So, what person can reasonably expect, given what we've seen, that he can accomplish that?  It could happen, but the odds are highly against it, especially considering this season he lost the same group he will depend on next year to accomplish that.   So, why let the program completely die by going through another season.  All you do is lose a year of eligibility of players like Brewer, Townes, Thomas, Hill, etc that a new coach could build with, as well as a recruiting season that is dying by the minute with Heath's uncertainty.

This is what makes me conclude that the Heath era needs to end now, rather than this time next year.

[pioneerhog]

You're gonna love this guys. Arkansas's RPI this season has fallen to the lowest point it has been since 1986.

Well with the present coach one can only believe it will go lower. If that is possible.

Unless we get a good PG that can shot it will.

[tophawg19]

i agree with hog wild the only way heath gets to the NCAA'S IS TO BUY TICKETS . wake forrest just lost . strange tourny no ones safe this year .

[PerryHog]

If the guy had 10 Macribwich all americans, we'd still underachieve.

Can't rebound, can't play man, can't draw an inbounds play. Can't stop an inbounds play. Give up layups, can only make layups. Never seen a zone, won't play a zone. Walks the ball up the court when our only chance is to run. Players just won't play for the man.

Bad, bad coach.

[tophawg19]

we even miss most layups . wasn't there a thing called fundamentals tought in basketball once upon a time .few teams solid even tourny teams.

[SultanofSwine]

Looking foward to next season is like scrubbing your butt with a steel wire brush just before you down a gallon of chilli with jalapenos.

[tophawg19]

haven't tried that but i know what you mean . does JFB HAVE A buy out CLAUSE IN HIS CONTRACT . i bet we could raise the money .