Power Rank/SB Nation: 3 Teams that are overrated

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Pretty good and informative article by Ed Feng of Power Rank. He picks out one SEC team in particular, and two others that you probably don't care for very much either.

How well can analytics predict the 2015 college football season? Can you make any conclusions before watching some games?

It seems like you shouldn't put much faith in preseason numbers. Randomness in football can instantly flip the emotions of the millions of Americans who connect their sanity to the actions of teenagers.

For example, consider the Auburn Tigers. In 2013, they had a magical season in which tipped hail mary passes fell in the hands of their receivers and missed field goals were returned for touchdowns. (Tigers fans didn't like it when I called this luck.)

Randomness swung the other way for Auburn in 2014. They went 2-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less (5-1 record in 2013). The tipped passes and special teams touchdowns evaporated.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/8/4/9096249/overrated-college-football-teams-auburn-florida-state-usc

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The War Eagle faithful will be crying big tears if their coveted team goes 8-5 again, when so much is expected of them by so many prognosticators.

[regi]

Gus and Coach Boom are two very good Coordinators, but to start a new QB with only 4 returning starters on offense and a defense with talent and depth  questions at DE, Safety, MLB and CB, it is shocking that some have them picked so High. Throw in a neutral site game vs Bobby Petrino, 7-5 at Hogs, Ags and LSU, plus UGA and Bama at home? 7-5 is a real possibility.

[Buff]

They'll beat Louisville but it's entirely rational to expect them to lose 4 games this year.

[Hog N Bama]

They'll beat Louisville but it's entirely rational to expect them to lose 4 games this year.

Hope your right. Really sick of the hype. Hope our Hogs curb stomp 'em. :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[ICEman]

The future has caught up to Gus, and his system will slowly lose its Luster.  As they say, nothing ages so fast as yesterday's view of tomorrow.

[Dominicanhog]

They'll beat Louisville but it's entirely rational to expect them to lose 4 games this year.

I'll take the points, Gus goes 6-6 this year and rumblings start...

[azhog10]

Pretty good and informative article by Ed Feng of Power Rank. He picks out one SEC team in particular, and two others that you probably don't care for very much either.

How well can analytics predict the 2015 college football season? Can you make any conclusions before watching some games?

It seems like you shouldn't put much faith in preseason numbers. Randomness in football can instantly flip the emotions of the millions of Americans who connect their sanity to the actions of teenagers.

For example, consider the Auburn Tigers. In 2013, they had a magical season in which tipped hail mary passes fell in the hands of their receivers and missed field goals were returned for touchdowns. (Tigers fans didn't like it when I called this luck.)

Randomness swung the other way for Auburn in 2014. They went 2-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less (5-1 record in 2013). The tipped passes and special teams touchdowns evaporated.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/8/4/9096249/overrated-college-football-teams-auburn-florida-state-usc

A similar article and research was done on the Arizona Cardinals for this upcoming season. It talked about their margin of win being so low, and the close games they won, by historical numbers was more of a fluke or luck than it was anything else. They showed that in subsequent years teams that get that "lucky" fall off back to the norm and their records go from 11 wins to 8. In college football losses go from 0 or 1, to 3 or 4 sometimes worse. So teams that are getting by the skin of their teeth or by "luck" end up coming back to where they should have been all along.

[DeltaBoy]

Gus should have a lackluster season but he pulled a few rabbits out of his hat too.

[EastexHawg]

I hope Auburn loses almost every game they ever play, but we really won't know who was or wasn't overrated until the season is over.

[Hogarusa]

The future has caught up to Gus, and his system will slowly lose its Luster.  As they say, nothing ages so fast as yesterday's view of tomorrow.

Stats and numbers don't suggest this to be true.  Their recruiting classes don't rank outside the top 10 and even in a season with 5 losses, they averaged 35 ppg.

[JackJohnson]

so does this mean that since we are 0-7 the past 2 years in 1 possession games that our "bad luck" will now turn into "good luck"?  If so we might be looking at our first ever SECC bc with a little "good" luck last year we might have won 11 games...

[lahawg1]

If we had any of auburn's luck last year we would have been 11-2

[ZERO]

I hope Auburn loses almost every game they ever play, but we really won't know who was or wasn't overrated until the season is over.

I really don't know who to root for in Louisville vs. Auburn. I'm just going to say screw it and cheer for the SEC team.

[GuvHog]

I really don't know who to root for in Louisville vs. Auburn. I'm just going to say screw it and cheer for the SEC team.

I'm big on rooting for SEC teams against non conference opponents too but I just can't bring myself to cheer for a team coached by Gus Malzhan. I don't really hate him, just don't like him.

[Hoggard]

I really don't know who to root for in Louisville vs. Auburn. I'm just going to say screw it and cheer for the SEC team.

I agree with this. But Petrino is a much much much better coach than Gus. Bobby didn't have a qb last year and still managed a decent season. I think he has a stud qb this year .. A kid named pass ? At any rate I always want the sec team to win to help with conference rankings. And I always like to see Bobby get beat. But Petrino gets very little credit for his ability to master special teams and like him or not he tends to be very good at making defensive adjustments at halftime. But he has played Gus enough to know how to shut his offense down. I'm afraid the Louisville Petrinos will win this one.

[Uncommon]

Here is the ranking of the 128 member FBS with those metrics:

http://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

Using those rankings, we are projected to go 8-4 with losses to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.

Arkansas and opponents rankings:
Losses
1. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Texas A&M
10. Ole Miss

15. Arkansas

Wins
24. Tennessee
25. Auburn
27. Missouri
31. Mississippi State
44. Texas Tech
74. Toledo
108. UTEP
FCS. UT-Martin

[The real Hogules]

I'll be shocked, if we manage to lose to A&M this Fall.
Other than that I could live with those results with this team.

[Buff]

Ole Miss?  Ain't happ'nin.  We own that booty.

[Hog N Bama]

Ole Miss?  Ain't happ'nin.  We own that booty.

HaHa.. got that right Bro. CBB owns it!

[bphi11ips]

I had Auburn at 8-4 last year.  The schedule sets up better for them in 2015 than it did last year.  If they get by LSU in Baton Rouge early, and I think they will, Auburn is likely to be 6-0 coming to Fayetteville.  Kentucky could surprise them, though.  Kentucky has a history of playing West teams tough at home mid-year, and they are creeping back up the talent scale.  What would be nice is a tough, narrow win for Auburn in Lexington followed by a punch in the mouth in Fayetteville, followed by a left, a right, and a knockout at home against Ole Miss, on the road at A&M, and at home against Georgia, finishing with a squeaker at home over Alabama.  That might get the Hogs a trip to Atlanta.

If Louisville beats Auburn in Atlanta it will be because Petrino still has Strong leftovers on defense.  I don't see that happening, though.  Louisville is an eastern version of Boise State.  Beats up on overrated mid-majors like Cincinnati but can't hang year-in-and-year-out with the big boys.

If Auburn's QB was all that, why didn't he start over Nick Marshall last year?  Marshall was good, but he couldn't beat good secondaries with his arm.  I'm not buying the Auburn hype, either.  8-4 fer shore.   

[WarPig88]

Did Aubie get lucky a couple of years ago? Absolutely but they played to within 15 seconds of winning it all when they were chosen to be in a rebuilding year.

How some dope can try to spin that as a negative is mind numbing.

Let's talk about luck. Your #3 qb is actually your best qb and you win a NC even though you only started him by being forced to after injury. That's luck.

[NaturalStateReb]

The trouble here is that there isn't a clear favorite in the west, and you can make a logical case for practically any of the teams.

For Auburn, it goes like this:  Johnson's been in Malzahn's offense for two years behind Marshall.  He's got a better arm than Marshall, although Marshall was faster.  The offense, which performed well, returns 7 starters.  The defense, which didn't perform well, returns 6, but includes the 3 top tacklers.  In order for Auburn to move ahead of last year's mark, they've got to at least hold serve on offense while improving some on defense.  They've got the pieces to do the former, while the defense pretty much has to improve:  Muschamp's a very good defensive coach, and you figure he'll improve the defense at least a little from last year's 9th place finish.  That might be just enough to win a division that's wide open with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia at home.  If they beat LSU at Baton Rouge in Week 3, I think they're going to be a tough out in the West.

[Hogarusa]

If Louisville beats Auburn in Atlanta it will be because Petrino still has Strong leftovers on defense.  I don't see that happening, though.  Louisville is an eastern version of Boise State.  Beats up on overrated mid-majors like Cincinnati but can't hang year-in-and-year-out with the big boys.

Interesting take. Quite false though.  Everyone knows of Boise States wins over P5 teams but Louisville has beaten plenty of P5 teams themselves.  Should be a fun and entertaining game for Arkansas fans to watch

[Biggus Piggus]

Stats and numbers don't suggest this to be true.  Their recruiting classes don't rank outside the top 10 and even in a season with 5 losses, they averaged 35 ppg.

Even averaging 35 ppg and playing an FBS team and San Jose State, they went 8-5.

[WarPig88]

Even averaging 35 ppg and playing an FBS team and San Jose State, they went 8-5.

Auburn's defense and ours are pretty similar in terms of losses and returnees. Thing is, we lost more than Auburn on defense in that we lost our top 3 tfl guys and 3 or our 4 top tacklers. Philon was extremely valuable in that he kept the other team's O line from getting to the second level as easy and had to be accounted for.

So why is it a given that we are going to be good on defense and that Auburn won't? Do they lack talent on that side of the ball?

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

They'll beat Louisville but it's entirely rational to expect them to lose 4 games this year.

Maybe, maybe not.

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

I agree with this. But Petrino is a much much much better coach than Gus. Bobby didn't have a qb last year and still managed a decent season. I think he has a stud qb this year .. A kid named pass ? At any rate I always want the sec team to win to help with conference rankings. And I always like to see Bobby get beat. But Petrino gets very little credit for his ability to master special teams and like him or not he tends to be very good at making defensive adjustments at halftime. But he has played Gus enough to know how to shut his offense down. I'm afraid the Louisville Petrinos will win this one.

Jawon Pass just committed 6-4 225 4.5 40.  4.0 gpa, but will be a senior I'm highschool this year I believe.  However Petrino had to play 3 QB's last year due to injuries. Bonnefon pardon spelling should start opener this year. 

Wouldn't shock me at all if they beat auburn.

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

I had Auburn at 8-4 last year.  The schedule sets up better for them in 2015 than it did last year.  If they get by LSU in Baton Rouge early, and I think they will, Auburn is likely to be 6-0 coming to Fayetteville.  Kentucky could surprise them, though.  Kentucky has a history of playing West teams tough at home mid-year, and they are creeping back up the talent scale.  What would be nice is a tough, narrow win for Auburn in Lexington followed by a punch in the mouth in Fayetteville, followed by a left, a right, and a knockout at home against Ole Miss, on the road at A&M, and at home against Georgia, finishing with a squeaker at home over Alabama.  That might get the Hogs a trip to Atlanta.

If Louisville beats Auburn in Atlanta it will be because Petrino still has Strong leftovers on defense.  I don't see that happening, though.  Louisville is an eastern version of Boise State.  Beats up on overrated mid-majors like Cincinnati but can't hang year-in-and-year-out with the big boys.

If Auburn's QB was all that, why didn't he start over Nick Marshall last year?  Marshall was good, but he couldn't beat good secondaries with his arm.  I'm not buying the Auburn hype, either.  8-4 fer shore.   

Surprisingly to many I'm sure. Petrino recruiting at Da Ville is on the rise on both sides of the ball.

[Biggus Piggus]

Auburn's defense and ours are pretty similar in terms of losses and returnees. Thing is, we lost more than Auburn on defense in that we lost our top 3 tfl guys and 3 or our 4 top tacklers. Philon was extremely valuable in that he kept the other team's O line from getting to the second level as easy and had to be accounted for.

So why is it a given that we are going to be good on defense and that Auburn won't? Do they lack talent on that side of the ball?

Auburn's defense was pretty lousy. Arkansas's improved through last season and was very strong in the second half of the year. Auburn lost a lot of defensive tackles and didn't really replace them. Arkansas is legitimately three deep at every defensive line position, regardless of how many players didn't return off last year's team.

Arkansas lost one starting linebacker. Auburn lost one. Arkansas has improved depth in its secondary, Auburn doesn't.

Auburn will rely a lot on its starting defensive ends, both coming off ACL injuries. Their third-best DE is probably a true freshman.

The free safety led Auburn in tackles last season. Arkansas's top tacklers were two linebackers and a defensive end. You don't want a safety to lead your team in tackles, for obvious reasons.

Auburn had 22 interceptions last year, most of them by players who return this season. Also gave up 22 touchdown passes and 22 rushing touchdowns. In general, their defense seems angled against the pass + it still sucked against the pass. If not for all the INTs they would have been steamrolled. Only recovered five fumbles, which betrays a lack of physical play.

I don't remember ever seeing a team that gave up more than 20 TD passes and picked off more than 20 too. That is ridiculously boom-bust.

Anyway, Arkansas is well positioned to build on last year's progress, while Will Muschamp is trying to reverse a multiyear downtrend on defense at Auburn. He's probably stuck playing veterans in the secondary until he can work some better speed into the lineup. A couple of those lettermen are good, but not all of them.

[bphi11ips]

Interesting take. Quite false though.  Everyone knows of Boise States wins over P5 teams but Louisville has beaten plenty of P5 teams themselves.  Should be a fun and entertaining game for Arkansas fans to watch

Louisville is now in  "P5" conference.  It's still a mid-major.

[hogcard1964]

Here is the ranking of the 128 member FBS with those metrics:

http://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

Using those rankings, we are projected to go 8-4 with losses to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.

Arkansas and opponents rankings:
Losses
1. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Texas A&M
10. Ole Miss

15. Arkansas

Wins
24. Tennessee
25. Auburn
27. Missouri
31. Mississippi State
44. Texas Tech
74. Toledo
108. UTEP
FCS. UT-Martin

There's very little chance we lose to A and M or Ole Miss.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Here is the ranking of the 128 member FBS with those metrics:

http://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

Using those rankings, we are projected to go 8-4 with losses to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.

Arkansas and opponents rankings:
Losses
1. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Texas A&M
10. Ole Miss

15. Arkansas

Wins
24. Tennessee
25. Auburn
27. Missouri
31. Mississippi State
44. Texas Tech
74. Toledo
108. UTEP
FCS. UT-Martin

I think that we win 2 of the 4 that they project that we lose and Tennessee, Auburn and Missouri could all be very competitive games that aren't decided until the 4th quarter. The potential exists to lose 2 of those 3 if we haven't learned how to finish.

[Tusks]

Can someone PLEASE tell me why OMU is in the top anything.  They DO NOT HAVE A QB.  Do you know what it's like to start a new inexperienced QB in the SEC.  On top of that I'm not impressed with their running game.

They may have a good D but when you're on the field 35 minutes a game you're not going to win many games.

I just don't get why anyone thinks they will win more than 6 this year.

[WarPig88]

Auburn's defense was pretty lousy. Arkansas's improved through last season and was very strong in the second half of the year. Auburn lost a lot of defensive tackles and didn't really replace them. Arkansas is legitimately three deep at every defensive line position, regardless of how many players didn't return off last year's team.

Arkansas lost one starting linebacker. Auburn lost one. Arkansas has improved depth in its secondary, Auburn doesn't.

Auburn will rely a lot on its starting defensive ends, both coming off ACL injuries. Their third-best DE is probably a true freshman.

The free safety led Auburn in tackles last season. Arkansas's top tacklers were two linebackers and a defensive end. You don't want a safety to lead your team in tackles, for obvious reasons.

Auburn had 22 interceptions last year, most of them by players who return this season. Also gave up 22 touchdown passes and 22 rushing touchdowns. In general, their defense seems angled against the pass + it still sucked against the pass. If not for all the INTs they would have been steamrolled. Only recovered five fumbles, which betrays a lack of physical play.

I don't remember ever seeing a team that gave up more than 20 TD passes and picked off more than 20 too. That is ridiculously boom-bust.

Anyway, Arkansas is well positioned to build on last year's progress, while Will Muschamp is trying to reverse a multiyear downtrend on defense at Auburn. He's probably stuck playing veterans in the secondary until he can work some better speed into the lineup. A couple of those lettermen are good, but not all of them.

Thanks for the info, Biggus. Good stuff.