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If you had to bet $5000 on....

Started by HogFanInBryant, December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm

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HogFanInBryant

the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!

swineology

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm
the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!

Bama -
and the over

 

jgphillips3

Bama, Over

I see them blowing Washington off the field and winning by at least 21 points.

East Clintwood

Any dog can be a seeing eye dog if you don't care where you're going.

          Like  blows - Bring back Karma

DLUXHOG

"Don't go in anyplace you'd be ashamed to die in..."
(you might get this someday)

RME

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/washington-alabama-odds-december-31-2016-750040

Predicted score: Wash 33.7 - Bama 41.6
60% of current bets are taking Bama to cover, 61% are taking the over
Bama is 9-4 against the spread this year, Wash is 7-6
Bama is 6-7 against the over/under, Wash is 8-5


As a betting guy, I'm taking Bama to cover and the under. I think Bama wins by about 21 points but doesn't allow Wash to score enough to make the over.

But, OddsShark says the exact opposite of my gut. And I'm the losing bettor a lot.

HoggusMaximus

If I were you I'd have to go back and watch Washingtons games, see how they fair against teams that are run heavy. Can they put up enough points on Alabama to cover the O/U. I'm gonna say over 54 is a good guess, but I don't really know enough about Washington.

radar


Professor Psychosis

I'd take Washington at +15.  They'll probably get blown out, but, Chris Petersen was very good about getting his Boise teams up to play superior competition, particularly when they had a lot of prep time, and I could see that happening here.

Or they could get blown out.

HotlantaHog

I hope Washington wins but it is a mistake to bet against Bama in any game that really matters.

Would bet on Bama and under.

onebadrubi

I'd take a good long look at team totals.

Bubba's Bruisers

I will put enmity between you and the woman, and between your offspring and her offspring; he shall bruise your head, and you shall bruise his heal.

Genesis 3:15

hobhog

Peterson has proven to be a great coach and giant killer. I'd take the Huskies and 15 but....

 

pignparadise

I would try to find a money line and bet on Bama. You might only win 1500 but I believe Bama will win but it might be close.
"The race is long.. and in the end it's only with yourself.....", Baz Luhrman "Sunscreen"

hoggusamoungus

Washington average 44 ppg and scored 31 or more in twelve of their thirteen games.   Bama's D is awesome but as Ole Miss and Clemson have proven, they can give up some points.  Taking the over might be smart.

hog.goblin

Quote from: Professor Psychosis on December 26, 2016, 07:17:46 am
I'd take Washington at +15.  They'll probably get blown out, but, Chris Petersen was very good about getting his Boise teams up to play superior competition, particularly when they had a lot of prep time, and I could see that happening here.

Or they could get blown out.

Exactly, which is why you never bet on sports, except as a form of entertainment

Youngsta71701

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm
the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!
Alabama 15
Over 54 points scored...mostly by Alabama... ;) ...lol
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Youngsta71701

Quote from: hog.goblin on December 26, 2016, 09:59:38 am
Exactly, which is why you never bet on sports, except as a form of entertainment
I only bet the game straight up if I do bet.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

hogsmash12

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm
the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!

Can someone explain what this means to a betting moron?


jkstock04

Tough to bet against Bama at this point. Doesn't make much logical sense.

Where they really do damage and win ATS is in the 2nd half.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Danny J


HogFanInBryant

Quote from: hoggusamoungus on December 26, 2016, 09:44:32 am
Washington average 44 ppg and scored 31 or more in twelve of their thirteen games.   Bama's D is awesome but as Ole Miss and Clemson have proven, they can give up some points.  Taking the over might be smart.

Ding ding ding...we have a winner.  I think the game goes WAY OVER the 54!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

k.c.hawg

Quote from: pignparadise on December 26, 2016, 09:30:57 am
I would try to find a money line and bet on Bama. You might only win 1500 but I believe Bama will win but it might be close.

People would be standing in line for that. $5k on the money line would win about $800.
Just sitting on the deck with a cold beer and a hot tequila watching the razorbacks roam.

 

PorkRinds

I'm not sure Washington can hang with Bama's defense. I feel like the bama DL is going to punish the Washington QB and they're not going to score nearly as many points as the usually do. It's an easy bet for me.

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm
the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!
the over and Bama. I think Bama is the safest bet.
You must be on one if you think i aint on one! ¥420¥   «roastin da bomb in fayettenam» Purspirit Gang
@Slackaveli

yraciv

Quote from: pignparadise on December 26, 2016, 09:30:57 am
I would try to find a money line and bet on Bama. You might only win 1500 but I believe Bama will win but it might be close.

Betting theML on a heavy favorite is a loser bet. Would you really risk $50 to win $5 in a game that you expect to be close? I'm seeing the ML is like -850

I'd play the under. I don't expect Washington to move the ball too much, ad Bama cruises into the championship.

jdelo77

It would be interesting to see what the first half line is ? I would bet Bama by -10 , but I could also see Peterson pulling out all the stops to try and win ...this line is trickier than most people think !!!

GolfnHog

Bama and Under. Peterson has a proven track record in getting teams ready, however  the outlier is that he's never had to do it against a Saban team that has the same time to prepare.
Have you ever listened to someone  or read what they put into thoughts and wondered...."who ties your shoelaces for you?"

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Youngsta71701

Alabama's defense is going to score more than Washington... ;)
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

hogsmash12


tophawg19

i'd only do the over . after all we hit Bama for 30 and if not for a ref's blown call would have been more
if you ain't a hawg you ain't chitlins

depressed_fan

This would be the type of game you would only bet on for entertainment and rooting purposes, not to supplement your income because it's pretty much spot on. Vegas didn't go to sleep on the line. 

Knowing Saban's trends the way I do he likes to stay conservative in games like this when he knows his defense has a clear advantage. Factor in Kiffins head probably being in  his new job and the young bama qb probably having some rust and jitters, washington's slow QB and mediocre at best O-Line, I think the under on the total is safest. The 15 is 50/50 in my mind but if the game trends low scoring, most likely Bama could win this by 7-14 but clearly be 3 touchdowns better in talent. That's Saban's M.O. I would go with the under on total and Washington to cover 15. But I would split my 5000 about 3500 to 1500 and put most on total points under. 

The game could easily be something like 31-3, 30-10, that's why i would go under on total.

12247

If I were dropping 5 dimes on this game, I would just take the over 54.  It is the less stressful bet and you can root for both teams to score and score often.  The biggest problem with betting this game is the time off factor.  How will that effect the teams.  Often offenses need time to get their timing and execution back after a layoff.  Defenses most often come out more ready unless they end up facing  a bunch of plays they were not expecting.

I might also put  small amount on a 2 bet parlay where you get odds on choosing 2 choices.  I might put 2 dollars ($200.00) on the over and BAMA - 15.  If both win, I would win $250.00.  If either fails to cover, I lose the bet.

gchamblee

take your 5 grand and put it all into Nvidia stock.

popcornhog

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on December 25, 2016, 11:10:55 pm
the Alabama/Washington game on New Years Eve...which bet would you make?
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over 54 total points scored
Under 54 total points scored

Please chime in...I'm very curious to see where everybody is leaning.  Thanks!

In order:

Under
Washington +15
Bama -15
Over

If I had to pick a score, I'd say

Bama 30
Washington 21

WPS

widespreadsooie

Washington. Line is inflated for public perception of the matchup and Chris Peterson is a phenomenal coach with a more than capable QB.

code red

Bama will cover I'd think the under tho...I can see the Huskies getting shut out.
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today."  Dr. Lou

hogsanity

Bama -15. I'd take the under as well simply because the one time WA faced a really good D, USC, they did not show much. I see this one ending 31-14.

That said I absolutely stink at picking games for money so................
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

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jgphillips3

I feel very confident in Bama covering.  I also think it will be the over but that all depends.  I'm seeing the score being on the order of 42-17.  That would put it in the over.  However, it could easily be 31-10.  So, I would certainly pick Bama to cover but that over/under is set real darn close.  Hard to predict with any confidence.  I think Bama is far and away the superior team and will totally overmatch Washington.

k.c.hawg

Quote from: 12247 on December 26, 2016, 07:38:58 pm
If I were dropping 5 dimes on this game, I would just take the over 54.  It is the less stressful bet and you can root for both teams to score and score often.  The biggest problem with betting this game is the time off factor.  How will that effect the teams.  Often offenses need time to get their timing and execution back after a layoff.  Defenses most often come out more ready unless they end up facing  a bunch of plays they were not expecting.

I might also put  small amount on a 2 bet parlay where you get odds on choosing 2 choices.  I might put 2 dollars ($200.00) on the over and BAMA - 15.  If both win, I would win $250.00. If either fails to cover, I lose the bet.

You either need a new bookie or a new calculator.
Just sitting on the deck with a cold beer and a hot tequila watching the razorbacks roam.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

December 30, 2016, 02:13:21 pm #42 Last Edit: December 31, 2016, 05:01:22 pm by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson
Quote from: gchamblee on December 26, 2016, 08:22:20 pm
take your 5 grand and put it all into Nvidia stock.

The epitome of blank you are. (Yoda)  nobody gives a rip ya Douch
Let's make some waves.

longtimeHogfan

Until somebody beats 'em Bama's still the best. 

Bama and the over
I don't like to plan my day because then the word premeditated comes into the conversation.

HOGSWEAT

Whats the money line on Washington?

DocHogliday

I beg to differ, sir. We started a game we never got to finish. "Play for Blood," remember?

HogFanInBryant

Bama line down to 14...some places have run down to 13.5 which means "wise guy" money is loving Washington.

HotlantaHog

Quote from: gchamblee on December 26, 2016, 08:22:20 pm
take your 5 grand and put it all into Nvidia stock.
Or short the stock .... it is way too loved.... however great the company is.

hog.goblin

Bama covered, but hopefully you took the under

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Yes as I mentioned earlier. Bama and under. Easy money
Let's make some waves.