Statements of fact about Razorback football

[Biggus Piggus]

This is the season hardest hit by the springtime firing of Bobby Petrino, an entire season in limbo, and a recruiting class impaired by the late-year hiring of a new head coach. The number of players redshirted and developed in 2012-13 was paltry. This team should have more fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors. Many more. This is the worst of that impact. Those problems should begin to ease next season.

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2012 (all had to redshirt at some point to still be here):

TE Jeremy Sprinkle
WR Keon Hatcher

DE Deatrich Wise, JaMichael Winston
DT Taiwan Johnson
CB Jared Collins
K Adam McFain

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2013:

QB Austin Allen (RS)
OT Dan Skipper
WR Drew Morgan
TE Anthony Antwine (RS)

DE Tevin Beanum (RS), Karl Roesler (RS)
LB Brooks Ellis
CB D.J. Dean
S De'Andre Coley (RS)

Here are this year's regulars who were signed in 2014:

OT Brian Wallace (RS), Jake Hall (RS)
C Frank Ragnow
TE Jack Kraus (RS)
WR Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister

DT Bijhon Jackson
LB Randy Ramsey (RS)
CB Henre' Toliver
S Santos Ramirez (RS), Josh Liddell

From the 2013-14 classes, we're playing 10 players who never redshirted. How many of them were that kind of talent, who didn't need to redshirt? Few. We had a two-season coaching transition. Recruiting for 2013 was seriously impaired, of course. But the 2010-12 classes also were stripped down - combination of high miss rates and typical post-coaching-change attrition.

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

That was a three-year run of disappointment that indisputably caused later problems. Bret Bielema had to play more freshmen in 2013-14 because of the failures of 2010-12. I don't know how many times I've seen people come on here and try to claim that Bobby Petrino's recruiting was adequate, solely because some of his recruits were good. Too many of them were not. Far too many. And that simple fact hampered the ability of Bielema to institute a redshirt-and-develop program at Arkansas.

This season has been weird. It could end up being a weird path to 8-4, which is where many of us expected to be. The volatility of results has had Razorback fans focusing on the wrong things. We all want to know why the defense has been so bad at times. Well, start with the above.

It has been a struggle for Arkansas to navigate the way back after things went so wrong. Part of the "so wrong" is right there above. Forty-seven misses in a three-year span, BEFORE Bielema's first recruiting class. The poor quality of past recruiting complicated the ability of the new coach to develop young recruits.

Only relatively recently has Bielema's program been able to settle into a redshirt-and-develop process. If we do not see improvement in the next few seasons, then maybe we should question the direction of the program.

Some people have this fantasy about how quickly Arkansas could be turned around by a different coach. They say, just go out and throw money at a top name.

I know three things for certain.

1. The coaching brotherhood largely regards Arkansas as a high-risk job. Fans/boosters have high expectations (they believe we should have been satisfied with Nutt, and they also believe we think any Razorback coach should be the next Petrino - and they don't respect us for hiring Petrino either). The job, in their view, has serious recruiting constraints. The state does not produce much talent. Some neighboring states are poor territories too. Others are intensely competitive.

2. Hiring football coaches would be hard for any Arkansas AD. He would take heat for bringing in an up-and-comer, because fan/booster expectations are stupidly high. Look at our last two hires. One was an untouchable. The other was a high-major coach who fell in our laps.

3. If you run off Bielema too soon, the job of hiring a football coach at Arkansas will get infinitely more difficult.

And that is where we are. Stop creating "fire the coach" threads, because they are wildly irrational.

[Atlhogfan1]

Maybe they will listen to you. 

[Al Boarland]

This is the season hardest hit by the springtime firing of Bobby Petrino, an entire season in limbo, and a recruiting class impaired by the late-year hiring of a new head coach. The number of players redshirted and developed in 2012-13 was paltry. This team should have more fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors. Many more. This is the worst of that impact. Those problems should begin to ease next season.

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2012 (all had to redshirt at some point to still be here):

TE Jeremy Sprinkle
WR Keon Hatcher

DE Deatrich Wise, JaMichael Winston
DT Taiwan Johnson
CB Jared Collins
K Adam McFain

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2013:

QB Austin Allen (RS)
OT Dan Skipper
WR Drew Morgan
TE Anthony Antwine (RS)

DE Tevin Beanum (RS), Karl Roesler (RS)
LB Brooks Ellis
CB D.J. Dean
S De'Andre Coley (RS)

Here are this year's regulars who were signed in 2014:

OT Brian Wallace (RS), Jake Hall (RS)
C Frank Ragnow
TE Jack Kraus (RS)
WR Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister

DT Bijhon Jackson
LB Randy Ramsey (RS)
CB Henre' Toliver
S Santos Ramirez (RS), Josh Liddell

From the 2013-14 classes, we're playing 10 players who never redshirted. How many of them were that kind of talent, who didn't need to redshirt? Few. We had a two-season coaching transition. Recruiting for 2013 was seriously impaired, of course. But the 2010-12 classes also were stripped down - combination of high miss rates and typical post-coaching-change attrition.

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

That was a three-year run of disappointment that indisputably caused later problems. Bret Bielema had to play more freshmen in 2013-14 because of the failures of 2010-12. I don't know how many times I've seen people come on here and try to claim that Bobby Petrino's recruiting was adequate, solely because some of his recruits were good. Too many of them were not. Far too many. And that simple fact hampered the ability of Bielema to institute a redshirt-and-develop program at Arkansas.

This season has been weird. It could end up being a weird path to 8-4, which is where many of us expected to be. The volatility of results has had Razorback fans focusing on the wrong things. We all want to know why the defense has been so bad at times. Well, start with the above.

It has been a struggle for Arkansas to navigate the way back after things went so wrong. Part of the "so wrong" is right there above. Forty-seven misses in a three-year span, BEFORE Bielema's first recruiting class. The poor quality of past recruiting complicated the ability of the new coach to develop young recruits.

Only relatively recently has Bielema's program been able to settle into a redshirt-and-develop process. If we do not see improvement in the next few seasons, then maybe we should question the direction of the program.

Some people have this fantasy about how quickly Arkansas could be turned around by a different coach. They say, just go out and throw money at a top name.

I know three things for certain.

1. The coaching brotherhood largely regards Arkansas as a high-risk job. Fans/boosters have high expectations (they believe we should have been satisfied with Nutt, and they also believe we think any Razorback coach should be the next Petrino - and they don't respect us for hiring Petrino either). The job, in their view, has serious recruiting constraints. The state does not produce much talent. Some neighboring states are poor territories too. Others are intensely competitive.

2. Hiring football coaches would be hard for any Arkansas AD. He would take heat for bringing in an up-and-comer, because fan/booster expectations are stupidly high. Look at our last two hires. One was an untouchable. The other was a high-major coach who fell in our laps.

3. If you run off Bielema too soon, the job of hiring a football coach at Arkansas will get infinitely more difficult.

And that is where we are. Stop creating "fire the coach" threads, because they are wildly irrational.

I'll be interested to see your explaination after next season.

[Biggus Piggus]

I'll be interested to see your explaination after next season.

It will be the same story next season, unless the team obviously jumps the tracks. One more season is not going to change the direction a ton, because not enough players were redshirted in 2013-14. The 2015-16 classes had more redshirts.

On the margin, we should see some improvement next season. Might not be W-L improvement, but better-quality depth should appear here and there.

Thinking further - you act as though these are not facts, and the story of 2010-14 is going to change with time. That is a foolish notion.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

This.
Starting over again would be incredibly stupid. 
Let coach continue to build his program his way.  Would do us zero good if we started over yet again.

[Al Boarland]

It will be the same story next season, unless the team obviously jumps the tracks. One more season is not going to change the direction a ton, because not enough players were redshirted in 2013-14. The 2015-16 classes had more redshirts.

On the margin, we should see some improvement next season. Might not be W-L improvement, but better-quality depth should appear here and there.

Thinking further - you act as though these are not facts, and the story of 2010-14 is going to change with time. That is a foolish notion.

You have to bring in quality depth relative to the competition you face.

[Biggus Piggus]

This.
Starting over again would be incredibly stupid. 
Let coach continue to build his program his way.  Would do us zero good if we started over yet again.

I am tired of gobs of threads being basically this:

I'm gonna rant!

--Your an idot.

Stop criticizing me for ranting!

--Your an idot.

No you're an idot!

[Biggus Piggus]

You have to bring in quality depth relative to the competition you face.

Whatever. This is the season when the lack of past development hit us the hardest. This season. We're passing this moment. Very soon.

[DiamondHogFan]

Whatever. This is the season when the lack of past development hit us the hardest. This season. We're passing this moment. Very soon.

I have seen a few people throw around the "6 year turnaround" thing that apparently CBB said himself.  I think that is the moment we can truly judge CBB's time as the head hog.  If we look the same in 2018 as we do now, then CBB will start feeling heat.  Right now, he is the ONLY coach for the job.  And it should remain that way until further notice.

[Al Boarland]

Whatever. This is the season when the lack of past development hit us the hardest. This season. We're passing this moment. Very soon.

But you said next season won't be much better. I agree, but if there are staff changes that will slow the timeline down even more for your theory on development. Not to mention we just don't bring in the kind of talent many other programs do.

I've seen discussions about speed and size. There is a lack of speed because CBB and co opted for size. If they shift to more speed they will have to settle for smaller players because the big AND fast guys are highly rated and the program just doesn't have a lot of success landing those guys.

[Biggus Piggus]

But you said next season won't be much better.

Next season will be qualitatively better, but the schedule is worse.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

Oklahoma state was nothing before 2002. They are a very very solid football program right now thanks to the path mike gundy made.  I could see coach Bielema on a similar path at Arkansas.  A steady progression to being a very solid football program.

One issue with this comparison is Oklahoma state doesn't face the type of competition we face on a weekly basis.

[Piggfoot]

To the OP. Many of us have gone back as you did and understand the problems Bielema faced when he arrived. The program was FUBAR. As you stated he had to play early many players who weren't ready. Unfortunately, many rabid Petrinoites keep yelling "4" years. Actually Pertino should be held accountable for JLS' year. These people, many delusional and unrealistic will continue their rabble. They have an agenda calling for a Superman Coach, unfailing in his recruiting and making comparisons with other programs not in the SECw.
Bielema said when he arrived the reason he came was to pay his assistants more to keep quality people. Long needs to open up the wallet and allow the hiring of the best assistants out there. Great assistants made JFB. With the exception of CDE and Coach Rhodes I don't see
a P5 head coach in the making from the rest.

[Al Boarland]

I have seen a few people throw around the "6 year turnaround" thing that apparently CBB said himself.  I think that is the moment we can truly judge CBB's time as the head hog.  If we look the same in 2018 as we do now, then CBB will start feeling heat.  Right now, he is the ONLY coach for the job.  And it should remain that way until further notice.

Agree completely. A coaching change is ludicrous. CBB is a good fit for this program and the state of Arkansas. Am I confident he will take the program to new heights? Nope. I don't think anyone can. Not until I see a dramatic influx of talent.

[Al Boarland]

Oklahoma state was nothing before 2002. They are a very very solid football program right now thanks to the path mike gundy made.  I could see coach Bielema on a similar path at Arkansas.  A steady progression to being a very solid football program.

One issue with this comparison is Oklahoma state doesn't face the type of competition we face on a weekly basis.

Ok St isn't in the SEC.

[Biggus Piggus]

To the OP. Many of us have gone back as you did and understand the problems Bielema faced when he arrived. The program was FUBAR. As you stated he had to play early many players who weren't ready. Unfortunately, many rabid Petrinoites keep yelling "4" years. Actually Pertino should be held accountable for JLS' year.

Petrino should be held accountable for the abysmal hit rate of the 2010-12 recruiting classes. If he had simply recruited OL, LB and receivers the way he should have, the transition wouldn't have been nearly as hard.

[Jim Harris]

Whatever. This is the season when the lack of past development hit us the hardest. This season. We're passing this moment. Very soon.

Passing this moment with a great chance to be 8-4. Not 4-8.

[a0ashle]

Good Analysis BP... Arkansas is not the type of program that is just primed to start recruiting well if only we had the right coach. Arkansas is the type of program that needs stability at the top.

[Kevin]

great info

[hogsanity]

Eastex, Ironhog and a few others should be arriving shortly to refute the OP.

Nice work Biggus.

[Atlhogfan1]

Eastex, Ironhog and a few others should be arriving shortly to refute the OP.

Nice work Biggus.

Iron is entertaining though.  We need to attract some more of those boys from Junction City, Dumas, Rivercrest, Helena, Marianna and let them smoke all the weed they want and never go to class.  Speed sanity.  Pay attention.  NWA doesn't have it.  Fay high school is just a bunch of slow, soft nerds.  We need those hard kids from the streets and backroads. 

[Deep Shoat]

Passing this moment with a great chance to be 8-4. Not 4-8.

This can't be stated clearly enough. 

[Biggus Piggus]

One more factor to keep in mind. Back in Nutt times, Arkansas played an average of three really good opponents per season. That jumped to five during Petrino's years. In Bielema's time, almost six. This year is hard to compare, because there's so many teams that won't have great W/L records but are going to be solidly above .500.

In Nutt and Petrino years, Arkansas averaged almost five weakling opponents per year. This is because the SEC often had numerous bad teams.

It looks like the four-year average during Bielema's time is going to be three.

So from Nutt to Bielema, Arkansas's schedule has gotten three games tougher on the upper end, two games tougher on the bottom end.

[Knot2brite]

I don't always agree with the OP but in this case I have been thinking this for a while and I do agree. This is why BB said it would take six years. Next year may not see an improvement in the win/loss column but rather in the competitiveness category. For a lot of people that will not be enough. If, after 6 years, we are not seeing an increase in competitiveness and win/losses...then there is room for change in the head coach

[LZH]

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

Yikes. That's unreal. I knew it was bad, but darn. The hell of it is, with his personality and reputation as an X & O guru, Petrino could have been a great recruiter. Great coach...total dick.

[hogblitz]

Huh.  So, it's Petrino's recruiting that is to blame for giving up nearly 1,000 yards rushing in 2 out of last 3 games.  Gotcha! 

[Pork Twain]

I have seen a few people throw around the "6 year turnaround" thing that apparently CBB said himself.  I think that is the moment we can truly judge CBB's time as the head hog.  If we look the same in 2018 as we do now, then CBB will start feeling heat.  Right now, he is the ONLY coach for the job.  And it should remain that way until further notice.

Six years sounds about right for a coach that builds through red-shirts and walk-ons.  Turning a mess like this around is not quick

[defcoach]

This is the season hardest hit by the springtime firing of Bobby Petrino, an entire season in limbo, and a recruiting class impaired by the late-year hiring of a new head coach. The number of players redshirted and developed in 2012-13 was paltry. This team should have more fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors. Many more. This is the worst of that impact. Those problems should begin to ease next season.

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2012 (all had to redshirt at some point to still be here):

TE Jeremy Sprinkle
WR Keon Hatcher

DE Deatrich Wise, JaMichael Winston
DT Taiwan Johnson
CB Jared Collins
K Adam McFain

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2013:

QB Austin Allen (RS)
OT Dan Skipper
WR Drew Morgan
TE Anthony Antwine (RS)

DE Tevin Beanum (RS), Karl Roesler (RS)
LB Brooks Ellis
CB D.J. Dean
S De'Andre Coley (RS)

Here are this year's regulars who were signed in 2014:

OT Brian Wallace (RS), Jake Hall (RS)
C Frank Ragnow
TE Jack Kraus (RS)
WR Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister

DT Bijhon Jackson
LB Randy Ramsey (RS)
CB Henre' Toliver
S Santos Ramirez (RS), Josh Liddell

From the 2013-14 classes, we're playing 10 players who never redshirted. How many of them were that kind of talent, who didn't need to redshirt? Few. We had a two-season coaching transition. Recruiting for 2013 was seriously impaired, of course. But the 2010-12 classes also were stripped down - combination of high miss rates and typical post-coaching-change attrition.

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

That was a three-year run of disappointment that indisputably caused later problems. Bret Bielema had to play more freshmen in 2013-14 because of the failures of 2010-12. I don't know how many times I've seen people come on here and try to claim that Bobby Petrino's recruiting was adequate, solely because some of his recruits were good. Too many of them were not. Far too many. And that simple fact hampered the ability of Bielema to institute a redshirt-and-develop program at Arkansas.

This season has been weird. It could end up being a weird path to 8-4, which is where many of us expected to be. The volatility of results has had Razorback fans focusing on the wrong things. We all want to know why the defense has been so bad at times. Well, start with the above.

It has been a struggle for Arkansas to navigate the way back after things went so wrong. Part of the "so wrong" is right there above. Forty-seven misses in a three-year span, BEFORE Bielema's first recruiting class. The poor quality of past recruiting complicated the ability of the new coach to develop young recruits.

Only relatively recently has Bielema's program been able to settle into a redshirt-and-develop process. If we do not see improvement in the next few seasons, then maybe we should question the direction of the program.

Some people have this fantasy about how quickly Arkansas could be turned around by a different coach. They say, just go out and throw money at a top name.

I know three things for certain.

1. The coaching brotherhood largely regards Arkansas as a high-risk job. Fans/boosters have high expectations (they believe we should have been satisfied with Nutt, and they also believe we think any Razorback coach should be the next Petrino - and they don't respect us for hiring Petrino either). The job, in their view, has serious recruiting constraints. The state does not produce much talent. Some neighboring states are poor territories too. Others are intensely competitive.

2. Hiring football coaches would be hard for any Arkansas AD. He would take heat for bringing in an up-and-comer, because fan/booster expectations are stupidly high. Look at our last two hires. One was an untouchable. The other was a high-major coach who fell in our laps.

3. If you run off Bielema too soon, the job of hiring a football coach at Arkansas will get infinitely more difficult.

And that is where we are. Stop creating "fire the coach" threads, because they are wildly irrational.

Smartest post I have read on Hogville in years....Bravo, Biggus!!!

[hogblitz]

It's also Petrino's fault that the defense has regressed over the last 3 years and had 9 returning starters that get worse each game.  It is also his fault that this is the 4th worst rush defense in 9 years. 

[SavoySeamster]

Facts just aren't as fun to read as people's ranting. Good post though!

[WilsonHog]

It's also Petrino's fault that the defense has regressed over the last 3 years and had 9 returning starters that get worse each game.  It is also his fault that this is the 4th worst rush defense in 9 years.

You are embarrassing yourself. Stop.

[hogblitz]

You are embarrassing yourself. Stop.

Oh.  Do you not agree that this is Petrino's fault?  Is anything that I stated not a fact?  I am not speaking of wins and losses. 

[LZH]

It's also Petrino's fault that the defense has regressed over the last 3 years and had 9 returning starters that get worse each game.  It is also his fault that this is the 4th worst rush defense in 9 years. 

I don't disagree, but at least 46 out of 75 players that were "good enough" to warrant a scholarship never played? That's tough....for any program.

[1highhog]

This is the season hardest hit by the springtime firing of Bobby Petrino, an entire season in limbo, and a recruiting class impaired by the late-year hiring of a new head coach. The number of players redshirted and developed in 2012-13 was paltry. This team should have more fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors. Many more. This is the worst of that impact. Those problems should begin to ease next season.

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2012 (all had to redshirt at some point to still be here):

TE Jeremy Sprinkle
WR Keon Hatcher

DE Deatrich Wise, JaMichael Winston
DT Taiwan Johnson
CB Jared Collins
K Adam McFain

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2013:

QB Austin Allen (RS)
OT Dan Skipper
WR Drew Morgan
TE Anthony Antwine (RS)

DE Tevin Beanum (RS), Karl Roesler (RS)
LB Brooks Ellis
CB D.J. Dean
S De'Andre Coley (RS)

Here are this year's regulars who were signed in 2014:

OT Brian Wallace (RS), Jake Hall (RS)
C Frank Ragnow
TE Jack Kraus (RS)
WR Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister

DT Bijhon Jackson
LB Randy Ramsey (RS)
CB Henre' Toliver
S Santos Ramirez (RS), Josh Liddell

From the 2013-14 classes, we're playing 10 players who never redshirted. How many of them were that kind of talent, who didn't need to redshirt? Few. We had a two-season coaching transition. Recruiting for 2013 was seriously impaired, of course. But the 2010-12 classes also were stripped down - combination of high miss rates and typical post-coaching-change attrition.

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

That was a three-year run of disappointment that indisputably caused later problems. Bret Bielema had to play more freshmen in 2013-14 because of the failures of 2010-12. I don't know how many times I've seen people come on here and try to claim that Bobby Petrino's recruiting was adequate, solely because some of his recruits were good. Too many of them were not. Far too many. And that simple fact hampered the ability of Bielema to institute a redshirt-and-develop program at Arkansas.

This season has been weird. It could end up being a weird path to 8-4, which is where many of us expected to be. The volatility of results has had Razorback fans focusing on the wrong things. We all want to know why the defense has been so bad at times. Well, start with the above.

It has been a struggle for Arkansas to navigate the way back after things went so wrong. Part of the "so wrong" is right there above. Forty-seven misses in a three-year span, BEFORE Bielema's first recruiting class. The poor quality of past recruiting complicated the ability of the new coach to develop young recruits.

Only relatively recently has Bielema's program been able to settle into a redshirt-and-develop process. If we do not see improvement in the next few seasons, then maybe we should question the direction of the program.

Some people have this fantasy about how quickly Arkansas could be turned around by a different coach. They say, just go out and throw money at a top name.

I know three things for certain.

1. The coaching brotherhood largely regards Arkansas as a high-risk job. Fans/boosters have high expectations (they believe we should have been satisfied with Nutt, and they also believe we think any Razorback coach should be the next Petrino - and they don't respect us for hiring Petrino either). The job, in their view, has serious recruiting constraints. The state does not produce much talent. Some neighboring states are poor territories too. Others are intensely competitive.

2. Hiring football coaches would be hard for any Arkansas AD. He would take heat for bringing in an up-and-comer, because fan/booster expectations are stupidly high. Look at our last two hires. One was an untouchable. The other was a high-major coach who fell in our laps.

3. If you run off Bielema too soon, the job of hiring a football coach at Arkansas will get infinitely more difficult.

And that is where we are. Stop creating "fire the coach" threads, because they are wildly irrational.

I can't agree more with this post more than any other posts made, even my own.  You're right on point with #3, all of these fire CBB posts are getting pitiful.  If the UofA done so now, we'd stink so bad in the Coaching brotherhood we'd never get a big name Coach here, and like it or not, Coach Bielema is a Big time and big name Coach, he wouldn't last a week on the open job market. 

Fact: CBP did not recruit his final year here, lost recruiting year.  Fact: CJS I think might have tried to recruit but how could you ever know what that dude was thinking so another lost year of recruiting.  Fact: CBB was hired late into his year and not given much time to get a staff together to do much recruiting even though he said he'd honor those who had already committed, this was to the regime of CJS, :-( and CBB even got his foot in the door late and stole a couple of midnight recruits before signing day, Collins and Hunter is the best I can think of off the top of my head.  But basically as stated above, we had 3 interrupted years of recruiting.

[Pork Twain]

I don't disagree, but at least 46 out of 75 players that were "good enough" to warrant a scholarship never played? That's tough....for any program.

It is exponentially tougher for a program that requires a low-miss rate and player development in order to get on level playing ground with their opponents.  I have beaten this whores to death over the years (giving the horse a break).

[Biggus Piggus]

I don't disagree, but at least 46 out of 75 players that were "good enough" to warrant a scholarship never played? That's tough....for any program.

It wasn't 75 but 72. Yes, 46 of 72, 64% miss rate.

[LZH]

It wasn't 75 but 72. Yes, 46 of 72, 64% miss rate.

24 scholarships a year and not 25? Didn't know that.

Still, I was thinking maybe 1 out of 4 never panned out....not 2 out of 3. Hell, I can't imagine that ever happening anywhere else.....in any era.

Makes me wanna slap Petrino's smug ass even more

[thefisher]

I don't disagree, but at least 46 out of 75 players that were "good enough" to warrant a scholarship never played? That's tough....for any program.

When put into those concise bottom line numbers it is mind boggling.  When you don't have the luxury of having a slate of 4*-5* recruits sign up each year the "hit" rate on who you evaluate has to be markedly better than the opponents. For several years it is clear that is was markedly worse.

Wow.

[LZH]

It is exponentially tougher for a program that requires a low-miss rate and player development in order to get on level playing ground with their opponents.  I have beaten this whores to death over the years (giving the horse a break).

The horse thanks you.....

[Biggus Piggus]

Huh.  So, it's Petrino's recruiting that is to blame for giving up nearly 1,000 yards rushing in 2 out of last 3 games.  Gotcha! 

No attempt made here to pretend that the current head coach has executed without flaws. It does not help the current team that the 2012-13 recruiting classes provided no rush end, one defensive tackle, one linebacker, and one safety to this lineup.

Does not help this team that many players were rushed into the lineup in 2013-14 because of the many recruiting failures of 2010-12.

Bielema and staff knew what they had, but they might not have know what they were going to need. Not right away. And nobody until Bielema ever coached an Arkansas team that had no pushover opponents in the first seven conference games on the schedule. Things were lined up against this team, this season.

[Biggus Piggus]

24 scholarships a year and not 25? Didn't know that.

Still, I was thinking maybe 1 out of 4 never panned out....not 2 out of 3. Hell, I can't imagine that ever happening anywhere else.....in any era.

Makes me wanna slap Petrino's smug ass even more

No, you can't sign 25 if you don't have enough open scholarships. They didn't get 25 every one of those years.

Nutt had a stretch, 2000-04, when his hit rate was about 45%.

[LZH]

No, you can't sign 25 if you don't have enough open scholarships. They didn't get 25 every one of those years.

Nutt had a stretch, 2000-04, when his hit rate was about 45%.

Yeah I wasn't thinking about the lack of available schollies.

Damn, I didn't know that hit/miss rates could be so close. Never really paid any attention to be honest.

[Pork Twain]

It wasn't 75 but 72. Yes, 46 of 72, 64% miss rate.

I actually think that if you went back and looked, we signed more than 25 a year over that period.

31 in 2009
http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2009-Football/Commits
21 in 2010
http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2010-Football/Commits
27 in 2011
http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2011-Football/Commits
25 in 2012
http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2012-Football/Commits

I looked it up and I was wrong.  Make that 73

2009-2012 killed us this year.  2009 was one of the worst classes and cannot be ignored for the problems it caused in 2014-2015.  That class forced players to play when they should have been redshirted.

[lstewart]

I pretty much agree, other than I don't think hitting the maximum limit of the best we can recruit and redshirt is going to make a big difference in our average win total.

With the schedule we play these days, 8-4 is generally going to be about what we can expect in a solid year, although we should be much more competitive in those loses.

I agree changing coaches in not the way to go, and I don't really think anyone else is going to do much better than what we are doing. Just too tough of a division with too many issues for us to overcome to move past a middle of the pack 8 win SEC team.

[Hawgar The Horrible]

No attempt made here to pretend that the current head coach has executed without flaws. It does not help the current team that the 2012-13 recruiting classes provided no rush end, one defensive tackle, one linebacker, and one safety to this lineup.

Does not help this team that many players were rushed into the lineup in 2013-14 because of the many recruiting failures of 2010-12.

Bielema and staff knew what they had, but they might not have know what they were going to need. Not right away. And nobody until Bielema ever coached an Arkansas team that had no pushover opponents in the first seven conference games on the schedule. Things were lined up against this team, this season.

Timely point being made there.

Bielema recently stated rushing players into the lineup can set their development back by as much as a year.

[LZH]

I say on here every year that I am going to get into recruiting more. Obviously I never do.

[Pork Twain]

I say on here every year that I am going to get into recruiting more. Obviously I never do.

If you do, avoid 2009-2011.  It is too depressing.

[JRHoward]

Thank You to Biggus for some perspective....Woo Pig!

[go hogues]

This is the season hardest hit by the springtime firing of Bobby Petrino, an entire season in limbo, and a recruiting class impaired by the late-year hiring of a new head coach. The number of players redshirted and developed in 2012-13 was paltry. This team should have more fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors. Many more. This is the worst of that impact. Those problems should begin to ease next season.

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2012 (all had to redshirt at some point to still be here):

TE Jeremy Sprinkle
WR Keon Hatcher

DE Deatrich Wise, JaMichael Winston
DT Taiwan Johnson
CB Jared Collins
K Adam McFain

Here are the 2016 regulars who were signed in 2013:

QB Austin Allen (RS)
OT Dan Skipper
WR Drew Morgan
TE Anthony Antwine (RS)

DE Tevin Beanum (RS), Karl Roesler (RS)
LB Brooks Ellis
CB D.J. Dean
S De'Andre Coley (RS)

Here are this year's regulars who were signed in 2014:

OT Brian Wallace (RS), Jake Hall (RS)
C Frank Ragnow
TE Jack Kraus (RS)
WR Jared Cornelius, Cody Hollister

DT Bijhon Jackson
LB Randy Ramsey (RS)
CB Henre' Toliver
S Santos Ramirez (RS), Josh Liddell

From the 2013-14 classes, we're playing 10 players who never redshirted. How many of them were that kind of talent, who didn't need to redshirt? Few. We had a two-season coaching transition. Recruiting for 2013 was seriously impaired, of course. But the 2010-12 classes also were stripped down - combination of high miss rates and typical post-coaching-change attrition.

Fourteen 2010 signees crapped out. The 2011 class had 18 misses, and that does not count several more who stayed but never played. The 2012 class had a combination of 14 washouts and early exits. Only eight scholarship recruits from that class panned out.

That was a three-year run of disappointment that indisputably caused later problems. Bret Bielema had to play more freshmen in 2013-14 because of the failures of 2010-12. I don't know how many times I've seen people come on here and try to claim that Bobby Petrino's recruiting was adequate, solely because some of his recruits were good. Too many of them were not. Far too many. And that simple fact hampered the ability of Bielema to institute a redshirt-and-develop program at Arkansas.

This season has been weird. It could end up being a weird path to 8-4, which is where many of us expected to be. The volatility of results has had Razorback fans focusing on the wrong things. We all want to know why the defense has been so bad at times. Well, start with the above.

It has been a struggle for Arkansas to navigate the way back after things went so wrong. Part of the "so wrong" is right there above. Forty-seven misses in a three-year span, BEFORE Bielema's first recruiting class. The poor quality of past recruiting complicated the ability of the new coach to develop young recruits.

Only relatively recently has Bielema's program been able to settle into a redshirt-and-develop process. If we do not see improvement in the next few seasons, then maybe we should question the direction of the program.

Some people have this fantasy about how quickly Arkansas could be turned around by a different coach. They say, just go out and throw money at a top name.

I know three things for certain.

1. The coaching brotherhood largely regards Arkansas as a high-risk job. Fans/boosters have high expectations (they believe we should have been satisfied with Nutt, and they also believe we think any Razorback coach should be the next Petrino - and they don't respect us for hiring Petrino either). The job, in their view, has serious recruiting constraints. The state does not produce much talent. Some neighboring states are poor territories too. Others are intensely competitive.

2. Hiring football coaches would be hard for any Arkansas AD. He would take heat for bringing in an up-and-comer, because fan/booster expectations are stupidly high. Look at our last two hires. One was an untouchable. The other was a high-major coach who fell in our laps.

3. If you run off Bielema too soon, the job of hiring a football coach at Arkansas will get infinitely more difficult.

And that is where we are. Stop creating "fire the coach" threads, because they are wildly irrational.

Good stuff. Anyone wanting to fire CBB at this point is irrational.

I will say that our miss rate will always be higher than average because we are forced to take risks on a lot of 2 and low 3 star recruits.

[Polecat]

Not trying to be contrarian. But I would be interested to see the number of "misses" in recruiting by our league foes and how that compares our poor numbers from recruiting classes in those years