Hogs 9 point dogs on Yahoo Sports

[tannerstahl]

Forgive my ignorance here and I'll probably get blasted but I have a question about "covering the spread". I'm not a gambler in any way, I've never even bought a scratch off lottery ticket so you can understand my ignorance.

Say last week I placed a bet for Arkansas to cover the 7.5 pt spread...I understand that I'm picking them to lose by less than 7.5, but since they won outright, did I lose the bet by not picking them to win the game?

Thanks ahead of time for the clarification!


**disclaimer I DID NOT MAKE ANY BET OR WAGER FOR OR AGAINST THE HOGS lol
being an ordained reverend currently serving a wonderful church in Georgia, I choose to abstain from this form of entertainment!

[PonderinHog]

Forgive my ignorance here and I'll probably get blasted but I have a question about "covering the spread". I'm not a gambler in any way, I've never even bought a scratch off lottery ticket so you can understand my ignorance.

Say last week I placed a bet for Arkansas to cover the 7.5 pt spread...I understand that I'm picking them to lose by less than 7.5, but since they won outright, did I lose the bet by not picking them to win the game?

Thanks ahead of time for the clarification!


**disclaimer I DID NOT MAKE ANY BET OR WAGER FOR OR AGAINST THE HOGS lol
being an ordained reverend currently serving a wonderful church in Georgia, I choose to abstain from this form of entertainment!

You won!   Next time, bet the house!

[ricepig]

You won!   Next time, bet the house!

Rev could pass the kollection plate if he was around, but, alas........

[hogfanmd]

We play better when we are predicted to lose anyway.   Better motivation. 

Never bet on or against the hogs.   Emotion gets in the way

Take Bama and the 17 points or ole miss at LSu.   

[Razorbackers]

Why the love for AU?  Is their O good?  I know their D is supposed to be solid.

Their defense is definitely solid, I'd say. But not as strong as some would lead you to believe.

11th in the nation in scoring defense(4th in SEC)
52nd in rush defense (6th in SEC)
30th in Pass defense (3rd in SEC)
30th total defense (5th in SEC)
59th in sacks (6th in SEC)
80th in tackles for loss (8th in SEC)
101st in interceptions (14th in SEC)
73rd in turnover margin. (11th in SEC)

Lots of respect given to Auburn at home, as it should be. One of the toughest places to play in the US. I'd take the under on this line for sure.

For funsies, lets look at Arkansas' numbers in the SEC post-Ole Miss. We have a definite advantage over their defense with Allen's arm.

4th in scoring
9th in rushing (RW3 leads the SEC in rushing yards, though.)
3rd in passing
6th in total offense

Auburn's offense, however, has been somewhat underrated, at least when it comes to rushing. Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway both have over 500 rushing yards this season, but their passing game just isn't great. I really like our matchup with their offense, as long as we don't let a QB scramble get away from us.

6th in scoring
3rd in rushing
8th in passing
4th in total offense

I think this will be a hard fought game, and will be close. I understand giving the edge to Auburn at home, but the Hogs have the exact weapons that could break through that Auburn defense imo.

[onebadrubi]

7.5 and 8 are starting to populate at different places.

Any of those places accepting bets yet?

[Razor6]

I see hogs winning by 2 scores... Whether 8 or 15.  Hogs won't have to take a knee with 90 seconds remaining.

We got this fellas!

[bolo1010]

Ima make a bold prediction and say our coaching plan will be to sell out on stopping the run and make the qb beat us with his arm.  Our corners can hold their own.  Hopefully RS will have a good scheme for this Saturday.  Thought we did a fairly good job of this against on Ole Miss.  dial up a few of those blitzes and we might can knock their offense off balance. I have no worries that we can put up the points on them.  Still, playing on the road anywhere in the west isn't easy.  Need some quick scores to take the crowd out

[songofthesword]

i posted this elsewhere


Arkansas last 5 games against ranked teams

Ole Miss - 34-30 win
Alabama - 49-30 Loss
Texas A and M - 45-24 Loss
TCU - 41-38 win
LSU Tigers - 31 - 14 Win


3-2

Auburn last 5 gamed against ranked teams


LSU - 18-13 win
Aggies - 29-16 loss
clemson - 19-13 loss
alabama - 29-13 loss
aggies - 26-10 loss

1-4


Arkansas scoring offense verses ranked teams (including bama): 34.9


Auburn scoring offense versus ranked teams (not including bama): 32.3



Arkansas rushing verses ranked teams (including bama): 131 pg

Auburn rushing versus ranked teams (not including bama): 161 pg



Arkansas passing versus ranked teams (including bama) 333 ypg (first in conference by the way)


Auburn passing against ranked teams (not including bama) 190   



Arkansas turnover margin against ranked teams (including bama) - 3


Auburn turnover margin against ranked teams (not including bama) - 2



Arkansas 3rd down conversion against ranked teams (including bama): 45%


Auburn 3rd down conversion against ranked teams (not including bama) : 32%



Arkansas sacks per game versus ranked teams (including bama: 1 per game


Auburn sacks per game versus ranked teams (not including bama): 1.67 per game



Arkansas long plays per game against ranked teams (including bama):

10+ yards: 53
20+ yards 22
30+ yards: 9
40+ yards: 5
50+ yards: 4


Auburn long plays from scrimmage against ranked teams (not including bama):


10+ yards: 42
20+ yards: 9
30+ yards: 4
40+ yards:1



Arkansas rush defense against ranked teams (including bama): 260 ypg


Auburn rush defense against ranked teams (not including bama): 200 ypg



Auburn pass defense against ranked teams (not including bama and including lsu): 204 ypg


Arkansas pass defense against ranked teams (incluyding bama and not including lsu): 243



if we are 9 point dogs and i knew where to to actually bet on anything other than horse racing i'd take out a 2nd mortage on this game

[songofthesword]

not even mentioning that auburn has one ONE home SEC game in the last 2 years

[Rison Razor Hog]

You are drunk, we are going down.

How'd your goof-ball prediction about Us vs. Ole Miss work out? Didn't think so...

[bolo1010]

i posted this elsewhere


Arkansas last 5 games against ranked teams

Ole Miss - 34-30 win
Alabama - 49-30 Loss
Texas A and M - 45-24 Loss
TCU - 41-38 win
LSU Tigers - 31 - 14 Win


3-2

Auburn last 5 gamed against ranked teams


LSU - 18-13 win
Aggies - 29-16 loss
clemson - 19-13 loss
alabama - 29-13 loss
aggies - 26-10 loss

1-4


Arkansas scoring offense verses ranked teams (including bama): 34.9


Auburn scoring offense versus ranked teams (not including bama): 32.3



Arkansas rushing verses ranked teams (including bama): 131 pg

Auburn rushing versus ranked teams (not including bama): 161 pg



Arkansas passing versus ranked teams (including bama) 333 ypg (first in conference by the way)


Auburn passing against ranked teams (not including bama) 190   



Arkansas turnover margin against ranked teams (including bama) - 3


Auburn turnover margin against ranked teams (not including bama) - 2



Arkansas 3rd down conversion against ranked teams (including bama): 45%


Auburn 3rd down conversion against ranked teams (not including bama) : 32%



Arkansas sacks per game versus ranked teams (including bama: 1 per game


Auburn sacks per game versus ranked teams (not including bama): 1.67 per game



Arkansas long plays per game against ranked teams (including bama):

10+ yards: 53
20+ yards 22
30+ yards: 9
40+ yards: 5
50+ yards: 4


Auburn long plays from scrimmage against ranked teams (not including bama):


10+ yards: 42
20+ yards: 9
30+ yards: 4
40+ yards:1



Arkansas rush defense against ranked teams (including bama): 260 ypg


Auburn rush defense against ranked teams (not including bama): 200 ypg



Auburn pass defense against ranked teams (not including bama and including lsu): 204 ypg


Arkansas pass defense against ranked teams (incluyding bama and not including lsu): 243



if we are 9 point dogs and i knew where to to actually bet on anything other than horse racing i'd take out a 2nd mortage on this game

Very informative post.  plus1

[Dwillhog66]

How'd your goof-ball prediction about Us vs. Ole Miss work out? Didn't think so...

He's is a real internet troll, IMO. His posts are to create anger and nothing else, that appears to be his only agenda.
The ignore option can be your friend on hogville, I suggest you (as well as everyone else) add him to your ignore list.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Not that I really "buy" into the RPI rankings that ESPN spits out like pea soup, however, for some time they've held the odds of our beating AWbarn at less than 20%. That's lower than their projections against everyone else, and that includes the Ole Miss retards we just beat this past weekend. In fact, according to this idiotic projection we're a "dog" against EVERYONE left on our remaining schedule. And yes, they also had us losing to OM.

[Redhogs]

Not that I really "buy" into the RPI rankings that ESPN spits out like pea soup, however, for some time they've held the odds of our beating AWbarn at less than 20%. That's lower than their projections against everyone else, and that includes the Ole Miss retards we just beat this past weekend. In fact, according to this idiotic projection we're a "dog" against EVERYONE left on our remaining schedule. And yes, they also had us losing to OM.

I think we can be an unpredictable team....but that's a real head scratcher.

[Hogwild]

Last week we were a 7 point dog to Ole Miss, now Ole Miss is a 4.5 point dog to LSU. crazy

[widespreadsooie]

Down to 6.5

[hogcard1964]

Seriously???  WTH???

Auburn -8 1/2 to -10?



http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

[VirginiaHog]

Lol. Take it and take it fast.

[hogcard1964]

Lol. Take it and take it fast.

No kidding.

[Pistol Pig Maravich]

We have swiss cheese defense....Aub does not!! At their place....

[elksnort]

If our defense plays like they did against Ole Miss, then we will beat Auburn or at least cover.

And no, our defense is still not very good, but they played much better the other night.

[DiamondHogFan]

Is Auburn's offense really good enough to score enough points to beat us by 8-10?

We scored 30 on Bama so I would say we are a lock for 21+ against Auburn.  It will take them 30+pts to cover that line.  Their offense will not do that, even against our (at times) suspect defense.  Ole Miss, a much better offense than Auburn, only scored 30 on us.

That line will drop closer to 5 before Saturday I assume.

[onebadrubi]

Seriously???  WTH???

Auburn -8 1/2 to -10?



http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

There was already a post on this.  And to that point, you can't find a "shop" giving you 9 or 10 points, they aren't accepting that bet, I will guarantee that.  And especially the local bookies around the state are not going to allow their lines to open with Arkansas over 8

[JayBell]

Even with Arkansas' iffy defense, they've proven to be some major road warriors over the last calendar year.  They won at Ole Miss and LSU last year before they knocked off TCU this year.

Seems weird to give Auburn such an edge just because they're at home when they've lost 6 out of their last 11 home games.  The five wins have come against Arkansas State, San Jose State, ULM, Idaho and LSU.

[SquidBilly]

Driving action is all their doing

[onebadrubi]

Even with Arkansas' iffy defense, they've proven to be some major road warriors over the last calendar year.  They won at Ole Miss and LSU last year before they knocked off TCU this year.

Seems weird to give Auburn such an edge just because they're at home when they've lost 6 out of their last 11 home games.  The five wins have come against Arkansas State, San Jose State, ULM, Idaho and LSU.

Add at Tenner last year too.

[Gonzo]

According to Covers.com, a lot of online sites are offering 9 1/2, but the Wynn, the only large Vegas book they list, has it at 8. Interestingly, of the fans who have picked the game on their site so far, the Hogs are an 84% choice against the line, the highest pick they have so far this week.

Also interestingly, A&M is a 16 1/2 to 17 point dog to Bama so far, and 74% of the voters are on the Aggies at this point.



Go Hogs! Beat Auburn!

[JayBell]

Add at Tenner last year too.

Ah, of course.  That's the one that got this run going.  Arkansas has won at Neyland, Amon G. Carter, Vaught Hemingway and Death Valley in the last year, but Auburn gets the edge because they're at Jerdin-Hayer?  That makes no sense.

[a0ashle]

Computer ratings systems really like Auburn and they aren't big fans of the Hogs. It wouldn't surprise me if these played some role in the initial lines.

Looking it over, Auburn will be tough, 9 pts tough though?

[hogcard1964]

WOW.  I just can't imagine auburn blowing us out.

I can't imagine Auburn being favored at all in this game.  I thought for sure Vegas would open up with the Hogs ranging from -5 to -7.  If this line right now is true and not a misprint or type o, I'd lock this in ASAP.

[jbell96]

I'm surprised it's as high as 9, but I think the factors have to be:

Auburn can run the ball - they have more rushing yds than passing yds

Auburn defense seems significantly better than Ole Miss.
______________

Auburn's offensive stats are extremely skewed. They had 700 yards against A-State & 688 against ULM. Against power 5 teams, like A&M, LSU, & Clemson, they struggled to run the ball consistently.

[popcornhog]

Forgive my ignorance here and I'll probably get blasted but I have a question about "covering the spread". I'm not a gambler in any way, I've never even bought a scratch off lottery ticket so you can understand my ignorance.

Say last week I placed a bet for Arkansas to cover the 7.5 pt spread...I understand that I'm picking them to lose by less than 7.5, but since they won outright, did I lose the bet by not picking them to win the game?

Thanks ahead of time for the clarification!


**disclaimer I DID NOT MAKE ANY BET OR WAGER FOR OR AGAINST THE HOGS lol
being an ordained reverend currently serving a wonderful church in Georgia, I choose to abstain from this form of entertainment!

You would've won.

Simply put, as long as Ole Miss failed to win by 8 or more, in your hypothetical, you'd win the bet. You could've placed an entirely different wager for Arkansas to win outright. That wager, which you also would've won, would have paid much better.

Make sense?

[userpick]

The public is all over Arkansas but the sharp money is on Auburn according to one book in Vegas. It won't come down much from 9, if at all.

[Deep Shoat]

The public is all over Arkansas but the sharp money is on Auburn according to one book in Vegas. It won't come down much from 9, if at all.

How did the "sharp money" do ats in the Ole Miss game?

[onebadrubi]

The public is all over Arkansas but the sharp money is on Auburn according to one book in Vegas. It won't come down much from 9, if at all.

I still have not seen a shop give out over 8 points yet?

[userpick]

How did the "sharp money" do ats in the Ole Miss game?

Quite well.

[onebadrubi]

How did the "sharp money" do ats in the Ole Miss game?

You will get a lot of opinions on this, but my guess is they actually did ok.  I think MANY people, being public and sharp played the total of the game.  We also saw the line move mid week down .5 or even a full point which many tend to say was the sharp money. 

We saw a huge line move right before game which for me on a Saturday tells me that was public money pouring in on Ole Miss unless it came out about Kody walker and a starting RB being out and people just jumped on Ole Miss not knowing the situation. 

I don't think you can start to declare sharp money on noon on a monday.  It will be wednesday or Thursday.  This may be a great potential middling game as well for serious bettors, at least it may show the potential to be.

[userpick]

I still have not seen a shop give out over 8 points yet?

Sportsbook.ag has it +9 at the moment.

[IMABIELEMA]

I mean according to hogville it's 3* players against 5* players at home so we don't stand a chance...amirite?

[jgphillips3]

Auburn has a good, but not great defense and an anemic offense.  We have a great offense and a fair to good defense.  I think we can out score them.  In the end, that's a win.  It may not be a pretty win but still a win.  I'm thinking tight...like Arkansas 28 - Auburn 24.  However, I think we can break 30+ on them far easier than they can on us.

[WooPig90]

I still have not seen a shop give out over 8 points yet?

Not sure which ones you used but I have seen at least 4...

[Gonzo]

Forgive my ignorance here and I'll probably get blasted but I have a question about "covering the spread". I'm not a gambler in any way, I've never even bought a scratch off lottery ticket so you can understand my ignorance.

Say last week I placed a bet for Arkansas to cover the 7.5 pt spread...I understand that I'm picking them to lose by less than 7.5, but since they won outright, did I lose the bet by not picking them to win the game?

Thanks ahead of time for the clarification!


**disclaimer I DID NOT MAKE ANY BET OR WAGER FOR OR AGAINST THE HOGS lol
being an ordained reverend currently serving a wonderful church in Georgia, I choose to abstain from this form of entertainment!

You would still win, but betting the underdog to win outright will get you a better payoff than just beating the spread. Likewise, betting the favorite to simply win outright will get you a lower payoff.  Best betting strategy.....ask me where my money is......and bet the other way, hah



Go Hogs! Beat Auburn!

[onebadrubi]

Not sure which ones you used but I have seen at least 4...

Yup, a bunch of +8 all the way to +9.5 out there.  I did not expect it to be released and bets taken that high.

[IMABIELEMA]

Auburn has a good, but not great defense and an anemic offense.  We have a great offense and a fair to good defense.  I think we can out score them.  In the end, that's a win.  It may not be a pretty win but still a win.  I'm thinking tight...like Arkansas 28 - Auburn 24.  However, I think we can break 30+ on them far easier than they can on us.

Actually statistically their defense is elite.  #11 in the NCAA in scoring defense and that's playing A&M & Clemson.  We can still beat them,  just wanted you to know their DL will be the best we face so far.  They have 6 5*'s in their 2 deep on their DL.

[onebadrubi]

Actually statistically their defense is elite.  #11 in the NCAA in scoring defense and that's playing A&M & Clemson.  We can still beat them,  just wanted you to know their DL will be the best we face so far.  They have 6 5*'s in their 2 deep on their DL.

Thier D line will be third best we have faced thus far.  And Kevin steele had that kind of "star power" roaming the D last year as LSU and that didn't do him any good against us either.

[userpick]

Auburn is a much improved team and coming off a bye week. Arkansas is in the 3rd week of a brutally hard mid-season schedule without a break. Not saying we can't beat them, but Auburn isn't 9.5 point favorites for no reason.

[IMABIELEMA]

Thier D line will be third best we have faced thus far.  And Kevin steele had that kind of "star power" roaming the D last year as LSU and that didn't do him any good against us either.

Agree to disagree then.  They have two first rounders in this years draft and others that will be drafted in future drafts.  It's going to be tough regardless considering how bad our OL has played this season.

[hoglady]

Bo had a guy on today.
He said this spread has nothing to do with Wins and Losses -  all based on analytics.
That when you get into the numbers it's not a good match up for our defense - mainly our run defense.
That's where this spread is coming from.

[userpick]

Bo had a guy on today.
He said this spread has nothing to do with Wins and Losses -  all based on analytics.
That when you get into the numbers it's not a good match up for our defense - mainly our run defense.
That's where this spread is coming from.

Exactly. The people who make the line know a whole lot more about the teams than we do.