This Big 12 Writer doesn't think that the SEC member distributions,...

[Murr]

Another thing that may happen soon. Is the removal of Baylor. The issue with doing this is that the media contract with the Big 12 is for 10 members, So the Big 12 will have to replace them quickly. Look for the Big 12 to expand with either Colorado state, Houston, or New Mexico. The kicker with this is that the Big 12 could pay the chosen program a reduced share for the remainder of the current contract.  Then the Big 12 could either split the remainder of that share or use it to build a network much like what the ACC did.

The Big 12 will not kick Baylor out, they are withholding a portion on their money until the school complies with new standards.

The Big 12 board of directors announced Wednesday it will withhold 25% of Baylor's revenue from the conference pending the results of an independent review into structural changes as a result of the sexual assault scandal that has engulfed the university for the last year and a half.

The money will be placed into escrow and eventually returned to Baylor, pending the results of the review.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/97639228/

The Big 12 just spent last summer evaluating 25+ G5 candidates only to conclude none of them add enough value to break even.  None.  Only way Baylor is severely punished is if the NCAA gives them the death penalty.  We'll see how strong and strict this governing body is when they rule against UNC and Ole Miss.  Penn State paid a huge fine and went on probation for the sexual assault scandal.  The Baylor one could have a more severe penalty as football and school officials allegedly prevented title 9 investigations and standard law enforcement reviews of the said instances to protect their players as opposed to an assistant coach and some boosters.

Besides, if the B12 wanted Baylor gone, just let them get dragged through the coals until it is time to renegotiate the TV contracts in 5 years or so.  By then conference members and or TV broadcasters could request the removal of or severely devalue the inventory if ratings steady decline.  That would be the ideal time to reshuffle as the GRant of Rights ends and schools can openly seek new alignments without risk of being at fault for ruining a billion dollar contract.  Imagine if the ten member Big 12 voted to kick out Baylor and then Fox and ESPN said they will no longer honor this contract as its membership numbers breached the minimum requirement?  Everyone who voted for that might get sued for lost future earnings.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The Big 12 will not kick Baylor out, they are withholding a portion on their money until the school complies with new standards.

The Big 12 board of directors announced Wednesday it will withhold 25% of Baylor's revenue from the conference pending the results of an independent review into structural changes as a result of the sexual assault scandal that has engulfed the university for the last year and a half.

The money will be placed into escrow and eventually returned to Baylor, pending the results of the review.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/97639228/

The Big 12 just spent last summer evaluating 25+ G5 candidates only to conclude none of them add enough value to break even.  None.  Only way Baylor is severely punished is if the NCAA gives them the death penalty.  We'll see how strong and strict this governing body is when they rule against UNC and Ole Miss.  Penn State paid a huge fine and went on probation for the sexual assault scandal.  The Baylor one could have a more severe penalty as football and school officials allegedly prevented title 9 investigations and standard law enforcement reviews of the said instances to protect their players as opposed to an assistant coach and some boosters.

Besides, if the B12 wanted Baylor gone, just let them get dragged through the coals until it is time to renegotiate the TV contracts in 5 years or so.  By then conference members and or TV broadcasters could request the removal of or severely devalue the inventory if ratings steady decline.  That would be the ideal time to reshuffle as the GRant of Rights ends and schools can openly seek new alignments without risk of being at fault for ruining a billion dollar contract.  Imagine if the ten member Big 12 voted to kick out Baylor and then Fox and ESPN said they will no longer honor this contract as its membership numbers breached the minimum requirement?  Everyone who voted for that might get sued for lost future earnings.

I agree. The position that the Big 12 is in right now? They wouldn't even consider banishing Baylor from the B12.

As for the bolded part above, I don't see how that is even possible. They are going to have to add two schools as a minimum so they better take the best two that are most regionally specific to the Big 12 and get crackin.

[redleg]

Eventually, the Big XII will dissolve. West Virginia will probably be the first casualty. That's a long way to send your athletes to play a game, regardless of the sport. WVU will most likely end up in the ACC with their arch-rival Pitt. I do not see OU continuing to ride the coattails of Texas, which is exactly what they have been doing regardless what any Sooner will tell you. In my opinion, I think Texas created the Longhorn Network for two reasons, 1. They are selfish and arrogant, and 2. They are looking further down the road than the rest of the Big XII members, and see themselves as an independent school eventually, much like Notre Dame.
When the Big XII does collapse, look for OU and Ok St to join the SEC, WVU to the ACC, Texas Tech to the Pac-12, and one or two members to the Big Ten (Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St?). The rest may end up in the C-USA, or will get together with some of the C-USA members to create a new conference (maybe revive the old SWC?). Who knows what will happen! But no one will be willing to put up with the Longhorns bulls***, so they will take their Network and be an independent. But look for the Horns to keep OU on the schedule, along with one or two other Texas-based schools, and they might even try to get A&M back on their schedule too.
Whatever happens, the SEC will eventually expand to 16 teams.
:razorback:

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Eventually, the Big XII will dissolve. West Virginia will probably be the first casualty. That's a long way to send your athletes to play a game, regardless of the sport. WVU will most likely end up in the ACC with their arch-rival Pitt. I do not see OU continuing to ride the coattails of Texas, which is exactly what they have been doing regardless what any Sooner will tell you. In my opinion, I think Texas created the Longhorn Network for two reasons, 1. They are selfish and arrogant, and 2. They are looking further down the road than the rest of the Big XII members, and see themselves as an independent school eventually, much like Notre Dame.
When the Big XII does collapse, look for OU and Ok St to join the SEC, WVU to the ACC, Texas Tech to the Pac-12, and one or two members to the Big Ten (Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St?). The rest may end up in the C-USA, or will get together with some of the C-USA members to create a new conference (maybe revive the old SWC?). Who knows what will happen! But no one will be willing to put up with the Longhorns bulls***, so they will take their Network and be an independent. But look for the Horns to keep OU on the schedule, along with one or two other Texas-based schools, and they might even try to get A&M back on their schedule too.
Whatever happens, the SEC will eventually expand to 16 teams.
:razorback:

I used to believe that the Big 12 would eventually go away but I am not so sure anymore. Oklahoma gives up a lot of influence in the way that conference is ran and coming to the SEC, they wouldn't have that level of influence any longer. Additionally, the departure of Texas and Oklahoma leaves a lot of schools to fend for themselves and they wouldn't do nearly as well from a financial standpoint which would damage them as institutions. Lawsuits galore might ensue as a result.

The best thing for the Big 12 as well as Oklahoma and Texas, is if they pick up a couple of schools, get back to 12 now (before a T.V. package is renegotiated), get a legit CCG going again between 2 divisions and between the other members and ESPN, pressure Texas to let go of the LHN early and then form a "Big 12 Network" from which everyone benefits and which would lend stability to the conference. JMO

[GuvHog]

I used to believe that the Big 12 would eventually go away but I am not so sure anymore. Oklahoma gives up a lot of influence in the way that conference is ran and coming to the SEC, they wouldn't have that level of influence any longer. Additionally, the departure of Texas and Oklahoma leaves a lot of schools to fend for themselves and they wouldn't do nearly as well from a financial standpoint which would damage them as institutions. Lawsuits galore might ensue as a result.

The best thing for the Big 12 as well as Oklahoma and Texas, is if they pick up a couple of schools, get back to 12 now (before a T.V. package is renegotiated), get a legit CCG going again between 2 divisions and between the other members and ESPN, pressure Texas to let go of the LHN early and then form a "Big 12 Network" from which everyone benefits and which would lend stability to the conference. JMO

The Longhorns insistence on keeping the Longhorn Network is what will destroy the Big 12 in my opinion and as long as they are making 15 million a year on it, they aren't going to give it up. That is preventing the formation of a Big 12 Network and the other schools, including OU, don't like it. They also won't expand unless they can find two schools which will help the conference do a lot more than just break even financially and none of the schools that are considered expansion possibilities by the Big 12 meet that criteria as was mentioned above.

By the way, Texas is the Big Dog in the Big 12 so I seriously doubt any pressure tactics would bother them. They would probably tell the rest of the Big 12 to go jump in the lake and go independent rather than give up their LHN.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The Longhorns insistence on keeping the Longhorn Network is what will destroy the Big 12 in my opinion. That is preventing the formation of a Big 12 Network and the other schools, including OU, don't like it. They also won't expand unless they can find two schools which will help the conference do a lot more than just break even financially and none of the schools that are considered expansion possibilities by the Big 12 meet that criteria as was mentioned above.

As I said above, I find it difficult to believe that out of 25 potential candidates in G-5 that they aren't 2 schools that they could add that would help the Big 12. UCF? Colorado State? Houston? BYU? They are going to have to do it or probably see a lesser t.v. agreement on the next negotiation. Additionally, having a round robin of 10 schools and just putting the two with the best records in a CCG probably isn't going to improve their standing with the CFP Committee as they hope it will. If they want to be seriously considered, they need to get back to 12 teams and two divisions and a legit CCG.

[GuvHog]

As I said above, I find it difficult to believe that out of 25 potential candidates in G-5 that they aren't 2 schools that they could add that would help the Big 12. UCF? Colorado State? Houston? BYU? They are going to have to do it or probably see a lesser t.v. agreement on the next negotiation. Additionally, having a round robin of 10 schools and just putting the two with the best records in a CCG probably isn't going to improve their standing with the CFP Committee as they hope it will. If they want to be seriously considered, they need to get back to 12 teams and two divisions and a legit CCG.

I really don't find it that difficult to believe. They were a 12 team conference until Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri got fed up with the uneven distribution of money and the conference being basically controlled by The University of Texas. Yes, the Big 12 made 313 Million last year but OU and Texas got more of that money than did the other Big 12 schools and therein lies the problem. The other schools just don't like it that the Big 12 is padding OU's and the Longhorns bank accounts just to pacify them and keep them in the conference at the expense of the other schools.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I really don't find it that difficult to believe. They were a 12 team conference until Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri got fed up with the uneven distribution of money and the conference being basically controlled by The University of Texas. Yes, the Big 12 made 313 Million last year but OU and Texas got more of that money than did the other Big 12 schools and therein lies the problem. The other schools just don't like it that the Big 12 is padding OU's and the Longhorns bank accounts just to pacify them and keep them in the conference at the expense of the other schools.

That's not all of it Guv. Go back and read the pertinent parts of the thread. We all know they used to be 12 team conference and now they are a 10 team conference. That's why they need to add two and get back to 12 if they hope to survive and I can assure you, 8 of those 10 definitely want to see that happen, unequal revenue sharing or not.

[Murr]

I used to believe that the Big 12 would eventually go away but I am not so sure anymore. Oklahoma gives up a lot of influence in the way that conference is ran and coming to the SEC, they wouldn't have that level of influence any longer. Additionally, the departure of Texas and Oklahoma leaves a lot of schools to fend for themselves and they wouldn't do nearly as well from a financial standpoint which would damage them as institutions. Lawsuits galore might ensue as a result.

The next round of realignment will be about improving the value of the contracts up for bidding; the teir one contracts.  Content over adding new markets. 

Oklahoma and Texas will be the key players with only Oklahoma likely to leave the B12.  B1G and SEC will. E bidding on their services with the SEC most likely to accept Oklahoma State to also land OU.  OU would add more quality content to the SEC,s teir one and two contracts to maximize revenue.  OSU wouldn't add any new markets or academics,but they are a solid addition, just not an ace jewel. 

Texas has a Tech/ political problem. They won't be able to leave a melting Big 12 with several Texas state schools.  Texas tried to avoid the political restraints by quietly sneaking off to form the PAC 16 with Tech, Colorado, OU, OSU and A&M.  A&M tapped the breaks and said they needed to do their own due diligence and not just let UT-Austin "take care" of them.  That one week delay killed the PAC 16 merger, sent Colorado to the PAC, expedited Nebraska to the B1G, and royally pissed off every Big 12 member.

Unless Texas can sneak out of the Big 12, they'll probably stay and rebuild it after another round of deflections . 

One rumor I keep seeing is the B1G trying to land OU and KU. If they land OU then adding KU is geographically and more economically feasible.  If all the B1G has is KU, their irrelevant football program might sink any chances of paying for a move even with their extremely valuable basketball program.

[GuvHog]

The next round of realignment will be about improving the value of the contracts up for bidding; the teir one contracts.  Content over adding new markets. 

Oklahoma and Texas will be the key players with only Oklahoma likely to leave the B12.  B1G and SEC will. E bidding on their services with the SEC most likely to accept Oklahoma State to also land OU.  OU would add more quality content to the SEC,s teir one and two contracts to maximize revenue.  OSU wouldn't add any new markets or academics,but they are a solid addition, just not an ace jewel. 

Texas has a Tech/ political problem. They won't be able to leave a melting Big 12 with several Texas state schools.  Texas tried to avoid the political restraints by quietly sneaking off to form the PAC 16 with Tech, Colorado, OU, OSU and A&M.  A&M tapped the breaks and said they needed to do their own due diligence and not just let UT-Austin "take care" of them.  That one week delay killed the PAC 16 merger, sent Colorado to the PAC, expedited Nebraska to the B1G, and royally pissed off every Big 12 member.

Unless Texas can sneak out of the Big 12, they'll probably stay and rebuild it after another round of deflections . 

One rumor I keep seeing is the B1G trying to land OU and KU. If they land OU then adding KU is geographically and more economically feasible.  If all the B1G has is KU, their irrelevant football program might sink any chances of paying for a move even with their extremely valuable basketball program.

Texas will stay in the Big 12 as long as they can control the conference, keep the LHN, and keep the current method of unevenly distributing conference money in place. If the rest of the conference members unite and try to pressure the Longhorns into giving up any one of those things, the Horns will leave the Big 12 pretty quick. Eventually either Texas will leave the conference or the conference will collapse as some members look to go elsewhere to get away from Longhorn control as Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, and Texas A&M have all done. I still believe OU and Okla State end up as part of the SEC West.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The next round of realignment will be about improving the value of the contracts up for bidding; the teir one contracts.  Content over adding new markets. 

Oklahoma and Texas will be the key players with only Oklahoma likely to leave the B12.  B1G and SEC will. E bidding on their services with the SEC most likely to accept Oklahoma State to also land OU.  OU would add more quality content to the SEC,s teir one and two contracts to maximize revenue.  OSU wouldn't add any new markets or academics,but they are a solid addition, just not an ace jewel. 

Texas has a Tech/ political problem. They won't be able to leave a melting Big 12 with several Texas state schools.  Texas tried to avoid the political restraints by quietly sneaking off to form the PAC 16 with Tech, Colorado, OU, OSU and A&M.  A&M tapped the breaks and said they needed to do their own due diligence and not just let UT-Austin "take care" of them.  That one week delay killed the PAC 16 merger, sent Colorado to the PAC, expedited Nebraska to the B1G, and royally pissed off every Big 12 member.

Unless Texas can sneak out of the Big 12, they'll probably stay and rebuild it after another round of deflections . 

One rumor I keep seeing is the B1G trying to land OU and KU. If they land OU then adding KU is geographically and more economically feasible.  If all the B1G has is KU, their irrelevant football program might sink any chances of paying for a move even with their extremely valuable basketball program.

I thought this was interesting (from page 1) and is rarely discussed. They have certainly gotten themselves in a bind and it is their own fault.

Interestingly enough, in this article it talks about how the Big Eight wanted to add the entire SWC making it the Big 16 instead of the Big 12, but Texas nixed that idea. Think about that for a moment, if not for Texas the old Big Eight would have become the first 16 team super conference that was able to negotiate a more powerful t.v. package and how might that have affected the overall stability of that conference not to mention what it might have done for schools like TCU, Rice, Houston and SMU?

Then there was the arrival of the LHN. Just too much Texas influence.

http://www.cornnation.com/2016/5/25/11773190/nebraska-huskers-football-big-eight-12-conference-jon-wefald-book-kansas-state

And the funny thing is that back in 2007 the then Commissioner of the Big 12 tried to convince the 12 conference members to form a Big 12 Network, but greed and poor judgement, along with poor foresight by the major members of the conference, turned down the notion, thinking they could do better on their own. Shortly thereafter, the LHN was launched.

[Dominicanhog]

On another note with regard to potential SEC expansion, Auburn is making it their mission to trade with Missouri and get moved to the SEC East. That would probably have happened anyway if the SEC were going to add anyone from the Big 12 to the West. But what does the SEC do if they add 2 teams from the Big 12? Who else goes East? Alabama?

I don't see the SEC taking any 2  B12 teams... they'll get one from the east

[GuvHog]

I don't see the SEC taking any 2  B12 teams... they'll get one from the east

It's very unlikely that the SEC will add a team from the East because it's far more difficult (expensive) for a school to leave the ACC than it is for a team to leave the Big 12.

[Murr]

That may have been some of it but I think more of it had to do with varying reasons. Not having more of a voice in the direction of the conference probably had quite a lot to do with it because before these schools defected, the conference had stability.

For Colorado, they had been seeing themselves as a better fit with the Pac 10/Pac 12 for a long, long time. They felt that their profile as a school fit the west coast schools more than that of the Big Eight/Big 12.

For Nebraska, it seemed like getting away from Texas and landing in a more prestigious conference where they would have a place at the table, was their primary consideration.

Interestingly enough, in this article it talks about how the Big Eight wanted to add the entire SWC making it the Big 16 instead of the Big 12, but Texas nixed that idea. Think about that for a moment, if not for Texas the old Big Eight would have become the first 16 team super conference that was able to negotiate a more powerful t.v. package and how might that have affected the overall stability of that conference not to mention what it might have done for schools like TCU, Rice, Houston and SMU?

Then there was the arrival of the LHN. Just too much Texas influence.

http://www.cornnation.com/2016/5/25/11773190/nebraska-huskers-football-big-eight-12-conference-jon-wefald-book-kansas-state

Missouri's defection from the Big 12 was all about stability for the long run given that the Big 12 had already lost Nebraska and Colorado and would soon lose A&M as well.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/missouri-leaving-big-12-for-sec-110611

For A&M it appeared to be more of the same. The defection of other Big 12 member schools (largely because of Texas) and then Texas starting their own LHN in partnership with ESPN and IMG, which did nothing for the rest of the conference.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6912807/texas-aggies-tell-big-12-seek-new-conference

So a lot of it was because of Texas but it was also about being somewhere that they had a voice in their conference and where there was long term stability.

The SWC had even more dead weight before it died than the current Big 12 does today.

People forget the math involved in the Big 12 contract; the networks decided to keep paying the Big 12 their current contract despite losing the values of Nebraska and Colorado.  Then when A&M and Mizzou bolted, those same Networks still kept the same payments except added TCU and WVU.  The original 12 team B12 is splitting a contract ten ways vs 12.  If the contract was redone today, would they still be in the same ball park as the other P5 schools?

[Murr]

I disagree. I believe Texas and Oklahoma will soon part ways. Texas can't go to any other conference because they aren't willing to give up their Longhorn Network as part of a deal. That was the sticking point with the Pac 12 deal and still is. I see Texas eventually going independent in football just as Notre Dame is doing. I still think Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will eventually end up in the SEC.

I see OU and OSU bolting to the SEC then followed by the B12 reevaluating their future.

The next realignment will be about maximizing  content.  OU is the golden goose.  Making a packaged deal for the Bedlam schools keeps OU off the Big Ten's radar.  ACC schools are off limits as their GOR expires in 2034-ish.  Everyone else is up in about 5-7 years.

I would love to see Texas slide into the SEC at the number 17 spot followed by Kansas or West Virginia at 18.  The SEC would be making serious bank.  If Texas "rebuilds" the Big 12 or goes independent in football, I hope the horns can find room to schedule the hogs a lot more.

[Murr]

NEVER underestimate that stability thing.......................It's probably number one or two of the top main reasons some of if not all of the previous members that left the little 12 did so.

When Texas was trying to secretly move A&M, OU, OSU, Tech and Colorado to the PAC, the other schools [Baylor, KU, Mizzou, KSU, Neb, ISU] were looking at some bleak realignment options--well besides Nebraska of course.  The Big East and Mountain West were the probable landing spots.  Those leftover Big 12 schools were looking at reductions in TV pay at or over 50% at the time.

So essentially you are right, Colorado left because they were a better fit in the PAC while Nebraska, A&M and Mizzou left because of the Texas favoritism and instability of the conference.

[slowride]

I would love to see Texas slide into the SEC at the number 17 spot followed by Kansas or West Virginia at 18.  The SEC would be making serious bank.  If Texas "rebuilds" the Big 12 or goes independent in football, I hope the horns can find room to schedule the hogs a lot more.

Exactly.  In fact, I think the SEC needs to make adding OU and Texas a priority.  Find out what it would take even if we have to give up a little bit at the beginning just to boost Texas's ego, front load the contract just a little bit and then make it even out.  It would be worth it.  Each team in the conference would end up getting more.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The SWC had even more dead weight before it died than the current Big 12 does today.

People forget the math involved in the Big 12 contract; the networks decided to keep paying the Big 12 their current contract despite losing the values of Nebraska and Colorado.  Then when A&M and Mizzou bolted, those same Networks still kept the same payments except added TCU and WVU.  The original 12 team B12 is splitting a contract ten ways vs 12.  If the contract was redone today, would they still be in the same ball park as the other P5 schools?

Maybe, but the article was referring to the time when the Big 8 and the old SWC were initially looking to merge. Texas, for the first time with their new conference, dictated terms (what a shock) about who they wanted to see be involved in the new Big 12 and who would be excluded. Texas was the key team from the old SWC at the time but I wish now, looking back, that the Big Eight would have had the guts to tell Texas to pound sand, that all of the SWC would be coming over to the new Big 16. Texas might have relented in what they wanted to see happen and it would have sent a clear message from the beginning that they weren't going to be allowed to run the conference. And that, is the rest of the story.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Exactly.  In fact, I think the SEC needs to make adding OU and Texas a priority.  Find out what it would take even if we have to give up a little bit at the beginning just to boost Texas's ego, front load the contract just a little bit and then make it even out.  It would be worth it.  Each team in the conference would end up getting more.

Texas doesn't need their ego boosted and, Texas wouldn't want any part of the SEC because they would have to ditch the LHN. Plus, they have enough problems trying to win in their conference without coming to the SEC.

[Murr]

The SEC doesn't need Texas...but the opposite may soon be true..you deal from a position of strength if you get Texas in the room.

The position of strength is having all of Teaxas' historic rivals in one conference .  OU, Aggy, Ark.  what will UTa schedule look like if OU leaves the Big 12?  The upset fans could be the force required to push Texas into agreeing to terms with the SEC and becoming a member.  That many pissed off fans could fight off political pressure from Texas politicians trying to protect Tech and Baylor and TCU.

Remember when Aggy and Longhorns were "tied to the hip"?  All it took was a pissed off Aggy with their ducks in a row to leave.