2017-18 Razorback Bracketology Tracker

[LivingLegends]

they have us losing both?

Looks like a likely seed if we win one of our next 3 including the SEC tournament.  If we get a double bye that game will be very tough.

[k.c.hawg]

Quadrant 1 Win Totals (as of games played 2/24)

KU      11-3
UNC    10-5
Virginia 8-1
UF        8-4
Aubbie  8-5

Nova     7-3

Houston 6-2
Purdue  6-3
XU        6-4
TTech    6-5
LSU      6-6
WVU     6-6
Mizzou  6-7
OU       6-8

UC        5-3
FSU      5-4
VaTech  5-5
Bama    5-6
NCSt     5-6
Ark       5-7
Vols      5-7
A&M     5-7
Tejas    5-9

St. Bon  4-2
Zona     4-3
Miami   4-4
ASU      4-4
Mich     4-5
SetHall  4-6
TCU      4-7
Prov     4-7
Marq     4-7
UG       4-8
SoCar   4-9
Baylor  4-10

Zags     3-1
WichSt  3-2
MTSU   3-3
MichSt  3-3
Duke    3-3
OhioSt  3-5
SoCal    3-5
Wash    3-5
MSSt    3-6
Utes     3-6
UCLA    3-6
Creigh. 3-7
Butler   3-8
KState  3-8
T. Owls 3-8
UofL     3-8
UK       3-8

Nevada    2-2
URI         2-4
Oregon    2-5
NotreDam2-6
PennSt    2-6
Clemson  2-7
Syracuse 2-7
Note: There are some other projected automatic qualifiers with 2 Quad 1 wins

St. Mary's 1-1
BoiseSt     1-2
Nebraska  1-5
------------------

How did Arkansas not change from 2/17 to 2/25 with a home loss to Kentucky and a road win at Bama. Looks like they should be 6-8.

[Kevin McPherson]

How did Arkansas not change from 2/17 to 2/25 with a home loss to Kentucky and a road win at Bama. Looks like they should be 6-8.

I believe it's because Mizzou recently fell out of the RPI Top 30 ... home wins that qualify for Quadrant 1 are aganst teams in the RPI Top 30, and Mizzou tumbled to around 40th after Ole Miss beat them at home on Tuesday.

[jbcarol]

I believe it's because Mizzou recently fell out of the RPI Top 30 ... home wins that qualify for Quadrant 1 are aganst teams in the RPI Top 30, and Mizzou tumbled to around 40th after Ole Miss beat them at home on Tuesday.

Exactly.  Moving target.

For example, A&M's Quad 1 went from 7-8 to 5-7 in one week.

[Hog_Fink]

wonder what happens if we beat aubbie & mizzou
this is an odd year

[gmarv54]

Jerry Palm has the Hogs as a 7 as of this morning.

Aub      2
Tenn     3
Kent     5
Ark      7
A&M    9
Miz     10
Fl       10
Al       11

this looks more reasonable to me.

[jbcarol]

 Porter's Jacket‏ @PortersJacket
Replying to @jppalmCBS

So injury to the team's best doesn't come into play for three of those loses? My understanding was the committee looks at that.

Jerry Palm‏Verified account @jppalmCBS

Jerry Palm Retweeted Porter's Jacket

Plays into seeding, not selection. Losses are losses. Not ignored. Not treated as would have won.

[Ironhawg]

Much rather be a 7 than an 8 or 9.

[Hog_Fink]

how is Michigan St not a 1 seed??

[jbcarol]

Shelby Mast
‏Verified account @BracketWAG
28m28 minutes ago

Last week of the regular season for most teams - today's bracket posted - http://bracketwag.com

[ballhog™]

Set up to play North Carolina, of course.t

[GoHogzzGo]

Much rather be a 7 than an 8 or 9.

Agreed. Can make such a big difference.

[opineonswine]

Agreed. Can make such a big difference.

I'd rather be a 10 than an 8 or 9.

[jst01]

If we get matched up with UNC again that's going to feel like a kick in the balls

[The real Hogules]

Shelby Mast
‏Verified account @BracketWAG
28m28 minutes ago

Last week of the regular season for most teams - today's bracket posted - http://bracketwag.com

And once again, just like Ken Poms tracker, we are placed in a bracket with UNC. GAWD, I hate the Tar Heels!

[a0ashle]

There is no way they can focus any effort on keeping UNC and us from meeting after the first week, but they should definitely be able to keep it from happening before then.

[riccoar]

Another thing to consider.  We win both regular season games and we stand a great chance of finishing 3rd in the SEC.  That would probably push our seeding higher too.

[k.c.hawg]

Lunardi finally has bumped them up to an 8 against Miami. Winner gets Xavier.

[The_Iceman]

Lunardi finally has bumped them up to an 8 against Miami. Winner gets Xavier.

Xavier would be a tough matchup for us. They are long, athletic, and can shoot.

[Polecat]

If we get matched up with UNC again that's going to feel like a kick in the balls

If we get matched up with UNC again, I'm gonna hop on a plane and pull a Nancy Kerrigan on Joel Barry and Luke Maye's knees

[Busta_Nutt]

Xavier would be a tough matchup for us. They are long, athletic, and can shoot.

Any 1 seed is going to be a tough match-up for us...

[razobak]

Another thing to consider.  We win both regular season games and we stand a great chance of finishing 3rd in the SEC.  That would probably push our seeding higher too.

Yep. I made a thread about it yesterday but the way it currently sits, we are in a four-way tie for 3rd with Florida, Kentucky, and Miss State. All of whom have beaten us head-to-head, so we naturally lose those tiebreakers and would fall to 6th if the tourney started today. But Florida and Kentucky play each other in the season finale, and Miss State still has to play Tennessee and go to LSU. If we win out and Miss State loses one of those games, we would earn a top 4 seed because either Florida or Kentucky is guaranteed one more loss since they play each other. If either Florida or Kentucky stumble in their other game, we could vault all the way up to a #3 seed and miss playing Auburn until the finals, potentially. That is, if Auburn is even still the #1 seed. They could still presumably fall to #2 if Tenn wins out and they lose to us and at home to S.Car (not likely).

[Hog Pharm]

Yep. I made a thread about it yesterday but the way it currently sits, we are in a four-way tie for 3rd with Florida, Kentucky, and Miss State. All of whom have beaten us head-to-head, so we naturally lose those tiebreakers and would fall to 6th if the tourney started today. But Florida and Kentucky play each other in the season finale, and Miss State still has to play Tennessee and go to LSU. If we win out and Miss State loses one of those games, we would earn a top 4 seed because either Florida or Kentucky is guaranteed one more loss since they play each other. If either Florida or Kentucky stumble in their other game, we could vault all the way up to a #3 seed and miss playing Auburn until the finals, potentially. That is, if Auburn is even still the #1 seed. They could still presumably fall to #2 if Tenn wins out and they lose to us and at home to S.Car (not likely).

Pretty sure that's not how the tiebreaker works.

[GoHogzzGo]

https://www.aseaofblue.com/2018/2/26/17053532/college-basketball-bracketology-kentucky-wildcats-pat-espn-projection

Siap

8 seed again on this one against Miami. With Xavier as the one seed.

[BannerMountainMan]

Lunardi updated the big bracket we are up to an 8 seed and trending upward, we win 1 of 2 we prolly stay in the 8 line, win both we might bump up to 6

[cityhog]

As long as UNC is not in our region (1st 2 rounds) I'm fine w/ whatever.

[Atlhogfan1]

I'm still thinking we are going to be in the 7 range or maybe 6 when the actual bracket is announced.  I think we win tomorrow night.  And even though there is a good chance AU is fading due to lack of depth, their RPI will hold.  As long as we stay away from one of the few good offensive teams in the SECT, we will probably get another win or two there. 

[daprospecta]

Lunardi updated the big bracket we are up to an 8 seed and trending upward, we win 1 of 2 we prolly stay in the 8 line, win both we might bump up to 6

8 still seems high.  I've seen consistent 7's and even a few 6's.  Lunardi tends to lean towards names in his seeding.  He seems to understand who is in and who isn't but his seeding sometimes throws me for a loop.

[99toLife]

8 still seems high.  I've seen consistent 7's and even a few 6's.  Lunardi tends to lean towards names in his seeding. He seems to understand who is in and who isn't but his seeding sometimes throws me for a loop.

People need to read that and digest it. He is good at who's in and who's not.

[Adam Stokes]

People need to read that and digest it. He is good at who's in and who's not.

Even then he's only quite average, but still much better than Jerry. The most accurate bracket the past 5 years has us currently as a 6 seed.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[razobak]

Pretty sure that’s not how the tiebreaker works.

Sure it does. Us, UK, UF, and MSU are all 9-7 in the SEC standings right now. There is a four-way tie, and it doesn't matter to me where the other three teams would be seeded, all I know is since we lost head-to-head to each of the other three teams we are tied with, we would be last out of the four. That would put us in 6th, if the season ended today and everyone's remaining games were cancelled. Obviously that scenario is not going to happen, and everyone has two more games remaining before the season ends.

In the season-ending scenario, if we win out, we would be 11-7. If all four teams (UA, UF, UK, MSU) won out, the same tiebreaking scenarios would be in place, and we would be 6th. But UF and UK play each other, so one of them is guaranteed to lose that game and finish 10-8 at best, and thus would be behind us in the standings. There goes one team that we are tied with. Now it's a three way tiebreaker. If MSU loses one of their remaining games, they would also be a game behind us (again, this is all provided we win out). There goes another team. Now it's down to a two-way tiebreaker with either UF or UK (whoever wins their game, provided that team also wins its other game). We would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against either UF or UK if we both finished 11-7 in SEC play. But if we are in a two-way tie for third, the worst possible seed we could get is the #4 seed. That's what my scenario was referencing.

To simply state our scenario for finishing 4th, we need MSU to lose to either Tennessee or LSU, and we need to win out. Kentucky and Florida play each other, so that would naturally break our tie with the loser of that game.

For us to finish 3rd, we would need MSU to lose at least once, and the winner of UK-UF needs to lose their other game. Oh, and we would still need to win out. Kentucky plays Ole Miss at home and Florida plays at Alabama. The UF-UK game will be played at Florida.

I haven't bothered to think about seeding scenarios that involve us losing one of our two remaining games, because that would likely eliminate us from being able to finish in the top 4.

[razobak]

Bracketville just released their bracketology update for today. They've got the Hogs seeded 6th, playing 11 seed St. Mary's in Dallas. Would get 3 seed Wichita State with a win.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

I would take this scenario in a heartbeat.

Edit: Bracketville was rated the #1 most accurate bracket projection site over the past 5 years by Bracket Matrix. So this guy's pretty legit.

[GoHogzzGo]

Bracketville just released their bracketology update for today. They've got the Hogs seeded 6th, playing 11 seed St. Mary's in Dallas. Would get 3 seed Wichita State with a win.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

I would take this scenario in a heartbeat.

Edit: Bracketville was rated the #1 most accurate bracket projection site over the past 5 years by Bracket Matrix. So this guy's pretty legit.

Would kill for this scenario, yes please.

[hogsanity]

Would kill for this scenario, yes please.

Why? St Mary's and WSU are the exact type of teams the Hogs struggle most against.

[SSFrazorback]

8 still seems high.  I've seen consistent 7's and even a few 6's.  Lunardi tends to lean towards names in his seeding.  He seems to understand who is in and who isn't but his seeding sometimes throws me for a loop.

I seem to remember that being the case last year.

[Hog Pharm]

Sure it does. Us, UK, UF, and MSU are all 9-7 in the SEC standings right now. There is a four-way tie, and it doesn't matter to me where the other three teams would be seeded, all I know is since we lost head-to-head to each of the other three teams we are tied with, we would be last out of the four. That would put us in 6th, if the season ended today and everyone's remaining games were cancelled. Obviously that scenario is not going to happen, and everyone has two more games remaining before the season ends.

In the season-ending scenario, if we win out, we would be 11-7. If all four teams (UA, UF, UK, MSU) won out, the same tiebreaking scenarios would be in place, and we would be 6th. But UF and UK play each other, so one of them is guaranteed to lose that game and finish 10-8 at best, and thus would be behind us in the standings. There goes one team that we are tied with. Now it's a three way tiebreaker. If MSU loses one of their remaining games, they would also be a game behind us (again, this is all provided we win out). There goes another team. Now it's down to a two-way tiebreaker with either UF or UK (whoever wins their game, provided that team also wins its other game). We would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against either UF or UK if we both finished 11-7 in SEC play. But if we are in a two-way tie for third, the worst possible seed we could get is the #4 seed. That's what my scenario was referencing.

To simply state our scenario for finishing 4th, we need MSU to lose to either Tennessee or LSU, and we need to win out. Kentucky and Florida play each other, so that would naturally break our tie with the loser of that game.

For us to finish 3rd, we would need MSU to lose at least once, and the winner of UK-UF needs to lose their other game. Oh, and we would still need to win out. Kentucky plays Ole Miss at home and Florida plays at Alabama. The UF-UK game will be played at Florida.

I haven't bothered to think about seeding scenarios that involve us losing one of our two remaining games, because that would likely eliminate us from being able to finish in the top 4.

Tiebreaker isn't head to head. It's how you fared against the top 2 teams. If the season ended today Florida would be 3rd because they beat Auburn. We would be 4th because we beat Tennessee and the other teams didn't. That's how the SEC network had it Saturday night anyway.

[jbcarol]

https://www.aseaofblue.com/2018/2/26/17053532/college-basketball-bracketology-kentucky-wildcats-pat-espn-projection

Siap

8 seed again on this one against Miami. With Xavier as the one seed.

Joe Lunardi
‏Verified account @ESPNLunardi
7h7 hours ago

NCAAM Bracketology - ESPN http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?src=desktop ...

[jbcarol]

Bracketville
‏ @BracketguyDave
55m55 minutes ago

As we head into action tonight, here's today's Bracket: http://ow.ly/heKJ30iDaUy  and Seed List

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Hey JB thanks for all the links and keeping us up to date on this and the goings on around the SEC.  Appreciate the effort.

[jbcarol]

Hey JB thanks for all the links and keeping us up to date on this and the goings on around the SEC.  Appreciate the effort.

I've been slacking on getting the TV schedule for games posted.

[jbcarol]

Shelby Mast
‏Verified account @BracketWAG
30s30 seconds ago

No new teams today, but a little bit of a shake-up - bracket posted - http://bracketwag.com

[gmarv54]

 Thanks JB, for doing a good job of keeping us informed.I like this kind of stuff.

[Bogghawg]

Tiebreaker isn't head to head. It's how you fared against the top 2 teams. If the season ended today Florida would be 3rd because they beat Auburn. We would be 4th because we beat Tennessee and the other teams didn't. That's how the SEC network had it Saturday night anyway.

Yes.  Head to head only is in play with a two team tie.

[masondh]

Yes.  Head to head only is in play with a two team tie.

First tiebreaker is record among all tied teams (essentially head to head). We're in 6th right now. Quick google: http://www.secsports.com/article/11098238/tournament-tiebreakers

[jbcarol]

Thanks JB, for doing a good job of keeping us informed.I like this kind of stuff.

Should have the "if the SEC Tournament started today" composite on Wednesday after the last game with tie breakers factored in.

[jbcarol]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology  Updated Feb 27, 6:15am

[Pig in the Pokey]

^^^ thats sadistic. get the 7 and face UNC as a 2 smfh...

[jbcarol]

Texas drops off the bracket and Alabama could do the same

Longhorns are out of the field of 68 after losing to Kansas and may be joined by the Crimson Tide

[HoopS]

OU doesn't deserve a spot.

[greenEGnHAWGS]

I'm not looking forward to playing WV second round if this stays like this.