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The Trey Flowers Dilemma

Started by Steef, June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm

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Steef

We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.

Vantage 8 dude

Your argument and points make WAY TOO much sense for some one here. Might as well argue with a wall.

 

Adam Stokes

If arguing that most of our three star players will likely end up as a Trey Flowers is like arguing against a wall, more people should probably argue with a wall.  Food for thought. 

I'm really surprised I'm playing the antagonist in these discussions today, as I've been generally pleased with how well Bielema has done recruiting.  But once again, since we seem to need to be reminded, the higher the stars the more success teams have.  Here's an article on the 2010 class and 2014 draft per star.  http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/5/12/5696710/nfl-draft-recruits-five-stars-two-stars

The stat the article should've mentioned to make it better is this one. Percent of players drafted:

5-stars - 59%
4-stars - 19%
3-stars - 6%
2-stars - 3%

We're probably getting higher quality 3-stars than the average 3-star, and the staff does a good job retaining guys, so it wouldn't surprise me if we had higher.  But I still get tired of the "well it worked for one guy so the other 15 will have the same result" argument.  Or just as bad "well it worked with one guy so it is worth risking with another 15" argument.  Most people like to use the Jamaal Anderson anecdote, so I'm glad you avoided that one.

I'm more than happy defending the staff in how well we've done thus far up to this point.  I don't want Bielema going anywhere.  I'm just not (yet) excited about this class.  It would be interesting to see how Bielema does with the recruits he has come in compared to their star rating, maybe I'll do that analysis one of these days if things are slow at work as I did in showing that Kentucky does indeed increase your draft stock when people were Monk butthurt.

ADavisTheGOAT

I just noticed we signed Kody Walker 6 classes ago. Jeez, he's been here forever.
Razorbacks | Redskins | Pelicans | LA Tech

factchecker

Drew Morgan- 2 star :




Martrell Spaight mid 3 star who was told "he was too small for the SEC" :




Sebastian Tretola - low 3 star who started his collegiate career at the University of Nevada




WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

ricepig

Quote from: Hogfan991 on June 26, 2016, 04:02:22 pm
I just noticed we signed Kody Walker 6 classes ago. Jeez, he's been here forever.

Yeah, he's going to mentor Bret, lol.

Adam Stokes

Quote from: factchecker on June 26, 2016, 04:06:08 pm
Drew Morgan- 2 star :




Martrell Spaight mid 3 star who was told "he was too small for the SEC" :




Sebastian Tretola - low 3 star who started his collegiate career at the University of Nevada






Should we also list all the 3-stars that didn't quite pan out as well as those three did?  You know, just so we're balanced in the discussion.  Chances are it would take a little longer to look up, so I won't require it of you.

ricepig

Quote from: Adam Stokes on June 26, 2016, 04:08:58 pm
Should we also list all the 3-stars that didn't quite pan out as well as those three did?  You know, just so we're balanced in the discussion.  Chances are it would take a little longer to look up, so I won't require it of you.

Well, what's our hit rate on 4* + 5* while we're at it??

Steef

Quote from: Adam Stokes on June 26, 2016, 03:59:39 pm
If arguing that most of our three star players will likely end up as a Trey Flowers is like arguing against a wall, more people should probably argue with a wall.  Food for thought. 

I'm really surprised I'm playing the antagonist in these discussions today, as I've been generally pleased with how well Bielema has done recruiting.  But once again, since we seem to need to be reminded, the higher the stars the more success teams have.  Here's an article on the 2010 class and 2014 draft per star.  http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/5/12/5696710/nfl-draft-recruits-five-stars-two-stars

The stat the article should've mentioned to make it better is this one. Percent of players drafted:

5-stars - 59%
4-stars - 19%
3-stars - 6%
2-stars - 3%

We're probably getting higher quality 3-stars than the average 3-star, and the staff does a good job retaining guys, so it wouldn't surprise me if we had higher.  But I still get tired of the "well it worked for one guy so the other 15 will have the same result" argument.  Or just as bad "well it worked with one guy so it is worth risking with another 15" argument.  Most people like to use the Jamaal Anderson anecdote, so I'm glad you avoided that one.

I'm more than happy defending the staff in how well we've done thus far up to this point.  I don't want Bielema going anywhere.  I'm just not (yet) excited about this class.  It would be interesting to see how Bielema does with the recruits he has come in compared to their star rating, maybe I'll do that analysis one of these days if things are slow at work as I did in showing that Kentucky does indeed increase your draft stock when people were Monk butthurt.

I'm as excited about this class as any other class.

We always have this EXACT SAME discussion at this time of year. The only difference this year, is how many 3 stars we're taking.

Any recruit that Bret gives a schollie to...in the summer...is not a 'second tier' choice...for Bret. It's a kid he believes in...or he would hold the schollie.

Bret doesn't fill out his full complement...just to be lining up warm bodies. He also keeps his word.

He's finished several classes with schollies left over. If he gives one early....then he BELIEVES in the kid.

At which point...so do I.


Adam Stokes

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 04:42:30 pm
I'm as excited about this class as any other class.

We always have this EXACT SAME discussion at this time of year. The only difference this year, is how many 3 stars we're taking.

Any recruit that Bret gives a schollie to...in the summer...is not a 'second tier' choice...for Bret. It's a kid he believes in...or he would hold the schollie.

Bret doesn't fill out his full complement...just to be lining up warm bodies. He also keeps his word.

He's finished several classes with schollies left over. If he gives one early....then he BELIEVES in the kid.

At which point...so do I.

Yep, it's normally at this point in the year that I am defending Bret from the negative Nancy's because the quality of the class is normally on par with other programs, we simply normally have fewer commits compared to the other teams.  This year we have a higher number of commits than normal, they are just of lower "star quality" FWIW. 

Here's the percent of signees that were 4-star or higher in Bret's classes since he's been here:

2013: 16%
2014: 17%
2015: 28%
2016: 27%
2017: 7%

So I'm still hoping there will be some corrections as the sites re-evaluate the players and that Bret will continue to land the big fish he usually does.  Makes me wonder if the extra camps have had any effect on the scholarships that have been given out.  And thanks again to the mod's who moved this topic out of highjacking the other commit thread.

Wildhog

It's a numbers game.  Heavily recruited players pan out at a greater rate than others.  People will either trust CBB's evaluations or they won't.  He's going to have to start winning, though.  Our team consists mostly of his recruits now.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

ricepig

Quote from: Wildhog on June 26, 2016, 05:13:27 pm
It's a numbers game.  Heavily recruited players pan out at a greater rate than others.  People will either trust CBB's evaluations or they won't.  He's going to have to start winning, though.  Our team consists mostly of his recruits now.

We are winning, though.

Oklahawg

You guys need to leave the stars crap alone. It only stirs the pot and pisses off the guys who should be deep-sixed when they post this stuff a gazillion times a year.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

 

Wahls

Some people feel the inherent need to talk themselves into the idea that it's ok that we're not getting the best players. I don't even understand why threads like this exist or why this gets discussed once a week.

Yes we can win. Yes it is harder. Yes you probably want 5 star players if you have your choice.
Quote from: A.Ziffle on April 20, 2012, 10:39:01 pm
You have two kinds of tough guys... those that do it from behind a keyboard, and those that juggle soap in prison just to show they're a fearless bastard.

Wildhog

Quote from: ricepig on June 26, 2016, 05:16:43 pm
We are winning, though.

Not according to the expectations that you laid out yesterday.  Not yet, at least.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Vantage 8 dude

Quote from: Adam Stokes on June 26, 2016, 04:08:58 pm
Should we also list all the 3-stars that didn't quite pan out as well as those three did?  You know, just so we're balanced in the discussion.  Chances are it would take a little longer to look up, so I won't require it of you.
Well while you're at it how about dividing up all those three stars that WEREN'T recruited by CBB. While they certainly haven't all panned out, I would say that more   have under the current staff than most others.

factchecker

Quote from: Adam Stokes on June 26, 2016, 04:59:51 pm
Here's the percent of signees that were 4-star or higher in Bret's classes since he's been here:
2013: 16%
2014: 17%
2015: 28%
2016: 27%
2017: 7%

Good research.  I agree that the probablity of a higher rated recruit panning out is higher but I'm not as dimissive of our lower rated players.  I wouldn't trade Drew for any 5 star recruit today.

This got me thinking.  How have the 4 star or higher recruits performed here.  I went back and looked at every 4 star recruit we signed since 2008.  Some names you'll remember and some you might not.

2008

De'Anthony Curtis
Joe Adams
Tyler Wilson
Jarius Wright

2009

Darius Winston
Ronnie Wingo Jr.
Knile Davis
Anthony Oden
Anthony Leon
Colby Berna

2010

Calvin Barnett
Cam Fedlt

2011

Brey Cook
Marquel Wade
Quinta Funderburk

2012

Jonathan Williams
Keon Hatcher
Otha Peters
Taiwan Johnson
Demetrius Dean

5 years of recruiting = 20 4-star recruits.  How many lived up to the hype?

I'd say Joe Adams, Tyler Wilson, Jarius Wright, Ronnie Wingo Jr., Knile Davis, Brey Cook, J-Will, Keon Hatcher, and Taiwan Johnson did.

Anthony Oden, Calvin Barnett, Cam Fedlt, Marquel Wade, Quinta Funderburk, and 5 star Darius Winston did not.

2013
Alex Collins
Hunter Henry
Denver Kirkland
Austin Allen

2014

Bijhon Jackson
Brian Wallace
Jojo Robinson
Frank Ragnow

2015

Hjalte Froholdt
Will Gragg
Cheyenne O'Grady
Ty Storey
Jamario Bell
Jalen Merrick
Jeremiah Ledbetter

2016

McTelvin Agim
Devwah Whaley
Austin Capps
T.J. Hammonds
Briston Guidry
Jake Heinrich

4 years of recruiting = 21 4 stars.  How many lived up to the hype?  Hard to say with so many still on the roster but Alex, Hunter, and Denver sure did.  JoJo didn't and was constantly in the dog house.... eventually dismissed.
WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

jjdlc

Quote from: factchecker on June 26, 2016, 04:06:08 pm
Drew Morgan- 2 star :




Martrell Spaight mid 3 star who was told "he was too small for the SEC" :




Sebastian Tretola - low 3 star who started his collegiate career at the University of Nevada



CBB certainly has a pretty good hit rate on sub 4*s. 

Several of our 4*s in this past class were not 4*s when they committed.  Looking at video, I expect at least a couple of our current commits to end up as 4*s when it's all said and done.

Prestworthy

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm
We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.
Your micro aggressions are triggering me.

Prestworthy

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm
We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.
Btw, this argument is full of holes.  Love Trey Flowers...he was a great Razorback....but you picked one 3* that was drafted and left out all the others who weren't.

Hoggish1


kkbrody

Look at the 2014 class. See who has had meaningful playing time out of the 24 we signed. And even with the understanding that there will be some who haven't had meaningful playing time yet but will in this upcoming season, the numbers are not great.

If you can do that and not see how some folks would question CBBs recruiting, don't know what else to say.

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2014-Football/Commits

ricepig

Quote from: kkbrody on June 26, 2016, 09:31:39 pm
Look at the 2014 class. See who has had meaningful playing time out of the 24 we signed. And even with the understanding that there will be some who haven't had meaningful playing time yet but will in this upcoming season, the numbers are not great.

If you can do that and not see how some folks would question CBBs recruiting, don't know what else to say.

http://arkansas.247sports.com/Season/2014-Football/Commits

I'd say having over half having made starts is good, what do you think it should be?

bphi11ips

Quote from: Oklahawg on June 26, 2016, 05:24:00 pm
You guys need to leave the stars crap alone. It only stirs the pot and pisses off the guys who should be deep-sixed when they post this stuff a gazillion times a year.

Shut down the Recruiting Forum.  It's a cesspool on all sides and always has been. 

And bring back the frosh.

Seriously.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

 

Prestworthy

Quote from: ricepig on June 26, 2016, 09:39:06 pm
I'd say having over half having made starts is good, what do you think it should be?
numbers are in their favor when 90% are 3*

Paul


Nipsey Mussle

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm
We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.
I wouldn't take this approach with just any coach, but I trust BB to bring in the right recruits. However, your logic is flawed here. If recruiting were texas hold em, then I would say a 3 star is like having a pair of tens in the hole. A 5 star would be the equivalent of pockets aces. 20% of the time, pocket tens will beat pocket aces. Just like one can point to a 3 star which became a stud, and at the same time can point to a 5 star who was a bust. However, I can find at least 5 three stars who weren't very productive for every Trey Flowers you can name.

And b/c this is Hogvile, I will include a few disclaimers: No, I don't have a problem with our current class. No, I don't think all 3 stars are terrible and all 5 stars are amazing. No, not all 3 stars are built the same. And yes, I do trust BB to evaluate well and develop players terrifically.

regi

Quote from: factchecker on June 26, 2016, 04:06:08 pm
Drew Morgan- 2 star :




Martrell Spaight mid 3 star who was told "he was too small for the SEC" :




Sebastian Tretola - low 3 star who started his collegiate career at the University of Nevada






Love all three of these guys and 73 was a 4 star in a couple services, but how many SECC did they win (I hope Drew gets one)? None, the same amount we have won the first 24 years in the league. Look, Bret is going to win games and put under rated guys in the NFL, it is what he does, but Arkansas or nobody is going to win the SEC without 4 and 5 star talent, it is just the way it is and has always been. We can get more 4 star talent here and I think the staff has finally figured out how, by offering and recruiting over 60 players from East Texas and Louisiana and treating them like in state kids. That is the key, we just need more Whaley's and Guidry's to say yes.

ricepig

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 26, 2016, 10:34:04 pm
numbers are in their favor when 90% are 3*

Wasn't the question, now was it?

jkstock04

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm
We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.

Always going to be outliers/exceptions to the rule. Nobody has ever argued against that and it's no new line of thinking.

Fact of the matter is nobody in the SEC has ever done it. It's never been done. Mizzou came close...that's it. "Stars don't matter"'argument doesn't hold up in the SEC.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Steef

Quote from: Oklahawg on June 26, 2016, 05:24:00 pm
You guys need to leave the stars crap alone. It only stirs the pot and pisses off the guys who should be deep-sixed when they post this stuff a gazillion times a year.

There will never be a time when this debate does not occur.

Never.

Like the GSD, this same argument cannot die. It has existed for as long as message boards and rating systems.

Even the threat of banishment doesn't deter it.

Doesn't mean it's a worthy topic. I personally think it is primarily mean spirited, unhappy people wanting to get others to share their misery, by picking on teenage boys who can't fight back.

imo.... better to have it all in one place, than have it sprinkled in every new recruit's named thread.

You can move it when you read this, though.

I made my point.

Cinco de Hogo

I trust the future production of a CBB recruited class a lot more than I have the last four or five coaches. With the current state of affairs in the SECW however I don't see that leading to a championship.  Anything can happen over a four year span of time.  Been listening/reading these type arguments for forty years and waiting for another championship for fifty two years.  A class full of three stars is gonna do it though!  Well not by themselves.  Five solid classes just might one day.  At least that's all we can hang our hat on because that's what we got.

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Rankings will be changed several times before signing day. Judging by the film of our current commits, there will be quite a few of them boosted up to 4* status. Just a matter of time
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

jkstock04

Quote from: Steef on June 27, 2016, 06:57:35 am


Doesn't mean it's a worthy topic. I personally think it is primarily mean spirited, unhappy people wanting to get others to share their misery, by picking on teenage boys who can't fight back.

imo.... better to have it all in one place, than have it sprinkled in every new recruit's named thread.


I see that as a stretch. Why does does this have to be so personal to some people?

Are you sure it may not have something to do with people who compare the players we get vs the players other teams in the SEC get? Don't you think that is an important comparison? This isn't unique to Bielema...been the same song and dance the entire time we have been in the SEC.

Picking on teenage boys...not saying that's never occurred but to paint that broad brush on everyone who thinks having blue chip caliber players = winning more games in long run is crazy.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

bphi11ips

Quote from: Steef on June 27, 2016, 06:57:35 am
There will never be a time when this debate does not occur.

What you're really saying is there won't be a time when Arkansas has top 10 recruiting classes, at least not prospectively.  There are more reasons for this than talent.  Personally I prefer to focus on the final season rankings.  Those haven't been spectacular most of the time, either, but we've had our moments.

There wasn't a lot of bellyaching last year. 

Quote from: Steef

I personally think it is primarily mean spirited, unhappy people wanting to get others to share their misery, by picking on teenage boys who can't fight back.


How is questioning this class so far mean-spirited?  How is it picking on teenage boys? 

To be clear, I rarely post in this thread and haven't questioned this class here.  But there are legitimate reasons to scratch your head and hope it doesn't turn out like the class of 2010.  For me, I trust this coach, whereas I didn't trust Petrino.  I got slammed by the usual suspects for criticizing that class, but guess what?  I was right and the usual suspects would admit that now.  At no time did I question a particular player's ability.

There are legitimate reasons to be concerned at this point about the class overall.  I don't understand it, but I don't have to.  Doesn't mean I'm not scratching my head.  If the mods want to squelch all discussion that's their business.  They'll be left with themselves and the usual suspects.  I've received PM's over the years a few times for saying things on Hogville others wanted to say, but they were afraid to post because they didn't want to get flamed.

No one likes to go to the principal's office.  I sort of enjoyed it.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

lefty08

Again, there is a time and place to make concerns known, and commit threads are not the place. Isn't this how all this started?
Re: So far the UC press conference is hilarious   Reply
Losing gracefully isn't taught in second-tier programs. See Arkansas, Cincinnati, et al.
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Richard_white

Quote from: lefty08 on June 27, 2016, 08:10:34 am
Again, there is a time and place to make concerns known, and commit threads are not the place. Isn't this how all this started?


jkstock04

Quote from: lefty08 on June 27, 2016, 08:10:34 am
Again, there is a time and place to make concerns known, and commit threads are not the place. Isn't this how all this started?
That's fair enough. Bringing this up in a commit thread isn't the place. But I would say with the OP it opens the whole can of worms on this thread.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

WooPig90

If you are going to complain about us getting low 3 stars, at least wait until the end rankings to see if these guys are even low 3 stars then

Launcellous

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on June 27, 2016, 07:19:19 am
Rankings will be changed several times before signing day. Judging by the film of our current commits, there will be quite a few of them boosted up to 4* status. Just a matter of time

This is my thought. These kids still have their senior season, in regards to the high school players. Many like Maleek Williams will be starters this season after being the number 2 guy behind a then senior. Also, many of our defensive commits led their teams in multiple defensive stats. Give it some time. The people who give the star ratings will get around to actually giving these kids a long, deserved look.

jry04

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm
We've got 15 recruits so far, for the 2017 class. Most of them are 3 stars.

The inevitable is occurring.

"WE CAN'T WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITH 3 STARS!!"
"ALABAMA (or...fill in the blank) DOESN'T DO THIS!!"

etc.

I will admit, this year's recruiting class is DIFFERENT from any other class that Bret has built.

However, the argument that 3 stars can't become SEC-beating athletes....runs smack dab into Trey Flowers.

http://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Flowers-9110?PlayerInstitution=4436

Trey wasn't even a 'high' 3 star. He was a 'middle of the road' 3 star.

Is there anyone on this board who wouldn't LOVE to have every 2017 recruit be EXACTLY as good as Trey Flowers was?

Gave up a year of eligibility to come back and lead us to a Cotton Bowl. Beat Texas. Got drafted by the New England Patriots.

Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for.

Food for thought.

Not disagreeing, but I can assure you that our approach to recruiting this year is different than any other year. Half of these guys that we have accepted commitments from are guys who haven't even visited. We are offering hundreds of players this year. Most years we don't give out half of that many offers. The days of not having a full class are gone. Too many times we go into signing day with just a few spots left, holding out for that 4* or 5* kid that doesn't pick us. Last year we had Fulton, Cleveland, Putu, and Porter we were hoping to get. Putu flipped, and none of the others picked us. We also lost Pollard in the last week or two. Instead of scrambling to replace these kids, or just leaving spots open, we are going to make sure they are filled one way or another. More times than not, kids we offer with a weak offer list or low ranking turn out to be much better than most expect. Pollard was a 3* with very few offers, and ended up being one of the best players in GA and a 4*. Putu was a 2* with mid-major offers, then was being recruited by Florida, A&M, and Louisville after we offered. These kids are likely no different, but a lot of these kids will likely be bumped for our bigger targets. Unfortunately, it is the way we have to approach recruiting going forward.

bphi11ips

Quote from: Launcellous on June 27, 2016, 08:57:51 am
This is my thought. These kids still have their senior season, in regards to the high school players. Many like Maleek Williams will be starters this season after being the number 2 guy behind a then senior. Also, many of our defensive commits led their teams in multiple defensive stats. Give it some time. The people who give the star ratings will get around to actually giving these kids a long, deserved look.

That was my thought about Josh Paul when I learned that he hasn't played the camp game.  As Rick Fires said, there has been an AAU-basketball-type cottage industry developing around youth football stretching down to the youth leagues, and that isn't good for many reasons.  It won't be long before the parents of the biggest, fastest 5-year-olds form secret society travel teams where the mother of the QB is sleeping with the coach. 

I care less about recruiting 15 year olds jacked up from premature lifting and supplements than I do about bringing quality kids like Josh Paul into the program.  As long as Bielema does that I don't care if we become the Vanderbilt of the West.  In fact, I'll be proud.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

FineAsSwine

Why can't we get more 5 stars and 4 stars to come on board and be a Razorback? They seem to have it figured out in Jump Ball, according to a lot of posters in there it's because our coaches are lazy and can't recruit.
Hogs up! Covid down!

Biggus Piggus

Arkansas believes it is finding players who are SEC-caliber. The 4- and 5-star players are the ones who developed earlier and were well-known a while back. Anyone who has been around high school football knows that some of the best talent develops in the junior and senior seasons. Those are much less likely to be 4- and 5-star rated, ever.

Question to me is whether you're more likely to find great talent by 1) chasing 4- and 5-stars along with everyone else, or 2) getting on the emerging talent early and obtaining early commitments from them.

Not saying that doing either is exclusive of the other. Have to recruit both. But what is more likely to pay off?

I know this - a 4- or 5-star commit in May or June is less likely to stay committed until February. Doesn't mean it will be easy to keep underrated early commits either. But the top prospects are absolutely pounded with competing attention. They rarely commit early anyway. You want to chase nothing but the most recognized recruits, you could end up with few commits by the end of the summer.

Remember this, Hog fans - some of these early commits are likely to become highly rated prospects once the rest of the world catches on. Some of those are likely to jump to other schools. Happened last year, will happen again. Arkansas isn't "filling up on 2- and 3-stars." It's getting the commits most likely to stick, but won't be 100%.
[CENSORED]!

Hook 'em Hogs

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on June 27, 2016, 09:29:07 am
Arkansas believes it is finding players who are SEC-caliber. The 4- and 5-star players are the ones who developed earlier and were well-known a while back. Anyone who has been around high school football knows that some of the best talent develops in the junior and senior seasons. Those are much less likely to be 4- and 5-star rated, ever.

Question to me is whether you're more likely to find great talent by 1) chasing 4- and 5-stars along with everyone else, or 2) getting on the emerging talent early and obtaining early commitments from them.

Not saying that doing either is exclusive of the other. Have to recruit both. But what is more likely to pay off?

I know this - a 4- or 5-star commit in May or June is less likely to stay committed until February. Doesn't mean it will be easy to keep underrated early commits either. But the top prospects are absolutely pounded with competing attention. They rarely commit early anyway. You want to chase nothing but the most recognized recruits, you could end up with few commits by the end of the summer.

Remember this, Hog fans - some of these early commits are likely to become highly rated prospects once the rest of the world catches on. Some of those are likely to jump to other schools. Happened last year, will happen again. Arkansas isn't "filling up on 2- and 3-stars." It's getting the commits most likely to stick, but won't be 100%.

Perfectly stated.  I think a significant number of these 3* guys jump up to 4* guys and will continue to pull in big offers.  The question will be is if it really means something that early on, Arkansas was the first SEC school to offer or the best SEC school to offer.  A 3* junior has a very good chance to become a 4* or even 5* graduated senior.  The tough part about all of this is that we have these guys that are underappreciated by some now, but when Bama offers, we'll be sweating it out hoping they stick with us.  College football truly is the gift that keeps on giving.

SRV

Quote from: Steef on June 26, 2016, 04:42:30 pm
I'm as excited about this class as any other class.

We always have this EXACT SAME discussion at this time of year. The only difference this year, is how many 3 stars we're taking.

Any recruit that Bret gives a schollie to...in the summer...is not a 'second tier' choice...for Bret. It's a kid he believes in...or he would hold the schollie.

Bret doesn't fill out his full complement...just to be lining up warm bodies. He also keeps his word.

He's finished several classes with schollies left over. If he gives one early....then he BELIEVES in the kid.

At which point...so do I.

Agreed. I'm curious.....are there actually fans on this board that think the coaches aren't out trying to get the best players that they can get?

Woo pig!
We've got entirely too many troublemakers here. Too many 40-year-old adolescents, felons, power drinkers and trustees of modern chemistry.....

ricepig

Quote from: bigalphahawg on June 27, 2016, 10:17:28 am
Agreed. I'm curious.....are there actually fans on this board that think the coaches aren't out trying to get the best players that they can get?

Woo pig!

It appears so, "we're just mailing it in", playing hoops in the BAC.......

SemperFi

We do realize that these kids have their senior year to be re-evaluated and some of them will end up 4 star or better.

From what we've seen out of Coach B is that they invest in these kids and turn them into players. I love consistency and see that in Coach B's recruiting style. Few problem children to give the program a black eye and his teams have competed with the best that the SEC has winning a few and losing a few. That's going up against Bama's #1 recruiting class year in and year out. Rankings haven't helped LSU. The Hogs have thoroughly beat the Tigers the past two seasons. It surely hasn't helped Texas as seen in the Texas Bowl.

Coach B is building a football factory up on the Hill loaded with quality young men and given some time we're going to compete for an SECC as well as a National Championship.
Some people wonder all their lives if they've made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem. - Ronald Reagan

Prestworthy

Quote from: bigalphahawg on June 27, 2016, 10:17:28 am
Agreed. I'm curious.....are there actually fans on this board that think the coaches aren't out trying to get the best players that they can get?

Woo pig!
I tend to think the staff could do a better job of pursuing the blue chip guys. I'm probably in the minority though.

bphi11ips

Quote from: SemperFi on June 27, 2016, 11:00:44 am
We do realize that these kids have their senior year to be re-evaluated and some of them will end up 4 star or better.

From what we've seen out of Coach B is that they invest in these kids and turn them into players. I love consistency and see that in Coach B's recruiting style. Few problem children to give the program a black eye and his teams have competed with the best that the SEC has winning a few and losing a few. That's going up against Bama's #1 recruiting class year in and year out. Rankings haven't helped LSU. The Hogs have thoroughly beat the Tigers the past two seasons. It surely hasn't helped Texas as seen in the Texas Bowl.

Coach B is building a football factory up on the Hill loaded with quality young men and given some time we're going to compete for an SECC as well as a National Championship.

Agreed.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.