Strength of SEC by year

[bennyl08]

There's been some talk on this and how it relates to comparing the success of coaches across different time periods.

I will try to avoid offering my own two cents, though that is inherent in my choice of rubric.

Looking at the SEC's draft picks by year, we can get an objective view on the quality of athletes in the SEC over time. Some limitations on this include that the quality of athletes is not a perfect predictor of quality of team. It's a pretty good indicator, but there is error. It also doesn't separate by division with my gut and memory suggesting that most of increased draft picks has been from the W. It doesn't include changes such in talent related to transfers. I know recently of a lot of players who left their SEC school due to playing time and made the NFL from another school, but I also am more knowledgeable of players overall in recent times than 10 years ago. Finally, it also doesn't address the depth of the team. Similar to quality of the team overall, you are typically safe in betting that a team with more draft picks will have an overall higher quality of athletes than one with fewer. Unlikely for one team to have say 8 draft picks in a given season, but the other 77 be of lower athleticism than a team with 2 draft picks.

Now to the meat.

06    07     08    09     10    11     12    13    14    15     16
37   41   35   37   49   38   42   63   49   54   51

Nutt's average: 37.666 draft picks per season for the SEC (Note, the 06 draft was for the 05 season and so on)
Petrino's average: 41.5
Smiley's average: 63
Bielema's average: 51.333

I don't have time tonight to break it down by conference. Suffice it to say, the current hogs are playing in a conference with 10 more NFL caliber players each and every season than Petrino faced. We alone are responsible for a little over 1 of those extra players each season over that time frame.

[gchamblee]

did you factor in the addition of 2 teams to the conference in that time?

[bennyl08]

did you factor in the addition of 2 teams to the conference in that time?

Good call.

Nutt: 3.14 NFL players per team.
Petrino: 3.46 per team
Smith: 4.5
Bielema: 3.67

Still a higher number of NFL players per team. Further, the expansion of the conference has forced us to play a higher number of those draft picks as well.


Smith:

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Good call.

Nutt: 3.14 NFL players per team.
Petrino: 3.46 per team
Smith: 4.5
Bielema: 3.67

Still a higher number of NFL players per team. Further, the expansion of the conference has forced us to play a higher number of those draft picks as well.


Smith:

Might as well give JLS' class to Petrino as it was actually his. JLS didn't "coach" anything.

[bennyl08]

Might as well give JLS' class to Petrino as it was actually his. JLS didn't "coach" anything.

12 games and Arkansas history says otherwise.

Now, there is an argument to be said for using a year or so after you leave to be included. Those 63 drafted probably were starting the year before as well.

However, two issues with that. First, we know there are multiple player's players that did in fact only play one year. Cam Newton, AJ Derby, and some others. Further, that is going to greatly skew the data distribution. With Petrino having twice the data of anybody else.

I think it is something to keep in mind, but the data clearly shows an increasing trend. Breaking it down by coaches either introduced some subjectivity, or requires a much greater amount of work. Plus, what do you count as somebody who didn't start but was a backup who got drafted.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

12 games and Arkansas history says otherwise.

Now, there is an argument to be said for using a year or so after you leave to be included. Those 63 drafted probably were starting the year before as well.

However, two issues with that. First, we know there are multiple player's players that did in fact only play one year. Cam Newton, AJ Derby, and some others. Further, that is going to greatly skew the data distribution. With Petrino having twice the data of anybody else.

I think it is something to keep in mind, but the data clearly shows an increasing trend. Breaking it down by coaches either introduced some subjectivity, or requires a much greater amount of work. Plus, what do you count as somebody who didn't start but was a backup who got drafted.

I wasn't serious, just being snarky.

[bennyl08]

I wasn't serious, just being snarky.

Gotta throw in a winky face or something. This is hogville where what some people jokingly say is what others actually think... 

[nchogg]

Please don't use JLS in the same sentence as other coaches.

[DeltaBoy]

The SEC is stronger now than when Hooten was here.

[LRRandy]

The SEC is stronger now than when Hooten was here.

alabama is stronger now than then. The rest. Not so much.

[Hog Fan...DOH!]

12 games and Arkansas history says otherwise.

Now, there is an argument to be said for using a year or so after you leave to be included. Those 63 drafted probably were starting the year before as well.

However, two issues with that. First, we know there are multiple player's players that did in fact only play one year. Cam Newton, AJ Derby, and some others. Further, that is going to greatly skew the data distribution. With Petrino having twice the data of anybody else.

I think it is something to keep in mind, but the data clearly shows an increasing trend. Breaking it down by coaches either introduced some subjectivity, or requires a much greater amount of work. Plus, what do you count as somebody who didn't start but was a backup who got drafted.

How draft picks did Reggie Herring coach?

[EastexHawg]

The difference between 3.46 per team and 3.67 is three players in the entire conference.  How many of those three additional draft picks were at Alabama?  If Alabama was already virtually unbeatable, how much difference does adding another draft pick or two make?

For that matter, how many were at teams Arkansas didn't play?  How many draft picks did Texas A&M have before joining the SEC, but when we were playing them in non-conference anyway?

There is not enough information here to make any kind of pronouncement about the difficulty of Arkansas' schedule.

[bennyl08]

The difference between 3.46 per team and 3.67 is three players in the entire conference.  How many of those three additional draft picks were at Alabama?  If Alabama was already virtually unbeatable, how much difference does adding another draft pick or two make?

For that matter, how many were at teams Arkansas didn't play?  How many draft picks did Texas A&M have before joining the SEC, but when we were playing them in non-conference anyway?

There is not enough information here to make any kind of pronouncement about the difficulty of Arkansas' schedule.

Thanks for re-stating what I already had in the OP. The numbers provided were never meant to be a prove it beyond any doubt. Namely, there are too many variables such that it is impossible to prove it beyond a doubt. Simply Exhibit F among a long list of other pieces.

Further, I mentioned how more draft picks implies stronger depth of players behind the draft picks as well, but again, hard if not impossible to actually quantify that.

[EastexHawg]

Thanks for re-stating what I already had in the OP. The numbers provided were never meant to be a prove it beyond any doubt. Namely, there are too many variables such that it is impossible to prove it beyond a doubt. Simply Exhibit F among a long list of other pieces.

Further, I mentioned how more draft picks implies stronger depth of players behind the draft picks as well, but again, hard if not impossible to actually quantify that.

And yet you closed your OP with "suffice it to say, the current hogs are playing in a conference with 10 more NFL caliber players each and every season than Petrino faced."  If you weren't trying to offer commentary on the relative strength of Arkansas' opposition then vs. now, what was the point of that statement?

[bennyl08]

And yet you closed your OP with "suffice it to say, the current hogs are playing in a conference with 10 more NFL caliber players each and every season than Petrino faced."  If you weren't trying to offer commentary on the relative strength of Arkansas' opposition then vs. now, what was the point of that statement?

Look at the words you quoted. For all any of us know, the 10 extra players could have entirely been on teams we never faced. The wording was chosen very carefully to remind the reader that this doesn't offer explicit commentary on Arkansas' opposition. Only a generic commentary on the overall amount of talent in the conference. However, there is the implication that likely this means there were more NFL players on our schedule than before, but that can't be guaranteed from the data currently. When I have more time, I do plan on breaking it down by how many NFL players we actually faced in a given season.

[EastexHawg]

Look at the words you quoted. For all any of us know, the 10 extra players could have entirely been on teams we never faced. The wording was chosen very carefully to remind the reader that this doesn't offer explicit commentary on Arkansas' opposition. Only a generic commentary on the overall amount of talent in the conference. However, there is the implication that likely this means there were more NFL players on our schedule than before, but that can't be guaranteed from the data currently. When I have more time, I do plan on breaking it down by how many NFL players we actually faced in a given season.

You didn't mention a year or span of years, you mentioned a coach.  Your implication was pretty clear.

[bennyl08]

You didn't mention a year or span of years, you mentioned a coach.  Your implication was pretty clear.

That is how we break down eras in sports. By the head coach at the time. Yes, my implication was clear, to compare the NFL draft picks between various HC eras, though the pre-done data only went back to 2006. I also explicitly mentioned spans of years when talking about sources of errors by way of a coach facing players that may not be drafted to the NFL for another couple years.

If you want to play "gotcha", it helps if you actually "get'em"

[Pork Twain]

alabama is stronger now than then. The rest. Not so much.

No, all of it is.  It is posts like this one that remind some just post opinion as fact, without knowing the difference

[DLUXHOG]

alabama is stronger now than then. The rest. Not so much.

Not sure if you're serious..... I hope not ...

[RazorWest]

I don't think you can base the strength of the conference on a nominal difference in draft picks per conference, but I do think the data is interesting.  thanks for putting it together.  One thing to note though is the difference in number of overall draft picks per year due to compensatory picks.  This can make the total number drafted change somewhat dramatically from year to year.