Time for a Season Prediction (W/L)

[WizardofhOgZ]

Time to go on record with a season prediction.  Using the same simple "sum up the individual game win probabilities" model that has served me so well over the years . . .

Florida A&M                    85%
TCU                              50%
Texas A&M                     50%
NM State                       95%
@S. Carolina                   40%
@Alabama                      20%
Auburn                          35%
@ Ole Miss                     55%
Coastal Carolina              95%
@ LSU                           40%
Miss St.                         60%
Mizzou                           65%
TOTAL                                6.90

So, that comes out to 7-5 . . . (not counting Bowl) . . . which sounds about right to me anyhow.

[DeltaBoy]

7-5 minimum and 9-3 is my hope .

[DiamondHogFan]

I'll play.

Florida A&M                    99%
TCU                              50%
Texas A&M                     50%
NM State                       95%
@S. Carolina                   60%
@Alabama                      10%
Auburn                          40%
@ Ole Miss                     65%
Coastal Carolina              95%
@ LSU                           30%
Miss St.                         75%
Mizzou                           75%
TOTAL                                7.44

I see 7 wins with 2 toss ups.  The TCU/A&M/USC-E stretch (NM State in the middle) will likely determine our fate this year.  I know it's hard to determine the outcome of the season 5 games in, but those will set the tone I believe.

[GuvHog]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   60%
Texas A&M         55%
NM State            95%
@ S. Carolina      55%
@ Alabama         20%
Auburn               45%
@ Ole Miss          65%
Coastal Carolina   95%
@ LSU                 45%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               65%

Predicted record    9-3           

[onebadrubi]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   70%
Texas A&M         50%
NM State            90%
@ S. Carolina      60%
@ Alabama         5.00%
Auburn               60%
@ Ole Miss          75%
Coastal Carolina   90%
@ LSU                 50%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               65%


Predicted record    9-3           

[Deep Shoat]

I'm so sick of seeing people who are supposed to understand the game of football picking South Carolina to beat us.  It just ain't happening, barring catastrophic injury to our QB.

[hogcard1964]

FAMU                 99.999%
TCU                   55%
Texas A&M         45%
NM State            99.999%
@ S. Carolina      45%
@ Alabama         05%
Auburn               35%
@ Ole Miss          95%
Coastal Carolina   99.999%
@ LSU                 25%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               50%

7-5

[gmarv]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   70%
Texas A&M         50%
NM State            95%
@ S. Carolina      60%
@ Alabama         30%
Auburn               60%
@ Ole Miss          75%
Coastal Carolina   95%
@ LSU                 50%
Miss. State           65%
Missouri               75%


Predicted record    10-2           

[WizardofhOgZ]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   60%
Texas A&M         55%
NM State            95%
@ S. Carolina      55%
@ Alabama         20%
Auburn               45%
@ Ole Miss          65%
Coastal Carolina   95%
@ LSU                 45%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               65%

Predicted record    9-3           

Guv - you actually predict an 8-4 season - barely - using my methodology.  Number of wins is derived by summing up the individual game percentages.  In this case, your sum is 7.55.

[WizardofhOgZ]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   70%
Texas A&M         50%
NM State            90%
@ S. Carolina      60%
@ Alabama         5.00%
Auburn               60%
@ Ole Miss          75%
Coastal Carolina   90%
@ LSU                 50%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               65%


Predicted record    9-3           

Rubbi, using the same explanation I did for Guv right above, your prediction is also 8 wins (8.15 total)

[a0ashle]

I say 8-4, but looking at the schedule, we have 3-4 games that we should win by 10+, 3 games we likely lose by 10+ and 5-6 games that are all within 1 score, meaning there is thin line between W and L and translates to thin line between a bad and a good season.

I like the quote that luck is where opportunity meets preparation, our preparation will tilt luck in our favor, hopefully.

[Elvis P Hogg]

FAMU                 95%
TCU                   50
Texas A&M         45
NM State            95%
@ S. Carolina      70
@ Alabama         5
Auburn               45%
@ Ole Miss          75
Coastal Carolina   95%
@ LSU                 30
Miss. State           70
Missouri               75

7.5 total round up to 8-4

[Razorbackers]

7-5 minimum and 9-3 is my hope .

This is basically me as well, but I think 8 wins should be the floor for this team. Anything less than 8 and I'll be sad, 8 wins means we did ok. 9 is perfectly reasonable without leaning on homerism imo.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Projected percentage of a win at this point in the pre-season. As we all know, all of this is subject to change as the season progresses.

                   Ark/Opponent

Ark-FAMU:       100%/0%
Ark-TCU:         50%/50%
Ark-A&M:         54%/46%
Ark-NMSU:       90%/10%
Ark-USC:         59%/41%
Ark-ALA:         44%/56%
Ark-AUB:         53%/47%
Ark-MISS:       56%/44%
Ark-Cstl Car:    90%/10%
Ark-LSU:         48%/52%
Ark-MSU:         56%/44%
Ark-MIZ:          55%/45%

[Hogwild]

FAMU                 99%
TCU                   50%
Texas A&M         50%
NM State            99%
@ S. Carolina      50%
@ Alabama         10%
Auburn               35%
@ Ole Miss          60%
Coastal Carolina   99%
@ LSU                 35%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               75%

6 wins, 3 losses, and 3 toss ups.

[JackMcQueen]

7-5 (3-5)

Wins: FAMU, TCU, NM State, South Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Miss St, Mizzou

Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU

[Kevin]

7 regular season wins

[WizardofhOgZ]

Projected percentage of a win at this point in the pre-season. As we all know, all of this is subject to change as the season progresses.

                   Ark/Opponent

Ark-FAMU:       100%/0%
Ark-TCU:         50%/50%
Ark-A&M:         54%/46%
Ark-NMSU:       90%/10%
Ark-USC:         59%/41%
Ark-ALA:         44%/56%
Ark-AUB:         53%/47%
Ark-MISS:       56%/44%
Ark-Cstl Car:    90%/10%
Ark-LSU:         48%/52%
Ark-MSU:         56%/44%
Ark-MIZ:          55%/45%

Totals to 7.55 wins

[Hogopolis]

11-1

[WizardofhOgZ]

FAMU                 99%
TCU                   50%
Texas A&M         50%
NM State            99%
@ S. Carolina      50%
@ Alabama         10%
Auburn               35%
@ Ole Miss          60%
Coastal Carolina   99%
@ LSU                 35%
Miss. State           60%
Missouri               75%

6 wins, 3 losses, and 3 toss ups.

Totals to 7.22 wins

[hawgdavis]

Going to win em all baby.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Totals to 7.55 wins

Not necessarily, we are favored in 9 of thse 12. And I'm just listing the projected percentage of an opportunity to win.

[GunnerHawg70]

delete this post

hahahaha!!! Why bro?!?!  it seems ppl are having fun and actually putting some thought into it...

[code red]

6-6.  I predict extension of the inability to stop the run.  South Carolina and Mizzou are going to be better than folks can imagine. 

[PorkRinds]

Florida A&M                    95%
TCU                              50%
Texas A&M                     50%
NM State                       95%
@S. Carolina                   50%
@Alabama                      30%
Auburn                          35%
@ Ole Miss                     60%
Coastal Carolina              95%
@ LSU                           40%
Miss St.                         65%
Mizzou                 70%
TOTAL                         6.1 wins   

If I calculated correctly it says 6.1 wins. I do think we will do better than that though. I'd say 8 regular season wins plus a bowl.

[a0ashle]

Not necessarily, we are favored in 9 of thse 12. And I'm just listing the projected percentage of an opportunity to win.

I think favored vs not is too binary, if you say 70% chance of a win, you should be at the same time conceding that there is a near 1 in 3 chance we lose (or 30%)

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think favored vs not is too binary, if you say 70% chance of a win, you should be at the same time conceding that there is a near 1 in 3 chance we lose (or 30%)

With few exceptions (OOC games) any SEC team can beat the other. And I am in fact conceding that the other team has a chance, that is why I went to the extent to list what I saw were the percentages of opportunity to win in each game. Nothing is for certain. According to what I listed we could win 9 in my opinion. The flip side of that is that there is always the chance that we could lose those 9. Nothing any of us post on here at this point is going to be very accurate aside from listing the teams we are to play and when and where we are to play, and even that can change.

[bennyl08]

FAMU                100%
TCU                   60%
Texas A&M         45%
NM State           100%
@ S. Carolina      85%
@ Alabama         36%
Auburn               50%
@ Ole Miss          80%
Coastal Carolina   99%
@ LSU                 50%
Miss. State           77%
Missouri               68%

Season Prediction: 9-3

4% chance of going undefeated.

[WizardofhOgZ]

hahahaha!!! Why bro?!?!  it seems ppl are having fun and actually putting some thought into it...

I mistakenly re-posted something in this thread; so I deleted the one post . . . not asking to take the thread down.

[GunnerHawg70]

6-6.  I predict extension of the inability to stop the run.  South Carolina and Mizzou are going to be better than folks can imagine.

Code Red I sure hope you're wrong.  That was painful last season watching teams set records in rushing against our defense.  I believe the defense will be better partially due to you are the direct reflection of your coaching staff.  CRS was pretty laid back and passive meanwhile CPR is intense, crazy fired up energy that the boys will definitely rally around on the field.  Here's to hoping wishing praying that you're waaaaaaaay off with your 6-6 prediction and inability to stop the run.

[NuttinItUp]

12-0, SEC Championship, Playoffs --> National Championship

[GunnerHawg70]

I mistakenly re-posted something in this thread; so I deleted the one post . . . not asking to take the thread down.

Roger and good copy...I think we're all amped up and ready for some Hog Ball...good stuff!!!  woopig!!!

[Deep Shoat]

6-6.  I predict extension of the inability to stop the run.  South Carolina and Mizzou are going to be better than folks can imagine.

Based on what?

[mizzouman]

Ya'll crack me up.  You're either gonna win or lose each game.

FAMU                100%
TCU                   100%
Texas A&M         100%
NM State           100%
@ S. Carolina      100%
@ Alabama         0%
Auburn               0%
@ Ole Miss          100%
Coastal Carolina   100%
@ LSU                 0%
Miss. State           100%
Missouri               100%

9-3

[Hawgboy64]

W - Florida A&M                   
W - TCU                           
W - Texas A&M Kevin's seat is scorching                   
W - NM State                 
W - @S. Carolina                   
L - @Alabama                   
L - Auburn  a 50/50 game                   
W - @ Ole Miss                     
W - Coastal Carolina           
L - @ LSU This team is a sleeping giant, my darkhorse for the national championship                         
W - Miss St.                       
W - Mizzou  a 50/50 game 

9-3                     

[WizardofhOgZ]

With few exceptions (OOC games) any SEC team can beat the other. And I am in fact conceding that the other team has a chance, that is why I went to the extent to list what I saw were the percentages of opportunity to win in each game. Nothing is for certain. According to what I listed we could win 9 in my opinion. The flip side of that is that there is always the chance that we could lose those 9. Nothing any of us post on here at this point is going to be very accurate aside from listing the teams we are to play and when and where we are to play, and even that can change.

While you have the discretion to predict our season record to be whatever you like, however you like, the fact of the matter is that the predictive model I described and used in the OP says that the percentages you listed indicate 7.55 wins.  And it's a pretty accurate model.  You may wish to use another - that's fine.  But don't be surprised if this one is the more accurate of the two. 

It appears to be deceptively simple, but there is a LOT of solid math behind this methodology.  The key is being honest about the odds of each separate game.  Many times, I see people trying to "reverse engineer" the season record they think will happen to come up with that sum of percentages, which leads to some wild predictions for individual games.

I just try and use common sense.  Off the top, I know I'll be wrong on a game or two, and the percentages applied will never be "exact".  So, I don't get too hung up on that.

And then, I try to remember that for any team not named Alabama, road wins in the SEC over anyone are never as easy as fans tend to think they are.  So, it's rare that any road team ever gets a percentage above 60% on the road.  It happens, but not frequently.  At the same time, JUST because you're playing at home doesn't make an SEC game against a lower tier SEC team a 80% win probability.  Stated another way, I have observed that most fans of a given team (in our case, Arkansas) tend to overestimate their team's realistic chances of winning a given game more often than not, whether on the road or at home.  Also, NO game is every 100%.  Sure, the rent-a-wins SHOULD be, and I know our fans consider them so.  But you have to remember the occasional Citadels, ULM's, Appalachian State over Michigan, etc.   So anyone putting 100% knows, for sure, that they are adding some inaccuracy to the model - even if slight.

All of this said, it's just another little exercise to tide us over to the real games, and nothing to get overly serious about. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

While you have the discretion to predict our season record to be whatever you like, however you like, the fact of the matter is that the predictive model I described and used in the OP says that the percentages you listed indicate 7.55 wins.  And it's a pretty accurate model.  You may wish to use another - that's fine.  But don't be surprised if this one is the more accurate of the two. 

It appears to be deceptively simple, but there is a LOT of solid math behind this methodology.  The key is being honest about the odds of each separate game.  Many times, I see people trying to "reverse engineer" the season record they think will happen to come up with that sum of percentages, which leads to some wild predictions for individual games.

I just try and use common sense.  Off the top, I know I'll be wrong on a game or two, and the percentages applied will never be "exact".  So, I don't get too hung up on that.

And then, I try to remember that for any team not named Alabama, road wins in the SEC over anyone are never as easy as fans tend to think they are.  So, it's rare that any road team ever gets a percentage above 60% on the road.  It happens, but not frequently.  At the same time, JUST because you're playing at home doesn't make an SEC game against a lower tier SEC team a 80% win probability.  Stated another way, I have observed that most fans of a given team (in our case, Arkansas) tend to overestimate their team's realistic chances of winning a given game more often than not, whether on the road or at home.  Also, NO game is every 100%.  Sure, the rent-a-wins SHOULD be, and I know our fans consider them so.  But you have to remember the occasional Citadels, ULM's, Appalachian State over Michigan, etc.   So anyone putting 100% knows, for sure, that they are adding some inaccuracy to the model - even if slight.

All of this said, it's just another little exercise to tide us over to the real games, and nothing to get overly serious about. 

Yes, I knew what you were doing. I just view it a little differently and I agree 100% with this.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Ya'll crack me up.  You're either gonna win or lose each game.

FAMU                100%
TCU                   100%
Texas A&M         100%
NM State           100%
@ S. Carolina      100%
@ Alabama         0%
Auburn               0%
@ Ole Miss          100%
Coastal Carolina   100%
@ LSU                 0%
Miss. State           100%
Missouri               100%

9-3

You clearly do not understand the model.  First clue - NO game is 100 and/or 0 percent.  No game.

Surely you remember these games:

Troy 24, MU 14 (2004)

New Mexico 45, MU 34 (2005)

Bowling Green 51, MU 28 (2002)

Just as we remember the Citadel in 1992, and ULM a few years ago.

It happens.  Not often, but . . . it does happen occasionally. 

[Olla]

L - @ LSU This team is a sleeping giant, my darkhorse for the national championship

Lol no.

[Hawgphat]

7-5, - - - - - - - - winning one fairly early sason one we shouldn't - - - and losing two mid-to-latter season ones we shouldn't.

That's NOT my wish; - - - that's my fear.

[mizzouman]

You clearly do not understand the model.  First clue - NO game is 100 and/or 0 percent.  No game.

Surely you remember these games:

Troy 24, MU 14 (2004)

New Mexico 45, MU 34 (2005)

Bowling Green 51, MU 28 (2002)

Just as we remember the Citadel in 1992, and ULM a few years ago.

It happens.  Not often, but . . . it does happen occasionally. 

EVERY GAME is 100%/0%.  You either win or you lose.  It's that simple.  Everything else is just a waste of time.  In fact, even predicting each game at the beginning of the season is a waste of time.  Not even sure why I predicted those games. 

[PonderinHog]

EVERY GAME is 100%/0%.  You either win or you lose.  It's that simple.  Everything else is just a waste of time.  In fact, even predicting each game at the beginning of the season is a waste of time.  Not even sure why I predicted those games.

To waste time

[fullfan]

7-5 sounds about right so equals expectations.   8+ = Achieved.  6 = Disappointment.

[DiamondHogFan]

Projected percentage of a win at this point in the pre-season. As we all know, all of this is subject to change as the season progresses.

                   Ark/Opponent

Ark-FAMU:       100%/0%
Ark-TCU:         50%/50%
Ark-A&M:         54%/46%
Ark-NMSU:       90%/10%
Ark-USC:         59%/41%
Ark-ALA:         44%/56%
Ark-AUB:         53%/47%
Ark-MISS:       56%/44%
Ark-Cstl Car:    90%/10%
Ark-LSU:         48%/52%
Ark-MSU:         56%/44%
Ark-MIZ:          55%/45%

What makes you think we have only a 6% better chance of beating TCU at home than we do Bama on the road?

Not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to how you came up with the 44% chance of beating Bama on the road.  Any particular reasons behind that?  Honest curiosity of your thoughts.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What makes you think we have only a 6% better chance of beating TCU at home than we do Bama on the road?

Not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to how you came up with the 44% chance of beating Bama on the road.  Any particular reasons behind that?  Honest curiosity of your thoughts.

TCU-2nd game of the entire season, still trying to work out the kinks in the 3-4, maybe kinks in the O-Line and kinks in the new and inexperienced WR's, plus, TCU will be highly motivated and probably be gunning for us.

Alabama-6th game, more experience on both sides of the ball, things beginning to gel better, hopefully 4 or 5 wins under our belts and certainly no problem for us being mentally ready to play Alabama.

JMO

[Hogginintheville]

9-3

[Al Boarland]

7 reg season wins.

[PossumFan]

10-2. Losses to Bama and either Auburn or LSU.

[daBoar]

I think many Hogvillians are under estimating the benefit of a returning starter, fifth year senior at QB, and the benefit of a returning OL coach.  I'm expecting offensive performance to be high by mid-season and fairly good coming out of the shoot.  So, I expect the O will lead our team through a few defensive struggles as the D gels.  I'm thinking by mid-season  the Hogs will be about as good as anyone in the league.  9-3.

[RazorPiggie]

There are many toss up games. I've almost just accepted the fact that we are going to be a 7-5ish team for the rest of my life (and I'm in my early 30s). But I'll still be at the Fay games.