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Cool article on the 1st maiden to run in the KY Derby since 1998, Trojan Nation

Started by HogFanInBryant, April 28, 2016, 09:04:56 pm

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husker71

I wonder what Gallagher saw in the horse to ship him all the way from California to New York and enter a maiden in the Wood Memorial???   was it the off track that moved him up??  This is a horse that may be figuring this game out    but not on top for me

 

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: husker71 on May 01, 2016, 10:30:05 am
I wonder what Gallagher saw in the horse to ship him all the way from California to New York and enter a maiden in the Wood Memorial???   was it the off track that moved him up??  This is a horse that may be figuring this game out    but not on top for me

I doubt he wins...but dismissing him in any of the top 4 wagers would be really dumb in my opinion.

cbhawg03

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on May 01, 2016, 10:40:49 am
I doubt he wins...but dismissing him in any of the top 4 wagers would be really dumb in my opinion.

That's what I've thought about including any runner from the Wood outside Shagaf, really dumb in to include any of them in top 4 wagers. Shagaf gets a pass for seeming to dislike the off track.

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: cbhawg03 on May 01, 2016, 03:00:45 pm
That's what I've thought about including any runner from the Wood outside Shagaf, really dumb in to include any of them in top 4 wagers. Shagaf gets a pass for seeming to dislike the off track.

My point is the upside...he's a freaking maiden, if he moves forward any...watch out!  He could bounce but he could also run 2nd at 60-1...or geez even win...remember Mine That Bird?

cbhawg03

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on May 01, 2016, 03:49:38 pm
My point is the upside...he's a freaking maiden, if he moves forward any...watch out!  He could bounce but he could also run 2nd at 60-1...or geez even win...remember Mine That Bird?

The problem is how slow they went. We could have been blind folded and picked a group from a Jenny Craigh meeting to run a relay race that could have ran that time. I get it was an off track, but that slow? No way off track made the time that slow. Especially considering early fractions weren't as slow.

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: cbhawg03 on May 01, 2016, 04:35:26 pm
The problem is how slow they went. We could have been blind folded and picked a group from a Jenny Craigh meeting to run a relay race that could have ran that time. I get it was an off track, but that slow? No way off track made the time that slow. Especially considering early fractions weren't as slow.

It's still a grade 1 NYRA and can't be dismissed as an ungraded stakes.  We'll know in less than a week.

cbhawg03

I will more than likely key Nyquist and Creator. Creator underneath only and Nyquist in all three spots with all on top. Something alone the lines of Nyqust / creator / all, Nyqust / all / creator and all / Nyqust creator / Nyqust creator

Something alone those lines is what I'm thinking as of now.

cbhawg03

Do think it can be narrowed down, but will admit don't really trust any of them. I would exclude Destin, anything from Spiral, anything from Wood Memorial, also would exclude Whitmore. I would exclude all those from Win position but keep underneath.

cbhawg03

Would look at Jon White's theory as well. His theory will almost always give you the winner, granted you have to pick the right horse from the group that qualify, but at least narrows it down for you.


HogFanInBryant

I hope he is wrong, I'm on Destin and not getting off!  Only concern is the layoff but I've got faith there is a method to their madness. 

cbhawg03

Quote from: HogFanInBryant on May 01, 2016, 07:52:00 pm
I hope he is wrong, I'm on Destin and not getting off!  Only concern is the layoff but I've got faith there is a method to their madness.

Pretty sure horses are 0-fer when they haven't ran 9F before the derby. Pretty sure that Destin falls into the group

 

HogFanInBryant

Quote from: cbhawg03 on May 01, 2016, 08:30:26 pm
Pretty sure horses are 0-fer when they haven't ran 9F before the derby. Pretty sure that Destin falls into the group

Giant's Causeway will cover the distance ?'s

cbhawg03

It's not a distance concern is that they haven't even ran 9F prior to running 10F.  It has nothing to do with pedigree and everything to do with experience of going at least 9F prior to Derby. Destin missed those preps at 9F

cbhawg03

The previous 65 winners all races 9F before going 10F, excludes Destin.

43 of last 45 winners had prior Derby mounts, excludes Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Suddenbreakingnews and Tom's Ready

46 of last 48 winners won as a 2 year old, excludes Creator, Majesto, My Man Sam and Trojan Nation.

69 of last 70 winners faced 10+ field size before running in Derby, AP was the only winner not to face more than 10, excludes Destin and Outwork


cbhawg03

Exaggerator, Mo Tom and Whitmore. 

Based on Jon White system, took into account horses with 2 strikes, the above stats and one other system, the only horses with a chance to win are Exaggerator, Mo Tom and Whitmore.  I've made my thoughts on Whitmore pretty clear, as I just don't think he has a chance at all.  Personally, I would include Nyquist and toss Whitmore regardless just because I think Nyquist could be head and shoulders better than anybody else in the group, just not AP head and shoulders better.